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Russia and the DPR troops are moving forward, coming closer to the realization of the two main goals of the special military operation: the denazification and demilitarization of Ukraine.
The Russian military is steadily destroying military facilities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) and suppresses the main Ukrainian nationalist forces, including the Azov regiment blockaded in the city of Mariupol.
At the same time, the advance of Russian forces has almost stopped on the Donbass front lines. The Russian grouping to the north of Kharkiv risks being blockaded. The Ukrainian Army is set to wage war on Russian territory. And Russia’s efforts on the demilitarization of Ukraine are partially offset by military supplies provided by Kiev’s allies.
The regrouping and strengthening of positions by both sides has been going on in Eastern Ukraine for about 2 weeks. Both sides are preparing for the bloody battle for the Donbass.
Russian, DPR and LPR forces are preparing to encircle the most powerful AFU grouping of troops numbering up to 100 thousand servicemen. The AFU is also transferring all available forces to the eastern front in order to stop the Russian offensive.
So far, despite fierce fighting and heavy artillery fire in some areas, the front lines in the Donbas region remain almost frozen by positional battles.
From Izyum and Rubezhnoe, to Popasnaya and Ugledar, the situation remains without noticeable changes. Unlike in Mariupol, where the remnants of the AFU, including the most ardent nationalist formations, are rapidly losing their positions.
On the night of April 12, the remnants of Ukrainian troops surrounded on the territory of the Ilyich plant attempted to escape from the city in the northern direction. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, a group of Ukrainian servicemen numbering up to 100 people in armored vehicles tried to fight their way out of the factory. This breakthrough attempt was thwarted by air strikes and artillery. Three Ukrainian tanks, five infantry fighting vehicles, seven vehicles and up to 50 personnel were destroyed. Another 42 Ukrainian servicemen laid down their weapons and surrendered.
At the same time, while Moscow claims that almost no one managed to escape, DPR officials say that some of the Ukrainian soldiers managed to scatter around.
Nevertheless, such desperate attempts to get out of the encirclement indicates the hopelessness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine left in Mariupol.
On April 11, the Head of the DPR said that the port of Mariupol had come under the control of the republic.
In Mariupol, the last important point of defense of the AFU remains the territory of Azovstal. Some hotspots of resistance remain in the coastal areas and in the Ilyich plant.
Meanwhile, taking advantage of the tactical pause in the East of Ukraine, Zelensky gave the order to go on the offensive in the territory of Russia. A video was spread online showing the order to attack on Russia’s Belgorod region being read to the Ukrainian nationalist battalion “Tornado”.
As a result, an increased level of terrorist danger has been declared in the regions of Russia adjacent to Ukraine.
An organized offensive by the Ukrainian Army against Russia at the moment seems unlikely. Nevertheless, the border regions of the Russian Federation are regularly suffering Ukrainian attacks.
On April 12, railway tracks were damaged in the border area of the Belgorod region.
On April 11, the village of Shabelskoye in Krasnodarskiy kray was shelled by the AFU likely with Tochka-U ballistic missiles from Mariupol.
In the village of Tavrichesky in Crimea, a Ukrainian drone was shot down by Russian air defense forces.
A Ukrainian Bayraktar TB2 attack drone was destroyed off the coast of Crimea.
What was proclaimed to be a special military operation is close to turning into a prolonged full-fledged war in Europe. It seems that the only way to avoid this is a fast Russian ‘victory’ on the front lines. However, while the Kremlin claimed no clear vision on what does the ‘end of the military operation’ mean on the battlefield, as well as due to the efforts of the West, the Ukraine war is moving into an unending phase.
Putin has already explained that a quick and swift maneuver would cause losses on the Russian side, as also initially seen in the first days. Russia wants a fight and doesn’t to want to end this soon.
We’re long past the phase where the Ukrainian army has proven it’s total incompetence. 90% of the mechanized force is already destroyed and is now solely reliant on NATO supplies. At this point Ukraine is just playing for time. We will keep committing false flags, keep firing missiles on our own citizens and just hope we keep getting more NATO supplies.
nato is running the whole thing since 2014. azov is on the leash held by nato
So what. It can go on for years. Until Russia collapses like USSR did.
Ukraine doesn’t need tanks. They have Millions of soldiers and NATO supplies Javelin or Stinger to every one of them. Those are foolproof so many more Russians are going to die. Sure, Russians can use rockets and artillery, but NATO can send suicide drones in droves. NATO can’t lose this war. Even Ukraine can’t lose. They have already won at Kyiv and that is the key point. Russia is losing because they can’t win any more.
“quick and swift maneuver would cause losses on the Russian side”
a slow and steady maneuver will only see more and more ukro troops flooding in from Kiev, now that the russkies have abandoned the capital.
So being slow will cause the most russian causalties.
@Anal-yist. Long way from Kiev to Donbas, especially on foot. If they use a few remaining military vehicles most Ukros will never reach Donbas.
