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NOVEMBER 2024

New Year’s Sitrep: The End of the Tunnel?

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New Year's Sitrep: The End of the Tunnel?

Illustrative Image

Is the war across the sea?

Is the war behind the sky?

Have you each and all gone blind:

Is the war inside your mind?

All the world knows the score

But no man can find the war

Tim Buckley

Written by Julian Macfarlane

No Man Can Find the War

Moon of Alabama has published a really great article by Bernhard on the recent artillery battles in the Ukraine. The Russians have at least 10 times the available firepower and endless ammunition. The UAF is still struggling to make up what it lost in the first couple of weeks of the war.

Still, as we saw with the recent HIMARS missile strike that wiped out a Russian company in Makeyevka the UAF has the occasional success.

Light at the end of the tunnel—or just another tunnel?

Where is the Russian Offensive?

I had thought the offensive the Russians are obviously preparing for would begin earlier but… it hasn’t.   B. at MoA has an excellent article on that, too.

Why?

The unusually warm weather that has prevented the ground from freezing as early as expected could be one reason.

There are other reasons.

A large-scale offensive is complex, hard to plan, a lot can go wrong, and you have to seek out and destroy the enemy, putting your own troops at risk. Scott Ritter makes the point that a large push would increase the “frontage” of defense lines. He is, of course, thinking in standard American /Marine Corps terms of war for territory, as opposed to mobility warfare aimed at destroying the enemy, as was Grant’s strategy in the American Civil War.

To take territory in a country as large as Ukraine, the Russians would need to also take control of railroads for transport as Dima says. Dima thinks they are preparing to do this, but it would be no small task. And even if you have the tracks and Russia’s specialized units trained to get the working, it will not be easy and take time.

New Year's Sitrep: The End of the Tunnel?

Click to see full-size image

Keep in mind also that Russia really doesn’t want “Ukrainian” Ukraine — the West, especially Galicia, which Putin regards as territory imposed on Russia by Lenin — to the cost of Russia, like a gift from your mother-in-law.

Western Ukraine is the poorest part of the Ukraine as a whole and has little to offer.

The offensive when it comes will likely not be the kind that many would like to see— one aimed at taking all of Russian Ukraine, perhaps even Kiev and Lviv.

Why bother?

For the time being all along the contact line, you have an enemy that just comes to you begging to be killed.  That’s the lesson of Bakhmut and previously of Kherson and Krasny Liman.

Bakhmut has gotten the most press.

At first, the Western media, relying on Kiev, claimed this now depopulated town was a “strategic” asset, just like Kherson City.  For the UAF, Kherson turned out to be a liability rather than an asset and they have pretty much abandoned it, losing scores of men due to shelling and drone strikes from across the river. The Russians had previously occupied Kherson City with elite troops. These are now relocated to other areas where they are more useful.  In other words, the Russian “retreat” was a victory. And UAF “success” was failure.

Now, with massive Ukrainian losses all along the contact line and inland as well, thanks to daily missile strikes, and the destruction of Ukrainian energy systems, Zelensky is downplaying Bakhmut’s significance. Not such as big deal, he now seems to be saying.

Alex Mercouris has rightfully asked if Bakhmut is not important now — why sacrifice up to 1000 men a day for it? Col Andrew Milburn, no friend of the Russians and who was in “that horrible and miserable place” says:

Ukraine is a “corrupt, fucked-up society” run by “fucked-up people” Ukrainian soldiers “kill dudes who surrendered,” commit “atrocities”.

Col. Andrew Milburn

Zelensky is not even a good comedian. Bakhmut is his worst joke ever.

Is the War inside your mind?

For Volo’ a story that sells is all that matters. Brave Ukrainians sacrificing themselves for their country against evil invaders?  Heroic deaths?  Cry “Freedom”?  All good stuff. But the audience has to be drunk or braindead to appreciate it.

As a military strategist, Zelensky is a fuckup. A venal fuckup. He is not fighting to win. He is fighting to keep the cash flowing.

