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The West is losing both militarily and economically. Now it has to reopen diplomatic channels.
Written by Uriel Araujo, researcher with a focus on international and ethnic conflicts.
On March 1, French Finance Minister Bruno Le Maire, in an interview to France Info radio, described the Western sanction packages as “extremely effective” measures that would cause “the collapse of the Russian economy”. This has failed – the ruble has recovered, and analysts also expect Moscow’s trade surplus to hit record highs in the coming months.
The West did sanction the country in an unprecedented way, targeting its foreign reserves particularly, and, as response to that, worried citizens rushed to their banks to withdraw cash. The financial system thus seemed to be on the way to its collapse.
Imports fell, as expected, due to logistical disruptions and also due to the regulatory uncertainty that arose as a result of the new sanctions and their relative vagueness. For example, Kazakhstan’s vice-minister of trade and integration, Kairat Torebayev, complained in an interview to EURACTIV on May 13 that “nobody can tell me if Kazakhstan can sell yogurt to Russia”.
Moreover, the sanctions and the expulsion of some of the Russian lenders from the SWIFT network made it harder for firms in Russia to buy goods from the West. Initially, the ruble depreciated dramatically and there was talk of an inevitable default on Russian debts. With its assets frozen, and sanctions preventing its Central Bank from using about half of its $640 billion in foreign reserves (to pay back its creditors), plus rising inflation and capital flight, things certainly were not looking good.
However, at the end of March, the currency began to recover. By mid-April, its value had already reached 1 RUB = 0.013 USD, which was the rate just before Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine. On April 26, the rouble hit a more than two years high (trading at 76.90 versus the euro) before it stabilized near 77. And, on May 5, it was then reported that the ruble briefly reached its highest level (against the US dollar) since March 2020. It hit a high of 65.31 per dollar.
Finally, on May 20, the ruble reached both its strongest level against the Euro since June 2015 (touching 59.02) and the strongest level against the US dollar since March 2018 (hitting 57.0750). On May 19, Moscow stated that about half of the 54 Russian gas company Gazprom’s clients have opened accounts at the Gazprombank; analysts have attributed the ruble rally to this fact. The EU after all has allowed its member states to keep purchasing Russian gas without breaching the sanctions they themselves imposed on Moscow – by using rubles for payment.
But it is not just the currency that has recovered. Exports are going well too. According to the Economist, Russia in fact can expect a record trade surplus. Even though the Kremlin has ceased to publish detailed monthly trade data, one can still work on the data pertaining to Russia’s trading partners themselves. The data available shows that China, on May 9, reported that its goods exports to the country did fall by more than a quarter (in comparison with last year), but its imports from Russia rose by over 65%. Based on data from the eight largest Russian trading partners, the Economist estimates that while Russian imports may have fallen by approximately 45% (since February), its exports, on the other hand, have risen by around 8%.
The Institute of International Finance (IIF), which is a bankers’ organization, estimates that the current-account surplus (including trade and financial flows) can come in at $250 billion in 2022. That is more than double the $120 billion that was recorded last year. Thus it would appear that sanctions in fact have boosted Moscow’s trade surplus. Even the exports directed to the West have been holding up well. The global rise in energy prices has boosted the revenues even further. Russian inflation is still high, but it is slowing. With economic activity indicators improving, the Russian authorities have reasons to be optimistic about avoiding a financial crisis.
The truth is that the Russian Federation, being an almost 140 million people market, comprises half of the whole Eurasion Union. The Russian market is quite irreplaceable from the perspective of these countries. Moreover, in Europe, there is no quick alternative for Russian energy sources.
Meanwhile, Germany’s inflation rate rose in April at its fastest pace since before the country’s reunification in 1981. This is fuelled by the rising energy prices, which in turn have been exacerbated by the current Russo-Ukrainian crisis. Similarly, with energy bills soaring, the UK inflation rate is rising at its fastest rate for 40 years.