Have the russkie reinforcements arrived yet? Doesn’t look like it.
few reinforcements required to chase nazis retreating to trailer parks in arkansas
How would you do it when those osvoboditeli have Javelins and Stingers. Good luck with that. Sooner or later you run out of artillery grenades and rockets.
It is 700km. The reinforcements should be there any time now. Even by foot.
I’d second that. At that point its fair to assume the US logistics don’t stop at the Ukrainian border. The same goes for the distribution of the infantry weapons like switchblade, javelin etc. These are perfectly fine suited to manifest the existing frontline in Donbas. Time is not on Putins side.
amerikan hillbillies very stupid—I hope this conflict lasts at least 3 years—when all ucrappy infrastructure medieval, all ukrop females become hookers in Moldova, nazis eat rats sodomize each other in pre-electric society, every weapon that crossed polish border obliterated by kinzhal or sukoi—nato becomes Zimbabwe colony—halfwit crissy try another senile lgbt in san fag Cisco
You are bit deilusioned. Think again. Why Russian army run away from Kyiv? Think hard. I’m going to help you – because Ukrainians were flooded with Javelins and Stingers and they send everything to defend their capital. Yes, they sacrificed Mairiupol because it wasn’t important at that time. They can sacrifice several thousand soldiers out of millions they have.
In my opinion Russia could have blown up all the bridges over the Dnipro river if they want to slow down Ukrainian reinforcement. I think Russia want to surround and destroy most of UAF at Donbass
you learned symbolic logic fro crack head in orygun trailer park
If ukro troops leave Kiev, our troops will take it unopposed.
haven’t you guys learnt from the Germans/ late war Soviets in ww2? Decisive victories need to be won quickly, the faster the speed of the operation the better. Slow offensives are costly and will eventually stall completely.
A major Russian offensive on Donbas has been anticipated by the UA for the last 8 years, but in particular during the last few weeks. Ukraine has the manpower advantage as Russia is still reluctant to fully mobilize and Ukraine will soon have a steady supply of Western Arms.
No, no, no, Herpy. Russian tactic was always to suck the enemy in (Hitler/Stalingrad, Napoleon/Borodino, etc.), then encircle and destroy. UAF is already surrounded from three sides in Donbass
We’ll see. But I can’t see Russians win that encirclement in Donbas. They had hard time to finish Mariupol. And they had flanks covered. If Russia wants to encircle Kramatorsk they are going to be exposed to counterattack everywhere. There are thousands of Javelins waiting. They will bleed to death. I think that Putin won’t do the same mistake twice. Most likely he will declare victory now.
Time is ours, the longer the fight the weaker the russian fighting capacity while western stays untouched. Russia already had to change laws to get sufficient canon folder, 60.000 forced new victims. All over Russia and if possible from outside Russia equipment and soldiers are retrieved. Ukraine fight for all they love, russians fight because they must.
Very true Johan. I used to think that Putin is too clever to let this happen, but I’m not so sure any more. Not after the botched Kyiv attack.
Such genius is Putin. By not waging a quick, decisive war he gives Finland and Sweden all the time they need to join NATO. Genius. :D
Decision not to partially mobilize reservists is baffling. Something that should have been done on day 1.
Russia announced last week that 135,000 reservists to replace and replenish tired out front line troops .
Got a source for that? Of course you don’t.
His ukro boyfriend from twitter.
135000 is the annual spring draft of conscripts. But you see chatter of other numbers of reservists,discharged soldiers, convicts, Chechen’s etc. getting mobilized something is going to replace losses that Putin doesn’t want the public to know about.
https://www.axios.com/russia-new-conscripts-ukraine-invasion-e95c2650-cbc8-4d11-8f36-013f98c0f1a9.html
I read these reservists will control conquered Ukraine territory as it is integrated into Russia, Ruble is already being used. The battle hardened troops will carry on the advance west.
those are the same amount of conscripts Russia gets every April. This SOP.
Reservists should rather be mobilized for defence inside Russia. But yes – now is the time.
They have called up 60,000. A good start.
The same with Ukraine. They simply have too many men and too few arms. They don’t need that many people. The war can go on for decades. The difference is that Ukraine have many more battle hardened and more resolved soldiers now.
Come on : Blitzkieg on Lugansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkov, Mikolayev and ODESSA. Done job go home. Let them keep Sumy, Poltava and Kirovograd
Patience, patience. War is won by logistics. A substantial part of the AFU that was held around Kiev will most probably be heading to the Donbass now. But with no logistics. What do they have? Manpads – lots and lots of them. Those are good for defending a city in urban warfare. How will that help in the countyside against Krasnopol and TOS?
Once the AFU is minus 100 thousand soldiers and has no fuel and no logistic supplies, the dominoes will fall quickly.
An attacking army has to have at least 3:1 manpower compared to the defenders. If they have 50-60 thousand ukros in the Donbas, that would mean 150-180k russkies.
That is pretty much all of the attacking russkies, and what happens if the ukros just send in more troops to defend?
