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ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE
The humanitarian ceasefire between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces started in the Nagorno-Karabakh region at 12:00 local time on October 10. The ceasefire deal was reached by the Azerbaijani and Armenian sides following long talks in Moscow a day ago. Russia played a key role in forcing the sides to accept the new ceasefire regime.
The negotiations involved Armenia’s Foreign Minister Zohrab Mnatsakanyan and his Azerbaijani counterpart Jeyhun Bayramov, and were mediated by Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. Azerbaijan and Armenia also formally agreed to begin substantive negotiations of a peaceful settlement of a military conflict over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh that erupted on September 27. The talks will be mediated by the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe’s Minsk Group of international negotiators.
Meanwhile, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that the first phase of the military operation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region is completed. According to him, the prospects of peace depend on the readiness of Armenia to accept the fact that these territories do not belong to it.
“The military unit, or its first part, has come to an end. Now we have reached a political settlement that will ensure that we reach the end and get what rightfully belongs to us,” Aliyev said.
For a peaceful solution to the conflict, Azerbaijan and Armenia will sit down at the negotiating table with the support of the OSCE Minsk Group. The Azerbaijani side is allegedly ready to do this “tomorrow”. Just a few days ago, the Azerbaijani leadership fiercely supported by Turkey was declaring that it was aiming to solve the Karabakh question by military means at almost any cost. Nonetheless, thanks to Russian diplomatic efforts (and apparently something else), this posture changed in a single day.
Click to see the full-size image
According to Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, Russia has demonstrated a balanced and neutral position during the escalation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone.
“Russia is our neighbor, with whom we have strategic relations. Russia has demonstrated a balanced approach, has maintained neutrality during the escalation period,” Bayramov said at a press conference on October 10.
The position of Turkey, the main ally of Azerbaijan and the instigator of the current Armenian-Azerbaijani war, is more aggressive. The Turkish Defense Ministry said that Armenia must surrender the Azerbaijani territories that it controls.
“Azerbaijani Army acted heroically and achieved great triumphs to liberate its lands that were occupied. Armenia must now surrender the lands that it has occupied to their rightful owner,” the defese ministry said in a tweet. “Until then, we will continue to stand by our Azerbaijani Turkish brothers and sisters.”
Despite the ceasefire agree and the diplomatic decision to return to negotiations, the situation on the contact line remains complicated.
The Armenian Defense Ministry claimed that Azerbaijan launched an offensive into Nagorno-Karabakh five minutes after the ceasefire had been entered into. Armenia also reported that Azerbaijani forces shelled several civilian areas, including the town of Hadrut. In own turn, the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry reported that “despite the ceasefire agreement” Armenia shelled several Azerbaijani regions. Local sources also report the continuation of artillery duels and sporadic firefights. Expectedly, both sides officially deny that they violate the ceasefire and blame each other.
After the exchange of accusations, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said that his country does not rule out the resumption of hostilities if Armenia “continues to imitate the negotiation process.”
“Armenia must fulfill its obligations, otherwise we do not rule out the resumption of hostilities. By the way, it is worth noting that Armenia is already violating its obligations – hostilities are ongoing on despite the ceasefire,” Bayramov said.
In turn, the aide to the President of Azerbaijan, Hikmet Hajiyev, noted that the military actions in Karabakh dealt a serious blow to the Armenian economy. According to him, the military operation of the Azerbaijani army was directly aimed at achieving this goal.
Click to see the full-size image
Regardless the propaganda claims of the sides, the Azerbaijani military achieved notable progress and dealt a painful blow to Armenian forces. The main reason of this tactical success was the air dominance and the significant advantage in manpower and heavy weapons.
As of October 10 evening, no side are conducting active offensive operations. Therefore, the ceasefire can be considered as mostly working. At the same time, the situation in the region still has chances to explode once again. Azerbaijan, supported by Turkey, will now try to secure its current positions in the contested region on the diplomatic level and try to force Armenia to withdraw its forces from the entire Nagorno-Karabakh region. While the first goal will be easily achieved (by the argument of force), the second one will likely be rejected by Yerevan. As to the appeals of the Armenian government to the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the so-called international community for a direct help in the war against Azerbaijan, they will not likely help. Armenia itself has not initiated the process of the official integration of it into Armenia as a part of the Armenian state and not even recognized the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic as an independent state. Armenia has no legal reasons to claim that its territory came under attack.
