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Plans to deploy 10 thousand troops on the Polish-Belarusian border, announced by Polish Defense Minister Mariusz Blaszczak, caused a resonance in the world media. At the moment, everything points to the fact that Poland is preparing for a strategic offensive operation in the Belarusian direction.
Since 2021, under the cover of the “migration crisis,” access to the border zone has been restricted near the Belarusian borders, after which the military actively began to arrive to deploy field communication centers and command posts. At the same time, the Polish authorities announced the creation of a 300,000-strong army and started a “hidden mobilization”, which allowed them to staff the redeployed and newly created units to wartime standards. Later, under the guise of major exercises (“Defender of Europe”, “Anaconda-23” and “Bear-22”), they were supplemented with weapons, military equipment and materiel. The newly formed units have undergone combat alignment, which was completed by their certification (testing their readiness to perform their intended tasks).
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At the same time, during the last few months, the 12th Mechanized Division and the 11th Armored Division were transferred from the German border to the area of Bialystok and Biala Podlaska. And at the end of July their forward command posts and field communication centers were deployed near these cities. In turn, from near Rzeszów to the area of Bielsk-Podlaska the 18th Mechanized Division was urgently transferred. Thus, Poland on the border with Belarus on the border between Grodno and Brest deployed three divisions fully staffed according to the wartime standard.
Today there are 15 thousand troops, hundreds of tanks, artillery and missile systems, several thousand combat and special vehicles. In addition, for the successful operation of the first strike echelon during an offensive operation, it is necessary to have large reserves. This is what Blaszczak mentioned.
Besides, another marker of Poland’s preparation for aggression against Belarus is the redeployment of army aviation and airborne troops to the Belarusian borders.
Thus, analyzing the preparations made by Warsaw, it can be assumed with high probability that most of the measures for the strategic deployment of the Polish Army on the border with Belarus have been completed.
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On this basis, the actions of the Polish grouping may be of the following nature, which can be divided into three directions:
- On Grodno, the 12th Mechanized Division, blocking Grodno from the south, will seek to reach the Shchuchin line.
- On Volkovysk, the 18th Mechanized Division strikes in the direction of Baranovichi.
- On Brest, the 11th Armored Division leads an offensive in the direction of Ivatsevichi.
At the same time, the 6th Airborne and 25th Assault Brigades capture and hold the airfields at Bereza and Pruzhany. It should also be emphasized that the actions of the 12th Mechanized Division and the 11th Armored Division are aimed at providing cover for the northern and southern flanks of the 18th Division, which, being the most powerful unit, will strike the main blow. In addition, from the territory of Ukraine, the Polish forces’ offensive can be supported by mercenary gangs and fugitive opposition fighters. The ultimate goal of the Polish forces may be to reach the Lida-Baranovichi-Pinsk border.
To summarize, we would like to note that the Poles have practically everything ready for aggression against Belarus, the reason for which may become both a border incident and a political decision of the ruling party “Law and Justice” aimed at preserving power in Poland.
In this regard, it is quite realistic that Belarus would use tactical nuclear weapons to defend its territorial integrity with Russia’s sanction. Thus, the actions of one of the NATO members actually provoke escalation on the eastern flank, which is so actively opposed by the alliance members.
In this regard, once again Russia’s launch of a special military operation in Ukraine once again acquires weighty significance for the defense of its own borders. In case of Kiev’s accession to NATO, there was absolutely no guarantee of reproducing a similar scenario, but already using Ukrainian territory and the capabilities of their armed forces.
nuke those 3 divisions when they cross the border into belarus. 🚀💥