This is going bad. Russia is losing TIME. Have the russian reinforcements from the abandoning of Kiev arrived? Doesn’t seem like it.
When will the russians finally take Mariupol? If they do it AFTER the ukros send in reinforcements from Kiev, then they will lose a HUGE opportunity.
This is turning out to be a MEAT GRINDER for both sides.
Mark my words: Regardless who eventually ‘wins’, there will only be losers in this war.
“An attacking army has to have at least 3:1 manpower compared to the defenders.” Ridiculous nonsense you pulled out from your butt. I can name 100s of wars/battles when attacking army was equal or even significantly smaller than defenders. 1000s even. From Alexander and Hannibal to WW2 and the Six-days war.
3:1 is sometimes used for *SIEGES* but that’s also arbitrary. You have no idea wtf you are babbling about, you just read something on some dumb gay site, but you can’t even quote it properly because you’re an idiot.
Hey Trolstoy it called the 3:1 rule here is a book you can read on it. Assessing the Conventional Balance: The 3:1 Rule and Its Critics It’s well know the defenders often have an advantage especially in an urban environment which is probably why the Ukrainians stuck to hit and run tactics in the country side and stood their ground in urban environments. And why Russia abandond the attempt in Kiev . You can see the number is the final clearing of Aleppo it was around 2:1 and clearing Mosel was around 7:1 keep in mind the defenders in these cities didn’t have much in the way of advanced weapons or access to intelligence or military professionals.
When you look at the the math and statistics of this war, it doesn’t look good for Putin.
stupidity–amerikan specialty
Javelins are fool proof. Even stupid yankee can take out T-90 full of russian geniuses.
“I can name 100s of wars/battles when attacking army was equal or even significantly smaller than defenders.”
Right, when you have a talented general, who can use surprises, maneuvers, deceptions, etc.
In modern warfare, with everything surveiled by satellites, troop movements are easy to see.
The initial success of the russian invasion was that even though ukraine saw the army buildup on the border, it believed to be only for show.
so yeah, nowadays everything can be seen in minutes.
My point still stands. This will turn into a bloody meat grinder.
I agree it will be a meat grinding war of attrition. Will it be worth it? For the Russian people? For the Donbas? Probably not.
The element of surprise is over, Russian superiority in numbers of troops is over, Russia still possess more tanks but with the proliferation of ATGMs that may not be much of an advantage.
Every way you look at it , both side will suffer greatly. The human cost will ensure a place in hell for Putin and his facilitators.
stupid Idaho hillbilly
Endless war is fine with most EU and NATO countries.
TOS can be taken out with suicide drones or with artillery. NATO is talking about sending long range high precision artillery but I doubt it is needed. Also infantry with man pads can dug in anywhere. Even in the countryside.
no blitzkrieg but grind, conquer , control and absorb.
But isn’t Sumy only 350 miles from Moscow, and therefore one of the likeliest places where the U.S. regime is hoping ultimately to place its nuclear missiles?
This is why the actions around Kiev by Russian forces is very puzzling. Their presence there had some utility to prevent diversion of Ukrainian units to fight in the east. However, Russia simply pulled out losing that advantage. Their presence there also had positive effects on negotiation. Without that pressure the Ukrainians feel confident enough to change the terms of any peace agreement. Similarly having some presence inside Ukraine around the borders, provided protection against Ukrainian attempts to move on Russian territories. Once again Russian pull out form those areas seems baffling with regard to supporting the overall goals and objectives. Russia needs really to get it’s act together in terms of a coherent strategy. There are options to fortify borders from within Russia (appears to be the case) and then either going for a rapid or slow approach to liberating the two regions. However, this does not fix the removal of a ‘pressure’ point on the Jugular – Kiev.
Setting up an ambush – the trick is to not make it look like an ambush??
If there was a concept of surprise, then attacking to create a full link to the Moldovan boarder would make sense and simply keep expanding that way until a deal comes on the table could make sense. The problem with just an LPR and DPR strategy is that it is just that – it only implicitly deals with the NATO, demilitarisation and denatzification requirements.
IMO That was the idea: an overwhelming full scale attack from multiple directions; first phase to encircle Kiev from both north and east; then join those forces and go south; second phase join them with forces advancing from the south from kherson, nikolaev; then again go to moldavian border. Blitzkrieg to completely split ukraine in half or 3-4 separated areas. It didn’t work. Simply as that. This is plan B: slow, attritional grind.
It’s just plan B has to be more than LPR and DPR if the war is to end, for that just sets up eternal conflict – a frozen conflict (which would suit Russia) will not be allowed. So Russia needs something else to settle the matter, even encircling 100,000 will not be enough. The West will keep providing weapons, and Ukraine will keep supplying bodies to use them. What I am struggling with is the real plan from Russia to end the war, for the west won’t let it end if they can help it. There are just too many Ukrainians to use up!
“There are just too many Ukrainians to use up!”
