In an undated photo from 1979, protestors burn an effigy of Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi during a demonstration in front of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran, Iran. Forty years ago, Iran’s ruling shah left his nation for the last time and an Islamic Revolution overthrew the vestiges of his caretaker government. The effects of the 1979 revolution, including the takeover of the U.S. Embassy in Tehran and ensuing hostage crisis, reverberate through decades of tense relations between Iran and America. Photo: AP
Written by James M. Dorsey
A recent survey of Iranian public opinion suggests that the lack of confidence in a Middle Eastern regime is starkest in Iran, although crisis-wracked Lebanon, Egypt, or Syria may compete.
Surveyed in late December by the Netherlands-based Gamaan Institute, an overwhelming majority of the 158,000 respondents in Iran and 42,000 Diaspora Iranians in 130 other countries, rejected Iran’s Islamic regime. The poll was published days before Iran commemorates the 44th anniversary of the 1979 Islamic revolution.
The poll’s reach was achieved in part by Voice of America and London-base and Saudi-backed Iran International TV helping with the distribution of questionnaires. Iran International made no mention of its involvement in its reporting on the survey.
Iran, which has accused Iran International of fomenting anti-government protests and cited it as evidence of Saudi Arabia’s involvement, is likely to try and discredit the poll on those grounds.
For its part, Iran International asserted last November that Iran had plotted to kill two of its journalists.
As a result, Gamaan’s use of partisan distribution channels raises legitimate questions.
That doesn’t take away from the fact that respondents participated in the poll against the backdrop of anti-government protests that have continued for four months despite a harsh regime crackdown, including the sentencing to death and execution of demonstrators.
Middle Eastern autocrats are less afraid that the Iranian protests will be contagious like the 2011 popular Arab revolts that toppled the autocratic leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen.
Thousands of Egyptian anti-government protesters gather in Tahrir Square to demonstrate against the regime of longtime dictator Hosni Mubarak in Cairo. Feb. 8, 2011. Photo: Ed Ou/The New York Times
There is a twist of irony in reduced Middle Eastern anxiety. Twelve years ago, now embattled Iranian leaders claimed the Arab revolts had been inspired by their 1979 revolution that overthrew the Shah, a monarch and an icon of US power in the region.
That is not to say that Arab autocrats have no concerns today. On the contrary, the 2010s were bookended by the 2011 revolts and mass protests in 2019 and 2020 that overthrew governments in Lebanon, Algeria, Iraq, and Sudan.
Rulers in Egypt and Jordan, where rising commodity and energy prices, coupled in Egypt’s case with economic mismanagement, fear, together with their Gulf backers, that a black swan could spark an eruption of frustration and anger that is boiling at the surface.
Nevertheless, lack of concern about a domino effect bears witness to the yawning gap between Iran and much of the rest of the Middle East as well as doubts the Iranian protests that, at least for now, are fizzling out because of the crackdown and economic pressures, will lead to immediate regime change.
Even so, the stark results of the Iranian public opinion survey are likely to give rulers in Tehran and elsewhere in the region pause.
The fallout of the protest is likely to reverberate over time rather than immediately in Iran as well as regionally. It may also contribute to hardening US and Israeli attitudes against the backdrop of the collapse of efforts to revive the 2015 international agreement that curbed the Islamic republic’s nuclear program and alleged Iranian progress towards a nuclear military capability.
Some of the survey’s findings could not be starker.
Asked, “Islamic Republic: Yes or No?” a whopping 80.9 per cent of people in Iran said no. Not surprisingly, that figure was 99 per cent for Iranians abroad.
Similarly, 80 per cent of those in Iran supported the anti-government protests while 67 per cent believed they would bring about change.
Almost three-quarters, 73 per cent, wanted to see Western nations pressure the Iranian government in support of the protests. Seventy percent agreed with Western governments potentially proscribing the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organization, expelling Iranian ambassadors, sanctioning officials involved in the crackdown, and seizing Iranian assets.
