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Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst
We are inches away from a global thermonuclear war. And no, this isn’t a meaningless, overused catchphrase. Quite the contrary, it’s as serious as it gets. We have reached a historical boiling point. At no other time in human history have we been closer to the scenario of annihilation, not even during the so-called “Cuban” Missile Crisis. It should really be called “Turkish” or something along those lines. And it’s important to note that we’re not digressing from the topic by mentioning this.
Namely, the mainstream propaganda machine just loves maintaining its narratives that essentially whitewash the political West and denigrate the actual world. This is why the fact that the United States initiated the “Cuban” Missile Crisis by deploying nuclear-tipped missiles in Italy and Turkey back in 1961 (although some sources claim it was as early as 1959) is ever so “conveniently” forgotten. The USSR waited a full year (at the very least) to respond by placing its own missiles in Cuba.
Thus, it’s perfectly clear who initiated that confrontation. And yet, as previously mentioned, modern historiography remembers the event as the “Cuban” Missile Crisis, sending a subliminal message that it was initiated by the Soviet Union and Cuba. Why is this important? Because the same people are now telling us that Russia “escalated” the NATO-orchestrated Ukrainian conflict by “firing missiles at a democratic Ukraine”, once again “forgetting” to mention the preceding events.
Namely, as we all know, the political West gave the Neo-Nazi junta the go-ahead to use long-range missiles against targets deeper within Russia. And they just did. In the last two days, approximately a dozen ATACMS and “Storm Shadow”/SCALP-EG missiles have been used (on the same day Moscow updated its nuclear doctrine, mind you). So, how did the “evil Kremlin”, led by the “crazy, bloodthirsty tyrant Putin”, respond to this? Well, not with nukes, as we’re still here, even though the doctrine allows it.
However, Russia did fire what is technically an ICBM (intercontinental ballistic missile). This marks the first time such a weapon was used in a conflict. And while ICBMs normally carry thermonuclear warheads, this one was conventionally armed. To better understand what sort of weapon this is, we have to go back a decade or so, specifically to the RS-26 “Rubezh” program that was supposed to deter NATO’s crawling aggression in Europe and the post-Soviet space.
Namely, the RS-26 was envisaged as the successor to the formidable RSD-10 “Pioneer” IRBM (intermediate-range ballistic missile). Essentially a shortened version of the three-stage RS-24 “Yars” ICBM, with one stage removed (and some other modifications), the RS-26 had a shorter range, but was no less deadly. In fact, it carried more powerful warheads than the “Pioneer” (at least four 300 kt instead of the latter’s three 150 kt ones), while also being more accurate and impossible to intercept.
This enabled it to target even massive underground command centers or any other high-priority targets across NATO-occupied Europe. However, there was a (geo)political problem with the RS-26. Namely, it was made at a time when the INF Treaty was still in force (banning all missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 km). So, for the RS-26 to formally comply with this, it had to have a range greater than 5,500 km. Otherwise, it would violate the INF Treaty and be designated as an IRBM.
To avoid this, it was designed to achieve a maximum range of 5,800 km, just enough to be designated as an ICBM. However, this created another problem, as it affected the New START treaty. Namely, this would force Russia to reduce the number of its, so to speak, “purebred” ICBMs such as “Yars”, R-36M2 “Voevoda” and RS-28 “Sarmat”. As a result, in 2011, the program was postponed for a period after 2027, with most resources diverted to the development of Russia’s new hypersonic weapons.
However, on August 2, 2019, the US unilaterally withdrew from the INF Treaty and started developing previously banned intermediate and medium-range missiles, prompting Russia to respond. These programs accelerated significantly after the start of the special military operation (SMO), resulting in new designs, as well as massive improvements to the existing ones. However, we still didn’t hear almost anything about the RS-26, indicating that the program might have even been scrapped altogether.
But, on April 12 this year, Moscow tested an “unnamed ICBM”. To this day, the Russian military is yet to publicly reveal the exact type of the missile launched that day. At the time, I argued that the missile was actually the RS-26, as it had striking similarities with the previously mentioned RS-24 that the “Rubezh” was actually based on, including the way it conducted wobbling maneuvers designed to confuse NATO’s ABM (anti-ballistic missile) systems, making it virtually impossible to intercept.
