Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review
Events in Syria have recently clearly taken a turn for the worse and there is an increasing amount of evidence that the Russian task force in Syria is being targeted by a systematic campaign of “harassing attacks”.
First, there was the (relatively successful) drone and mortar attack on the Russian Aerospace base in Khmeimin. Then there was the shooting down of a Russian SU-25 over the city of Maasran in the Idlib province. Now we hear of Russian casualties in the US raid on a Syrian column (along with widely exaggerated claims of “hundreds” of killed Russians). In the first case, Russian officials did openly voice their strong suspicion that the attack was if not planned and executed by the USA, then at least coordinated with the US forces in the vicinity. In the case of the downing of the SU-25, no overt accusations have been made, but many experts have stated that the altitude at which the SU-25 was hit strongly suggests a rather modern MANPAD of a type not typically seen in Syria (the not so subtle hint being here that these were US Stingers sent to the Kurds by the USA). As for the latest attack on the Syrian column, what is under discussion is not who did it but rather what kind of Russian personnel was involved, Russian military or private contractors (the latter is a much more likely explanation since the Syrian column had no air-cover whatsoever). Taken separately, none of these incidents mean very much but taken together they might be indicative of a new US strategy in Syria: to punish the Russians as much as possible short of an overt US attack on Russian forces. To me this hypothesis seems plausible for the following reasons:
First, the USA and Israel are still reeling in humiliation and impotent rage over their defeat in Syria: Assad is still in power, Daesh is more or less defeated, the Russians were successful not only their military operations against Daesh but also in their campaign to bring as many “good terrorists” to the negotiating table as possible. With the completion of a successful conference on Syria in Russia and the general agreement of all parties to begin working on a new constitution, there was a real danger of peace breaking out, something the AngloZionist are absolutely determined to oppose (check out this apparently hacked document which, if genuine, clearly states the US policy not to allow the Russian to get anything done).
Second, both Trump and Netanyahu have promised to bring in lots of “victories” to prove how manly and strong they are (as compared to the sissies which preceded them). Starting an overt war against Russian would definitely be a “proof of manhood”, but a much too dangerous one. Killing Russians “on the margins”, so to speak, either with plausible deniability or, alternatively, killing Russians private contractors is much safer and thus far more tempting option.
Third, there are presidential elections coming up in Russia and the US Americans are still desperately holding on to their sophomoric notion that if they create trouble for Putin (sanctions or body bags from Syria) they can somehow negatively impact his popularity in Russia (in reality they achieve the opposite effect, but they are too dull and ignorant to realize that).
Last but not least, since the AngloZionist have long lost the ability to actually getting anything done, their logical fall-back position is not let anybody else succeed either. This is the main purpose of the entire US deployment in northern Syria: to create trouble for Turkey, Iran, Syria and, of course, Russia.
The bottom line is this: since the US Americans have declared that they will (illegally) stay in Syria until the situation “stabilizes” they now must do everything their power to destabilize Syria. Yes, there is a kind of a perverse logic to all that…
For Russia, all this bad news could be summed up in the following manner: while Russia did defeat Daesh in Syria she is still far from having defeated the AngloZionists in the Middle-East. The good news is, however, that Russia does have options to deal with this situation.
Step one: encouraging the Turks
There is a counter-intuitive but in many ways an ideal solution for Russia to counter the US invasion of Syria: involve the Turks. How? Not by attacking the US forces directly, but by attacking the Kurdish militias the US Americans are currently “hiding” behind (at least politically). Think of it, while the US (or Israel) will have no second thoughts whatsoever before striking Syrian or Iranian forces, actually striking Turkish forces would carry an immense political risk: following the US-backed coup attempt against Erdogan and, just to add insult to injury, the US backing for the creation of a “mini-Kurdistsan” both in Iraq and in Syria, US-Turkish relations are at an all-time low and it would not take much to push the Turks over the edge with potentially cataclysmic consequences for the US, EU, NATO, CENTCOM, Israel and all the AngloZionist interests in the region. Truly, there is no overstating the strategic importance of Turkey for Europe, the Mediterranean and the Middle-East, and the US Americans know that. From this flows a very real if little understood consequence: the Turkish armed forces in Syria basically enjoy what I would call a “political immunity” from any US attacks, that is to say that (almost) no matter what the Turks do, the US would (almost) never consider actually openly using force against them simply because the consequence of, say, a USAF strike on a Turkish army column would be too serious to contemplate.
