Sergei Chirikov/EPA
Written by TheSaker; Originally appeared at his blog
Finally, they met. Rex Tillerson spent several hours speaking with Foreign Minister Lavrov and, after that, with President Putin. Tillerson and Lavrov then held a rather bizarre joint press conference in which Tillerson mantrically repeated all the nonsense we are now used to hear about Russia while Lavrov logically demolished each US argument one by one. I suppose I could discuss the entire press conference word by word, but it wasn’t that interesting and, besides, I expect Tillerson to suffer from the “Kerry syndrome”: being on his best behavior while in Moscow only to turn rabid again as soon as he is back in DC. Still, those interested can read the full transcript of the press confence here.
Let me just summarize why, all in all, this trip is not bad news (can’t quite call it “good news” either)
For one thing – when two superpowers are talking to each other they are usually trying to avoid an escalation. Second, Tillerson met with Putin. If Tillerson had come to Moscow just to deliver the usual torrent of threats and accusations he would not have been seen by Putin (or, for that matter, by Lavrov). This means that something of some substance was discussed. Not agreed upon, but at least discussed. Third, while both parties admitted that they had plenty of differences, they did signal that they wanted an improvement in relations. I think that the following sentence by Tillerson is absolutely crucial:
I expressed the view that the current state of U.S.-Russia relations is at a low point and there is a low level of trust between our two countries. The world’s two foremost nuclear powers cannot have this kind of relationship.
I fully understand that coming from somebody most likely already infected with the “Kerry Syndrome” this might not be much. But, friends, this is better than nothing!
Please get me right: I am so horrified by the rabid insanity of the Trump administration that at this point I will be grateful to God “just” if there is not direct war between the USA and Russia. That is the only thing I still hold some hope for. Because other than that, the picture is very, very gloomy.
In prototypical Neocon-style, the Americans have completely painted themselves into a corner. They have made SO MANY frankly stupid statements about Syria and Assad that they simply cannot backtrack any more. Just like there is exactly ZERO chance that the Americans will ever accept an independent and honest investigation into what really happened during the latest chemical incident (I don’t call it an “attack” because I am not even sure that there was an attack). This is like 9/11 – there is NO WAY the US Nomenklatura will EVER allow an independent investigation into that event either. They are fully committed. They cannot go back now.
I often get the feeling that the Americans, knowing full well how wrong they are, often deliberately paint themselves into a corner just to be in a way “protected from reality” by being stuck; in a way, that makes them almost immune to fact-based and logical arguments. Whatever may be the case, Russia and the USA will not work together in Syria. And that means that the entire idea of the USA defeating Daesh is dead in the water forever. Russia and Iran might help the Syrians push Daesh out of most of Syria, but even that will not ‘defeat’ Daesh in a meaningful way. Furthermore, I have come to the conclusion that Israel has played a key role in the coup against Trump and that Israel will now do everything in its power to keep Daesh fighting for as long as possible (more about that in my next analysis next week). Daesh could most definitely be crushed by a joint US-Russian effort. Now, thanks to Trump Daesh, has a brand new lease on life. Well done, Donald!
So here is what is happening: the Trump policy, if you want to call it that, towards the war in Syria was delivered stillborn. The Americans themselves killed it with their fantastically stupid aggression against Syria and the “sarin gas” fairly tale they used as a pretext. Trump has been completely neutered, his “Mad Dog” will bark a lot but get nothing done, as for McMaster – he can go right back on writing more of the kind of strategy documents which got the US Army defeated pretty much everywhere.
That is option one.
Option two is infinitely worse: the crazies keep on doubling-down and we have WWIII. I prefer option one. This is why I think that the Tillerson to Moscow is a success: it moves the planet just a little closer to option one and a little further way from option two.
At this point in time, this is all we can still hope for: that the spineless imbeciles who run the USA today do not trigger WWIII. If they somehow manage NOT to trigger WWIII in the next four years, we will still owe them an immense debt of gratitude for that (even if we despise for everything else they will no doubt do next).