Thus, the Azerbaijani-Turkish bloc still has an upper hand in the military and diplomatic standoff over the region exploiting the complicated situation in which Armenia appeared thanks to years of anti-Russian and pro-Western policies provided by its governments.
In these conditions, Russia remains the only guarantor of the Armenian sovereignty and territorial integrity that prevents Azerbaijan and Turkey from a direct attack on Armenian sovereign borders. As to the situation in Karabakh, Moscow is also not interested in the further destabilization of the region and the increase of presence of radical elements there. Thus, it will employ its diplomatic influence to froze the conflict and force the sides to return to searching a diplomatic solution of it. Nonetheless, in the event of the non-constructive position of Armenia, Yerevan should not count on the direct Russian military intervention to support its interests. On the other hand, actions of Azerbaijan and Turkey that may lead to the turning of the region into a new hotbed of terrorism by the deployment of radical militants there or attempts of ethnic cleansing of Armenian population could also face a direct or indirect Russian military response. For Russia, the increasing presence of al-Qaeda-linked terrorists near its borders is the red line that cannot be tolerated. As to the less radical scenario, Armenia, in the event of a more constructive position in its foreign policy, may count on the increase of Russian military supplies and non-direct Russian involvement aimed at restoring the status quo in Karabakh and prevention of the resumption of the war.
No victory for Russia as SF said.
Both Armenia and Azerbaijan want to keep Russia channel open as an option. They want Russia to save face for achieving something. Both also want paint a “good guy” face to the rest of the world that they still seek peace. That will please US, France and all other countries.
But on the ground, nothing really changes. Ceasefire has not materialized. Even if ceasefire does happen, it will just give both sides some time to re-group, repair and prepare for more war. We have seen so many cease fire concluded and broken in a few days.
Actual ceasefire would benefit Azerbaijan much more to Armenia. Even if we give Armenia one whole month, Armenia still can’t add many people, tanks, radars and more ammunitions. Whatever they get from Iran are just regular stuff. Even if Iran wants to throw its weight behind Armenia, it still only limited ability to offer. Also the border area between Iran and Armenia are domiciled by Azeris.
It is very likely within one month, Azeri army can reach the outskirt of Stepanakert. Then they are going to pause and force Artskins to negotiate a withdrawal.
Wishful thinking, Russia is supplying its strategic ally, Armenia, by air-shipments via the Caspian Sea and then Iran.
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That is right.
correct; however 2 million Azeris and 2 million Armenians live in Russia….1 is the rock star Louna (although she doesn’t speak Armenian)…Russia is neutral despite the CTSO agreement
She seems like a nice girl! Well, sort of!
it’s a beautiful thing
Got new manual for propaganda from Ankara, pity spammer?)
Idiot doesn’t deserve your atention.
As I said before, it’s a shitshow of fake peace and real violence. Russia can’t broker peace as long as the Kremlin seeks to adapt Russian foreign policy with the aim of being accepted as an “equal partner” able to do business as peers of the globalist Ziocorporate terrorists, there’s nothing difficult to understand about it once partisan bullshit is removed from the equation.
From today,
“No end in sight? Armenia & Azerbaijan accuse each other of violations, minutes after Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire supposed to begin” https://www.rt.com/russia/503141-karabakh-shelling-truce-conflict/
yea if putin and russian govt continue to do this bullshit of being peers with the globalist terrorists it will be the end of them
Russia with a brilliant victory? Should be a joke or?
It is SF. You know.
Russian military-industrial complex are the true winner….AZ only have retake one city and it is verey difficult to retake all NK.
They will be all destroyed when the battles starts at the mountains
SF’s conclusion is terribly wrong. It clearly overstated the “threat” of external radical Muslim “terrorists”.
Even if there are indeed some Syrian fighters on the Azeri side, there are also many foreign fighters on Armenia side. There are many reports of “volunteers” going to fight for Armenia and N-K.
There have not been any reports or video of foreign “radical fighters” fighting in N-K, like they did in Syria Afrin. So their “roles” are very limited. This is clearly the plot of Russia trying to exaggerate this thread and use this as an excuse to maintain a foothold in the region. Azerbaijan and Turkey did not give Russia the excuse.