He’s a billionaire now.  And when this gig ends, he will move on to another. Ukraine can lose but he won’t. He will be doing lines of coke in Beverly Hills.

The Western Media cheer him on. Netflix will make a series.

It doesn’t matter that Bakhmut was a Russian town called Artemovsk and it is the Western Ukrainians who are the invaders.  It doesn’t matter that the men dying in Bakhmut are poorly trained conscripts forced to fight.  It doesn’t matter the same thing is happening all along the contact line.

New Year's Sitrep: The End of the Tunnel?

Click to see full-size image

Our commander told us, when were on the battlefield: if you start retreating, we will shoot you, also behind you are barrier troops, which will be shooting those running away”

Dmitry Tarasyuk, 95th assault brigade, UAF

“Bakhmut” is a media event—as is the whole Ukrainian “war”. Entertainment for the public. And massive profits for American weapons companies.

The Russians see it differently. For them, this conflict is existential — and moral, if not spiritual.

Just about every Russian…

For the rest of article, please click here to go to my Substack site and please subscribe. It’s free..

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Cop

So we won. Not yet? Are we waiting for next christmas or what?

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S-500

If you live in Melitopol, Berdyansk, Mariupol, Severdonetsk…obviusly you won because citizens there are the facto Russians

Cop

You are right. It’s really sad that the citizens of Kherson, Odessa, Kharkiv or Kiev don’t live in Melitopol. They would have already won. Now they are still waiting, and waiting, and waiting…

Z for Victory

you are just too idiot.

kotromanic

I would not consider living in citys ukraine and russia were or are still fighting over a win. It’s more ruin then a win …

kymsheba

BREAKING: Europe-wide plan to deliver hundreds of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine – Bradley M2 and Paladin M109A6 shipment from US begins also ABRAMS tanks being sent as well…

https://warnews247-gr.translate.goog/ektakto-panevropaiko-schedio-paradosis-ekatontadon-armaton-leopard-2-stin-oukrania-xekinise-i-apostoli-bradley-m2-kai-paladin-m109a6-apo-ipa/?_x_tr_sl=el&_x_tr_tl=en&_x_tr_hl=en

NATO are completely INSANE this will mean NATO is officially at war with Russia and the NUKES will fly all of NATO will be nuked no doubt and the USA will be a radioactive wasteland this time the USA cannot escape destruction on their home soil, Russia has already stated this will be a red line for NATO and the USA and those countries will be nuked god help us all NATO and the USA are going to cause a NUCLEAR WAR, god bless RUSSIA and now will be the time to either LAUNCH THE OFFENSIVE and cut the access through Poland or NUKE NATO and the USA. =Z=

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Last edited 1 year ago by kymsheba
AliG

I agree on the news. But I disagree with your conclusions of a direct war with NATO. At the moment Russia is full buzy in Ukraine. The military complex is not prepared for a new bigger confrontation. And Biden, Macrin and Scholz know this. They use the weakness of Russia to generate enough military power to keep Syria, Armenia Ukraine and inner Asia stable.

BUT: what if Russia will win Ukraine war/SMO? Russia and Putin was betrayed from the west. They should fear the consequences in near future. But I believe the guys don’t even think of loosing Ukraine. It is more and more a all in game.

kymsheba

i think Russia will do one of two things hopefully option one is the one they do which is LAUNCH the offensive now and cut off the border to Poland and swing south to Odessa and landlock NAZI UKRAINE before finishing off Kiev ….. OR OPTION 2 which i hope does not happen as we all die the NUKES WILL FLY as this will be the last red line for Russia which they have warned the HOMICIDAL MANIACS in the WEST that if they cross this line then NOBODY WINS.

God help us all NATO and the USA are FUCKING INSANE. =Z=

USA is a shithole, EU is becoming one

Russian military complex should think only in terms of a total war against NATO. Otherwise NATO will hammer them until they are knocked out. The USA is desperate for these resources and they will not stop until taking Russia for them.

Stalin the Piece of Shit With the Ugly Moustach

Putin has been begging for a propaganda victory in Bakhmut for months. All he has accomplished is show the world how weak he is. Not even the Wagner freaks can bail him out. Russia already lost the battle for Bakhmut.