For seven months, no news came through about this “mysterious ICBM”. Until the early hours of November 21, that is. Initially, the Russian military didn’t reveal what missile it was, letting NATO contemplate what to do next. However, the “mysterious ICBM” was soon not only uncovered, but actually named – “Oreshnik” (“Hazel” in Russian). However, solid information about the missile is extremely scant, fueling all sorts of speculation, wild guessing and outright misinformation.
For instance, the Pentagon insists the missile that hit Dnepropetrovsk was fired from Kapustin Yar, a testing site in the Astrakhan oblast (region) in southern Russia, located over 1000 km to the east. This distance is too short for an ICBM, raising questions about the veracity of the US military’s claims. Then, videos from Kazakhstan emerged, specifically over the city of Satbayev, which is 1,500 km to the east of Kapustin Yar. Even more interestingly, some 450 km to the southeast lies Sary Shagan.
This place is home to one of the largest and most important missile test sites in the former Soviet Union, with the Russian military still using it extensively, including during the aforementioned April 12 test. It’s simply impossible to see “Oreshnik” fly over Satbayev if it was fired from Kapustin Yar to Dnepropetrovsk. However, it’s certainly possible that the missile was fired from Sary Shagan. Still, NATO doesn’t want to reveal that it flew nearly 2,400 km before hitting its targets with pinpoint precision.
Even more interestingly, videos over Satbayev also show that the missile is wobbling and maneuvering just like the “mysterious ICBM” tested on April 12, further reinforcing the notion that the “Oreshnik” could actually be a conventionally armed “Rubezh”. In addition, its maximum range exceeds 5,000 km, which puts virtually all of Europe in range. And indeed, it makes little sense to get a completely new missile if you have the “Rubezh”, as it’s already a largely finished product.
Technically speaking, there are several possibilities when it comes to the “Oreshnik”. First, it doesn’t even have to be a regular missile and could be some sort of MaRV (maneuverable reentry vehicle), MIRV (multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle), HGV (hypersonic glide vehicle), etc. or perhaps even a hybrid, with the “Rubezh” being the primary missile carrier. The “Rubezh” itself can already carry the “Avangard”, so if the “Oreshnik” is an HGV, it shouldn’t be a problem for the “Rubezh” to deploy it.
Another possibility is that the “Oreshnik” is a completely new missile (not necessarily ballistic, but likely a more advanced hypersonic, maneuvering weapon) that has its own MIRV/MaRV/HGV warheads. There are no definite claims about this at present, simply because very little is publicly known about it. However, personally, I am more inclined to believe that the “Oreshnik” is a conventionally armed HGV that can be carried by nuclear-capable ICBM/IRBMs like the RS-26 “Rubezh”.
The reason is quite simple, because why would someone make something completely new when they already have a finished project that can immediately go into production (the “Rubezh” uses the same production lines as the “Yars”)? This reinforces the notion that the RS-26 is a highly modular design which can be equipped with various types of warheads, including conventional ones. It also harkens back to President Putin’s vision of Russia’s strategic preemptive strike capabilities.
One more thing that should be noted about the “Oreshnik” is that it was certainly an overkill against the Neo-Nazi junta. Russia’s more tactical and operational level missiles could’ve easily conducted this. However, given the fact that Moscow is faced with the increasingly delusional and aggressive West, it just had to demonstrate its firepower, prompting Putin to authorize the long-range strike on Dnepropetrovsk. This is a particularly important message to both the US and EU/NATO.
In terms of the functioning of the missile’s warhead, the available footage shows at least 30 smaller projectiles divided into five groups (six in each). The lack of visible detonations (although at least one was seen) suggests these are probably advanced kinetic penetrators capable of annihilating heavily defended and dug-in positions. This means that any NATO base anywhere in Europe and/or elsewhere would be in range, but Russia wouldn’t need to rely on its thermonuclear arsenal to deter aggression.