In fact, I believe that the US-Turkish relationship is so bad and so one-sided that I see a Turkish attack on a Kurdish (or “good terrorist”) column/position with embedded US Special Forces far more likely than a US attack on a Turkish army column. This might sound counter-intuitive, but let’s say the Turks did attack a Kurdish (or “good terrorist”) column/position with US personnel and that US servicemen would die as the result. What would/could the US do? Retaliate in kind? No way! Not only is the notion of the US attacking a fellow NATO country member is quite unthinkable, it would most likely be followed by a Turkish demand that the US/NATO completely withdraw from Turkey’s territory and airspace. In theory, the US could ask the Israelis to do their dirty job for them, but the Israelis are not stupid (even if they are crazy) and they won’t have much interest in starting a shooting war with Turkey over what is a US-created problem in a “mini-Kurdistan”, lest any hallowed “Jewish blood” be shed for some basically worthless goyim.
No, if the Turks actually killed US servicemen there would be protests and a flurry of “consultations” and other symbolic actions, but beyond that, the US would take the losses and do nothing about it. As for Erdogan, his popularity at home would only soar even higher. What all this means in practical terms is that if there is one actor which can seriously disrupt the US operations in northern Syria, or even force the US to withdraw, it is Turkey. That kind of capability also gives Turkey a lot of bargaining power with Russia and Iran which I am sure Erdogan will carefully use to his own benefit. So far Erdogan has only threatened to deliver an “Ottoman slap” to the USA and Secretary of State Tillerson is traveling to Ankara to try to avert a disaster, but the Turkish instance that the USA chose either the Turkish or the Kurdish side in the conflict very severely limits the chances of any real breakthrough (the Israel lobby being 100% behind the Kurds). One should never say never, but I submit that it would take something of a miracle at this point to really salvage the US-Turkish relationship. Russia can try to capitalize on this dynamic.
The main weakness of this entire concept is, of course, that the USA is still powerful enough, including inside Turkey, and it would be very dangerous for Erdogan to try to openly confront and defy Uncle Sam. So far, Erdogan has been acting boldly and in overt defiance of the USA, but he also understands the risks of going too far and for him to even consider taking such risks there have to be prospects of major benefits from him. Here the Russians have two basic options: either to promise the Turks something very inciting or to somehow further deteriorate the current relationship between the US and Turkey. The good news here is that Russian efforts to drive a wedge between the US and Turkey are be greatly assisted by the US support for Israel, Kurds, and Gulenists.
The other obvious risk is that any anti-Kurdish operation can turn into yet another partition of Syria, this time by the Turks. However, the reality is that the Turks can’t really stay for too long in Syria, especially not if Russia and Iran oppose this. There is also the issue of international law which is much easier for the USA to ignore than for the Turks.
For all these reasons using the Turks to put pressure on the USA has its limitations. Still, if the Turks continue to insist that the USA stop supporting the Kurds, or if they continue putting military pressure on the Kurdish militias, then the entire US concept of a US-backed “mini-Kurdistan” collapses and, with it, the entire US partition plan for Syria.
So far, the Iraqis have quickly dealt with the US-sponsored “mini-Kurdistan” in Iraq and the Turks are now taking the necessary steps to deal with the US-sponsored “mini-Kurdistan” in Syria at which point *their* problem will be solved. The Turks are not interested in helping Assad or, for that matter, Putin and they don’t care what happens to Syria as long as *their* Kurdish problem is under control. This means that the Syrians, Russians, and Iranians should not place too much hope on the Turks turning against the USA unless, of course, the correct circumstances are created. Only the future will tell whether the Russians and the Iranians will be able to help to create such circumstances.
Step two: saturating Syria with mobile modern short/middle range air defenses
Right now nobody knows what kind of air-defense systems the Russians have been delivering to the Syrians over the past couple of years, but that is clearly the way to go for the Russians: delivering as many modern and mobile air defense systems to the Syrians. While this would be expensive, the best solution here would be to deliver as many Pantsir-S1 mobile Gun/SAM systems and 9K333 Verba MANPADs as possible to the Syrians and the Iranians. The combination of these two systems would immensely complicate any kind of air operations for the US Americans and Israelis, especially since there would be no practical way of reliably predicting the location from which they could operate. And since both the USA and Israel are operating in the Syrian skies in total violation of international law while the Syrian armed forces would be protecting their own sovereign airspace, such a delivery of air-defense systems by Russia to Syria would be impeccably legal. Best of all, it would be absolutely impossible for the AngloZionist to know who actually shot at them since these weapon systems are mobile and easy to conceal. Just like in Korea, Vietnam or Lebanon, Russian crews could even be sent to operate the Syrian air defense systems and there would be no way for anybody to prove that “the Russians did it” when US and Israeli aircraft would start falling out of the skies. The Russians would enjoy what the CIA calls “plausible deniability”. The US Americans and Israelis would, of course, turn against the weaker party, the Syrians, but that other than feeling good that would not really make a difference on the ground as the Syrians skies would not become safer for US or Israelis air forces.