At this point one can already say that the Western sanctions against Russia have failed and even backfired. This means the West is losing the economic and financial war it waged against Moscow. Sending weapons to Ukraine is not working either.
This explains why talks of a cease-fire are being echoed by the main European leaders and by the US itself, even though the very same players had signaled their intention to a full-spectrum confrontation quite recently. Even Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenski has changed his hitherto uncompromising tone: speaking on national TV, on May 21, he stated that “only diplomacy can end the Ukraine war”.
The West is losing its proxy war against Russia in Ukraine – both militarily and economically. Now it has to reopen diplomatic channels. The only other choice is a global nuclear war.
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To counter China’s successful effort in bringing 800M Chinese out of poverty, the US will execute a comprehensive plan to push 300M Americans into abject destitution.
It has been obvious from the start, and Russian officials have stated it openly, that the special operation whilst focussed militarily on narrow goals, has far wider purpose and implications. Russia knows full well it is an opportunity and attempt to redefine the world as a free multipolar model, rather than the US hegemonic dictatorial pyramid that the west has become, and enforces on others through violent, economic and political threats. For Russia to succeed it had to work out and implement economic hedging strategies in order to be able to see things through. As of now it appears Russia has strategized and prepared well. Remember also there is a wider quiet tag player in this game – China!
RUSSIA’S AMAZING VICTORIES in OPERATION Z
Months – 3 and 33% of Ukraine under Russian control Victories – 10 including 40,000 UAF casualties and 37,800 Nazi and Ukrainian prisoners Sanctions – 0 impact Economy – Growing into surplus Friends – 2 largest nations China & India with hundreds others NATO impotent and sending Russia weapons indirectly Army – Again seen as a cohesive top notch global military Navy – Sinking Air Force- Total domination of Ukrainian skies Diplomats – Very effective Spies – Infiltrating all of EU Final outcome: Russian Victory as expected.
~15% of territory and ~7500 POWs, not including Donbass and Crimea. Dead ones, it was ~23000 month ago, so I believe in 40 thousands. Every day = minus 200-300 “calibrated” nazis. Denazifying goes well. Add to the list liberal sectarians (musicians, actors, economists, jornalists with strong anti-russian tense) who left Russia (many of them to Israel) after the start of the operation. Some sources say that 80% came back already, so pity. But they lost money, because almost no people want to hear their music, go to look at their faces in theaters and to read their crap in MSM. Some of such MSM were closed finally like “Echo of Moscow” with bunch of russophobe bastards in staff, “Gasprom” stopped to give them money at last, it was GP’s asset. Internal denazification begins.
Absolutely steady Russian advances at a very minimal cost in lives & equipment are destroying the battered Ukrainian military and as the senile Jew Kissinger said today, Russia will win and Ukraine needs to negotiate before it is totally destroyed. Just a look at the latest military map, Russian have captured an area the size of Italy and are moving on and on. JAI RUS!
Die EU ist eine kriminelle Organisation mit v.d. Laien an der Spitze. Diebe, Mörder und Verräter. Schöne neue Welt. Kein Wunder, dass Merkel kein Bock mehr hatte weiterzumachen.
just bloody contaminate ukraine farm land with chemical spraying and explode from mid air, make ukraine produce not sellable
You need your brain replaced.
Too extreme decision, there are a lot of good people living here under nazist occupation. Nazist cancer will be removed and people will have freedom and peace. Nazi-supporters could move to Germany or Poland, it’s what they dreamed for years, all will be happy (except nazi). Life is going to be better, no need to poison anything.
Russia by now will have exported the biggest number of dead idiots to their neighboring country of Ukraine. That’s 30,000 dead ruskies and counting.
Mohammed was a pedophilic.. aisha was only 11 years old when they had se*
ROFLMSLAOOOO —– and then you woke up, uKRAPiTrash slug !