If Russia ever uses “radical Muslim” fighter as an excuse and get involved, we’ll see the more direct involvement of Turkey. This will be like another Syria and Libya. Russia does not want to see that happens.
So the best option for Russia is to see Armenia backing down and negotiate something for N-K. Russia has very limited options.
In these conditions, Russia remains the only guarantor of the Armenian sovereignty and territorial integrity that prevents Azerbaijan and Turkey from a direct attack on Armenian sovereign borders. As to the situation in Karabakh, Moscow is also not interested in the further destabilization of the region and the increase of presence of radical elements there. Thus, it will employ its diplomatic influence to froze the conflict and force the sides to return to searching a diplomatic solution of it. Nonetheless, in the event of the non-constructive position of Armenia, Yerevan should not count on the direct Russian military intervention to support its interests. On the other hand, actions of Azerbaijan and Turkey that may lead to the turning of the region into a new hotbed of terrorism by the deployment of radical militants there or attempts of ethnic cleansing of Armenian population could also face a direct or indirect Russian military response. For Russia, the increasing presence of al-Qaeda-linked terrorists near its borders is the red line that cannot be tolerated. As to the less radical scenario, Armenia, in the event of a more constructive position in its foreign policy, may count on the increase of Russian military supplies and non-direct Russian involvement aimed at restoring the status quo in Karabakh and prevention of the resumption of the war.
Russia is not worried about Turkey, Russia is worried about NATO, and Erdogan is doing a good job burning bridges with them… Without the WEST, Turkey would disappear quickly..
Your clearly down understand this theater of war. Oh and good on you to underestimate the other side. Shows how savvy you are?
Based on Ottoman history they were able to fight alone, but the West needed allies to defeat Turkey and Islamic countries.
Russia won all wars against Ottomans, they just lost the crimean war because the WEST protected them… Without the West, Turkey is nothing!!!
would that be Ottoman genocidal history or Ottoman mongols invading Christendom from the Mongolian steppes history? Ottomans were dissolved at Treaty of Severs, only the bolshevik jews kept you alive and your donmeh Attaturk. But by the 100th anniversary it will be set right..back to the Uighurs for you and take your khazar fake jews with you. Let the Chinese put you in your place or else underground
Most of the drone videos so far have been on the hits on Armenian armor, artillery and air defense. Only few of them show the hits on Armenian personnel. But the latest drone video on hitting Artskin military men is very devastating. We see clearly that those men heard the sound of air plane and tried to hide in the trench. But bomb penetrate directly into the trench and killed most of the men. It is just like the ATGM video showing the hits on Assad men.
The second stage of the war will be more on hitting Artskin soldiers. This will cripple its ability to wage war and its defense ability. Azerbaijan will probably only show some of them. The drone hits are so brutal and they do not want to show so many of them. Those hits will clearly demoralize the Artskin men.
We’ll see faster progress of Azeri army during the second stage. Their drone attack ability has not been reduced. But Artskin defense ability has been compromised.
Pressure will be higher in Armenia for Parshinyan to negotiate something to avoid more bloodshed. Artskins are like sitting ducks and getting slaughtered from the sky.
Armenia won the last NK war..and there were 20.000 dead!…Armenia have lost no more than 300 or 400 soldiers…..if they receive supply from Russia and Iran…be sure that AZ cannot win the war!
There were 30 years ago Armenia won because Russia supported them, but not today. Let’s see today how big their mouths are to tell the world that the Armenian army will defeat Azerbaijan.
without the jews and turks the war would be over and we would be in Baku.. wait we will deal with them soon with Greeks, Arabs, Egyptians, Kurds, Syrians, Lybians, Assyrians, Yezidi and the list go on and on goat fucker. oh I forgot to mention the most important factor .. the Christian God will destroy your pedophilia idol and ….NEWSFLASH the only thing waiting for you in “paradise” is a lake of fire.
Russia/Sovjet was the creatore of this cluster f…. from the begining, SF and now tries to sound as an one whom can create peace, when we know the Azeri dicktator and Putin is buddys, huh, and somehow, over at Faker, its aOkay to slaughter NKs because of an Armenian politicians, you gotta be bloody kidding.