The other option for the Russians would be to offer upgrades (software and missile) to the existing Syrian air defense systems, especially their road-mobile 2K12 Kub and 9K37 Buk systems. Such upgrades, especially if combined with enough deployed Pantsirs and Verbas would be a nightmare for both the US Americans and the Israelis. The Turks would not care much since they are already basically flying with the full approval of the Russians anyway, and neither would the Iranians who, as far as I know, have no air operations in Syria.
One objection to this plan would be that two can play this game and that there is nothing preventing the USA from sending even more advanced MANPADs to their “good terrorist” allies, but that argument entirely misses the point: if both sides do the same thing, the side which is most dependent on air operations (the USA) stands to lose much more than the side which has the advantage on the ground (the Russians). Furthermore, by sending MANPADs to Syria, the USA is alienating a putative ally, Turkey, whereas if Russia sends MANPADs and other SAMs to Syria the only one who will be complaining will be the Israelis. When that happens, the Russians will have a simple and truthful reply: we did not start this game, your US allies did, you can go and thank them for this mess.
The main problem in Syria is the fact that the US and the Israelis are currently operating in the Syrian skies with total impunity. If this changes, this will be a slow and gradual process. First, there would be a few isolated losses (like the Israeli F-16 recently), then we would see that the location of US and/or Israeli airstrikes would gradually shit from urban centers and central command posts to smaller, more isolated targets (such as vehicle columns). This would indicate an awareness that the most lucrative targets are already too well defended. Eventually, the number of air sorties would be gradually replaced by cruise and ballistic missiles strikes. Underlying it all would be a shift from offensive air operations to force protection which, in turn, would give the Syrians, Iranians, and Hezbollah a much easier environment to operate in. But the necessary first step for any of that to happen would be to dramatically increase the capability of Syrian air defenses.
Hezbollah has, for decades, very successfully operated under a total Israelis air supremacy and their experience of this kind of operations would be invaluable to the Syrians until they sufficiently built up their air defense capabilities.
Conclusion: is counter-escalation really the only option?
Frankly, I am starting to believe that the Empire has decided to attempt upon a partial “reconquista” of Syria, even Macron is making some noises about striking the Syrians to “punish” them for their use of (non-existing) chemical weapons. At the very least, the USA wants to make the Russians pay as high a price as possible for their role in Syria. Further US goals in Syria include:
- The imposition of a de-facto partition of Syria by taking under control the Syrian territory east of the Euphrates river (we could call that “plan C version 3.0”)
- The theft of the gas fields located in northeastern Syria
- The creation of a US-controlled staging area from which Kurdish, good terrorist and bad terrorist operations can be planned and executed
- The sabotaging of any Russian-backed peace negotiations
- The support for Israeli operations against Iranian and Hezbollah forces in Lebanon and Syria
- Engaging in regular attacks against Syrian forces attempting to liberate their country from foreign invaders
- Presenting the invasion and occupation of Syria as one of the “victories” promised by Trump to the MIC and the Israel lobby
So far the Russian response to this developing strategy has been a rather a passive one and the current escalation strongly suggests that a new approach might be needed. The shooting down of the Israeli F-16 is a good first step, but much more needs to be done to dramatically increase the costs the Empire will have to pay for is policies towards Syria. The increase in the number of Russian commentators and analysts demanding a stronger reaction to the current provocations might be a sign that something is in the making.
Adding the sudden rush of more “it wuz Russia” on the cyber attack front, and the increase in military to the European area bordering Russia and things are looking increasingly worrying. It does increasingly appear that, one way or another, the American Ruling Mafia are determined to wage a war with Russia. This is not something Putin is going to be drawn into easily, in spite of growing impatience at home [if a few comments along these lines be true]. But silence from Russia is almost as ominous. I just wonder if the American sheep can understand this. There’s an old saying “Russians take a long time to saddle up – but then they ride like the wind”. If Russia does get pushed, as any street fighter knows, you never signal your intentions. A Russian response will I suspect, come like a bolt out of the blue, and shock the pants off the recipients. But when, where, how and on what provocation – only the Russian High Command knows.
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Speaking as one American, I get it. The opinion and thinking is increasing rapidly, that we need to ‘get out of Syria’. The MIC, Congress, President a la mode, don’t have support for getting any deeper into this thing. If 100 of my countrymen died in a week over there, pffffffft, you would not believe what would come next from the American public. Russia knows this. President Putin knows this and is very pragmatic in measuring the responses. CENTCOM, in my opinion, knows this but, are required to obey the politicians and political groups that started this horror.
