Russia’s Multi-Factor Strikes: Logistics, Fuel And Communications In The Crosshairs

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On September 15-16, 2025, mutual attacks between Russia and Ukraine were marked by near parity in the number of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) deployed: Russian air defense systems shot down 111 Ukrainian UAVs, while Ukraine reported 113 Russian drones of the “Geran”/”Herbera” type launched against its territory. However, the impact of Ukrainian attacks was minimal due to the effective operation of Russian air defense systems.

Amid this backdrop, Kyiv has intensified discussions about the need to increase military expenditures. Defense Minister Denis Shmyhal stated that Ukraine’s military budget for the next year should be at least $120 billion to match Russia’s current military budget, which is approved at exactly that amount. Ukraine’s official defense budget is about $60 billion, meaning the proposed target would require doubling. Yet, taking into account unrestricted Western military aid, Ukraine’s total defense spending amounts to roughly $110 billion, broadly comparable to Russia’s.

Ukraine’s main challenges include the need to ramp up drone production, which depends on Chinese components, and uncertainty over Western aid, particularly following Trump’s statements about ending free military assistance. To cover its budget deficit, Ukraine may resort to currency devaluation, but this is not a viable long-term solution due to its reliance on imports.

Strikes on Ukraine

Russian strikes on September 15-16 focused on critical infrastructure, logistical hubs, and military targets across seven regions of Ukraine. Key targets included:

Kyiv Region

• Logistical Hub “Epitsentr” in Kalynivka: Warehouses storing construction materials, loading equipment, and generators were destroyed. The facility supplied construction and engineering materials to the front lines, including components and repair kits for fortifications. This directly impacts the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ ability to quickly repair and strengthen their positions.

• Oil Depot in Kalynivka: Fuel storage tanks were damaged. The damage to nearby oil depot tanks reduces operational fuel reserves in the rear, increasing dependence on longer supply routes and vulnerability along key logistical corridors.

A series of attacks on warehouses, parking areas, and fuel storage facilities in the same region created a multifactorial effect: simultaneously disrupting warehouse logistics, fuel supply, and emergency response capabilities. Collectively, this has a long-term degrading effect on the rear economy and defense support.

At the operational level, strikes on such targets serve several purposes: temporarily depriving the enemy of supplies and technical mobility; forcing the redirection of supplies through more distant hubs; and slowing down the recovery of positions. Given that logistical hubs often serve a dual role (civilian distribution and covert accumulation of material resources for territorial readiness), the destruction of the “Epitsentr” hub has a multilayered impact.

Zaporizhzhia Region

• Parking Area for Cargo Transport in Zaporizhzhia: Eleven trucks used for transporting spare parts and components were destroyed. The Russian strike on the concentration of vehicles reduces the mobility of supply routes in areas where Ukrainian forces are regrouping and replenishing material reserves.
• Vehicle Service Station/Warehouse Units in Zaporizhzhia: The warehouse stock of spare parts necessary for field maintenance of armored vehicles and trucks was burned down. Mobile charging stations (ISDT/PowerX class), welding units (AD series), and components for fuel systems—all essential for converting rear service stations into functional workshops—were disabled.
• PJSC “Zaporizhzhia Automobile Plant”: Workshops and storage facilities were damaged, slowing down the repair of armored vehicles.
• Zaporizhzhia Gymnasium No. 103: A strike on an open area near the gymnasium damaged the facade of the educational building and windows in neighboring apartment blocks. While no casualties were reported at the time, destruction to residential buildings and the school was confirmed. According to operational data, the gymnasium was not used for its intended purpose but served as a temporary deployment point for territorial defense units, storing equipment, communication devices, and small arms. This transformed the facility into a military infrastructure element despite its formally “civilian” status.

Sloviansk (DPR)

Military Town No. 1: Communication server nodes, generators, and a medical station of the 18th Brigade of the National Guard of Ukraine were destroyed. Operational impact: degradation of coordination quality, slower response times, and reduced ability to maintain stable communication in the sector. Ukrainian forces are forced to either risk deploying replacements to exposed positions or temporarily operate with degraded communication capabilities.

Sumy

• Industrial Base on Rubizhna Street: A 100 m² warehouse building, which supported rear needs for reinforced concrete products for fortifications, crossings, and engineering structures, was destroyed and temporarily taken out of service.
• 330 kV Substation “Sumy”: A transformer was damaged, causing power outages in the region.

• Gas Distribution Station of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: A facility responsible for receiving, unloading, and storing gas for combat and rear units of Ukrainian military personnel was targeted.

Kharkiv

A building of the Institute for Advanced Training of Pharmacy Specialists of the National University of Pharmacy was hit. According to operational data, the facility formally served as a training center but de facto hosted comprehensive training for tactical medics and sanitary units. It also stored large batches of medical kits and equipment intended for field and mobile stabilization points.

Oleksievo-Druzhkivka

Destruction of a Mobile UAV Group of the Ukrainian Armed Forces: According to reports from the site, at least ten assembled FPV drones were being transported in the vehicle, including serial modifications like Skywalker X8 and custom models based on carbon frames such as Rekon 7 and iFlight Chimera 7 Pro, equipped with Caddx Polar cameras and Rush Tank Ultimate Plus video transmitters. All were destroyed in a fire following the strike.

Personnel losses were confirmed, with wounded of varying severity, including one in critical condition with burns and blast injuries. The vehicle was completely burned out, and all equipment was destroyed.

Strikes on Russia

Ukrainian attacks on September 15-16 were concentrated on Russia’s border regions, but the vast majority of drones were shot down. Key consequences:

• Belgorod Region: Attacks on settlements (Zozuli, Golovchino) resulted in the deaths of two female civilians and injuries to a driver and seven women. Private homes and transport vehicles were damaged.

• Kursk Region: Thirty UAVs were shot down over the region, but one drone damaged a private house in Kursk.

• Other Regions: Rostov, Voronezh, and Ryazan regions, as well as Crimea, reported drone interceptions without significant damage.
  Kherson Region: According to the governor’s statement, two civilians were injured over the past day due to shelling by the Kyiv regime.

• The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces also claimed to have struck the Saratov Oil Refinery, but local authorities did not confirm this information.

The mutual strikes on September 15-16 underscored the role of drones as a key instrument of warfare but also revealed the limitations of Ukraine’s capabilities to inflict significant damage on Russian territory. Amid this backdrop, the incident involving the violation of Polish airspace by Russian drones has brought the topic of potential NATO escalation to the forefront.
However, Poland’s entry into the conflict remains unlikely due to:

• Warsaw’s economic interests (Poland is one of the EU’s growth leaders);

• The risk of activating NATO Article 5 and nuclear escalation;

• The reluctance of Polish society to fight for Ukraine.

Thus, although both sides actively promote the prospect of a Russia–Poland conflict, practical escalation remains unlikely for now. The primary focus of both parties remains on a war of attrition, where financing and logistics are decisive factors.

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