Exactly. This is turning out to be a war of attrition with roughly matching forces, in other words: a MEAT GRINDER.
Mark my words: Regardless who eventually ‘wins’, there will only be losers in this war.
I think that the key thing is to stick to the goals – no NATO or foreign troops and weapons for Ukraine, demilitarisation, denazification and acceptance by Ukraine of LPR, DPR and Crimea as being lost territories. Russia needs a strategy to deliver on those goals in a definitive manner – read not a never ending conflict. That is the challenge really. At the moment there is no chance of NATO expansion and stationed threatening weapons, there is a severely reduced Ukrainian military and more to follow. However, the denazification and lost territories are tricky ones to resolve unless you threaten the very existence of Ukraine as a state (the western baby) in the bargaining process.
NATO is not keen to send any troops to Ukraine. However, they will glady send weapons. So Russian is losing this point unless they occupy the whole Ukraine. EU has no incentive to accept Russian occupation of Crimea or Donbas. Russia has nothing to offer. I don’t know what is denazification. Putin looks to me the closest think to nazism and fashism really. You russians have those terms mixed up. Everyone who doesn’t love Russians is probably nacist in your eyes. Well, it is the whole Europe now.
I agree. It’s not looking good for the soldiers on the ground. If I was to take the absolute best scenario for Russia then it would play like this:
1) Russia invades Ukraine with a three pronged attack. North, South and East 2) East is the main target for Russia (Donbass and Lugansk) 3) The Kiev attack is a diversion, albeit a poorly planned one. Intention was to tie down the 100k forces around Kiev from reinforcing the east 4) With Ukrainian forces pinned down in North and South, Russia embarks on operation to cleanse the east of Nazis 5) While the operation is underway in the east, Russia uses long range strikes to take out Ukrainian armor, logistics, command and control, heavy SAMs etc. 6) Russia feels enough damage has been done as of 5) to withdraw forces from the North and use them to bolster the East 7) Plan to totally liberate the east begins …
Precisely. You should continue with:
8) Russia redeployment is forcing Kiev guarding 100k AFU into leaving Kiev to save Eastern fronts 100k AFU encircled and under Russia final attack.
If Kiev AFU don’t help now, they will be left alone to face full Russia force after AFU in Eastern fronts is eliminated. They have no choice.
9) When Kiev 100k AFU arrived Eastern front, it will be also encircled and cutoff from West supply lines without fuel. They will be eliminated by aerial and artillery bombardment.
10) Russia will then accomplish all its goals occupying entire East Ukraine separated by the river, leaving Kiev intact as Slavs historic origin city for negotiation instead of a chaotic Ukraine without gov.
Russia doesn’t want to occupy whole Ukraine fighting a endless war, so a West Ukraine is required to let East Ukraine resisting force to flee there.
After East consolidation, Russia will continue its West regular demilitarizing while develop East Ukraine into prosperous heavy industrial belts. West Ukrainians will find out themselves the difference of been USNato canon fodders and Russia ally.
Frozen conflict suits NATO and EU. Why? Because we fear strong Russia and for a good reason. Ukraine fighting for us with our weapons is a win situation. After a decade of fight Russia will probably fall apart like SSSR did.
I don’t buy this. If you looked at the map it seemed to be what was happening but the truth on the ground was Russia simply didn’t have the numbers to do this. It’s impossible to hold so much ground with only 200k soldiers.
The only thing I can think of is some fake intelligence was fed to Russia that suggested there would be mass surrendering when Russian forces moved in. I can’t see how Russian intelligence could have bought this nonsense though so again I have no clue what the Kiev incursion was about
I think Jugular in that case is not Kiev (it would be if initial assault caused enough panic for complete capitilulation, and i think that was a wild card to end this mess quickly), but in this phase of the battle turning point would be encirclement of ukrainian grouping in Donbass. If / when it happens, they will crawl to the table.
I think encircling 100,000 Ukrainians is great May 9th preparation, and if it was 2014, then I think it may possibly work in getting a deal – as it was with Minsk. However, we are in a different ball game here, where the west is fully engaged in a war with Russia by proxy. That means no deal will be forthcoming as long as Ukraine can just deliver bodies to use western weapons in order to keep Russia at war and incurring losses . Russia would need cut off those weapons by exerting a control at the borders to change that or develop a highly efficient way to disrupt supplies – continual demilitarisation by technology.
I believe apart from a diversion it was for showing the Ukrainian people who their government is by how they are treated now that the Russian have left
I honestly believe either the strategy around Kiev was wrong (but implemented) or it became impossible to implement the real intention – nothing else seems to make sense in terms of analysis.
Sometimes when you are dealing with the G7 supplying intel, logistics, money etc. You have to use trial and error to find the proper option that works. The USA and G7 put their heads together trying to beat Russia so Russia is actually fight a coalition of forces without boots on the ground.
In the end, the G7 loses.
