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An Iranian source told The Cradle there are 21 guarantees to discourage the US from withdrawing from the deal again
Originally published by AntiWar
As the US is considering Iran’s response to an EU proposal to revive the nuclear deal, known as the JCPOA, The Cradle reported on Thursday the details of the agreement Tehran put forward.
The Cradle report cited an unnamed Iranian source who said that the deal includes comprehensive sanctions relief for Iran and a series of measures meant to deter the US from withdrawing from the agreement in the future.
Iran has to shut down some centrifuges to bring its nuclear program back into the limits of the JCPOA. The source said that the centrifuges will be left in a state such that if the US pulls out of the deal again, the centrifuges could be restarted within a year.
“The platforms of the centrifuges will not be destroyed and their connections and electricity are collected, which brings our rebuildability to under one year and is a kind of guarantee,” the source said.
The source said that altogether, there are 21 guarantees written into the deal to alleviate Iran’s concerns about the US withdrawing from the agreement. Under one guarantee, if the US leaves the deal, there will be a three-year and one-month grace period during which foreign companies will be unaffected by sanctions.
It’s not clear if any guarantees that are reliant on US action would be enforceable on a future administration. Since the JCPOA is not a treaty, the next administration will not be bound by the agreement, and that issue has been a significant factor in the talks between the US and Iran.
During earlier negotiations in 2021, when the two sides were close to a deal, Iran wanted President Biden to give a guarantee that the US would stay in the agreement just for his term in office, but he refused, and the talks stalled.
According to The Cradle report, the ball is once again in Washington’s court. If the US approves the deal, its implementation will take place in stages. The first step would be the signing of the agreement in Vienna. Then, the US would cancel three executive orders signed by President Trump that withdrew the US from the JCPOA.
Iran would then have 60 days to test the sanctions relief by selling oil to Western countries and accessing Iranian funds that were frozen overseas. Sanctions against the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) will remain in place, although some will be eased by allowing Western business with Iranian companies that make “transactions” with the IRGC.
The Iranian government declined to verify the details of The Cradle report, but Iranian media has said the main outstanding issue with the US was over “guaranteeing the continuation” of the JCPOA.
It’s not clear when the US will respond to Iran’s proposal, and the Biden administration is coming under pressure from Israel and Iran hawks in Washington to scrap the negotiations altogether.
𝗠𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲 𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝘁𝗵 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝗱𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗲𝘅𝘁𝗿𝗮 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝗻 $𝟮𝟲𝗸 𝘀𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗱𝗼𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗮𝘀𝘆 𝗿𝗲𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗽𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗲 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝗼𝗻 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆. 𝗜 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗲𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗱 $𝟭𝟴𝟲𝟯𝟱 𝗳𝗿𝗼𝗺 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗻 (𝗻𝗮𝘂-𝟯𝟬) 𝗱𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗮𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗘𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝗯𝗼𝗱𝘆 𝗰𝗮𝗻 𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝗺𝗮𝗸𝗲𝘀 𝗺𝗼𝗿𝗲 𝗺𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘆 𝗼𝗻 𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘆 𝘄𝗶𝘁𝗵 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗶𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴.
𝘀𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗼𝘄=====>>> 𝗯𝘂𝘇𝘇𝗽𝗮𝘆𝟭.𝗯𝗹𝗼𝗴𝘀𝗽𝗼𝘁.𝗰𝗼𝗺
What is the point? Iran already has nuclear weapons…. This will be proven the day Israel makes the mistake of attacking Iran.
How difficult is it to build a nuclear device?? Get one type of radioactive material, turn it into a gas, spin it in several centrifuges since only tiny amounts of the second radioactive substance can sustain fission. Build a second device that brings all the radioactive substance together within a second to form a “critical mass” Kaboom….. Mushroom clouds. You can shoot one piece into another or collapse one cover into another to get your critical mass….
The key is calculating the masses that are safe without hitting the critical mass.
Nuclear bombs do not require engineers, require chemists!!!
Sooner than later, Israel will discover Iran is a nuclear power….. unfortunately knowing this will not help Israel.
I’m kinda’ confused why Tehran appears to be interested to resurrect a rotten corpse that wouldn’t be any better than a menacing zombie, they could simply ignore the existence of the conniving assholes of western bloc and just carry on whatever state of affairs they’re engaged with since they’ve already weathered the worst onslaught of the storm.
they want to get back all the money and other assets held by the west. Without some sort of agreement the USA will just keep stealing assets. I’m sure Iran can use the money as they don’t have magic printing press technology.