Members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Photo: Iranian Presidency/AFP/Getty
Twenty-two per cent of those in Iran said they had joined the protests, including participating in nightly chanting against the government; 53 per cent indicated they might. Thirty-five percent had engaged in acts of civil disobedience like removing headscarves or writing slogans; 44 per cent participated in strikes, and 75 per cent were in favour of consumer boycotts. Finally, eight percent said they had committed acts of “civil sabotage” while 41 per cent suggested they might.
A majority of respondents in Iran, 85 per cent, seemed to suggest that the protests and opposition to the regime needed an organizational structure. They said they were for creating a solidarity council or a coalition of opposition forces. Forty-two per cent agreed that the council should include those in Iran as well as Iranians abroad. Fifty-nine per cent expected the council to establish a transitional body and a provisional government.
The chance of such a council getting off the ground in Iran is remote at best. Moreover, Iranians were divided about what political system should replace the Islamic republic.
Inside Iran, 28 per cent and 32 per cent outside preferred a presidential system; 22 per cent in Iran and 25 per cent abroad favoured a constitutional monarchy, presumably with the return of Reza Shah Pahlavi, the Virginia-based son of the toppled Shah, while 12 per cent in Iran and 29 per cent outside want a parliamentary system.
Similarly, 60 per cent of those in Iran believed regime change was a prerequisite for meaningful change, but only 16% were proponents of a structural transformation and transition away from the Islamic Republic.
In the polling, Mr. Pahlavi emerged with a significant lead as the most popular potential candidate for membership in the council on a list of 34 names presented to respondents.
Reza Pahlavi, the son of the late Shah of Iran, speaks during an interview in Washington, DC, September 27, 2022. Photo: OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images
Other candidates included footballers Ali Daei and Ali Karimi and activists like Hamed Esmaeilion and Shirin Ebadi.
Nevertheless, the likelihood of a return to power of a Pahlavi may be even more remote than the most recent wave of anti-government protests toppling the Islamic regime.
Even so, the thought that a popular revolt, the nightmare of Gulf autocrats, would topple the regime they view as the greatest external threat to their security and restore a monarchy seems ironic at the very least.
Dr. James M. Dorsey is an award-winning journalist and scholar, a Senior Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute and Adjunct Senior Fellow at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, and the author of the syndicated column and blog, The Turbulent World of Middle East Soccer.
Surveys are easily manipulated further assessments of Iran’s political climate are necessary to get a more accurate picture. The West has targeted Iran as a Russian Allie with the joint drone factory in Russia to vastly increase drone production. The mistakes of Western leadership has lead them to a point of desperation.
Did a Mossad agent infiltrate South Front to post that ridiculous article quoting partisan ultra’s findings GTFOH
No, SF has a lot of Zionists/Wahhabis/Indians and they are feeding them with these articles. SF was called out by many for posting that ape – James M. Dorsey shit posts on here (for long time).
BTW people just ignore it (it was that bad) – SF did stop posting this guy shit but every time they have nothing to post they go and post his shit. You can even tell, why would they add this now. The riots in Iran is over and no one even talking about it but here SF posting this guy shit out of nowhere.
Here is the thing, why wouldn’t SF post anti-Russia report/articles? This guy is a yanqui that attack the Middle East and is fully linked to West MSM.
E.g. “the Middle East Institute is the oldest Washington-based institution dedicated solely to the study of the Middle East. It is a non-partisan think tank providing expert policy analysis, educational…” It is fully Zion own shit and so is that ape James. You can even look up his other shit and he NEVER dare to say anything bad about Israeli or Wahhabis (mostly).
That makes sense they do the same when forever quoting the London based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) giving him credit as an independent institution. When he is not running his dry cleaning business he is a one man working out of his kitchen in Coventry not London. He was also a member of the anti Assad delegation to Downing street so not impartial at all
Also from that ape guy, (For the UAE and others, its business as usual with Israel)
“For the United Arab Emirates, it’s business as usual as Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s newly formed government wastes no time in implementing hardline policies aimed at forcing Palestinians to give up on the notion of an independent state and accept Israeli rule.”