My people are now aware a deadly spider web which has been constructed for them. The clamp down on free speech, as well as the geopolitical stances, food supply, educational system and medical system has been rigged. Many get that now. Many are fighting the prison that has been constructed for us. Our keepers are now frightened. At present, our victories against the ‘system’ are not clearly read or understood but, they exist. Look closer and you can see it. I wish well to you Isabella Jones.
You bring me good news to start the day – thank you John. I have long felt – and said – that we cannot get the revolution, the evolution away from, the turn against the Ruling Mafia in America, until hte American people start it. You are there, you have the right to effect change, and you are “on-site”. We are not, we are affected – to varying degrees – by things America does, but we who are not Americans cannot do much. Only the Rulers of the saviour countries can, like Russia. And they are. I have been waiting and hoping for an awakening of the American people for a long time, so it’s encouraging to me that you say it’s happening. I hope you can all keep it growing. Thank you for your good wishes – I return them, and wish you very well also. Stay safe and well.
american people are guilty for the action of ther politician .. is so difficult ??
You can think what you want. Everybody has their hands dipped in blood. The locals in each place, betrayed their people too. We have to end the cycles of greed and violence. Keeping focused on that is the only thing which separates the chances of succeeding and not.
I looked up your post count, 11 at this point. We need people who are conscious, not just bandwagon or newbie posters like yourself. Never the less, welcome to the show. I wish well to you.
All because of the US. You corrupted everything.
Hello Philippe. I read your other post to me and replied. All of 23 comments you have at this time. I look forward to the way you shall view the world in the time to come. It shall evolve. Good luck to you.
Not that simple, Philippe: “the first head of state who wanted a Jewish Homeland established was Lord Cromwell, 17th century.” It was always about Brit/Bankster Global domination. Article: http://www.voltairenet.org/article187030.html Scroll down to note [13] Book: Pawns in the Game, William Guy Carr.
What you have to end is your never-ending destruction of nations and mass murder of civilians who never did a damn thing to you!
Now why don’t you go look up my comment count – tho’ it’s beyond me why you regard such as important or relevant!
Hello Shahna. Over 44,300 I see. Well think about it, as to why the comment count, in certain posters would be important. I know you can figure it out.
As to what I have to do, been doing it. Have you read any of my posts over the last three years, over the last ten years, including the ones not on Disqus? Have you seen the replies I have gotten from my own countrymen, when repeatedly telling the powers that be, that we need to stop it? I think not.
So, if you wish to join those attempting a constructive flow, attempting to better humanity, those doing so as individuals, who were part of the system, who go right at the CIA, NSA, DoD, DoS, et al with our opinions and displeasure over the situation, because we know them, because we were them, then welcome aboard. Don’t be like others who attack the ones who have been fighting on the side of the people getting the shaft. Because, that is what the remark you made here sounds like to me. Am I wrong about that? I wish all to be well with you and yours Shahna.
For years, nay decades, while you whine your displeasure over “your situation” YOU, YOUR COUNTRY, has been destroying people, their countries and their livelihoods. While you have been “shafted” you have been KILLING people in their millions – yes millions – since the end of WW2. Killing people in faraway countries, countries and people who never did a damn thing to you. EVER. Your victims should be so lucky as to get merely a shafting!
So cry me a river. The only good American is a DEAD American. Because a dead American can’t kill people, can’t destroy countries, can’t torture and can’t Gitmo even children, can’t drop depleted uranium on homes and white phosphorus on children, can’t lie to itself or the world everytime it opens its mouth, can’t regime-change Other People’s Countries instead of its own, can’t sanction to death people in already dirt poor countries – people whose govts do far, far less than yours does!
All your “constructive flow” does is kill more people. While you waffle and whine and whinge “constructively” YOU ARE KILLING PEOPLE and destroying their countries. You are nothing more than a nation of dirty two-faced murderers.
Why are you (ILLEGALLY) occupying Syria?? So I wish you exactly what you give so generously to others: the death of your loved ones – the destruction of your nation.
Whatever.
Very American of you.
John, what does the number of posts have to do with anything? Face it, the U.S. is the aggressor, trying to defend its petrodollar world empire. Who stopped selling oil in dollars? Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, Iran, and Russia (and more now). Who’ve we bombed? Iraq, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and heaven forbid Iran and Russia. Both “sides” in the U.S. (left vs. right Hegelian dialectic) are manipulated. Mirror images with the same end results.