Again, false premisses creates the fertail ground for false realitys and even more fals consents, the narrative about Azeris been the victim stinks like the Palestinian/ISISraeli conflict, where by some f…. reason the exuses is building up to cresendo when it comes to exuse the Azeris war crimes and the fact they started this war, on premisses that are absolutelly 100& false, and yet, the blame is put squarly on the Armenians, I thought I would never read this low level of bullshit again, this reaks of Mofo whom is somehow and I wounder how many of you are fake, all of you, I dont side with anyone, except for the truh, and humanity, this attack from the western backed erDOGans scums and the Azeri rat packs are all their fault, but somehow, regardeless of what ever international rules says about self-gov. referendums, etc you f… name it, everything of this, even when I could name an hell of an lot of issues, from Ukrainas two republics etc you Mofo dont even tuch that, the whining about Azeris been chased out of NK is also peculiare when they cant come up with anything to back their claims but Faker have no problems with echoing that falsification of history, and that, if to be anykind of credible have to be backed by something, they have nothing, but the issue about the pogroms, in Azeri isnt even mentioned, insted they contiue with this false premisse as in the Palestina ISISrael conflict, drools something about “both parts have to take the blame” etc, makes me wanna f…. puke.
I find you and the other Russian hurrah patriots increasingly detached from reality, imposing flatout false dicthonomy, and like the Palestinians, Hamas is the problem and since they fight the Jews, the Palestinians are puniched collectivly, do you Mofo really think, before you scumbags write anything, and thinks we are bloody idiots. Putin/Russia is going to loose on this, because of the total corruption of the Russian Gov, they threw Armenia under the buss, period, and you f…. are coluding, just like the west is against the Palestinians, their rethoric sounds credible, but isnt even near credible and factual because of the massive influx of lies, and the imposing of false history. Some of this rotten sites is desperate to drool this away, claims some of us are Russophobians, urg… Yeah, like White supremacists, why not throw in Nazis, while we are at that, right, Faker. Because Putin is untuchable, and saitly infallible, and any critic is done by infidels, apostats, arent we.
Russia Gov isnt trustwurth at all, lost it in Seriba, and crached the war in Syria, two times, Putin did it, both times and now He handles an genoice to the Turds and their hengmen on Azerbaijan. There was One reason I dont debate military stategies, because I was horrifyed by the Russian RAF in Syria, I couldnt belive my eyes and ears, you dont to that kind of mistakes without another reason etirly, dont think we are amatures, scumbags, and even back then, you refused to see, just like in this conflict, you denies reality and facts, you are the real enemy of Mother Russia, the ones whom let the gate wide open, like Putin, to the Ottomaniacs and the scums of this earth ISISrael.
And you f…. drools something about moral, huh. If you like the Azeri drone porn, well, we may speak again in some months, and see if it did anything, at all.
peace
ask the amerikans for help—Russians are fully aware of the anti Russian protests in Yerevan….and the Israelis r fully aware of the anti-semitic Armenian racism
The 4th Reich ZioNazis are not semites, so there goes your point! Mostly AshkaNazi Khazari Russian backwater scum occupying Palestinian Semetic lands! Go figure!
socialize w seven morons–u can make 8
you are not deceiving anybody here jew.. this ain’t MSM, Fox, NYT, Wapo, economist, hollywood, NY or proudly gay capital of the world Tel Aviv, no it is full of people who read, think, know and are not deceived by your sports, porn, gossip or entertainment opiates.. try somewhere else.. like the American or British political systems
oooo the anti- semitic bomb.. looks like cechas is a tribesman. may I ask khazar, donmeh, askenazi or just garden variety satanist mother fucker
The ceasefire won’t hold. Both sides are scrambling to resupply their inventories.
Putin castled king side.
Although a time out favors the side without momentum, and thus as between the Azeris and the Armenians, Armenia benefits most, the real beneficiary is Russia. It needs a line of control frozen, ala Sirte or Hwy 4. These LC’s freeze Turkey expansion and spare Russia having to throw down.
If hostilities resume and the Azerbaijanis reassert their advantage, Putin may have to take another course, a course of action, but he has not moved his rook into attack mode (queen side), so action is the last thing he seeks.