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doesn’t get any more prophetic and scary than this!… i have this visual from the movie outland where sean connery as the marshal is getting roughed up by a thug trying to kill him when he manages to secure his “shot gun” blowing two holes into the wall where the thugs head saying -“think about it”!… russia’s technology in the business of nuclear protection has always been scary and if wiser more rational heads in the west don’t prevail their dream will become reality!…
… and this is also why russia should have seen them moving their commerce and money out of the western neighborhood 10 years ago after cia-mi6-mossad trifecta moved into the eastern donbas with that coup…. if putin thinks he will ever get that money unfrozen out of western banks (including his own) he also too needs a dose of reality!…
it’s also equally insane to see russia’s energy continuing to do business with the west after statement(s) like this – “miami investor secretly trying to buy russia’s nord stream 2 pipeline”…
ok, stop reading msm news, you’re starting to sound fringe lunatic…
that doesn’t matter. the eu has more money invested in russia than vice versa and they are losing everything. they are also destroying foreign confidence in their economy. russia comes out ahead all round.
on your “statement that the eu has more money invested in russia than vice versa” prove it!… especially when it comes to bribes and kickbacks at the favorite fun house at 405 east 42nd street, new york, ny, 10017, usa. to the ca$in0 management’s liking?…
300b will be secured and collected from the rump of ukraine that refuses to join russia…
that is just scaremongering. even if putin used nukes against ukraine, it would just be political suicide for him. no-one will hit russia with nukes, unless russia hits nato. hitting any country outside of nato with nukes will just make putin war criminal, not world destroyer.
he would be joining the likes of the majik negro, george w. bush, netanyahu, etc.
exactly. and hitler.
and 500 years of british rule.
you are living in the past. the situation could easily warrant nuke strikes by russia. we the usa dropped the bombs on japan-we are not hitler or nutty-yahoo. it’s a different world now. lots of countries have nukes.
putin a war criminal? well, at least he’d finally be joining the rules-based order crowd. isn’t that what they wanted?
think it’s getting pretty close to the time that nuland and hubby kagan should be marched out back and brought to justice, ceaușescus style.
yes and the same goes for pootin and merkel, sarkozy, orban, zelensky, netanjahu and all the other jews on this planet !
boy, you surely are the enthusiastic neonazi. do you have tattoos to match?
he has a toilet where his brain should be, very typical banderite…
ceausescu was a good man, a patriot killed by the banksters.
take out brussels and london. we the people in the west don’t want war with russia, or anybody. burocrats took europe hostage.
do the background checks on the bureaucrats join the dots.
if russia is afraid to make kiev pay the price i mean give zelensky a warning tell the population to vacate the city and bomb it to smithereens, flatten it if russia doesn’t have the guts to do this the west won’t take note of all the red lines putin issues after all action speaks much louder than words 💥
that ship sailed. they knew putin wouldn’t.
agreed. if putin bails out on this and does nothing, his prestige will be lost forever. he has been screamed red lines for almost three years now and done nothing. and my bet is he will do nothing ever.
why would putin want it to end? russias doing quite well, brics is expanding, while the collective wests fades into obscurity, a slowly dying dollar.go ahead send nato into ukraine, i dare ya
you all make the big mistake to believe that there is usa-government, eu-governments and russian government and chinese governement and ukrainian government and that somehow these are “in conflict”. wherefore the truth is, they are all jewish controlled entities. all jwo and they are all working together to start ww3 , and want as much as possible none-jews starting to kill each other.
they are all just acting on orders of world jewry. i have posted here the latest statement from victor orban, who just praised netanjahu and the idf, condemned the icc arrest warrant against netanjahu and even directly invited netanjahu for a friendship meeting into hungary. see translation: http://alturl.com/omgzn
russia hesitates to bomb kiev since it’s pretty much a sacred city to them, although polluted for ten years by fascist scum.
https://irunmag.gr/news/zaborski-winner/
second place a russian woman. the toughest race of the world
the wests not delusional about its warfare capabilities every team confident of its supremacy always vie s for the underdog status on the stage. you should know that. they know perfectly well it will not be over for years . profits accrue .