Hello Tom Tom. I can tell you probably have not paid enough attention to many things going on in either real events and definitely little or no awareness of my posts I have made over a period of a few years now. It’s all good. There is something interesting to me in you comment so, let’s take a short stroll
As to the post count mystery. I gave my explanation to a previous poster, when I told him to think about it. It is interesting that upon giving an example of Hegelian dialectic, you actually touched on a part of it and just didn’t realize you had. A left vs. right Hegelian dialectic, is only one head of the same chimera. Further, not just a chimera in the sense of a primary definition such as a multi headed monster. It additionally applies to a secondary aspect as with regards to something illusory. I wish well to you Tom Tom.
If 100s died no Americans would react. Their psycho leaders have been killing, raping, maiming millions but US citizen keep electing these killers. You are all in it together in the US and as responsible for the horrors as the Germans at large were in WW2.
You don’t know us Philippe.
Americans: “it was bad when Bush invaded Iraq, but it was okay when Obomber bombed Libya, created chaos in Syria, and helped commit genocide in Yemen.”
The Russians keep score, too. The loss of the military contractors will be evened up, sooner or later
I really really hope so Vitex. They have to I suspect, just to stop the American Impunity monster from growing just a big bigger.
Purging every terrorist pocket, especially those near the goddamn capital and maybe Idlib as well would be a fine answer for me. Furthermore, I believe that at least until the Russian elections there will be growing tension.
Good commentary – totally agree! I hope the Yanks are crushed! Someone has to do it and soon!
Putin is playing rope-a-dope. Russia can draw this out for a very very long time and the US is hemorrhaging money every day at 10 times the rate Russia does at least.
It’s also haemorrhaging whatever of street cred and respect it might have had left – and all the time Russia grows in stature.
Hello girl.
Nice comment.
Hi there fella. Thank you.
True, but Russia can not remain passive as its soldiers and citizens are killed daily by Anglo/Zionists. US is more vulnerable than most think from Afghanistan to Libya. Russia should be arming the regional resistance forces and bleed the US occupation forces in Afghanistan, where they are already on the ropes.
Exactly. Orange Clown and his handlers are openly, shamelessly spitting in Russia’s eye. Russia needs to reciprocate; the failure to do so will be taken as weakness and the aggressors will continue to escalate.
Afghanistan and Iraq are indeed the soft under belly of the evil empire! A series of asymmetrical hits of where it hurts most would be a good response.
The sprawling Bagram occupation base or dozens of US occupation bases in Iraq and Syria can be hit with long range rockets even by a blind child. Russia needs to think strategically and work with local resistance forces. US bullies and their NATO puppets work as hyenas and if they smell blood they will destroy Russia like they did the USSR. It is the same template, but this time Russia has a strong determined ally in Iran and 400 million Shia who are much stronger than the Warsaw pact ever was. Time to arm Iran to the hilt.
(…this time Russia has a strong determined ally in Iran and 400 million Shia who are much stronger than the Warsaw pact ever was. Time to arm Iran to the hilt…)
Excellently put! The key is Russia and Iran should be even closer. Iran should allow Russia to have air and sea basis on its soil and Iranian army should be upgraded with new air and sea defense weaponry.
The Iranian constitution does not allow foreign bases, largely as a result of US interference in Iran historically. Foreign bases are a sensitive subject for Iranians considering CIA/MI6 operation Ajax. However, closer military ties are no problem and Russia should signal with concrete steps. Iranians in general like Russia and are the same warrior people of the steppes with inter-locked histories dating back millennium. Many Iranians in the Shomali (North) Caspian Caucasian region have mixed Russian blood and inter-marry frequently. It is time for Russia to create a fortress Iran and protect its weak southern flank. Russia will never find a stronger and more dependable ally than Persians and Shia. Both face the same Anglo-Zionist evil and Wahhabi headchoppers.
(…It is time for Russia to create a fortress Iran and protect its weak southern flank. Russia will never find a stronger and more dependable ally than Persians and Shia. Both face the same Anglo-Zionist evil and Wahhabi headchoppers…)
You are exactly right! I would say the Iranian constitution should be amended to allow Russia to have military bases in Iran as this would benefit both Iran and Russia in the long run.
I would agree. Infact, Russian aircraft did use the excellent base at Hamadan to bomb the US sponsored headchoppers and Iranian upgraded F-14A Persian Cats provided top cover. The US and Zionist media exaggerated things to upset Iranians, but it had no effect. Even the Supreme Leader Khamenei has said that Russians are welcome to use Iranian bases and airspace anytime, and Russia has. I would say initially Russia and Iran should open a few joint air and naval stations on Iranian soil, just like they successfully do in Syria. Russians, Iranians, Hezbollah, SAA and the Shia are bonded by blood now in the battlefields of Syria. Any Russian walking down the street in any Iranian city gets immense respect and hospitality. They can travel visa free now.
