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Written by Piero Messina
Nothing good from the Western Front. All ties with Russia are severed and the relationship with China will also have to be reconsidered. The crisis between Ukraine and Russia also leads to negative projections in the Asian quadrant. In the event of a further worsening of tensions with Russia and China, the United States should then adopt a strategy linked to the superiority of nuclear weapons. The United States, therefore, should be able to assume a military posture that allows it to launch a preventive attack to destroy a large part of the infrastructure of Russia and China, reducing to the maximum the possibility of any retaliation, thus limiting the damage on the territory as much as possible. national. In Washington there are already those who are looking to the post-war future in Ukraine. The scenario we have just described – defined as the “Hardline Approach” – is one of the options that Rand Corporation outlines for the imminent future.
Rand Corporation is one of the most influential think tanks in the Atlantic sphere. Founded in 1946 with financial support from the US Department of Defense, it currently employs more than 1,500 researchers at locations in Santa Monica, Washington and Pittsburgh. Since 1992 it has been active in Europe through its subsidiary RAND Europe. Among its main successes, the RAND Corporation includes the application of game theory for deciding different options, methodologies for anticipating possible future developments through the simulation of geostrategic scenarios.
The Report published by Rand Corporation is entitled “Planning for the Aftermath” and was created by Samuel Charap (professor at the University of Oxford and expert on Russia and Eurasia) and Miranda Priebe (Director, Center for Analysis of U.S. Grand Strategy and researcher at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Princeton University).
Samuel Charap, Miranda Priebe
The researchers’ premise reflects the competitive spirit with which the United States intends to confront Russia and the multipolar world from now on. There are two main elements, maintaining high military control of Western Europe and tightening sanctions against Russia:
“post-war US policy towards Russia could have significant long-term effects on US interests in Europe and beyond. Washington may ultimately decide to maintain many elements of its wartime policy, such as high force levels in Europe and sanctions against Russia.”
Furthermore, Rand researchers are forced to admit that the geopolitical dynamics of recent years have created a now indissoluble bond between Russia and China:
“Closer Russia-China ties may be irreversible. Before the war, Beijing and Moscow’s ties were driven by a shared concern about U.S. power and foreign policy; relations have deepened further during the war. In the postwar setting, a hardline U.S. policy toward Russia could create more incentives for greater Russia-China cooperation. A moderately less hardline approach, such as the one we consider, would avoid creating such additional incentives; but it would be unlikely to alter the underlying suspicions of the United States that sustain the relationship”.
Returning to the analysis of the post-war evolution in Ukraine, first of all, researchers from the Rand Corporation outline two scenario forecasts on how the dispute could end. The first vision predicts an outcome of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine that is not favorable to the West. In fact, that’s exactly what’s happening. The context outlined by Rand envisages “a long war of attrition that continues at least for a long time to come.” During this period, China decides to provide Russia with the lethal military support it has so far avoided providing, including significant quantities of ammunition and advanced weapons systems. With these additional capabilities and more time to deal with problems plaguing its force, the Russian military makes some territorial gains within Ukraine, controlling most – but not all – of the five regions it claims to have annexed. In response to Beijing’s aid to Moscow, the United States and its allies impose limited sanctions on China, aimed at companies involved in the supply of weapons. When the Russian military offensive seems definitively over, with the Ukrainian army no longer able to counterattack effectively, a stalemate will arrive. Kiev and Moscow will begin talks and eventually a tenuous ceasefire could be reached, an agreement to end the fighting without sophisticated de-escalation mechanisms, leaving the risk of recurrence of the conflict intact.
It is a scenario that evokes the Balkanization of the conflict. According to the Rand Corporation Report, the scenario just described would cause a total destruction of the economy of what remains of Ukraine, reduced to a Zombie State, absolutely dependent on economic support from the West. Relations between the United States, Russia and China would thus be one step away from total collapse.
The second scenario imagined by Rand Corporation researchers predicts outcomes more favorable to the West on the Ukrainian battlefield. Relations between the West and China remain substantially unchanged, while the relationship with Russia remains tense, with sanctions that are gradually being reduced due to a progressive greater integration of Moscow with the Western world. To date, however, this hypothesis appears truly distant from what reality tells us day by day.
According to researchers at Rand Corporation, “even if Russia does not intend to attack, NATO needs forces and associates plan to face the possibility of a conflict with Moscow.” The United States and the Soviet Union, and later, Russia, have a long history of managing and controlling the risks of nuclear escalation. However, according to Rand, “the current war has shattered bilateral relations and narrowed the space for future legally binding treaties.” In short, we have to live with the risk of a nuclear conflict in the near future. From Rand’s analysis, a suggestion comes to American foreign policy, avoid an hardline approach towards Russia:
”our assessment of the conflict risk associated with the hardline strategy stems from two core assumptions about Russian behavior: that Moscow is deterred from an opportunistic attack on NATO but will respond assertively to a U.S. hardline strategy rather than accept it without contestation. These assertive responses could increase the risk of U.S.-Russia conflict through other pathways than opportunistic aggression. We assess that the hardline policy strategy produces little additional benefit in the futures because NATO, the United States, and its allies already have a strong deterrent against an opportunistic Russian attack. This judgment rests on the assumption that Russia’s risk tolerance—particularly its willingness to risk a war with the United States and its NATO allies—will be relatively similar to what it is as of this writing. In other words, Russia is not inclined to undertake an opportunistic war of aggression against the United States or its allies. Indeed, even at the time of this writing, when Russia has a clear motive to attack NATO to stem the flow of weapons to Ukraine, it has refrained from doing so”.
