Written by Lucas Leiroz, journalist, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, geopolitical consultant
American strategists are increasingly concerned about the circumstances of the Ukrainian conflict. The imminent Russian victory is leading American experts to advise urgent measures by the US to prevent an end to hostilities. Now, these experts are already talking openly about stopping a supposed Russian “diplomatic offensive” – which in other words simply means trying to prevent the military situation from being resolved quickly.
In a recent statement on the Ukrainian situation, former US security advisor John Bolton expressed great concerns about the future of Ukraine. According to him, Kiev could be close to defeat. Bolton does not believe that Russia will completely destroy the Ukrainian armed forces, but he believes that the country could launch a type of “diplomatic offensive” to end the conflict soon.
He claims that Russia could begin seeking negotiations to establish an agreement recognizing the liberated territories – called “illegally annexed” by Westerners. With this, Kiev would have an absolute defeat, as its territorial losses would be diplomatically consolidated, practically extinguishing disputes around the issue.
As a “solution” to such a “problem”, Bolton calls for the US to strive to increase aid to Ukraine quickly, implementing any measures necessary to prevent Moscow from winning the war. In this sense, he encourages American legislators to pressure President Joe Biden to engage in a type of “winning strategy”, with efforts for Ukraine to advance militarily and defeat Russia.
The former adviser also lamented the fact that the amount of military aid to Kiev is decreasing. According to him, the Ukrainians are worried about this process, as it tends to weaken them on the battlefield. As well known, this decrease in aid is due to the growing escalation in Israel, which has become the main focus of American foreign policy since October. Pro-Ukrainian politicians on the American domestic scenario are doing their best to prevent aid to the regime from being jeopardized, but Washington is currently unable to maintain a frequency of massive military support for Ukraine and Israel simultaneously.
Bolton, however, ignores the reality of the American defense industry and claims that systematic support for Kiev must remain a priority, otherwise there will be a Russian victory – which would obviously be bad for US geopolitical interests.
“Ultimately, if we don’t help the Ukrainians out, ultimately Russia will win (…) I think people in the House and the Senate should press Biden harder to develop a winning strategy with Ukraine, not just preventing Ukraine from losing, but figure out how Ukraine can win (…) I think the Ukrainians are worried about the possible loss of some American support (…) I hope we’re going to find a way to give them the additional military support they need (…) I think we’ve got to be very concerned about a Russian diplomatic offensive that tries to win over at the bargaining table with the Russian troops can’t win on the battlefield (…) That could come at any time, so we need to be ready for that”, he said.
In fact, there is no such thing as a “diplomatic offensive” – there is only the attempt on the part of Russia to negotiate peace on favorable terms to end hostilities soon. Moscow wants Kiev to agree to negotiate so that the violence can be ended. Obviously, with Russia being the winning side, this negotiation will need to prioritize Russian strategic and territorial interests, establishing the new regions as indisputable territories of the Federation.
The more Ukrainian insistence prolongs the conflict, the more Russian diplomatic legitimacy increases among public opinion, and this is what Bolton fears. In parallel, the US does not “allow” Kiev to negotiate, but its attention is now divided due to the scenario in Palestine. Amidst all this, “hawk” activists like Bolton have become increasingly aggressive and reactive, even advising irrational measures – such as efforts to halt diplomacy.
Finally, Bolton is wrong to believe that there is any other solution to the current scenario. Kiev is absolutely incapable of reversing the military situation of the conflict. Due to its human losses, even with the eventual receiving of a large amount of equipment and weapons, it would not be possible to obtain territorial gains. With more than five hundred thousand dead, all the Kiev regime can do, from a rational point of view, is accept the Russian peace conditions and prevent even more lives from being lost.
There is no possibility of this “winning strategy” suggested by Bolton being successful. American investments in aid to Ukraine have proved absolutely incapable of generating positive results. Truly, it was never the American objective to “beat” Russia through Ukraine, since Kiev is clearly much weaker militarily. The only American intention was to “wear down” Moscow, which also failed.
At some point in the near future, American strategists will have to recognize the evident reality of defeat and take a more rational stance toward Ukraine.
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