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failed

funny that as Soledar has fallen and Bakhmut is about to fall and NAZI UKRAINE has not advanced at all and are retreating all along the line and yet you still think your winning which is obviously why your a keyboard warrior as your so fucking delusional. =Z=

Stalin the Piece of Shit With the Ugly Moustach

Funny that you’ve been saying the exact same thing since last summer.

AliG

Your biggest mistake is to void Galicia the connection to the west. Occupy the poor west Ukraine and no NATO help can reach Ukraine and you can dictate peace to your conditions.

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USA is a shithole, EU is becoming one

The Red Army took half of Europe and it would have taken all Europe if the Wermacht would have been a couple of weeks late in the launching of Barbarosa… Why Ukraine would be too big of a bite for Russia?

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Cromwell

Why would the Red army have taken all of Europe if Barbarossa had been late?

USA is a shithole, EU is becoming one

Because The Red Army lost about 5 million men from the first days, the most professional of them… The Red Army had thousands of T-34s and KV tanks while the best tanks in Europe were several short barel Pz III, almost a joke. Also a lot of industrial facilities were lost or moved to the Urals under enemy fire, huge stocks of amo, fuel, gear etc were lost and so on. All this power would have crushed the Nazy machine. No oil for Nazis too since Romania would have been taken from the first days. The element of surprize would have done the rest…

The Red Army would have hunted down the remnants of the Wermacht up to the English coast. Maybe the Vichy France or the Spain Franco would have been spared.

Last edited 1 year ago by USA is a shithole, EU is becoming one
kotromanic

The answer to this question is easy. The red army was not a russian army just like the ukrainian army is no ukrainian armys. Boths are/ were commanded by nonslavs and both have no regard for slavic lives.

By the way both use the same tactics to have loyal (bolshevic / banderist) troops shooting conscripts that do not want to fight.

Modern russia does not do it so russian soldiers are not as “motivated” to suicide themselves.

If you think russia should be again like in ww2 well just surrender to the slav-haters who are waiting to take over and suicide all slavs into the china frontline. And yes poland and it’s western slavic brothers are part of those to be suicided into china. But they will never learn that the british and us do not wish them well.

USA is a shithole, EU is becoming one

Why the Russian army would not be even stronger in front of a much less hostile Europe?

They will not come with the menace of Communism but with cheap gas, more freedom of speech and better food eventually…

Last edited 1 year ago by USA is a shithole, EU is becoming one
USA is a shithole, EU is becoming one

Russia has no choice but to take all the rich Ukraine and isolate the pauper sector and let them starve, freeze, going under Russian protection and mercy or go whoring to Europe.

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Mike

“or go whoring to Europe” … Which is what they are doing for the past 8 years.

EU must not be USA slave

Obviously they were also busy with being Nazy thugs and attacking Russians. Something which might become out of reach.

Rotten West

Nato-bots talk about how long the SMO is going to take, well they should remember how long the US intervention was in Afghanistan (20 years), by the way, the US army lost and left that country.

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kotromanic

Well there is one difference afghanistan was never vital for the us. Taliban can shoot over the border but they will then hit pakistan and not the us. If ukrainian shoot over the border they hit russia. So russia can’t retreat here.

Stalin the Piece of Shit With the Ugly Moustach

It looks like Southfront has become the real Russian propaganda shithole it always tried to be. The one where the truth is literally cut out from the conversation. Thank God I wasn’t born in a fucking disgusting shithole like Russia. It must be a living hell living in that frozen dump led by a miltary amateur with the brain of a cockroach like Vladimir Putin.🤣

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kotromanic

Hope for you you were born outside europe couse the us government has no good planes for those either.

Armin

The RICHEST part of Ukraine, inhabited entirely by Russians, is the part of the Russian special military operation. The rest of Ukraine is farmland….. with a good portion of the population not supportive of the Russians. So it stands to reason that the Russians keep us in the east. The rest of Ukraine withers as the Stone Age reaches………… Of course that means the death of Ukraine and a triumph of minimal energy and commitment from Russia.

