Pincers Around Uspenovka: Capture Of Pavlovka Opens New Avenues For Russian Advance To Gulyaypole

The Russian Armed Forces struck a foreign mercenaries at the Goncharovsky training camp. The 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade has taken control of Pavlovka, a settlement on the right bank of the Yanchur River. Prime Minister Robert Fico said that the veto on the 19-th package could be lifted.

Sumy Direction:

Intense combat operations continue in the Sumy area. According to reports from Russian sources, assault units of the ‘North’ grouping, supported by aviation and artillery, are conducting offensive operations in the forested areas of Sumy Oblast. An advance of up to 150 meters on the right flank of the offensive has been noted, followed by the consolidation of positions.

The Ukrainian side undertook three counterattacks in the Konstantinovka, Varachino and Kondratovka areas. Units involved included the 158th Separate Mechanized Brigade, the 225th Separate Assault Brigade and the 425th Separate Assault Regiment ‘Skala’. All attacks were reportedly repelled.

In Chernihiv Oblast, Russian sources report that a strike was carried out on the Goncharovsky training ground, which they claim was used to train foreign mercenaries.

Kharkiv Direction:

According to Russian sources, assault groups have made advances on the left bank of the Volchya River. Seven buildings have been secured and an advance of 200 meters has been achieved.

In the forested area to the west of Sinelnikovo, Russian units have advanced 250 meters and captured one strongpoint. An advance of 200 meters through tree plantations has been recorded in the Tikhoye settlement area, while an advance of 400 meters along tree lines has been reported in the Melovoye-Khatneye sector.

Reports suggest that the Ukrainian side is transferring additional units to stabilise the situation in this area.

Zaporizhzhia Direction:

Units of the ‘East’ grouping continue to advance, extending their control in the outskirts of Uspenovka. According to operational data, Russian forces have taken control of the Pavlovka settlement on the eastern bank of the Yanchur River. It is reported that fighters of the 60th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade have completely displaced Ukrainian formations from the area.

In the central sector, Russian sources report that Ukrainian units attempted to advance from Orestopol towards Stepovoye. These reports state that the attack was repelled using strike UAVs, resulting in the destruction of an armored vehicle and personnel. The remnants of the attacking units are said to have withdrawn to the surrounding tree lines.

Meanwhile, Russian assault groups are advancing on the outskirts of the Vishnevoye settlement. According to reports, Ukrainian formations are attempting to restrain this advance with artillery strikes and the active use of drones. However, combat has already reached the outskirts of the settlement.

Further south, an increase in combat activity has been noted in the Novonikolaevka and Okhotniche area. Russian sources assess that the Ukrainian side is attempting to create a new defensive line south of Uspenovka, using the Yanchur River as a natural obstacle and strengthening air defense.

The Russian command is focusing its efforts on achieving success in the direction of Uspenovka, the capture of which could endanger the rear communications of the Gulyaypole fortified area. In turn, the Ukrainian side is undertaking counterattacking actions in other sectors to divert forces and prevent a breakthrough of the defensive lines.

Pokrovsk Direction:

Units belonging to the ‘Centre’ grouping continue to conduct clearance operations in urban districts. According to operational data, Ukrainian units are still putting up significant resistance south of the railway, particularly in the forested area east of Troyandy. Meanwhile, Russian forces are expanding their control zone in the northern part of the city.

There are reports of Russian units breaking through into the area bounded by the Rog settlement, the meat processing plant and the Dust Suppression Plant. If Russian units consolidate these positions and dislodge Ukrainian formations from the plantations adjacent to the railway line towards Rodinskoye, Mirnograd could face an operational threat of encirclement.

Groups of Ukrainian military personnel have been observed moving from Pokrovsk and Mirnograd to the Khutor Zapozhsky area and the Zapadny (Western) microdistrict. According to sources, these movements do not appear to be an organized withdrawal, but rather the actions of units left without proper supplies amid the chaos of urban warfare.

In Mirnograd, Russian units have entered the city limits east and southeast of the mine after establishing control over the Promin settlement. Fierce battles are ongoing in the area around Mine 5/6, on the approaches to the Zapadny microdistrict of Mirnograd and in the northern and north-eastern parts of the city.

According to sources, artillery units and aviation are striking defensive positions between Pokrovsk and Mirnograd. In Rodinskoye, there have been reports of intense close-quarters battles for control of high-rise buildings, with significant losses on both sides.

Kupyansk Direction:

Urban combat continues in Kupyansk. According to Russian sources, there have been advances in the western part of the city and consolidation in the Dmytro Kotsiubaylo Street area. According to reports, fighting is underway for multi-storey residential buildings in the Yubileyny (Jubilee) microdistrict.

There have been reports of local counterattacks by Ukrainian units. The total area advanced by Russian units within the city is estimated at around 10 hectares.

Lyman Direction:

In the Lyman area, Russian units continue their offensive operations. According to reports, fighters from the ‘West’ grouping are advancing towards Koroviy Yar and the Stavki area, where they are consolidating their positions in the north of the settlement.

Click to see full-size image.

Konstantinovka Direction:

Russian sources report the clearance of the western part of Predtechenko and attempts to consolidate positions in the dacha (summer house) area. Further east, there have been battles for key positions within the area of responsibility of the 6th Division.

Conclusion:

On 22 October, the operational situation was characterized by high-intensity hostilities on most fronts. On the Sumy axis, Russian units have made positional advances, alongside active defense and counterattacking actions by Ukrainian formations. On the Kharkiv axis, ongoing battles in Vovchansk and surrounding areas saw Russian units gradually advance. On the Zaporizhzhia axis, the focus is on building on the success in the Malaya Tokmachka area and establishing control over Pavlovka, which paves the way for further offensive actions. A complex situation persists on the Pokrovsk axis, with Russian units gradually advancing towards the outskirts of Mirnograd and intense urban combat continuing in Pokrovsk. On the Kupyansk axis, there has been methodical advancement within the city limits and consolidation of new positions. A common feature of combat operations on all fronts is the extensive use of unmanned aerial vehicles, which significantly impact warfare tactics and complicate the accumulation of forces and resources.

In diplomatic news, significant changes were seen in Slovakia’s position regarding the 19th EU sanctions package against Russia on 22 October. Prime Minister Robert Fico stated that the veto could potentially be lifted if Brussels met Bratislava’s demands on key economic issues.

Negotiations have focused on energy prices, support for the automotive industry and revising the emissions quota system.

Particular attention in Slovakia’s demands is paid to the automotive sector, which is critically important to the country’s economy. Slovakia, which has the world’s highest car production per capita, has expressed concern about maintaining competitiveness under European environmental restrictions. Fico emphasized that his position concerns “not Russia or Ukraine”, but rather “the economic priorities of Europe”.

Upcoming negotiations with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are expected to determine whether a compromise on the contentious issues is possible. Bratislava has previously blocked the 18th sanctions package six times, but the current statements suggest a willingness to find mutually acceptable solutions. The outcome of these negotiations could have a significant impact on the adoption of the next package of sanctions against Russia, and could reveal new trends in European diplomacy where the economic interests of individual member states are beginning to play a more significant role.

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