One more thing: make no mistake – the situation today is far more dangerous than the Cuban missile crisis.
During the Cold War both sides were ruled by rational men. Not necessarily kind men, but fundamentally rational men. It was self-evident for everybody involved that you could never, ever, take the risk of a real nuclear war breaking out. There is no doubt in my mind whatsoever that the Soviets never had any intention of invading western Europe. But IF they had done so, there is also no doubt in my mind that the USA would never have escalated to the level of strategic nuclear weapons. I have known plenty of senior US officers, ranging Navy intelligence officers, to senior analysts of the Office of Net Assessment, to officers who worked on the YF-22/23 program to one member of the Joint Chiefs. They all agreed that going to nuclear war was simply something which no US President would ever do. One of them put it simply “we are not going to trade Boston for Munich”. They were all patriots, but they knew crazy when they saw it and war between the USA and the USSR is a crazy, civilization ending, idea.
Nowadays we clearly have already two US administrations which are willing to engage into what I call a “game of nuclear chicken” with Russia because they are too stupid to realize that Russia will not back down when cornered (and she is cornered in both the Ukraine and Syria) and that Russia can simply wipe the entire USA off the face of the earth (and the USA can do likewise to Russia). When I hear of the notion of imposing a no-fly zone over Syria against the will of Russia I get a knot in my stomach because I fully understand where this could lead.
This is much worse than the Cuban missile crisis and it will, alas, last much longer.
I hope and pray that Tillerson will not completely forget his words about two foremost nuclear powers cannot have this kind of relationship when he comes back to DC and that he will find the courage in himself to repeat these words when faced with the hysterical crowds demanding blood in Congress, in the US Ziomedia and in the Executive Branch swamp.
As for Trump, let him get his foreign policy advice from Ivanka just like Clinton got his from Hillary. The damage is already done. Now they both belong to the same trash heap of history.
Thing is that the Cold War has become a thing most people don’t remember. Our fears today revolve around Muslim nutters committing the odd terrorist attack, not nuclear war. But while it sucks to be the target of such an attack, the odds of that happening to you are still less then a traffic accident or lightning strike.
Back in the 80’s, when I was in high school there was terrorism too. There was a lot of terrorism too. The IRA was very active (if you lived in the UK you had a far greater chance to be killed in an IRA attack back then then a Muslim attack now). In Germany you had the RAF, Spain had ETA, France and Italy had their left wing radical nutters too. And Palestinian terrorists loved to hijack planes and Hezbollah (there’s a reason nobody really loves them) did some fair share of terrorists attacks as well.
But did we worry about those? Fuck no! We all thought the world was going to end in nuclear holocaust. We kept a reasonable perspective because we had bigger things to worry about. 50.000+ nuclear warheads aimed at every imaginable place and then some on the world. Nobody expected a conventional showdown in the plains of Germany to last longer then a few days before the nukes would start flying.
Looking back at that it boggles the mind why people actually think we can fight the Russians in a conventional war and not be nuked to kingdom come? I can only conclude that after a quarter of a century with no threat of global thermonuclear war we’ve totally forgotten that fear. That fear that kept us sane has been allowed to slip in favor of emotional hysteria that blinds us to logical cool thinking. People seem to have forgotten the dictum that when a nuclear armed power is losing a conventional war, the chances increase that he has nothing to lose by breaking out his nuclear arsenal. As the generations that have witnessed the horrors of nuclear attacks in Japan and the nuclear testing in the 50’s and 60’s die off, those for whom it was just stories, become more reckless and reckless.
yes, you would think that the concept of MAD would deter nations from starting global thermonuclear war, but i feel that maybe the elites have a plan to survive the war, but why would they wanna live in a nuclear-ravaged world? doesnt make sense, unless theyre going to another planet or something lol
The real extreme nutters believe in rapture as they will be the ones saved. Bunch of delluded brain dead morons.