SIDDOWN and SHADDAP, sub human fewI —- you embarrass yourself with your clownery !
I LOVE THE SMELL OF BURNT UKRAINIAN IN THE MORNING ! ! !
Mijav
Clinton
You are wasting your time on a Jew, he is hardly a Muslim.
Hsr times . So many muslims are minus. The more bright muslims invented the zero to make a distance from them.
Jew? Hohol!
Noahs children were boys and populated the world. How did they do it.
Mohammed Pedophhilic You know it and can VOUCH FOR THIS as you were SODOMISED CORRECT?
He is a Hindu turd who used to post under other nicks, now he and the Jews are on to posting usual islamophobic garbage.
ROFLMSLAOOOO —– and then you woke up, uKRAPiTrash slug !
SIDDOWN, fewI —- you embarrass yourself with your clownery !
I LOVE THE SMELL OF BURNT UKRAINIAN IN THE MORNING ! ! !
5,435 Russian casualties and over 37,000 Uki dead and close to 40,000 POWS.
Those numbers are highly incorrect.
You probatly counted them Yourself.
the whole world know one thing,ukraine severely downplay losses tenfold,old mi6 trick
Have you counted them? Last I saw the Ukronazis couldn’t even get close to agreeing the amount of casualties. You know every major story the Ukronazis have stated has either been proven as total fantasy or admitted by themselves to be incorrect at a later date. Yet idiots still believe them & state their words as correct factual accounts. What were they stating last week about the evacuation of the Banderbastards from Avozstal? That’s right they were evacuated to Russia & the DPR to await trial. Some evacuation that was. But idiots still believe their lies. Despite how many lies. You’ll be saying the ghost of Kiev was responsible for 2,000 Russian casualties next. Silly me I forgot even the Ukronazis admitted there has never been a ghost of Kiev & what happened at snake island again? Those brave Ukronazis told the Russians to go & fck themselves. But that turned out to be a complete lie & they all surrended to the Russian forces. But don’t worry the figures they say must be true because someone as intelligent as you thinks they are. Words can’t explain how stupid some people are. Unless you call them Americans, as everyone knows how stupid they are. They voted for an old man with dementia as their leader apparently 82 million citizens voted for him. What does that say about their intelligence? It’s obvious you have the same levels.
Delusional stats,cnn is just fake news,sodomised twunt!
The world owes President Putin and the Russian people a debt of gratitude for their efforts in eradicating the scourge of fahclsm and nahtzism where-ever it rears it’s ugly head.
First germany, and now 75 years later …. in uKRAPistan !
God bless you President Putin and the people you lead !
I LOVE THE SMELL OF BURNT UKRAINIAN IN THE MORNING ! ! !
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4yHoYYLdlys
We are happy here too. Putin has united bilions better then Biden.
That’s great news 82 million Americans voted for an old man with dementia, what does that say about Americans? They think they’ve got democracy they think they’ve got freedoms as well. Yet in front of their faces their own police are the biggest mass murderers in the country. They have no say in any policy decisions, they can’t go out of the house without ID. They have mass shootings every day some over double figures. They have millions upon millions living in poverty. They have massive tent cities where they shit on the side walks. They can only get healthcare if they can afford it. They have the choice of 2 idiots to make as their president. Murder rates way above any normal society. Violent crimes & no go areas the sizes of towns & cities. The only thing they export is death & destruction. They alone have commited more war crimes than the whole world put together. Yet the American people still believe it, when their lying corrupt officials call a nation aggressive. Americans are that stupid they refuse to believe what’s in front of their faces, unless Kim Khardasian tells them it’s a fact or some other paid idiot. They are told they are the best country on the planet from birth. So they blindly believe it. Until the small amount that travel & visit foreign countries come back & tell them that their airports are like something from the 70’s that their freedoms are just a fantasy, that their banking industry is ancient technology. That they have no public transport or public healthcare. They find out everyone else can go to 99.9% of their countries & be 100% risk free with hardly any crimes. They can’t believe how litter & graffiti free the foreign nations are or how polite people are. How the police are helpful & the last thing on their mind is to be aggressive to normal civilians. How technological advanced these nations are on every level compared to the US. They also find kindergartens are free & students have tiny debts if any compared to the US & receive much better educations. You can be as United as you want in your beliefs. But your Beliefs are based on 100% fantasy, lies & half truths. So the rest of the world doesn’t give a fck about your opinions they are nothing & never will be whe yous still believe your lying media & politicians. I’ll ask you a simple question. This country is massive it’s called Kazakhstan, where is it on a map? If you don’t know without looking at a map point proven.