That’s a good question. The reason why Iran doesn’t nullify the deal is this: Iran was multiple under UNSC sanctions for the nuclear program and in addition to that, was placed under chapter VII of the UN charter (you can look it up, or I just point out that it’s the article which gives the UNSC the power to declare war on countries to create peace and all UN members are required to adhere to whatever they decide, from breaking of diplomatic relations to cutting commerce, putting embargo on, severing all and any kind of relations and much, much more).
In a nutshell, the 2015 JCPoA -although not even being read completely by our beloved former MFA and, negotiating team and even the then parliament (yes, they approved the whole damn thing in about 20 minutes!!!)- “suspended” the implementation of UNSC sanctions and took the country out of chapter 7, but with a catch: I repeat, the sanctions and chapter 7 aren’t lifted, but their implementation is being suspended. Then there’s the snap-back mechanism.
What is it? The deal says if the other parties “aren’t convinced” that Iran is doing its part… there’s a procedure yada yada yada…. and finally if still not satisfied, they’ll bring the matter to the UNSC where they vote to “continue suspension” of the sanctions and the bloody Chapter 7 thingy. The trick is in this wording: Continuation of suspension, meaning veto has no role to play here. No veto power can prevent an objection to continuation of suspension of penalties. So everything snaps back, all UNSC sanctions return and all members of UN are required by its charter to adhere to them and even worse, with the Chapter 7 thingy all are required to fight Iran!!
Of course the whole deal and procedure is much more complicated but I tried to explain it simply. It was so idiotic for our diplomats to fall for such idiotic terms (in their defence, how could they know? They didn’t even read the bloody thing, just rushed to sign it and receive their “presidential” medals. Their actions sometimes were so idiotic that even the Russians and Chinese protested!). Now because of that, we have to maneuver around it in the tiny wiggle room we have.
It also must be noted that there are procedures for Iran in case the other party didn’t adhere to their commitments and that is exactly what we are doing right now. But to finally get rid of all the punishment, the deal must be kept on life support until the duration of the deal is finished. This is called the “sunset clause” which is freaking the Zionists and warmongers out.
In case something is still unclear, I’ll try to explain. Just ask.
Very well explained, so from what l understand.. Iran is trying to adhere to UN rulings to avoid punitive repercussions from the international community if it veered off the rule. and what about the illegal unilateral of sanctions, trade embargo, asset freezing/confiscation, territorial annexation, war crimes, and piracy commited by some state members, what sort of punitive measures can UN apply to offending states if ever UN has got power to enforce its will?.. Or can we just recognise it as a tool of the yanks designed to push its agenda.
Really good to see you back here as of late. Thanks for your POV, I always listened to you. Your posts are appreciated.
Thank you, means a lot.
There’s an agreement between the people here (even the ones who are in a hurry for a deal) and it’s that the US’ guarantee is not worth a damn since their word is utterly worthless. It’s also increasingly evident that a nuclear-armed Iran is not a real issue for the US, it’s merely a pretext to prevent it from regrowing and become yet again its potential demands.
So, any deal will be a short one because the foundation is the same since the turn of the 19th century in regard to Iran. I think any possible agreement is due to the energy crisis which seems very scary this winter. I’m sure Iran’s energy is the last choice for the west and Europeans (specially considering that the country’s top level decision-makers proved they no longer count on the west, so any income from the energy won’t be fed back into Europe to buy things). I think they are counting on the energy from Kazakhstan, Baku and perhaps Turkmenistan to replace the Russian energy in the long run, but the pipelines and corridors aren’t ready yet (and might never be, depending how Armenia behaves and how we and Russians act in the Caucasus). Baku can’t supply their needs alone, so they need Kazakhstan’s as well which can’t be shipped in quantities they need (no pipeline, very low loading/tanker/unloading capacity over the Caspian, etc.). But with sufficient investment, time and perhaps a little war they might succeed.
Currently short of Russia, Iran is the only country able to supply them with enough oil. Perhaps they plan to pass this winter with oil from Iran and who knows what happens next year? Perhaps they even manage to fool us again into importing luxury cars, watches and appliances (we proved ourselves to be suckers for the expensive brands) or purchase +300 jetliners instead of taking the sales money and invest it or import production necessities from somewhere else?
Anyway, if they really accept the terms, so be it but we’re all sure it will be a temporary one until their urgent need is addressed. For guarantee, the real ones are what we hold inside the country, like the hardware, the knowledge and the material (which is against the JCPoA by the way if they do their part). Their acceptance of it is the best indication of their intention that they don’t see it as a permanent deal.