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Stalin the Piece of Shit With the Ugly Moustach

And that’s why the Russian Special Forces were completely wiped out while they were trying to topple Zelensky in Kiev, right? That’s why the Wagner freaks have been trying to bail out Vladimir Putin in Bakhmut and accomplished NOTHING. They have failed in every single objective other than raping and murdering the Ukrainian civilian population. But they keep trying like you just said since the Russian terrorists are still living in the deranged fantasy that Kiev is capital of Russia from the Mongol Empire.

Last edited 1 year ago by Stalin the Piece of Shit With the Ugly Moustach
kotromanic

It is not ideology that guides putin. It is on the ukrainian side. Keep the mongols out and the tartars. But Putin has shown multiple times that he is hostile to both tsarist and communist movements so those are not his either. Whatever he wants it has nothing to do with ideology, culture or religion.

I do not think many in russia even understand what is going on and why. Perhaps he does not know himselv just does not want to lose.

EU must not be USA slave

Farmland is a wealth itself.

After the extermination of Ukrainians I will move there. 🇷🇺

Stalin the Piece of Shit With the Ugly Moustach

Just like the Nazi extermination of Jewish people, right? You would have loved it in Auschwitz. I know that to a deranged freak like you it must sound as a complement.

kotromanic

Sorry but the job in the nazi camps was one that mostly ukrainians took.

LED

Tim Buckley was speaking of NAZIs who are so brainwashed you need only put them on a battlefield and wave a flag the politics are of little significance.

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Martillo

Tragic as the destruction of rump Ukrapland is, one can only rejoice that the chunk of naZi gristle that the angloZionaZi empire of shit imagined it could swallow, is now choking the dogs of Natostan and ensuring that bananas “republic” USSA gets the civil war in Slumville that it so richly deserves. The IOU freeloader lunch with the filthy Saudi Mercan petroscrip toilet paper dollah is over and Slumville is heading down the toilet. Will the filthy turds in the Washing town sewer dare to pull a “nucleeer” false flag or some such other gimmick? Would these insane degenerates blow the planet to save their filthy asses? Do rats eat their brood when starving?

Just let the Satanic pedovore scum try it and they will all be glassed over before their bunker hatches are closed. As president Putin said “A world without Russia” will not be.

Meanwhile Odessa awaits liberation and we will see it before the spring.

Z

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kotromanic

As president Putin said “A world without Russia” will not be.

I am sorry but for one of the rare empires to ever end themselves without a fight i do not see russia going all in. By the way i think i only heard such a sentence twice until now. Those saying it where nazis and neocons. Not sure if you want to be part of this group.

bert33

I think a lot of people would llike to see zelensky in russian custody and on his way to moscow to face the music, and his army lined up along the roads stacking arms and getting trucked to kiev by the russian army and put an end to the war. There comes a point and hopefully our new congress pulls the plug.

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Kbm

Exactly the analogy I was thinking when it comes to the Rodent Zelensky. I have little hope for Europe outside of Hungary and Serbia; as it baffles me to see so many governments in a USA and NATO stranglehold. However; time, like all things will be an equalizer of that disfunction.

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Void

Certainly Kiev must be a Russian city again.

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kotromanic

I do not think the “Unionstate” idea is the right one.

The russian world would need a form in which Kiev, Donetsk, Simferopol, Minsk and Moskov exist as equals with a formal alliance to help each other defend themselves and never join an alliance or support others who are hostile to any member state.

Russia should have never formaly let Crimea and Donbas join them but just protected them for the time beeing. If the people after the war let’s say 5 years later opt to join russia or be an independent Nation but still part of the russian world that would be fine.

And i do not think there are many people right now in ukraine left outside donbas and crimea that want to be part of russia. I think that this war has alianated even many in belarus potentially critically damaged even the idea of a russian world similar like many former yugoslavs hate the idea to have anything in common with each other.

Last edited 1 year ago by kotromanic
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