The Two Keys: How Russia Plans To Trap Ukraine’s Forces In A Historic Cauldron

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The village of Sopych in the Sumy region remains a tense hotspot. On the morning of March 16, Ukrainian forces comprising three assault groups from the 48th Separate Special Forces Detachment, supported by M113 armored personnel carriers, attempted to break into the village. The attack was unsuccessful, and the assault groups were destroyed before reaching their destination.

The Ukrainian command is facing dire circumstances with reserves on this section of the front. This is evident from the deployment of special forces as assault infantry.

Heavy fighting continues for the city of Kupyansk. Like Bakhmut and Pokrovsk before it, the city has become yet another “black hole” on the front lines. Both sides have committed so many resources to the fight that they cannot retreat, even if there are compelling reasons to do so. Therefore, Kupyansk could mark the beginning of an operational crisis for one of the armies in northern Ukraine.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian army is stepping up its efforts north of the city. Russian units still control a narrow zone along the western bank of the Oskol River. At the same time, Ukrainian assault groups are taking significant risks by pushing deep into Russian defenses. The Russians could launch a counterattack from Radkivka southward toward the city. In that case, the advancing forces would be cut off from the main front.

North of Lyman, Russian units are maintaining their offensive potential. Assault groups have advanced south of Oleksandrivka in a westerly direction. This sector is one of two keys to controlling the cities of Slaviansk and Kramatorsk and, thus, the entire region. This sector is the northern prong of what could potentially be the largest encirclement in the conflict’s history. The second key is located much farther south in the Shakhovo area.

According to reports from March 14, Russian forces have made significant gains on the northern flank of the front near Gulyaipole. The Rozhdestvenske bridgehead is expanding. Despite the deployment of substantial Ukrainian reserves to the area, it will be difficult to eliminate the bridgehead quickly.

The Russian command’s operational plan for the upcoming summer campaign is taking shape. The first objective of the new phase of hostilities will most likely be the encirclement of Orekhov and the surrounding area. Subsequently, all efforts may shift from the south toward capturing Slavyansk. This scenario is possible only if the Ukrainian army suffers significant losses during the first phase.

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