nato thinks it can defeat russia in ww3 with the satellites and air forces it wouldn’t have after 15 minutes. if anything, the cockiness just means the us would be annihilated before it could even shoot
take out the satellites, all their crap is blind
no runways left after 15 min and nuclear stockpiles burning.nato will just bomb germany and poland and say this was someone else.
well if the phones and power don’t work tomorrow then you know what happened. treaties are meaningless.
pussyboy putin with peasized balls is not going to use nukes. he made it clear when he promised to use them and didn’t. another red line crossed and no-one in the west cared. he is too afraid to escalate. better he go to retirement home soon.
the finns traded neutrality for a nuclear bullseye. that surely is the dumbest trade you have ever made. if a country is willing to do that without any serious debate, you cannot be taken seriously by anybody
i dont like nato. but it was a smart move. before russia could have nuked helsinki for free. now nuking helsinki cost more than pre-nato time.
you wanna trade helsinki for moscow? one will not be destroyed without the other.
nuking kiev is still free. after ukraine joins nato bombing kiev cost moscow also.
lol, you have no idea about the british and americans. before nato, russia had 0 reason to nuke finland. you will see, in the future some european country will get nuked if the west does not stop the provocations. that will rattle your bones. you will see that when push comes to shove, the americans give no fucks about you europeans. they will gladly live with europe getting nuked as long as the us mainland is not.
you say usa will fail the same way vladolf did, but vladolf failed with his false fake arguments and prison theft society?
why would russia ever have wanted to nuke helsinki before it joined nato? ridiculous.
too much vodka in the sauna hothouse only creates class a hallucinations. nothing of merit to run a foreign policy on.
russia would want to nuke helsinki the same reason they attacked us in 1939.
and moreover to spread russian influence. from russian neighbouring countries non-nato and not allied with russia finland is the only one which didnt get attacked by russia in the last 20 years.
hang your diapers up. it’s time to grow up, foolish finn.
russia decided after 20 years of trying to get along that it can’t live with nato offensive weapons on its doorstep. what does finland do? declares it’ll put offensive weapons on its doorstep. too much vodka souring your finnish brain, fellow.
besides, nato’s lust after crimea and its goal of turning the black sea into an exclusive nato lake was the seminal event. does finland have a similar situation? of course not.
maybe nato also has designs on murmansk and wants finnish cannon fodder too. i’m sure you’ll be happy to oblige. you sound paranoid enough to comply, no questions asked. all they need say is look, russia lusts after your finnish forests. we must strike first.
i really never thought you finns would so easily fall for so much bullshit.
honest to injun, you finns need psychiatrists more than you need nato.
to make you happy, i’ll give you finland’s future talking point, free of charge:
finland and estonia move to close the baltic sea to sea traffic to/from russia. when russia reacts to break the embargo, you say: “see, russia had plans of aggression all along” good thing we blockaded the baltic first and headed them off at the pass.
circular arguments, the text book logic of fools.
the finn says: “from russian neighbouring countries non-nato and not allied with russia finland is the only one which didnt get attacked by russia in the last 20 years.”
whoa nellie, what the hell are you talking about? the only country in the last 20 years was georgia and georgia started that war by a surprise attack on kshinval, killing a few dozen russian peacekeepers in the process.
why georgia, btw? georgia and ukraine, what do they have in common? why, they both have very attractive ports on the black sea. if nato had sown those up, it’d have accomplished its goal of full control of the black sea and bottlenecked the russian navy at novorossysk. do you need a picture book to understand these simple motivations?
i’ve known russian attitudes well since the 1990’s, apparently you don’t.
in the us, around every election time there’s a saying” “it’s the economy, stupid”
in russia, there’s a saying too: “it’s nato expansion, stupid.”
nato is clearly an aggressive organization. why did it attack serbia over kosovo, and that was after belgrade agreed to withdraw troops and host un peacekeepers? hmmm?
