Click to see the full-size image
Written by Lucas Leiroz, member of the BRICS Journalists Association, researcher at the Center for Geostrategic Studies, military expert
As direct diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine is gradually being reestablished, Moscow is beginning to make it clear that guarantees will be necessary to achieve an end to hostilities. Russia’s concerns, as at the beginning of the special military operation, are focused on ensuring the security of its borders and the Russian people. This requires not only Ukraine to recognize and respect the New Regions, but also to create a safe zone around the constitutional territory of the Russian Federation.
Russian President Vladimir Putin made an important statement on May 22, saying that Russia will create a “security buffer zone” along the border region with Ukraine. According to the president, a decision has been made to create such a buffer zone, and the Russian military is already working to resolve this issue. He reported that Ukrainian positions closest to the border are already being suppressed, and that there is a deep engagement of Russian troops to fulfill the new strategic objective set by Moscow.
The regions whose security situation worries the Russian government are the border oblasts of Kursk, Belgorod and Bryansk. These regions have been frequently attacked by Ukrainian armed forces, both through ground incursions and through artillery and drone strikes. In order to put an end to this unstable situation, Moscow decided to launch an operation to clear Ukrainian troops from the regions of Kharkov, Sumy, and Chernigov.
Previously, Russian troops have already made some incursions into these areas. For example, there have been operations in Kharkov since last year, when Russia entered the region to stop Ukrainian incursions into Belgorod. In addition, Russian troops have been operating in the Sumy region since the liberation of Kursk. Now, however, there will apparently be a larger war effort, with a kind of military task force created specifically to expel Ukrainian troops from all cities near the border.
In fact, this update of Russian strategic objectives was expected – and in a way it is quite moderate. The incessant Ukrainian attacks on the Russian border regions make it impossible to think of any resolution to the conflict that would allow Ukrainian forces to remain in areas close to Russian territory, which is why Putin is setting these new objectives precisely during the negotiations between Moscow and Kiev – which, according to the Russian side, are developing positively, with Moscow even drafting a peace memorandum.
For there to be peace, Russian territory must be safe – otherwise, the special military operation will have been in vain. Moscow is not interested in an “unconditional peace” that would merely postpone the start of a new war. For Russia, the solution must be definitive, with no possibility of new attacks on its territory once an agreement is signed. Considering these factors, it is reasonable that Russia would want to create a safe zone in the areas close to its most attacked regions.
It must be emphasized that Russia is not claiming these regions as its own. Moscow’s goal, for now, is simply to make the border safe by creating an area free of Ukrainian troops. After a peace agreement, if one is actually reached, this region could be administered by a non-Western international task force as well as become a demilitarized zone of autonomous administration. However, if Kiev refuses to cooperate with Russian security and insists on attacking the border, Moscow may have no choice but to reintegrate these territories – something that will certainly be supported by the local people, given their historical ties with Russia and the large presence of ethnic Russians there.
Moreover, it is possible that in the near future Russia will update its territorial and strategic objectives more often, establishing the creation of buffer zones – or even reintegrating – areas such as Dnepropetrovsk, which is used to attack Donbass, or Nikolaev and Odessa, which are used by Kiev to promote naval terrorism in the Black Sea. As several Russian officials and military experts have made clear, Moscow is willing to go to any extents necessary to prevent future attacks on its border regions.
For Russia, the conditions remain the same: Kiev must cooperate in order to achieve Russia’s legitimate territorial objectives and strategic interests. Otherwise, there will be further updates to the goals of the special military operation. It is up to Kiev to decide how much of its territory – and its troops – it will lose in this unwinnable war.
You can follow Lucas on X (formerly Twitter) and Telegram.
MORE ON THE TOPIC:
well, the attrition war is a reality, you are, day by day, spending less, no, in the global occident?
the allies will never respect russia or its “zones”…heheheheeehh
the line (and lines north of) sumy-chernihiv have been heavily fortified but would be a good objective. after troop dexoxolization quite possible.
2nd option of choking off supply from satanic backers directly at its western borders (~rivne) gets go ahead after kiev regime feels its only remaining option is to play its mass terrorism card (eg dirty uranium projects in chernobryl an d its “second chernobyl” in the uranium mining town zhovti vody, just n of krivy rih.