translation, the pretend joo’s who control the us have seen their plan to control the planet starting with the re-establishment of khazaria coming to nothing, so they are going to spiteful and vindictively formulating events that will lead to a nuclear war, so they can start again with a blank sheet when it is over. oy vey.
russian lack of action under putin hope and wishes to be friend of macron and biden without deterring british and usa.risk russia existing and total humiliation under nato suprise attack.
lack of action under putin?????? remind me, how much territory has left ukraine and returned to russia? what happened to the 500,000 that zelinsky sent to the meat grinder? nato surprise attack? what with pitch forks? nothing else left in the nato toy box, now is there?
you moron. west got the whole ukraine without losing a single soldier, all they need to do was spent 5 billions usd in bribes and they printed these money on their printers so it didn’t cost them anything. maidan could and should be prevente4d but putin personally didn’t moved a finger because he had a deal. it is in his interview with carlsson.
you have no arguments, you can slap thousand “-” but only means you are a moron.
“west got the whole ukraine without losing a single soldier” what about the nato general staff killed in a bunker?
1/3 you lose your argument when you have to resort to personal insults.
so, if the west got the whole of ukraine, without losing a single soldier, then why did merkel have to rush to the kremlin, back in august or was it september 2014, begging president putin for help, owing to all the nato forces stuck in the cauldrons of eastern ukraine? remember, it led to the un backed minsk ii peace agreement, that the west refused to honour?
2/3 how many kiddies, now grown up are still waiting for daddy to come home? daddy, who is now the secret ingrediant in the beyer-monsanto compost. printers did not cost the western economy anything????? is that why us gdp debt went from 108% back in 2014, to over 114% in early 2024? costing the us tax payer $64,814 per citizen?
3/3 the maidan, remind me, but, wasn’t that in ukraine and president yanukovic was the president of ukraine at the time, to be replaced by poroshenko the zelinsky? wasn’t president putin the president of russia, who were enjoying the success of the russian winter olympics at the time? so why were the cookie monsters, academia/eric prince mercenaries and georgian snipers the responsibility of president putin?
…correct! there is only one possibility: russia and china, with the prior consultation of india and pakistan, must immediately launch a large-scale nuclear strike against the us, uk and france and solve the problem forever. otherwise, you will drag it around with you for at least decades, if not centuries.
and we humans are not that important for this planet again…
a mentaly retarde with less brain than a chicken
do this after the zionist parasites are all dumped in the usa, out off palestine.
india and china like each other as cat and dog and they have border dispute. this is a problem. the whole brics exist only on a paper. they are not true counterpart of the west/nato.
that’s precisely the case. putin is eager to kill his opposition inside russia to spare his enemies (or so called partners) in the west. what russia really needs is some realistic government. not crazy regime north korea edition, but not soft and weak putin-lavrov crybullies either. they need realistic leaders able to use adequate force against west, not just being promised-deceived, promised-deceived thousand times again and again and again.
what opposition are you referring to???? cia bitch, navalny? he wasn’t opposition, he was a cia spook and a racist pos.
lack of action under putin? you obviously haven’t been watching. the us and the british haven’t an answer to the weapons currently being deployed by the russian admin. an admin currently under the leadership of guess who? what is the nato surprise? sending in newland? that ain’t going to work, as the fat us boiler ate all the cookies.
yeah that cookie monster nudelman nuland is one ugly heffer.
being pig ugly is an unescapable trademark of zionists.
yeah, her husband is a jabba the hutt looking blob too. their barns must be reinforced to keep those blobs supported.
rand corporation, created in 1946, and just a year before cia launched, whose first exercise was ‘operation paperclip’. same year that isr*el was created. the same rand corporation that sent instructions, back in may 2014, to poroshenko, the choccie guy, who was given title of president of ukraine. the instructions he received from rc, were to get rid of 1.5 million ukies.
nice history lesson. 👍🏽
the us empire is irredeemably corrupt. too many greedy people there are making fortunes on war and chaos to turn it around. the best that can be hoped for is to contain its madness until it dies of its own illnesses.
yes, they must choke on their own evil vomit.
lol this compared to russia, the most corrupt country in the history of the world is a joke
you spelled the u.s wrong.
exactly! he shows his ignorance with stupid sh** like that.