why did nato support ukraine in attacking the donbass then? mirror situation with opposite logic and motives. bet you didn’t know that ukraine killed more civilians in donbass in 8 yrs than serbia killed in kosovo. unmik report, look it up.
i made my case. now let’s see yours. consider yourself challenged.
russia would have assaulted finland immediately, if they had the chance. within russian neighbourhood the only insurance against russian military assault is nato.
foolish finn: the only guarantee for a russian military assault is nato parking its weapons on russia’s borders and using them.
finns made the mistake of allying w hitler
finland was not allied with hitler 1939. that happened after russia assaulted us. i would not call allying with hitler a mistake. there was no better alternative to respond to russian aggression at the time.
mistake was to take german troops here and not to make peace with russia immediately after reaching our old borders. we should have backstabbed both, stalin and hitler.
so, when will you backstab the us, before or after they backstab you? heheheh
fully agree russia raided finland, 1939 poland, later on bulgaria, they raided romania, afghanistan, chechnya, (georgia), ukraine and dozens more – so yes finland needs to prepare its defenses. russia is still a jewish-communist murder-machine. right now it is running amok in ukraine, and its only a matter of time till they moves further west.
who cares what you think? you’re a nazi and a particularly dumb one at that, with invisible commies living rent free between your ears. you’ve already made that clear many times here.
finns are pussies. they talk like pussies and act like pussies. who would ever want to attack a nation of pussies? only americans do that.
finns always do what they promise. not like putin the pussyboy. if we are attacked, we will respond. we have however no desire to wage war against anyone. but if anyone thought it is good idea to attack us, welcome. we are not afraid. we are armed to our teeth.
“finns always do what they promise”
you promised to be neutral, so you’ve already proven yourself to be a liar. heheheh.
anyway, finland is a much ado about nothing nobody, so we don’t need to hear any more about your imaginary problems of your own creation. too much bandwidth you’re taking up.
nuking is last resort—in global conflict russia will only nuke nato bases where significant numbers of amerikans are permitted
not true. in war against nato either russia nukes all the population centers, or it will lose. nuking military bases is loss of perfectly good nukes. when 500 biggest cities in nato and russia get destroyed and we have nuclear winter, it is a stalemate. both lose. not everyone will die, but 90-99% of all in russia/nato and 30-99% of humanity.
very true. had ukraine been able to join nato in 2014 immediately or at least in 2015 then russia wouldn t have dared to raid that nation. of course usa too is responsible as it made ukraine abandon its nuclear weapons, and now does not give ukraine the appropriate amount and kinds of weapons it needs to defend itself against putin’s red invader horde.
ru need to understand the west is done with them.people dont hate ru population but they hate communism.western governments are full of communists,jews, marxists & all that scum.ru is a jewish-communist dictatorship, what’s why they are always lying & have trash-economy.ruskis should stay out of europe, stop stealing ukro land + instead invest& buildup their own country.they’ve enough resources & land – just the corrupt anti-ru gov is hindering real progress in ru.
russian and western interests do not align. the fact is that politicians in us and europe fantasise about break up of russia and getting all their natural resources. surrounding russia with nato countries helps to get this done so russia is rightly responding to ukrainian desire to join nato and oppression of russian minority in ukraine.
now you’re talking sense. are you bipolar by chance?
amerikunt bullies always back down —they lose all wars except vs grenada…they are lizard species hide under rock when mighty north korean seeks zoo animal
i do not hide in gay bar except when diarrea in my diapers
if you say so yuri.
creo que rusia debería utilizar 1 o 2 armas nucleares tácticas de bajo rendimiento, de 1 a 5 kilotones contra alguna base militar o complejo industrial militar de ucrania. esto en respuesta a los ataques de ucrania y sus socios occidentales con misiles de largo alcance contra tropas y bases rusas. creo que es la única manera de disuadir de una manera creíble y certera, de que si la situación sigue escalando, toda europa y ee.uu está al alcance de las armas nucleares rusas.