Changing the story and read this part “aimed at forcing Palestinians to give up on the notion of an independent state and accept Israeli rule”. The notion of an independent state? really… that guy sure isn’t own by West MSM A.K.A Zionists.
But SF thinks we should listen about what he has to say Iran riots – do we really? SF. The fact is SF never read his shit and they never care to explain why they even post such BS.
The deluded wicked masters of the west, losers everywhere, by now they hope that impossible events will happen. These idiots should care about their countries, as the revolutionary mega tsunami is about to exterminate them. It will be fun to watch them die.
“Surveyed in late December by the Netherlands-based Gamaan Institute, an overwhelming majority of the 158,000 respondents in Iran and 42,000 Diaspora Iranians in 130 other countries, rejected Iran’s Islamic regime.”
The only people who would even take part in that are traitors and people without Iranian citizenship. You can probably find millions of American respondents who will say they will kill Biden and slaughter the regime in the US.
SF the fuk is wrong with you guys? He pays you clowns doesn’t he? He is not known in MSM even on the topics of the Middle East (matters). Dose he dead ass – send you guys his shit?
I don’t understand how you people post his shit again and again – you all know people called you out for posting his shit and you fully know no one even read these. And those who do just make fun of him.
If you guys going to post such shit I can just read West MSM and what is point of you guys? Most of your other “reports” are dead stories/reports most of the sometimes – I haven’t even visit this site for weeks and I got news from RT. I did look at your other report and I can tell you I missed nothing new here. One guy on telegram dose your whole team work how?
If you guys really trying to balance thing that is one fuking wrong one to do it.
That ‘revolt’ is only popular with those western propagandists from the bbc who are trying to ferment a revolution. The bbc don’t want a revolution in their own country for obvious reasons but they are quite happy to cause one in countries they hate. All this talk of inclusion and equity yet the bbc still harbours hate for all things eastern.
Vanessa Beeley has just returned from a 2 weeks trip through Iran. That interview can be seen on UKColumn. Maybe some of these demo’s are being filmed somewhere else like they did with Libyan protests. One guy they have been reporting and pictured as being at these demos turns out to be an actor from Azerbaijan and the image used was a still from the drama.
The crazy thing is SF wouldn’t use Vanessa Beeley articles/reports which are fuking great and she dose interviews as well. But they use this nobody clown shit poster that is own by Zion.
SF most explain why they post this guy shit here. They are so many other good reporters out there that do their job against West MSM to tell the real stories and yet SF ironically use this guy shit.
I cannot say why SF do as you have explained. Maybe they use contentious material to get a reaction in the comments. In my own opinion, Vanessa’s stuff would bring in more readers. As also is the case with Eva Bartlett.
I agree, Peter Jennings.
Cyber warfare is now the main propaganda tool of the West.
Grow up SF where is the other 13 comments
I told you SF gets paid by that fuker James. xD
They then cry and dare to ask for support – like I said I’m not here for many reasons. I have so much freedom on RT but this small ass website that cries against censorships, censors everyone that dare to question their stupid actions.
Hi my name is James M. Dorsey, I suck cock for 50 shekels a piece, I love being a zionist whore and enjoy the support of this Zionist mouthpiece sF in distributing my legs wide open 💩
I love this publication and the fake accounts it distributes to help my cum drenched piece of 💩 be distributed. As a professional Zionist whore who eats dick for a living, it gives me joy to be able to spread my Hasbra whore propaganda on this platform. Thank you SF 🍆
Okay, who was that person that said – comments get removed base on like and dislike again? You are fuking wrong. Matter of fact – it seems disliked comments received more likes and aren’t removed.
SF how fuking rtded are you guy? You can’t just 24/7 blame it on “something is wrong with the comment section again” for the 1000th time Oops… sorry just forget about it. We don’t censors anyone… sure you didn’t and I know you read this before removing it.
A guy on Telegram which I fellow dose your whole job better and faster, remember that and he doesn’t get money nor dose he ask for it.
Iran wants to be the next ukraine? Some people never learn from others mistakes. Masochists everywhere.
I remember how much the Iranians HATED the evil US UK backed Shah. He was evil.