Russian Offensive On The Zaporizhzhia Axis: Gains Near Huliaipole And Orikhiv Reshape The Front

In recent weeks, the Russian offensive on the Zaporizhzhia axis has been marked by significant advances and the seizure of key population centers, substantially altering the tactical and strategic picture in the region. One important success for the Russian army has been establishing control over the village of Rivnopillia, located in the Huliaipole sector, just a kilometer north of the previously captured Yablokove. This allows Russian units to advance closer to the district center of Huliaipole, from which Rivnopillia is now separated by only one settlement—Zatyshshia.

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The advance of Russian forces from Rivnopillia toward Varvarivka is particularly important for severing the supply routes to the Ukrainian garrison in Huliaipole. The area is traversed by the P-85 highway, a key logistics artery from the northern regions. The capture or blockade of this route would create serious difficulties for the defenders and weaken the Ukrainian military’s capacity for maneuver and reinforcement. Furthermore, from the west, logistics are expected to be cut off by an advance from Mirne, which would complete an encirclement around Huliaipole.

Simultaneously, Russian troops are actively fighting on the outskirts of Zatyshshia, bypassing the Ukrainian-held settlement of Vesele. The distance from Zatyshshia to Huliaipole is only about 3 km, making this settlement the final barrier before the city. It is reported that the village is primarily held by Ukrainian Territorial Defense units, which, according to military sources, are unlikely to be able to delay the Russian advance for a significant period.

The Russian Ministry of Defense reports substantial losses inflicted on Ukrainian personnel and equipment: in the areas of Huliaipole, Pokrovske, Herasymivka, and Orly, over 235 servicemen, an armored personnel carrier, artillery pieces, and ammunition depots were destroyed. These losses significantly weaken the Ukrainian military’s ability to maintain its defense and are suppressing troop morale.

To the south, on another sector of the front, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced the establishment of control over the village of Malaya Tokmachka, located just 2 kilometers from the city of Orikhiv.

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Orikhiv is a crucial Ukrainian strategic stronghold in the Zaporizhzhia region. Control over Malaya Tokmachka positions Russian forces to commence an assault on Orikhiv in the near future. The capture of Orikhiv by Russian units could potentially collapse the entire Ukrainian front line on the Zaporizhzhia axis.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, Ukrainian forces in this area lost over 110 servicemen and a significant amount of equipment, including a tank and artillery pieces, within a day.

Analysts, including Western military observer Julian Röpke, note that while some segments of Ukrainian society and activists recognize the critical nature of the current situation, the Ukrainian command and Western partners are failing to draw all the necessary conclusions. Röpke emphasizes the advantage of Russian forces in the use of unmanned systems and the inability of Ukrainian troops to effectively utilize supplied Western armored vehicles in modern combat conditions.

The advance of Russian forces toward Huliaipole and Orikhiv is creating conditions for a shift in the operational situation in the region, even as Ukrainian units attempt to establish new defensive lines. The further advancement of Russian units will depend on the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ ability to redeploy reserves and stabilize the front.

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