(…I would say initially Russia and Iran should open a few joint air and naval stations on Iranian soil, just like they successfully do in Syria. Russians, Iranians, Hezbollah, SAA and the Shia are bonded by blood now in the battlefields of Syria. Any Russian walking down the street in any Iranian city gets immense respect and hospitality. They can travel visa free now…)
Very well-said, indeed! Let us hope Iran and Russia capitalize on this friendship and make into a formal, strategic military partnership in the very near future.
I doubt it: they are in Iraq and Afghanistan because they want to be there. Endless (and controlled) war. A few dead americans, a few dead vassal soldiers, no one really cares, but they maintain military presence in central Asia, the heart of Euroasia. That is their plan. There is one great scene from O.Stone’s movie “W” when Dick Cheney says something like – ‘Our exit strategy from Iraq? There will be no exit.” That’s the whole idea, that’s the point of war in Syria as well, that’s why they created ISIS – to have someone to bomb for the next 10-20 years. Russian intervention ruined their plans, but they recovered. Americans did this deliberately, they knew when and where to bomb, they planned to kill as many Russians as possible (but not to attack their regular troops), and they planned this subsequent media campaign as well. The evil Empire strikes back. And russian options are very limited, unfortunately
I agree. There is always asymmetrical responses open for Russia, SAA, Iran, Hezbollah and allied militia. Russia should keep its cool as things are now very fluid on the ground in Syria and will very likely develop contrary to the evil empire’s plans in the near future. Very important thing for now is that the SAA and the allied militia MUST be provided effective air-defense systems to ward off the constant arial attacks by the evil empire.
“that’s why they created ISIS – to have someone to bomb for the next 10-20 years” Yep. ISIS was their ticket to getting into the Syrian war and setting up bases. ISIS was created right under their noses in Iraq. ISIS was easily taking over all these Iraqi army depots (and some Iraqi soldiers claimed they were told to stand down – and U.S. trained that army and had some control/influence over it). Only after ISIS controlled a large part of Syria did U.S. start with their staged phoney “beheadings” of U.S. operatives/military propagandists in front of a green screen with a Martian-esque landscape. Those were used to sell the intervention to the U.S. populace. They had smirking and smiling crisis actors play the “bereaved” relatives – why they even had two different sets of people playing the parents for James Foley.
Russia is silent . Most likely planning as barking dogs don’t bite. But then Russia is in very tough position as going against US is not an easy option nor allowing US permanent staying in Syria which means a complete victory for US inspite of losing the Syrian war.
Much will depend on Iran actually. Assad as usual is a timid guy who remains quiet as a mouse as other countries are claiming his country he is expected to defend. Silence makes US even more bold in their childish claims
Only Iran is outspoken so far
Joe, Iran can not affect anything. In case of more intesive intervention will be attacked by USA. And no country will help Iran.
Well just explain how is US able to attack Iranian forces in Syria and win. I say and win. Tell me. Air force? Forget it.
Iran taught Hez and right now Houthis how to leak the air Force.
You think Iran will fight different with US? Dream on
Tell us how. I am all ears
USAF has supermacy in Syria. If they decide, will bomb hezbollah and irgc. Lavrov and her blond witch will call for self control at western partners, and thats all.
My foot US has supremacy in Syria.
Assad the great can easily finish off the US troops with his allies helphsnd US cannot do anything about it.
….Houthis and HEZBOLLAH style. ..plus having massive SAM . There is nothing US can do really except trying to bomb Syria which in the first place already bombed.
Most important is to attack and not allow US to reinforce which they can’t anyway.
Even Iraq will be covered
“Assad The Great”. I like it!
more like veloicrapptor you are, no wonder you’ve gone extinct
Another silly claim, no country will help Iran if US attacks.
SAA , pmu, Russia, Hez will and how the heck can US fifgt all these forces unless US threaten nukes which is stupid
…and Iran has land corridor direct from Iran with unlimited supplies and man power which US has none
Get out or be forced out claim by Iran is no idle claim
Iran close Ormuz..and end of the game fro western countries and petrodollar
Closing is easy. Keep closed is difficult. ;)
Iran should spend billions how to close Hormuz and keep it closed.
A few missiles are enough
Just sink one tanker assured no more dare to pass.
Well-said!
If developed teleportation and are able to shift one mountain, than will be successful :)
Keep open and free ship transit more difficult
Russia will not help. Look at Syria; they do sooo minimum… With iran Moscow has wrong past and also the present is not good. For you maybe looks like ok, but i know kremlin. They will nevr be in too close binding with islam/arab country. Once tried, but burned fingers.