Absolutely that makes sense, that strategy needs change based on the factual situation on the ground – a full proxy war with the west. So what should that new Russian strategy be – should it be shock and awe with aviation on the DPR front lines, simple attrition on those lines – traditional battle. Should Russia just help LPR and DPR realise their countries themselves and focus more with Russian forces to generate a territorial position and pressure point that Kiev could not refuse e.g… cut them off from the sea, re=pressurise Kiev and cut off the western supplies as a ‘curtain’. Basically what should Russia do and what is it capable of doing, to end the War on its terms.
I agree. I don’t know what Russia’s strategy is here. That business around Kiev was a total disaster. Russia claims it was a diversion to hold Kiev forces in place so they could not reinforce the east. I don’t know. Ukraine appears to be reinforcing the east just fine after Russia withdrew from Kiev.
Yes adding in Putin’s latest statements, all I can think is that the losses started to look too high in that business around Kiev. The result – it looks as if those losses were for nothing. I am not saying it was a bad thing to change strategy, but it does look as if it was abandonment of a strategy and thus a total failure to pin down forces to prevent eastern deployment. Worse I think it blew away a large amount of leverage at the negotiating table. Was there a better course of action available e.g. Allepo-ing Kiev?
Well Russia didn’t have the man power to take and hold the Donbas plus hold north and east of Kiev. The northern troops performed a salient advance and as a consequence were subject to constant supply line attacks and were taking too many casualties. In the end they didn’t even have enough military transports to evacuate the troops and were hauling them out in dump trucks.
They tried to take kieve and realized they couldn’t. Massive miscalculation by russia. Idiots in the kremlin
Drinking Kool-aid?
In meanwhile Zelewsky did arrest the country’s most prominent opposition leader Viktor Medvedchuk. Do you not notice analogies between Zelewsky and Pinochet dictatorship? Even the Chilean leader was revered by all Westerners, the Israelis and even the Vatican. He did kill hundreds of thousands of Chileans and all opposition parties set outlaw
And paraded him on TV. So much for a democracy …
Source? I’m from the neck of the woods and your fantastic numbers don’t add up. About 2000 leftist guerrillas, 800 military and police, plus roughly 300 innocents died, about 80% during the first 5 years. That’s it, from leftist “official” sources.
Also, pinochet became a pariah, no one “revered” him. Leftist guerrillas used american guns btw, you can check the FPMR gang logo, it looks like an M16. The US did an arms embargo, and sabotaged our fruit exports. Funny. Maybe because old pino didn’t give back the nationalized copper mines, who knows. Also CIA declass files show they weren’t involved in the 1973 putsch, but the leftist liars insist on that lie…
He was BFF with Margaret Thatcher, who protected him from international justice prosecution. Remember. Pinochet was the worst!
whoever wrote this article is a bit impatient and nervous. one reads this sort of stuff on SouthFront from time to time and the following day it is all turned upside down. i don’t think the writer has any inside information on what RU is about. just report the news and don’t sensationalize might be a good plan. :)
Certainly NATO can prolong the war. But Ukraine’s supporting infrastructure has been largely destroyed. Whatever still remains, is there at Russia’s leisure. Without any supporting infrastructure/fuel Ukraine can’t pose any serious threat in the long term no matter how many weapons are sent there.
I think they are just helping to re-calibrate for what may be achievable for Russia. DPR/LPR may have to go back to Ukraine, RF will probably need to sue for peace and hope to hold onto Crimea
Your decision to drink wood alcohol was not a good one.
Maintain the frontlines gar in the east and destroy everything which comes From the EU ans enters in the country without risking Ur soldiers. Low cost Long war. The best Way, considering the Situation. The time IS not on the EU side. Ukro-Land will be Not a real State in the Next 30 years
Russia made big blunders in the beginning of the operation and the war will be very long and bloody and time is not on Russia side.
Russia will be damage after the war and we don’t know what the end game Russia is planning. Many Conquer territory and later give away many Russian solders die for nothing and in the west this is seen as Russia is weak and can be finish by NATO.
Russia General Command and leadership made the same mistake in Syria, soft and please the West. You can’t fight war from Moscow office.
But they didn’t make big blunders, apart from Kharkov perhaps. Yes, some unnecessary losses, but that’s to be expected and nowhere near Ukro-NATO propaganda. Yes, they very too relaxed and soft in the beginning. But overall it was a moderately successful offensive over large territory. The problem is – it was a grandiose plan and they simply didn’t have enough troops for the war of this scale. They still don’t.
What happened in Kharkov that would be a big blunder can you explain?
A whole tank column entered the center of the city and was annihilated, probably the worst error of all the Russian operation.
The Russian campaign in Syria was BRILLIANT.
The Russian game is “regime change”. They have tried dealing with (Z)elensky, before the war and after it but the comedian is not negotiating in good faith at all. So the strategy of Russia seems to be to force Ukraine to have a reckoning, a reality check, and depose him somehow.