where did you hear russia was most corrupt? from the peace-loving, non-corrupt u.s. government? 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
there is no other outcome for russia than total victory, everything else will be loss of lives of all soldiers in vain and it will make rest of ukraine become enemy state with people minds corrupted like the volksdeutsches we got in poland.
russia must win and teach future slavic ukrainian children about the maidan terror operation about german eu behind it, teach them who the real enemy is. its all or nothing, otherwise russian brave soldiers died in vain for some worthless piece of land.
full nuclear war is impossible. would not happen, they are bluffing on the world politics one more time. usa empire is out of their mind, they are out of control. the elites of the cannibal sinners are all over the upper layers of the usa empire. its a shame even usa empire did not get a solution to the paradigm of cleaning the higher cannibal classes from taking control of everything, and promote a healthy higher breed in the upper layers that leads the empire to a better place.
it took me a hole half human life to discover that the elites in the western world only cares about themselves, and to perpetuate the breed of the privileges they own. they don’t have to be better, they just have to destroy all competition and to wipe everybody who oposses them. it’s the same way the supreme hegemon of the usa empire acts.
what els can one expect from the “worshippers/chosen ones of satan”
please watch/read this. it’s an interview from tucker carlson. incredible information i heard for the 1st time “the end of democracy” it goes deep down the rabbit hole. once you have this information, you understand so much more as to the.why, how, when. unfortunately southfront doesn’t allow pasting of other site’s addresses.
too bad you can’t post a link to a second-generation us propaganda intelligence asset. oh well.
rand corp. is just a propaganda front to justify global conquest by the deep state zionists.
planning a war with china will cause people to expect a war and also have china produce weapons so zionists can maximize the casualties on both sides to reduce population to manageable numbers while maximizing war industry profits
with brics outpacing them all, the globalist nut jobs decided to attack their most dangerous enemy better now, so nato took on russia and is willing to go even nuclear. covid-19 got everyone in line and that’s where mankind is at this moment.
tge report is not worth the paper it’s written on frankly…..
think-tank, hmh? why don’t you take a tumble home and stay there put until further notice?
these two are full of bs. ukraine has lost the war with russia. the only thing left is to occupy the country and figure out what to do with western ukraine: rump state or division between poland, hungary, belorussia and romania. the authors think that us china relations are warm and fuzzy, instead its heading towards war. no wonder the us is crumbling, with advice like this who needs enemies.
go crazy, make sure you don’t disappear from the map either, only a bunch of retards like the russian government think they can survive radiation
jew devils
pretty obvious stuff to be honest, but surprisingly sane considering it came from the western establishment. remains to be seen whether it changes anything in the attitude of so-called “leaders” who have spent their entire lives going along to get along, and therefore lack the spine to alter course in any substantial way.
bunch of crap and wet dreams of military think-tanks..
it is the same situation as ww1. new weapons were developed and they want to test them. you know who they are. the roth,rockef and so on. what people really don’t understand that nuclear war is not impossible. they can afford 6 billions people dead as ai, medicine and automation can bring them easy life without human servants. the only problem is how to kill not needed servants without destroying the planet. that’s why they are developing mini nukes and precise weapons based on ai.
those criminals cannot afford 6 billions people dead because they directly attack the cosmic force. the so-called ai is nothing more than algorithm with database of repetitive tasks, a single can cause them to delete their programs making them useless. disrespecting the creation for a supreme entity often known as god is asking for trouble
a bunch of back slappers living and working in an echo chamber. when bombs begin dropping on american cities, this cocktail of pressure cooked fruit will be silent. maybe the answer to their nonsense and lies is hanging? these people are spoiled beyond repair.
the problem is that u.s. elites want u.s. citizens dead. that’s why they are supporting black live matters, illegal immigrants, drug dealers and oppressing middle class, calling them racist and white supremacist.
it’s the elite who fund these think tanks, who produce the rubbish such as blm, the lbgqt+/whatever? the elite or gov’t, same thing, tell the think tanks what they want and the tanks make it happen. all of twentieth century crimes were planned there. they are now busy planning the 21st century crimes.
“us citizens” you mean whites who stole the land. they are the scum of the earth. thankfully the world is waking up and turning on them. the american white is the beast from the bible. it needs to be destroyed.
wow. basing your actions on a 2000 year old doctrine isn’t exactly modern thinking, is it? the white people built the modern world you enjoy so much. the white people did indeed steal the land of america. however the indigenous tribes of america were always fighting each other and had been for centuries if not thousands of years. the only thing which does need to be destroyed is the present western admins and their nwo.
to quote a line from the 1980’s movie wargame..
“strange game. the only winning move is not to play.”
lord save us from totally effing clueless academics.
where is the belgorod at the moment?
what happens to the western seaboard when the poseidon nuclear delivery system that is has dropped in san francisco bay opens the san andreas fault?
stupid russian propaganda is getting dumber and dumber every day…
the us is a construct of satan on earth. russia will prevail with the help of god. i pray for 15,000 nukes exploiding on all us cities with more tha 20,000 inhabitants.