The others are insignificant factors. USA will not try to send troops. Simply destroy the key infrastructure within one week, and bye bye.
There you go again. You are not realistic in your reply.
In event of a fight it is understood Russia WILL help!
In your wet dreams that enemies of US will fight alone after Russia had invested sooooo much money, manpower and to protect their base , to have an eye sore stupid US base next to theirs illegally?
You cant even argue logically and another , the fight is to drive US troops in Syria. So how the heck are you to bomb infrastructures and leave your troops to be slaughtered in Syria?
You have to send more troops by the tens of thousands which you do not have.
Essentially , US has no chance . They are only trying their luck.
No sane country can allow an eye sore right in their country to create never ending problems.
A few massive attacks take care of a few miserable soldiers is no Brainier
We will see. I saw several times in my life, thet russians left everything.
You can have joy from your opinions, i hope, never comes to war between iran and usa, because my words will fulfill.
Have a nice day! :)
Cheers. Same to you
Wrong. Iran can rain down dozens of missiles per day, and while fierce retaliations would insue, Iran would be the most likely to weather them. If such action were combined with Saker’s point about mobile SAMs, the US would have to withdraw within a year. Sadly, the Erdogan appears to be in the midst of that betrayal of the Russians that nobody wanted but everyone expected, so point 1 from the Saker is out.
Assad could easily beat the US Coalition if he had more BUK-M1 missiles.
https://journal-neo.org/2018/02/14/will-lebanon-be-the-next-energy-war/
https://medium.com/insurge-intelligence/western-firms-plan-to-cash-in-on-syria-s-oil-and-gas-frontier-6c5fa4a72a92
Old Colonial powers of Sykes Picot are the losers wanting Iraq,Syria,Lebanon,- Energy and Narcotics they lost back. Putin/Russia – positioned for Energy game prior to Overthrow of Iraq, Libya,and present Attempt on Syria. Israel’s never going to obtain more land for their Tribe like the Propoganda Old Testament says.
Planet Rothschild couldn’t give a RIP about Israel…. It’s all usefull leverage in the game of Risk.
Putin could give Syria serious defence systems, ..or signal OK…to Iran,..who can place System’s in Syria which US and Israel would freak out over.
Putin’s resolve ?. Still waiting for Him to square things with Treacherous French Gov over Mistral Contracts.
The French Government???!!!! With their French Foreign Jihadist Legion…..Macaroni Buzz off BOY………you ain’t SHIT!!!!!
Putin has the same problem as Erdogan. He is crazy to get Europe and Russia would be smiling all over their face if Russia could get VisaFree access to Europe. Like Erdogan this means Putin can do nothing bad that jeopardizes Russia´s application to get Europe.
https://southfront.org/turkey-resumes-financial-support-to-free-syrian-army-and-ahrar-al-sham-in-northern-syria-report/ Turkey aiding FSA and Ahrar al Sham to fight SAA. Erdogan is taking advantage of a power vacuum. He is fighting Assad as well as the Kurds. He wants to set up a Kurdish buffer zone on Syrian territory. Remember how Turkey used the geopolitical conflict between western and central powers to steal “Hayat” province from Syria in the 20s and 30s.
The rothschild printing presses will be working overtime supplying worthless paper dollars to give to their proxies ,in exchange for fighting and dying for the evil empire of chaos.This looks like it could be another vietnam for the zionists,as it will be impossible for them to get the oil and gas out because they are surrounded by enemies.
Russian hands are tight actually and Saker always like his earlier articles fails to see the significant of the Iranians. Perhaps my guess is he is Russian?
Moreover it was the Iranians who made the loudest noise about no more Israeli flights while Russia was completely muted. This shows that there is a possibility (may not be) that a lot of Iranian missiles are in the hands of Assad and the Air defence system may have come from Iran not Russia
Iran do have SAM systems
Yeah Mo’ Missiles…… nice testing ground give us all you got, we test’m for free….. Yours sincerely, SAA & Allies…..
I think Saker is half Dutch and half Russian and he grew up in Switzerland. He now is in Florida with his family.
I do not believe the Russians are being pushed by the empire, the empire is generating some fake news to pursuance some Russians that things are not all well in Syria. Syria is a quagmire for the empire, Russia along with Iran should modernize the S200 missiles, what other air to surface missile carries a 250 kgs warhead? Also providing latest MANPADS, Pantsair, Tor systems along with BUK-M2, would stiffen up the air defenses. When SAA and Hezbollah and allies will cross Euphrates to challenge the Kurds, US Air Force will be challenged and attacked.