I never imagined a different outcome. Russians are great strategists but on the other side, the Americans are fucking retarded morons.
.
The sanctions the US promoted to Europe have failed but the US is not the one being the brunt of those sanctions as usual.
Both things are no correct.
U.S. sanctions upon Russian agricultural products and services shall lead directly to wars in areas where the Americans want to invade next… i.e Africa.
In those wars Russia/India/China can help arm and defend those African govts that become target of Pentagon controlled jihadists and hand the Yanks a telling defeat upon the Dark Continent too.
jens received a used condom from CIA; Russia obtained 28 billion euros equivalent for energy alone in past 30 days…the moron nazis have destroyed their own economies w sanctions, embargoes etc, helped Russia….the moron hillbillies at SF more desperate—grunter Hans, Sawyer nazi, senile jens and various aliases used at SF
what? no comments by moron nazis Boggs Sawyer, jens, rams hans? so traumatized by Russian success they require sodomy from lgbt therapists
Have the puppets realized yet that the puppet master is not their friend ? What fools !
As usual Our world is not as you descriebe at all.
senile jens description resembles insanity, a kabuki farce
They will hit soros fools for sure,unlike the wise whom atleast prepared not to lose the lot,drr!
Sadly I do believe that America will push Russia, by error or by purpose into a nuclear war.
We have made no threats.
We are friends with all Russians as long as they remain in their own country.
I love Russian sausage in my pansy danish ass. I am so gay.
I am friends with slimy senile nazi jens as long s he remains locked in mental institution and he is not permitted to threaten civilized peoples with stupidity and racist ideology
Americans are cowards and very attached to saving their miserable hides and will not fight Russia as they know US will be destroyed. They are greedy evil cowards, but not suicidal. Russia is winning anyway.
Be positive. Anyway ordinary people can’t change it, so at least will die not in sadness.
Don’t be saddened infact Russia can outgun usa on all fronts,on all borders and destroy nukes too! Usa cant,see lacketh science these days they can only nuke 3rd world nations.hence fear n korea bad!
The main is that EU, a Washington puppet, has shown its true colors. Fake democracy propaganda.
1) Actually, more than half of French people did like to vote for our current président. 42% voted for the other pretender. 2) About war, it’s 80-90% against Russia and 10-20% who understand Russia’s way. 3) About Covid vaccine, it’s 93% of +18years old people who got it. All this to say that many people deserve their fate. I’m in the three minorities (1-2-3) by the way. I just fight hard by spending the least possible money to the oligarchy in my common lifedays. This is how we can play war in West occupied territory here. The weapons are the numbers.
Here are some ideas from a previous comment on SF : You can fight by not spending anything who can enrich the Europe 1% richest people. So: Just don’t buy anything (no Netflix, no home internet, just 4G, no high VAT produits: just your passions). Never fight everyone. Cut TV. Sell your TV. Build things by yourself or with friendly neighbours. Have fun with people. Go sport or music or art or other. Work less to pay less taxes. Consume less useless things. At least make strategic expenses. Buy old bike to go far without petrol, train every day. Improve your family home materials (bathroom, bedrooms, cave, etc). We can borrow to our parents and give them their 2% interest. If we need some money from bank (for primary home), we have to race to give back money the fastest way. Many things more in the same way. By doing this, you fight inside your own country against European current rulers. THIS is the war here.