As to fearing Islamic militants in his neighborhood, that horse left the barn years ago. Funny how history repeats itself. During the first Cold War the USA had to accepts dmz’s around the globe as it sought to freeze Russian client states’ expansion. Now Russia finds itself having to settle for, in effect, DMZ’s or frozen lines of control in the face of Turk expansion.
And where Is Iran vis a vis its Shia neighbor. Like Russia it gains nothing by continued hostilities but risks unrest amongst it native Azeris if its passive assistance to Armenia via accommodating Russian rearmament continues.
If Putin can keep the line of control frozen it is a win for Russia, and Iran, but Turkey holds the keys. If Turkey insists hostilities resume if N-K is not entirely revived by Azerbaijan, hostilities will resume and Russia will have some decisions to make.
Putin is no chess player. Maybe checkers is his game?
Lavrov: Look guys, we have a new prototype bomb and we want to test it. Our scientists say it can unite Caspian with Black sea. But I told them to hold on, so I ask you first, what you think about bombs, do you like them? Now shake hands.
“Armenia itself has not initiated the process of the official integration of it into Armenia as a part of the Armenian state and not even recognized the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic as an independent state.” Te me this just means that Armenia doesn’t want to win, they just want to survive while putting up a show to save face. They will accept eventual defeat but make a show about having done a heroic fight against all odds and paint it as not being a defeat.
this is mainly an embarrassment for turkey– they r not consulted by Minsk group….
The fact that both sides went to Moscow, is the only clear signal as to what is going on here. Whatever was presented by Russia in the sessions I would think were out of the public eye, landed like a ton of bricks on each side. The cards held by Russia, are remaining close to the vest. The reality is, whatever Russia wants, it could plow the whole place in hours. But, as true to form, they prefer to serve desert and chat insted of lighting things on fire, until there is no other choice. Need and example? Syria. Everybody thought it was all over for Assad on September 30, 2015. Now look at the map of the entire area. Quite different today.
I still don´t have a clue as to what is going to happen, other than Turkey has reached and passed it´s high water mark in the conflict. The meeting in Russia made that 100% crystal clear. My take all. Enjoy your weekend.
It is all about depleting US’ finances for Russia. They are creating quagmires everywhere around the world, for the US to fall into the trap.
And the moronic yankees don’t even understand this simple fact.
It’s the other way around, remember the Yankees can print unlimited amounts of money to fund their endeavors. The Russians are still linked to the dollar system which limits their abilities.
Is the problem resolved, or per the saying — is the can just simply being kicked down the road? If this problem isn’t resolved now, then the possibility of another war later on is a certainty.
Russia’s military industrial complex does not know how to market themselves. It is not good for business when videos keep popping around showing Pansir/S300s being blown to pieces. Or the locations they are supposed to protect being bombed to oblivion like that.
I am sure its also a matter of Rusian technology to produce cheep and well. No matter what You write I can only see the system among the best in the world and it has an upgrade too.
And an important thing is, that in war You should learn to accept that the enemy make bad products as well as their counterstrikes failes too.
Your version of bombed to “Bolivia” has to do with, You probatly in the Russian-Arabian style are manipulated to know Your things are the best as well as “Ours” in the “wests” are bad.
Some realisme here says, that covering an area well will need many of those missiles as well as several small ones as well as even old fashion artillery.
And the answer to that much better cover will make the enemy send in more thing to hit “Bolivia” at the same time.
Outgunning is not as easy as someone here think.
Lavrov show them how they think Caucaus is since they left https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fdc77c624ac0930dad4f01d48a13f671d079d98f19887750a1845d1ce228570a.jpg
….and the winner is…Russia!
For once in a lifetime following my advice and what happened? Peace!
Russian diplomacy only seems to make frozen wars around and close to their borders. In my opinion this is a failed policy. It just pushes things down the road when they will become worse.
Diplomacy is a great thing when you have the security capabilities to support it. That’s how I approach ET/ED/non conventional lifeform contact work.
I’m upgrading my 12 gauge to luminous night sights to improve targeting in low light conditions. And proceeding with an ammunition inventory build to supplement the 400 rounds of armor piercing ammunition that I bought for it.
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.30-06, 12 gauge set up for security work.
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