I concur that the Kremlin’s calculations on this matter were surely optimistic initially (I recall Putin appealing in the very first days of the invasion to the Ukrainian Army to rebel, what is almost naive, especially coming from someone with secret service background) but in the mid term (say Summer, Fall at worst), Ukraine will have to face reality: after all Russian gas is (ironically enough) still flowing through Ukraine and into Ukraine and that’s a key valve that can be closed on any pretext at any time.
Once you lost all Donbass and many other rather Russian-speaking areas, including probably in due time Kharkov and Odessa, and under dire threat of freezing in winter (no US LNG will be able to arrive, either directly by sea or indirectly via reversed pipelines, Europe has not enough LNG port facilities), Ukraine will have to come to terms with reality.
Russia can afford to be patient, after all they are using the sanctions largely in favor of their own commodity-based export economy, challenging (with Chinese and Indian help) something that may be even more important than Ukraine itself: the US-centric financial world order.
Wow, sounds like the reality is starting to sink in that this is not going well for Russia.
Does it sound like it’s going well for the failed Ukrainian CIA project? Better or worse off than 2013?
The war will end when Ukraine position worsens enough for them to see the only way out are negotiations. In that case best possible outcome for Ukraine would be to agree on initial russian terms and accept loss of Donbass and Crimea, and bind themselves to neutral status. It depends how effective the upcoming offensive will be, but i can imagine that war will end quickly if Russia manages to encircle and seal off the cauldron in Donbass. Unless if Russia will want more than just that, afterall they control whole Kherson and about of 80% Zaporozhye regions. I somehow think they will not leave those territories easily. Specially not after what happened with Bucha staged incident.
I dont see the west/ukraine giving up this fight until Russia is literally knocking on zellerboys door, after theyve killed every last ukrop nazi, wherever he is
The EU’s economy going into a major economic crisis will signal the end, as the EU will have enough problems to deal with.
nope, gas will be replaced with algerian,qatar or norwegia gas. ITs just matter of time. Europe dont need russian gas.
it will be replaced with gas from your farting mouth.
US promised EU with 150 millions units LPG supply by 2030, when EU needs 5,000 millions units to replace Russia supplies. Qatar & others have small capacity supplies too.
It will take few years to construct costly LPG terminals and storage tanks too.
Wise move to pull back from Kiev. If things escalate then you don’t risk losing valuable infantry in enemy territory..
From Kiev west side yes, that front was long and exposed to some surprise attack from behind. But i didn’t really understand why they pulled out of Chernigiv region. I mean northeast side of river was close to be secured, pretty much all that was left were eastern Kiev suburbs like Brovary, and Chernigiv itself. They could just blow up all the bridges over Dniepr and Ukrainian army would be cut off, almost impossible to re-supply. But apparently that region was never a priority, also it has low % of Russian speakers, and that aspect can easily help to determine where the future action will be. Harkov, Dnipropetrovsk, Zaporozhye, Nikolaev and Odessa will be different i guess. I think that is where Russia will focus now, and those regions constitute the old borders of Novorossiya.
This is exactly of what I have been saying: with the push on Kiev abandoned, the ukros can redirect their troops to reinforce the Donbas.
This is bad. Very bad. Western weapons are flowing in. With this, the “war of attrition” waged by Russia is just another mistake they make.
But they can’t. If they send everything southwards Russians can invade from the North again. They need to maintain a large garrison at Kiev, plus entire border with Russia.
Keeping them guessing is also a very good strategy. With most of the sky being under the Russian control, the Ukro-Nazis can never be sure where the next rocket will come from and when.
They can never be sure, if they will be still alive 5 minutes later, no matter their location within Ukraine. This will wear them down on the psychological level.
no, 35 russian battalions has been destroyed or they are not able to fight – cargo 300 or cargo 400 They lack of man power and its time to face facts
facts are you don’t even know what ‘battalion’ means you brainless and clueless moron.
You have been a victim of Ukro-Nazi propaganda and MSM brainwashing. If you listen to those clowns for any amount of time, you will have no choice, but to think the Ukro-Nazis are already on the outskirts of Moscow.
You need to educate yourself to the real situation and realize that Donbass will be liberated by the Russian army from the in the very near future. The rest of Ukraine will be next…that is why those media clowns are so hysterical, as they realize that there is nothing they can do about this..
Fuck the Ukro-Nazis…tje key is to keep a steady pressure, while destroying their supply lines. No point in making and bald risky manouvers at this point, as time is on Russia’s side. Precision strikes on the bases, where the foreign paid psychopaths, social media selfie seekers and eager war criminals are recieving their instructions from the US instructors is the key.
Pretty soon they will realize, it is not like waging war on a thirld world country with 60’s military tech..which was what they were used to until now. Facing a technologically equal (or even superior in some areas) opponent will break them on psychological level..either that or just get them killed, which is prefferable
The more this lasts, the more this conflict will resemble israel vs palestine one. And outcome will be same, Russia will occupy parts of Ukraine, like Israel occupes west bank and Golan.
Yes!
Overwhelming force saves lives and wealth on both sides.