Credit card,debit card and good old cash,keep all in surplus,and where applicable afterpay all combined incur no fees whatsoever unless you exceed interest free threshold, generally the best deals win just about all the time,there are better swiss watches then rolex too,so one loses nothing in regards to quiality of life,yet when internet suits local, sure helps to determine usage land,mobile or both,mobiles there are a host of products even a tenth of the cost of apple that do everything,maybe even more in regards to usefull apps available for free,yet subsciptions are a total waste of time unless qualifys certificates to pursue objective,thus netflix payed movies or media is not essential. Transportation is a tricky one,personally i prefer the 700bhp heap in the garage and take it out a few times locally,thats it,remainder use the family suv hack and limit all transport regardless to localised essentials,yet not concerned so much about long trips,though using the railway or bus or air more viable option,depending on feasability.
Energy is important,yet do your research,one may reduce energy bill of 273 p/3mnths for 3 adults in the little mansion without restrictive measures to 167 p/3mnths with the energy provider whom deals in fossils,unlike greens/musk kikes three fold the rates,not too shabby for the old school landlined(non solar) dinosaur,albiet more efficient relic than not?
Hot water system from asia has double stainless steel tanks,great for warmer climates, definetaly not reccommended for siberians or it will crack,but my case 8 years absolutely bullet proof,yet a whopping 65% savings because of intelligent opt programming which clearly out performs yet uses far less than monopolised much dumber top west brands!
Tvs and fridges are in the same boat,western brands tens to use far more energy,by design also beware modern air conditioners,they perform worse than 50 yo variants in large enough areas like 5 minutes compared to todays 30 mins (same kw) to get it to the same temps?
By design of course,it seems the french and canadians did this on purpose,yet despite the case there have been no offical evidence that proves either refrigerant is less toxic,seens if they don’t leak,they cant anyway,but the difference in cooling is more than substantial.
The less you spend the less tax you waste towards trying to prop up cia/milita profits, moreso the case if with the eu-union-nato to make matters worse,use debt with caution.
Other caveats,long trips to work,many a overpriced tollways,fuel,wear and tear,tyres,fines,overall risks in lieu of congested traffic etc,why not settle for a local job?
Ok :-)
Hi Sylvain,
Just a brief commnent to put thing in the right perspective.
In the last French elections turnout was 70% roughly, this means 3 out of 10 did not vote.
Of the remaining 7, a 58% aprox. voted for the current president. A 58% of 7 is roughly 4 people. Whereas a 42% aprox. voted for the other candidate, this is roughly 3 people out of 7.
In summary, out of 10 people with the right to vote: 4 voted for the current president, 3 did not vote and 3 voted for the other candidate.
Current president has been elected with 40% popular support, 60% either voted for other candidate or did not vote.
There is no woder there are protests and unrest in France, majority does not want your current president.
You are not as alone as you think.
Regards.
Ok :-) It’s right
This is how the REAL ECONOMY works behind the monetarist abracadabra of the priests of the Holy Church of Capitalist Economic (pseudo-)Science.
What really matters in the end is stuff, not finances. And Anglosaxons are not anymore, after almost three centuries of global parasitism, producing almost anything at all.
Russia has stuff, China makes stuff, the USA imports stuff with their fantasy coupons we call “money”.
Unstoppable invincible RUSSIA
😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂 You never know even the idiots in my own country the UK might just realise , we are being lead by corrupt lying criminals who are what amounts to commiting treason against their own citizens. I very much doubt it though, as they’re that stupid they still believe what our media says to them. Never mind as long as Russia comes out of this more wealthy, more powerful, more respected & most of all Victorious in their legitimate special operation in riffing the world of Facists
The country’s reunification in 1981? Where’s the copy editor At, people? German reunification happened in 1990.