On April 8, the Turkish Army and the Russian Military Police conducted a 3rd joint patrol in southern Idlib. As in the previous cases, the new patrol was a limited one and took place just west of the government-controlled town of Saraqib. The movement of the patrol along the M4 highway towards the supposedly created ‘safe zone’ in the area was once again blocked by supporters of Idlib radicals.
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I suspect that the further Syrian and Russian forces push into Idlib, the less cooperation will be forthcoming from Turkish forces. In parts of Syria, Turkish forces tour the countryside with Russian forces yet in other areas they fire Manpads, intent on destroying Russian aircraft and killing its pilot/s.
Just how long will Russian patience with Turkish forces last, is anyone’s guess.
It appears that the offensive is awaiting Russian approval, but who knows what they are waiting for, it doesn’t appear to be military fear from turkey, as giving them more time makes them more dangerous, it’s also not trying to keep relations with turkey, as turkey has complete opposing interests with Russia, no way to change that. But it’s something else, something really deep, they are waiting for something, and God knows what it is, there is somekind of plan for this. Either way, it’s inevitable, idleb will be liberated, one way or another. But when? And why? We don’t know yet.
Both Russia and the US are pinned by their budgets. Both are keen to avoid quagmires which drain resources and at the same time would translate back home into social unrest. Entering into open conflict right now will greatly strain Russia.
But the converse also is true. Drive a nation into a corner and it will seek open conflict given enough time.
Now if there was some way Russia can make Turkey and US be at odds on the Eastern side, it will have an easier time. lol Or the safest way is to support Haftar or enter into unofficial channels with Afrin forces to mount more attacks. Anyway the continuous garrison, and recon by Turkey is also a drain on its resources. Syria also has to come up with an answer to Turkish bombardment as the last conflict showed that holding cities are meat grinders.
The US is another thing though. USA wouldn’t intervene to help turkey, they don’t have any interests in doing so, infact, they wouldn’t like turkey to get stronger. I’m specifically talking about the turks here, USA isn’t the target RN, they will be countered by a local resistant later (the Syrian president said that BTW)
I think that NATO is trying to play chess by using the the virus and the low oil prices, to see if Russia will blink. If not, they will attack Russia in Syria (the US and Allies are moving assets out of the Middle East since that gives Russia nice targets to destroy).
Four days after the second deadline’s passed and what’s happened, nothing much, March 5th was supposed to be the last chance for Turkey to keep to it’s side of the deal, they were supposed to open the highway for joint patrols and make the highway safe for traffic, but instead of those commitments the Russians got holes in the highway and new checkpoints and barricades, and a very short drive along a few kms of highway, that’s not what was expected from the Turks, or was it. Who’s complaining about the Turks failure to fulfill their commitments, is Assad, are the Russians, who’s actually complaining about the Turks now, apart from the pro Russian media outlets that is. Assad’s upset with the Turks and their proxies in Al Hasakah, and with the US too, and he’s really worried about the coronavirus as well, but as to the M4 highway and the Turks failure to keep to the Russian/Turkish deal, not one word.