Iran should use the sales money to strictly import necessities just in case deal is sabotaged once again. Maybe some better medical equipment
I don’t see the point in reviving the nuclear deal I think Iran should weather the storm a bit longer the world is becoming more unstable which presents opportunities for Iran to export its energy according to visual capitalist Iran gdp increased from 1.08t in 2021 to 1.7t in 2022 around 60% increase Europe is becoming more and more unstable and with winter coming up and the gas crisis which Europe will have to face and tensions in the South China Sea and not to forget the new brewing war between hezbollah and Israel which if it does take place and it becomes a prolonged war I expect the region to explode I think Iran should build nuclear weapons and prepare for the strong collision which is going to take place in the near future.
I explained why Iran is adhering to what remains of the JCPoA in my reply to HINDOT KABAYO.
In regard to Iran’s GDP, please note that it’s calculated based on the US$. The problem is here there are several different exchange rates US$ against IRR. As long as they (WB, IMF, Visual Capitalist and others) do not specify what exchange rate they used in their calculation, I’m afraid it’s worthless. IMO, a GDP of $1.7tn is too much for the economy I’m dealing with in my country and unrealistic at the moment. It doesn’t mean I don’t love my country (some people protested and called me names when I wrote about the awful state of our automobile makers before). If we don’t look at things realistically and prefer what we like to be the reality, we’re condemning ourselves to failure and even doom.
About Hezbollah and the Zionist regime, Izzies accepted Lebanon’s terms for the territorial waters and asked for more time to back away. I don’t think the war breaks out soon. However, such war, as awful as war are, will eventually benefit the region by defusing the source of trouble.
It’s not only about territorial waters but about extracting oil and gas if Israel starts extracting before Lebanon then Israel would be taking a bigger share of the oil and gas in the area Lebanon will need around 1-2 years before they can extract oil and gas this is one of the main points hezbollah complained about and syed hassan nasrallah said if we can’t extract oil at the same time then no one will be able to extract oil.
Well it is about the waters actually. Izzies claimed some of Lebanon’s waters as their own (there’s an accepted way to draw lines in water as a continuation of overland borders, they drew lines so that the whole field becomes theirs in their -hehe- waters) and the gas fields are in that area. Some are entirely in the area that belongs to Lebanon (decided to be stolen by Izzies) and some are shared reserves (both sides of the actual line).
It’s going to interesting to see what happens. The EU and Blighty, on the one hand, flipping the finger to the Iranian admin over their nuclear aspirations, and on the other, hoping for an oil handout. I’m guessing, here in the west, it’s going to be a bleak winter.
You are full of shit, nigha. America is the largest oil producer in the World by a huge margin. It is like Saudi Arabia’s and Russia’s oil output put together 😆😆😆😆🐷🐷🐷 Pigs love and live for their BS.
IMHO, the Iranian admin shouldn’t be putting too much time to anything the USadmin says to them. The offices of the USadmin are littered with broken contracts and broken agreements. They walk all over them before they finally break them.
There is no reason why the USadmin should have any say, in any matter, anywhere.
Iran doesn’t seem too desperate. If they were desperate they would’ve settled for less by now, it’s nato who are scared and desperate. Looks like Iran learnt how to work without it
AIPAC foggats like Grahjam, Tramp and the military top brass must be shiiteing their panties.
Iran should seek compensation for the losses they incurred as a result of Yanky scum withdrawing from the original agreement.
Iran is long time a nuclear state. True, Iran doesnt have A WEAPON, it has several weapons LoL. It bought a few from Ukraine in early 2000 and it developed its know from collaboration with North Korea around the same time (early 2000s). It has all the know how and all the equipment. Tel Aviv will find out when it receives the 1st Nuke at the business end of a Sunburn mach 2 missile. I cant wait for israel to attack iran and be turned to Glass. I believe the Hezb also has a few Sunburn batteries. Wonder if The Mullahs handed Nasralah a Nuke or two as well. Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Clever Mullahs playing the JCPOA game to get their stolen money back from uncle Sam
IRAN will be very stupid signing this deal. There is nothing for IRAN in this deal. US will never keep their commitments and US will never pay any penalties and no one dare to force USA to pay any penalties. The agreement is a joke.
Iran better well get ironclad provisions into any new agreement that the US cannot withdraw unilaterally. Because otherwise this agreement is not worth the ink its signed with. Because unless Biden’s political witch hunt against Trump succeeds and convicts him on something, Trump will be back in office in 2024. And if he can tear it up, he WILL tear it up. And if Biden does manage to put Trump in jail then DeSantis will withdraw from it instead. He’s just as gung ho in making the world safe for Israel. Hell, come november when the Republicans take control of Congress Biden won’t be able to get this new agreement ratified.
So make it ironclad, and hurry up, cause in november the window of opportunity will close.