“because the same people are telling us . . .” need to add any thing more ? anyway, on rumble if you get into what a guy called matt guertin has analysed on this oct.7 ‘attack’ and the outright distortions in the “documented” filming, due to what he explains as the gan a1 software used to make it and issues with authenticity, you’ll realise how premeditated this whole rotten event was.
amerikunt bullies always back down except in our gay bars
vladolf what did you do. kept the prison camp society, and now started the nazi war.. arresting people on the streets to send into zombie nazi war. your socialism and nationalism = nazism. what an ongoing failure from start to end. vladolf fucked up even without the reputation of being a vodka drinker like the others. is this a result of socialism society and vladolfs homelessness?
the whole sf article is bullshit and a lie. atacms are no ” long-range missiles” , not even medium-range missiles !!! as atacms have max range of 300km, whereas medium-range missiles by definition start at 800 km range. and taurus and storm shadow too are far below 800 km range, with both having max range of just about 550 km. atacms, taurus and stormshadow are all short-range missiles !!! see: https://kuty.me/7cd
you, the idiot nazi twist reality once again. it’s western media that’s been using the term ‘long-range’ since the start of this crap fest.
drago and the kremlin parrots believe they and russians will win or survive a nuclear war ,drago and his crew must think they have radiation immunity or they would blow up the planet just because their pissed and want a flufy war as siria thechenia …say old song from the 21 neo nazis from vladolf
drago when is not eating is icecream with the forehead is spreading the fascist old songs cause they hate the bright side of the world cause they grew up with urss misery
i dont think either side wants the war to end. neither side is making any strategic or tactical move to end the war, especially russia. its simply, “i made my move, now your turb, ok, now i make my next move”. kiev could have had a pro russian govt by now. no theres something more to this smo than meets the eye that we are not being told
little vlad is bluffing again!
usa-nato are laughing at this sad little midget!
heheheh
in reality shows of force and talk of agreements does nothing to stop a psychopathic suicidal imbecile. russia must surely understand that these are the kinds of individuals that have all the power in the collective west. the living know that they will die but the dead (collective west) know nothing.
yanks and eu and uk are too stupid to see the escalaltion and danger they have caused. it is their way and only their way and there is no compromise. they install military bases surrounding certain countries far from their own countries and when they get some retaliation then they say look those other nations are the agressors. how stupid and arrogant is that.
left wants to kill trump like kennedy, and other enemy states too. trump must up 2x more security immediatelly. trump’s 1st job must be firing top usa (left)generals , if trump do not fire these left generals coup will be loading same as brazil in usa and trump will gone.
1.trump ordered expelling 15000 transgender soldiers (from army) 15000 gender, transsexual will be fire. bad news because army start getting better. 2.trump will give no money ukraine why? because 12 million migrants will be fire from america and money will go to america migrant war, not to ukraine 3. trump said to (eu president) if russia attacts you, usa will not come help you) why? 4. because trump and republicans will fix america, not ukraine, not europa.usame el muzammed, germany.
left wants to kill trump like kennedy, and other enemy states too. trump must up 2x more security immediatelly. trump’s 1st job must be firing top usa (left)generals , if trump do not fire these left generals coup will be loading same as brazil in usa and trump will gone.
trump will save children from transsexual genders. mass deport all trans genders to mexica.
trump will save children from transsexual genders. mass deport all trans genders to mexico. fastly go go go. mass deportations genders now. be a trumper for the kids safety. make america great again
today ukraine attacked to russian soil again with us weapons. so we are waiting pussyboy putin give final final warning. then final final final warning. eventually final×100000 warning.
i have never seen anyone other than putin giving so many final warnings. it is like a weak boy at my school 30 cm shorter than me and lifting 5× less weights than me giving me final warning until he will beat me up. he also gave a lot of final warnings. but putin gives more. he is the top dog of final warnings.
the israelis ignored iran, and got walloped… zionists control the west, they will ignore reality too…side effect of adrenochrone lifestyle… if they didn’t have double standards, they’d have no standards at all. expect to see conventional decapitation strikes on nato and eu ‘decision’ making centers soon, like switzerland and luxemburg… most of england will be ignored, thatcher gutted our industries, our main form of income is pot growing now…