Original by Yuriy “yurasumy” Podolyaka published at Naspravdi; translation from Russian by J.Hawk
During the initial phase of the battle at Avdeyevka, the UAF were able to launch a swift and surprise attack and force back NAF forces from their positions near the Yasinovataya cloverleaf. What happened?
New UAF tactics
One should first of note note that the Kiev regime forces are using new tactics. Each operation is preceded by lengthy preparation (and there is no shortage of time and the front line is static). Then a surprise attack using forces ranging from a platoon to a company. If successful, consolidation on seized positions then defense. If the factor of surprise is lost, immediate retreat to original positions.
Why this worked now and not before
In 2014-15, well organized intelligence was of great help to the Donbass militia and hampered the Kiev regime forces. The local population loyal to the Republics betrayed its “liberators” in any way it could. Now the situation is different.
You may remember that during the fall of 2016 the SBU conducted a total sweep of the territory close to the front line to identify “Republic spies.” Thousands of individuals underwent filtration, dozens were arrested then exchanged for captured UAF soldiers. NAF intelligence thus lost many of its sources and now it can’t provide timely warnings when the enemy is preparing an offensive operation.
Kiev aims
1. Maintaining tension along the line of separation in order to convince the West Minsk Agreements are impossible to implement. This is how the regime is trying to back out of a political dead end because implementing the Minsk Agreements would result in being overthrown. Or even in loss of freedom, since many of them would find themselves on trial.
2. Improving the tactical situation and forcing the NAF to launch counterattacks which will be presented to the “world” as Russian acts of aggression which in turn complicates Russia’s position during its negotiations with Europe and the US.
3. Another major factor is building up the fighting spirit of own forces. They are tired of going from defeat to defeat. They need a tiny, but nevertheless a victory. A capture of some checkpoint, be it near Svetlodarsk or Yasinovataya, at the cost of dozens of lives of own soldiers is instantly blown up by the Ukrainian media into a mega-victory.
And this will continue until Kiev forces fall into yet another trap, into yet another encirclement.
But perhaps by that point Washington will angrily call Kiev to order. If presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump agree on the future of Ukraine.
Well, when one side is focused on defense only, and the other can choose where and when to attack then eventually the attacker will succeed somewhere, it’s simply inevitable. Hopefully NAF will inflict serious losses on ukronazis, but you can’t win the war by defending only.
Agreed. Russia should payroll, thru clandestine channels, thousands of mercenaries to assist NAF and take more territory. Each incursion by Kiev results in another offensive attack. In the end, someone’s neck will be hanging from a noose and better it be Porky and Co.
The problem is not the manpower or materials, the problem is the political situation.
Why do they succeed? Because Russia-the Kremlin-is unwilling to upset its “western partners”. The big joke of an army that the Kiev forces are, could be swept easily, had it not been for pathetic political maneuvering that is costing lives of innocents.
Putin, Hitman in Chief Dispatching the Key Heroes and Best Leaders of Donbass via His Thugs in order to Make Ukraine Safe for Anti-Russian Fascism and to Fulfill His Minsk Obligations: Part of the Capitulation Act http://vladimirsuchan.blogspot.dk/
“Minsk Agreements” are a betrayal of DPR and LPR. Anyone who can read will see that. And Trump and Putin will never really agree on Ukraine unless one of the positions is severely weakened.
Minsk aims a federal state of autonomous regions. Which can later “legally” chose their status, for instance stepping out. France and Germany accepted it because Poland hopes to grab Lvov, Rivne or even Ivano-Frankovsk (and Romania the Transcarpathia).
So I wouldn’t say it’s a “betrayal” but you’re right that it is a rather slow process of helping the Novorrussian peoples to achieve self-determination. It would be easier to recognize the new republics right away but, then again, there’s the political and diplomatic aspects to deal with.