Russian Forces Advance In Donbass Exactly As Predicted By Military Expert

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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst

Since early May, the Russian military has been conducting offensive operations in the Kharkov oblast (region). At the time, various sources suggested that Moscow’s firepower concentrated in the Belgorod oblast was too massive for the number of deployed assault troops, clearly implying that the Kremlin wasn’t planning a breakthrough, but to stretch the Kiev regime’s defenses across a wider front and then advance in other areas. These forces were also supported by strike jets dropping UMPK-equipped precision-guided bombs. In addition, the Russian Operational Group “North” deployed up to 1150 self-propelled howitzers (SPH) and rocket artillery, including systems such as the 122 mm “Gvozdika”, the 152.4 mm “Msta-S” and “Akatsiya”, BM-21 “Grad/Tornado-G”, BM-27 “Uragan” (possibly also the upgraded 1M variant) and BM-30 “Smerch/Tornado-S“.

At the time, I argued that this could force the Neo-Nazi junta to thin out defenses not only in western parts of the Donbass, but also overstretch and overextend its forces in other areas. In addition, I also suggested that their massive losses in manpower and equipment would make it impossible to defend these areas, while Moscow could easily continue to shape up the battlefield with the cornucopia of assault units and advanced weapon systems at its disposal. This hypothesis was also shared by other, far more prominent military experts, such as Colonel (ret.) Stevica Karapandžin, who also predicted changes in the frontline dynamics months in advance, with pinpoint precision. I also had the honor of interviewing him in the last days of July, when he essentially updated his previous analysis first published in late June, when he accurately predicted the current events.

The premise of Colonel Karapandžin’s hypothesis is that the Donbass is at the center of Russian strategic goals in Ukraine and that neutralizing the Kiev regime forces there would be a crucial win for the Kremlin. The latest events demonstrate that this is true, as the Russian military is advancing precisely in the areas that Colonel Karapandžin suggested weeks and months in advance. For instance, reputable sources confirm that his predictions about Moscow breaking through the Neo-Nazi junta’s second zone of defense were 100% on point. Those areas of the Donbass proved to be deadly for the Kiev regime forces, as they’re simply unable to prevent or at least hold off Russian advances. On August 4, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) officially confirmed that the town of Novoselovka Pervaya (located 15 km west of Avdeyevka) was fully taken.

The military is now using it to advance further, particularly toward the southwest. Even the mainstream propaganda machine is now forced to admit that the Kiev regime is losing the strategic battle for the Donbass. For instance, back in mid-July, the New York Times reluctantly conceded that the Neo-Nazi junta was struggling to “contain Moscow’s advances across the front”. By the end of last month, it went into full panic mode, complaining that Russia is “punching through weakened lines in Eastern Ukraine”. Back in late July, Forbes reported on the collapse of entire brigades of the Kiev regime forces. The general trend is that their zones of defense that were previously being neutralized piecemeal are now falling much more systematically. This is also because Russian assault units have improved direct and indirect fire support.

In addition, better tactical ISR (intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance) improved the Russian military’s coordination, which is now resulting in faster gains and reduced losses. According to Reuters, this is forcing the Neo-Nazi junta to evacuate entire areas faster than ever before. Even Zelensky is now openly talking about losing ground in the Pokrovsk area, where the Russian military opened a salient only 20 km from the city, while it’s already on the outskirts of Toretsk. In order to shift attention away from these losses and continue a string of “PR victories”, the Kiev regime is resorting to desperate tactics, such as drone strikes on civilian infrastructure across the border. However, this doesn’t change the calculus for the Neo-Nazi junta forces. Their unraveling is going exactly as Colonel Karapandžin predicted and there are no signs that this situation will change any time soon.

All this also suggests that the very idea the Kiev regime forces could launch yet another counteroffensive in the foreseeable future is simply ludicrous. The political West is trying to shift attention away from this doom and gloom scenario by insisting that the F-16s will “change things”, but this notion makes sense only if the Neo-Nazi junta gets nuclear weapons along with them. However, in that case, NATO itself would pay the ultimate price, a promise that the Kremlin has been perfectly clear about on multiple occasions. Although the idea that the Kiev regime could get nuclear weapons from the political West may seem far-fetched, Russia needs to take everything into account, as it’s quite obvious that NATO-sourced conventional weapons are no match for the Russian military. The political West will simply do virtually anything to prevent yet another humiliating defeat.

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