The Rumsfeld Doctrine: just enough troops to lose.
Putin should step down in favor of Kadyrov.
Russian are in cope mode- nobody can beat them ;) Yes, it was our goal from the beggining- just bleed out russia then finish them. Finland and sweden that will join nato in june is first step. People from finaland know how to hunt down russian child rapists ^^
And the alcohol soaked SkandaHooligan Finns will be clearly informed that they will be DE-MILITARIZED, as soon as the 1st, nato missile arrives.. lets say like in Ukie, eh?
Russia lost the war since the first days. They failed to accurately predict the Ukrainian reaction and desire to resist. They failed to cut out the supply lines of the enemy, even a month and a half into the war. They failed to impress or decapitate its leadership. The decision to attack was the single greatest blunder Russia ever made in its entire recent history. Even if they somehow manage to pull a victory, Ukrainians will hate them for generations to come and will secede at first opportunity. But the chances for Russian victory are slim. Each day goes against Russia as more and more Ukrainian soldiers are mobilised. Eventually Russians will be severely outnumbered, and as NATO weapons and specialists flow in things will get worse for them. Paradoxically, they are like Nazi Germany on Eastern front in WW2: superior weapons, better firepower, partial air superiority, much better kill ratio but still loosing on the long term because the Soviets had manpower and US land-lease. Ukraine might loose 50 000 or even more man and still go on, because its a defensive war and they can take it; for Russia, 10 to 15 000 dead would already be a catastrophy. Realistically, Russia can win in only two scenarios, both of which have heavy political costs: 1. Full mobilisation. They would need at least 600 000 soldiers to conquer and control Ukraine in conventional war. And even so, taking large cities would be very costly. Loses will be in the tens of thousands. 2. Use tactical nuclear weapons. It will be easy and will work, but will make Russia a pariah state, loosing all its allies, even China and Iran. Realistically speaking, Russia should activate diplomacy and Putin should go away asap. Fresh leadership is clearly needed in Kremlin….
You Nazi lovers are truly delusional. Tell me..how long was the supposedly most advanced army in the world in Afghanistan, before they were forced to flee with their tail between their legs. Or even Iraq? And that is considering they had the 100% air superiority.
As far as this war is concerned, if we apply the same metrics, Russia is barelly in the warm-up phase.
Considering that the west was flowing in billions of the latest tech weapons and instructors for past 8 years, considering how they used all of that time to fortify their positions, Russia is doing a phenomenal job…
I mostly agree. Decent analysis without bullshit trolling. I don’t believe in NATO propaganda about Russian losses (significant but grossly exaggerated) and no doubt Ukrainians lost even more. much more. But the war is a disaster. I’m not even going into political and economical consequences, they are absolutely enormous and dire. Only military terms.
I was shocked that Russia launched this operation after 2-3 months of US media hysteria. It was the first big mistake. If your enemy keeps repeating you’ll do something bad and you really do exactly that, then you look even more bad. Second, they completely underestimated Ukrainian reaction and defensive capabilities. How’s that possible?? It’s a big country with large military. ever since the CIA putsch in Maidan the entire purpose of Ukrainian state is prepare for this war. 8 years! Actually the entire purpose of this ukrainian nation (created by Poles, Vatican, Austrians, Germans and Bolsheviks) is to hate Russia. What was Putin thinking? That he would be hailed as liberator?? Not even in 2013/4.certainly not now. Then, this entire plan was overly ambitious for allocated forces. Perhaps it could have worked with more troops and more aggressive approach since day 1 with even more losses. But it was such a huge gamble. For what? It’s not even clear what were the main objectives here. Denazification? Obviously, Soviets failed to do so for 50 years. The only way to remove Banderists from places like Lwow is to kill everyone. Instead they will hate Russia even more now. For every fanatic killed, there will be 3 more. They will use this to justify hate against Russia for another 200 years. Russian minority living in Ukraine is basically doomed. They were already gradually assimilated or expelled, but now they will be destroyed. There will be no chance of reconciliation, or any chance of some Yanukovich type pro-russian government in the future.
The worst of all: the real enemy is not even Ukraine. It’s NATO. NATO is USA. And USA only profiteering from this war (unlike their vassals in EU). China and Turkey will also have some benefits. But Putin f*cked up everything he worked for for 20+ years. This war is everything Russian enemies dreamt about. Bear trap. Russians are wasting their stockpile of expensive missiles on Ukro-garbage. It will be difficult to replace these missiles especially under sanctions. But that’s just one of million new problems for Russia. Yea eventually, the US would find some reason to introduce more sanctions anyway but this way Russia just gave them all they ever wanted so easily. Russia now depends entirely on China, and that’s just another problem. Putin himself said back in 2014. he won’t ever allow Russia to be isolated. Now it is isolated more than ever. Perhaps comparable only with 1920s or the Crimean war. And if Russia don’t win this war quickly the problems will only grow. But Americans will never allow the war to end. They have the bear where they want. How many ukraininas die is totally irrelevant for them, the more the better. Kiev regime unquestionably serve them, they will sacrifice entire ukraine without second thought. I don’t see how Russia can win quickly at this point, A-bombs are out of the question, that’s simply impossible option. Kiev will continue with false flag ‘massacres’, NATO will supply more weapons, bloodbath will continue…
I agree with you, but Russia will not lose against Ukraine. There will be more land taken, and Ukraine will become smaller and less of a future threat. If they try something stupid, there will be preemptive missile strikes on them. They will be kept in limbo and population will mostly leave to the West. Russia will probably arm Donbass / Novorossiya to the teeth so it would be able to defend against any future attack alone, if needed. What will remain of Ukraine will be a very bitter place, hating Russia, and hating West aswell for leaving them like this.
