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Nobody knows for sure what happened to the radioactive sources that were available to Ukraine in Soviet times. ” Many Soviet-era radioactive sources are not on anyone’s radar, not even in Ukraine’s ” is the alarm raised by Vitaly Fedchenko, a nuclear safety expert at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. There are many radioactive sources in Ukraine, extremely sensitive material in wartime, material that could entice those who want to precipitate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine and turn it into a nuclear scenario.
With the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1991 Ukraine found itself in control of about 5,000 nuclear warheads between strategic and tactical weapons, the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world after Russia and the United States. To the detriment of a certain internal opposition, the country chose denuclearization from the beginning and in accordance with the Budapest Memorandum of December 1994. By June 1996 all nuclear weapons (and their vectors) were dismantled or transferred to Russia.
But even today, experts count thousands of sites in Ukraine that contain radiological materials. Most of those substances are under the watchful eye of the Ukrainian nuclear regulator. But most, in these cases, is not enough. Because the nuclear option has been at the top of the list of risks since the beginning of the conflict, with Moscow and Kiev accusing each other of being in the process of using a dirty bomb, a bomb whose explosive material is contaminated with nuclear substances.
A scenario that could easily spiral out of control. Thus, the information collected on social channels is of great concern. Telegram is not always a reliable source but for some days rumors have been circulating that the Kiev authorities speak of preparations for the construction of a dirty bomb to be used in the conflict.
The following information appeared in Ukrainian telegram channels – “Our source in the Presidential Administration told us that the President’s Office is ready to create a dirty nuclear bomb to deter Russia. A headquarters has already been set up at Bankova with atomic scientists and military officers who are urgently preparing a team to develop nuclear weapons.”
Is it just propaganda or is there something true? Impossible to say for sure. But the consequences of such an action, if it were ever true, would be unimaginable for the entire planet. It is of little importance to establish who can push the nuclear button first: it does not matter whether it is a tactical device or a dirty bomb.
A nuclear attack would involve the immediate reaction of the other party. Researchers and scientists have no doubts. It would be the first step towards escalation. A nuclear war, even if regional in scope, would have such an impact on the climate as to cause a drastic reduction in crops and condemn a large part of the world to starvation, with a number of deaths that could range between a few hundred million and 5 billion.
The latest paper available on the consequences of a nuclear conflict in Europe was written last year by Rutgers University in New Brunswick. The researchers compare six possible nuclear conflict scenarios. One of the hypotheses considered is precisely that of a nuclear confrontation in the heart of Europe, with its epicenter on the border between Russia and Ukraine. The worst case scenario, the one that would occur in the event of a conflict between the US and its allies and Russia, would produce 150 million tons of soot and a nuclear winter on a global scale. The reduction in the availability of food in the world would be about 90% and more than 5 billion people would die from the consequences of hunger.
“In conclusion, the dimmed light, global cooling and likely trade restrictions after the nuclear wars would be a global food security catastrophe,” the researchers write.
There is only one rule to be respected in the face of the madness of the world: a nuclear war cannot be won.
