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From Battlefield To Bargaining Table: Russia’s Gains Shape Ukraine War Negotiations

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Russian forces are making gradual territorial gains on the frontlines while Ukrainian troops struggle to hold their positions amid mounting losses. Over the past week, Russian advances have secured an additional 21 square kilometers. Ukrainian troops are forced to adjust defensive tactics, relying on heavy camouflage and small-unit movements to avoid detection. The skies over the battlefield are increasingly dominated by drones from both sides, leading to a near-parity in aerial reconnaissance and strike capabilities at low altitude. Both sides are implementing countermeasures such as mesh corridors and enhanced concealment to mitigate the drone threat.

Russian forces have increased pressure and won control of several important villages on a wide front advancing toward Konstantinovka from the southeastern direction. Fierce battles rage in the mines on the outskirts of Torezk. The South Donetsk front is also marked by the advance of Russian forces toward the borders of the Dnipropetrovsk region. Heavy fighting continues near Bogatyr, with Ukrainian forces launching counterattacks, including armored assaults. The Zaporizhzhia front remains a hotly contested zone where Ukrainian drone operators are slowing the pace of the Russian advance. In Kherson, the frontlines have remained static, though field reports suggested a potential Russian crossing of the Dnipro River—a move that would face significant logistical challenges.

The Ukrainian bloody incursion on Russian territory failed. The Russian army liberated the Kursk region and repelled Ukrainian forces from the last border villages in Belgorod. However, the Ukrainian military does not stop reinforcing positions near the border, heavily shelling Russian villages. Threatened by a Russian offensive on Ukrainian territory, Kyiv appears to be regrouping for new possible attacks in the Bryansk and Belgorod directions.

In the Sumy direction, Russian forces have already ramped up offensive operations, deploying long-range artillery, airstrikes, and assault brigades to weaken Ukrainian defenses. Key battles are unfolding around Basovka and Yunakovka, with Russian troops advancing toward Loknya, a critical logistical hub for Ukrainian forces.

On the diplomatic front, rumors about the possible peace terms are wide spreading. Moscow has reiterated its conditions for possible negotiations. Foreign Minister Lavrov has emphasized that Crimea’s status is non-negotiable and that any ceasefire must come with guarantees against further Ukrainian rearmament. Moscow also insists on maintaining control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and has noted the absence of any U.S. proposals regarding sanctions relief. While Russia remains open to discussions, it has made clear that any agreement must reflect the current realities on the battlefield.

In his turn, Zelensky is pushing a controversial deal to European nations, ready to mobilize an additional 600,000 troops in exchange for €100 billion. His plan includes lowering the conscription age to 18 and extending martial law, ensuring that Zelensky retains power. The move underscores Kyiv’s strategy of prolonging the war despite heavy casualties, banking on Western support to sustain its war effort.

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