Even if they managed to go to some other planet which is a pure pipe dream they would have eventualy finished off each other and that would have been the end of their rapture. Take them wherever you want but you won’t take out of them their second nature of a killer.
It doesn’t have to be anything as weird as that. Thing is, the US has been the world’s sole superpower for way too long, and the American political leadership has basically disappeared up its own ass. They’re used to the rest of the world rolling over and do as they’re told as they’ve been without real opposition for way too long.
Plus they do seem to think that in a game of nuclear chicken the Russians will be the first to blink.
I think American elites do believe they can wage nuclear war and survive. I think they believe Russia’s nuclear force would be lucky to get off the ground let alone make it to the USA and even if they did there’s missile defence to save them.
They believe in the superiority of their weapons because they are after all Americans and America always wins…. have you ever seen the Americans lose in the movies?
America is one part Madison Ave one part Hollywood and 2 parts Wall Street. If the salesman from Raytheon says missile defence works and Wall Street can make a buck it’s going to happen whether it really works or not. It doesn’t matter that every physicist in the USA will tell you it doesn’t work because countermeasures, speed and evasion will always be cheaper, easier and capable of defeating any missile defence. It didn’t work in the Gulf war against WW2 vintage ‘Scud’ missiles. Politicians get their campaigns funded, generals get their plumb defence jobs, Wall st investors make a killing and Americans get told by Hollywood and the MSM that they are invincible.
Just last week I read about a USAF general wanting a cloaking device “like in Star Trek” for his tanker fleet. Talk about living in a fantasy world. Even on Star Trek it’s not the earthlings that have cloaking devices…it’s the Romulans…..this idiot not only wants a fantasy weapon but a fantasy weapon that’s beyond earth technology even in the fantasy.
Either the USA believes they can send Russia and China down the garden path of military cloaking devices that will lead to bankruptcy or they really believe it. With the faith and money the USA puts in missile defence and stealth aircraft the evidence points to the latter.
well if they are so confident in their missile defense, i think they would have already nuked russia a while ago
A raving lunatic might have a few moments of coherence, but they are still a lunatic. Their true state is insanity and it would be irresponsible in the extreme to take a few moments of lucidity as a recovery. Of course the USA is not just lunatic it is evil.
I just listened to an interview with Trump. We learned how he was having a delicious meal and just before starting his chocolate cake desert he authorized the missile attack on Syria. I wonder if he enjoyed his chocolate cake. This is the sort of scum that is america. This filth needs to be flushed from human existance.
im convinced he has the mind of a five year old lmao
Under statement. Call spade a spade.
And the lexicon of a 3 year old.
The chocolate cake was the ‘bestest ‘ cake ever in the world. Ever. It was fantastic. :)
The clown actually said “Iraq” instead of “Syria”. He remembers everything about the cake he ate but doesn’t remember the name of the country he bombed.
yes, there is a glimmer of hope because tillerson and putin go back and have history together, but can that overcome the zionists bloodlust? i hope so. russia and usa are better off being friends, and conquering bigger and better things, like zionism, daesh, and space/mars/beyond
Don’t fool yourself. There is no glimmer of hope whatsoever when it comes to US establishment. True hope is to be found in God of the Bible alone. Cursed be the man that trusteth in man, and maketh flesh his arm, and whose heart departeth from the LORD. Jer 17:5
There needs to be a small confrontation to avoid a big confrontation that leads to nuclear war. There are Neocons from the 80’s that love the ‘madman’ theory. They believe that Russia will always back down to any show of U.S. force. Blast the next U.S. cruise missile attack against Syria out of the sky.
Rex, if they offer you a Polonium flavor Ice cream, politely pass……..
Yet another thoughtful article from The Saker. Bravo
Presidents meet Presidents , Putin , maybe should have passed on meeting Tillerson . Despite the good will , hospitality is usually lost on Americans , and a message needs to be sent that attacking Syria is not the path to peace .
I think they made a secret deal. Trump fired those missiles to keep McCain from impeaching him and Putin knows it; and they both know that 6 old planes are a small price to pay for world peace.