But if you look broader, you are right. This conflict will weaken Russia’s position against the West, atleast short term. But long term, it all depends on what Russia does. From 2014 sanctions they emerged stronger and more resilient.
-The war was unavoidable. -Sanctions were unavoidable. -Eurofags blindly following Washington’s orders, definitely unavoidable. -Destruction of Russian minority in Ukraine, also unavoidable.
Like in chess, this move was unavoidable. This conflict started when the US overthrew legal government of Ukraine and installed psychopaths instead. Pity that Maidan wasn’t destroyed back in 2013/4. but since then full scale war was just a matter of time. Russia would be blame in any case.
Putin decided to strike first and fasten the process, turn at least some variables into Russian favour and save what can be saved. Like in chess, sometimes you have to be aggressive to ruin opponents plans.
“If a man does not strike first, he will be first struck.”
Lotsa talk.. BUT WHY is there no mention that Ukie/nato were planning to ATTACK Donbas and Crimea on March4? Is that not why Put acted?
”The decision to attack was the single greatest blunder Russia ever ..” Nah, the Russ. intel clearly showed Uki/nato attack of Donbas and Crimea were planned for March4.
Did anyone really think this could be done in a couple of months?
Russia can Mow the Lawn all day and night long… The longer this goes on the more the U.S. has to focus away from the Indo-Pacific and Middle East and onto Europe. Russia keeping the hedges cut.
I agree. It’s not looking good for the soldiers on the ground. If I was to take the absolute best scenario for Russia then it would play like this:
1) Russia invades Ukraine with a three pronged attack. North, South and East 2) East is the main target for Russia (Donbass and Lugansk) 3) The Kiev attack is a diversion, albeit a poorly planned one. Intention was to tie down the 100k forces around Kiev from reinforcing the east 4) With Ukrainian forces pinned down in North and South, Russia embarks on operation to cleanse the east of Nazis 5) While the operation is underway in the east, Russia uses long range strikes to take out Ukrainian armor, logistics, command and control, heavy SAMs etc. 6) Russia feels enough damage has been done as of 5) to withdraw forces from the North and use them to bolster the East 7) Plan to totally liberate the east begins …
The equipment arriving from NATO is worse than useless – it is dangerous, even, to the Ukrainians as the experience with the Slovak S300 adequately demonstrates. Further similar ‘demonstrations’ will no doubt be forthcoming in the near future. One may as well deliver scrap iron and save the Russians the bother of converting it into such on the battlefield.
Rusia debe utilizar el poder de toda su industria militar para terminar los objetivos propuestos, para ello cuenta con municiones merodeadores, drones de ataque, misiles de crucero de todo tipo, armas termobaricas(bombas de vacío), misiles hipersonicos y cuenta con la bomba no nuclear más grande para lanzarla contra las concentraciones de tropas Ucranianas, así también si es necesario puede recurrir al apoyo armamentistico de países aliados Irán, China y cuenta también para esta fase de lucha con el apoyo de militantes sirios para la toma del Donbass. El apoyo de suministros de países aliados solo sería necesario en caso de querer terminar el conflicto lo más pronto posible y así evitar una larga guerra de desgaste como quiere Occidente.
How many more missiles and how much more military hardware can the US UK France keep on providing to Ukraine? Some oil meant for the UK was recently STOLEN? For Ukraine NATO Nazis? I wonder if the troops stationed in the former Soviet union will get homesick and whether the rest of the NATO alliance will run out of metals? Making missiles, how does one prevent it? Shipping missiles, how does one prevent it, delivery of missiles, how does one track it? Separate subject. How about a few robot spies in those tunnels? A robot doggie thing with 360 degree, top and bottom cameras with infrared could be very helpful. Would China like to play about with this and get something delivered FAST?
One hundred thousand Kiev troops? Phew. Will they all want to be fighting?It is a lot to take on at once.
One hundred thousand Kiev troops are willing to die same as 15-20 thousands in Mariupol? What for? Zelensky’s non-sense? Most of these 100k are regular army, not Nazis. Popularity of Zelenky goes every day down, Putin goes up. Like a ruble :)
A far more liberal use of Russia’s TOS-1A thermobarics would a quick end to THAT nonsense of ‘unending war’.