Let’s hope so, Russia needs to draw a line in Syria or the emboldened Zio/Anglo axis of evil will be further emboldened and destroy Russia itself. They are most scared of Russia arming Iran and Hezbollah and it should. Why is Russia selling lethal weapons to its sworn enemies in Turkeys and Saudi headchoppers? This is not a time to praise “partners” who are gleefully killing Russians in Syria. Why did the Russian forces in Deir Azzor not have air cover or SAM umbrella?
Russia is very adept in bleeding to death its enemies slowly.
Let’s hope so. Time to turn up the heat in Afghanistan and do 1980’s and reverse the tables on the US cowards. Also arm Iran and Hezbollah to the hilt and see the regional balance of power shift on a dime. The first thing Russia needs to do is to release 30-40 SU-35 to Iran and watch US squirm. Also transfer the S-400 to Syrian command as that gives Russia plausible deniability when US intruders are shot out of the sky. It is Syrian land and they are entitled defend their airspace. US is an illegal occupation force that must be resisted.
(…Also arm Iran and Hezbollah to the hilt and see the regional balance of power shift on a dime. The first thing Russia needs to do is to release 30-40 SU-35 to Iran and watch US squirm…US is an illegal occupation force that must be resisted…)
Exactly right!
We saw this during cold war. Interestingly, youd biggo USSRo bleeded out. :DDDD
That is right! It is like a chess game and you have to look several moves ahead of your opponent’s. Russia is very good at that.
Reminds me of the NATO ‘Anacondra’ Exercise, on Russia’s borders. Only, NATO should have called it ‘Operation Slow Worm’, as Russia has the experise, with regards constriction warfare. Depriving the organs of essential supplies.
24 countries providing 31,000 men with their equipment polluting the landscape around western Russia, is a pathetic display of a constrictor mentality.
Russia fear economic sanction ..not US military power…..Russia could deploy S-400 in Deir Ezzor or Palmyra to keep away USAF…and US are not going to attack Russia knowing that small contingent of US troops are deployed near Russia in Baltic and Romania( antimissile shield) being an easy target for Russian forces!
Agree. Russia can not remain passive after the Deir Azzor treachery. It must show clear signs and airlift SAMS and MANPADS to Palmyra and the eastern Euphrates valley. US occupation forces are land locked and it is a very expensive operation. The Syrians must declare their airspace a NO FLY ZONE for all hostile aircraft and shoot down any intruders. US is basically cowardly and casualty averse. An average American redneck has joined the military as a meal ticket and will not not want to die in the deserts of Syria. Increase the cost of occupation and they will cut an run as history has shown from Vietnam to Iraq.
Agree. SAM system deployed in Deir Ezzor turn in Risk for US pilots that can be shot down and be capture for Tribal fighters or even ISIS cell!
(…Russia can not remain passive after the Deir Azzor treachery. It must show clear signs and airlift SAMS and MANPADS to Palmyra and the eastern Euphrates valley. US occupation forces are land locked and it is a very expensive operation. The Syrians must declare their airspace a NO FLY ZONE for all hostile aircraft and shoot down any intruders. US is basically cowardly and casualty averse. An average American redneck has joined the military as a meal ticket and will not want to die in the deserts of Syria. Increase the cost of occupation and they will cut an run as history has shown from Vietnam to Iraq. Just activating the radars and getting a SAM lock will deter the US cowards…)
True, true indeed!
(…Let’s hope so, Russia needs to draw a line in Syria or the emboldened Zio/Anglo axis of evil will be further emboldened and destroy Russia itself. They are most scared of Russia arming Iran and Hezbollah and it should. Why is Russia selling lethal weapons to its sworn enemies in Turkeys and Saudi headchoppers? This is not a time to praise “partners” who are gleefully killing Russians in Syria. Why did the Russian forces in Deir Azzor not have air cover or SAM umbrella?…)
Very, very important questions indeed!
Why should modernize S-200? It is old model, no one country buys. Maybe Syria, But Syria has the same amount of lounchers as Russia. If russia dont want more S200, sure will not modernize.
cos is enought fo hit f16 . f35…. and russia still have tousend in storage.
They’re (s200 verba) old and easily evaded (6g turns?), but they have better range than most of the s300s that replaced them in RF. The Iranians have a replacement missile called the sayyad3 that can be launched from verba launchers. These supposedly have IR seekers and can do 8g turns, although they sacrifice range and speed to achieve said improvements. Any move against the Americans will trigger mischief from Israhell, Lieberman has already referenced “2 front wars” in his weekly tirades, so they’ll have to be ready for such nonsense. Iran, Syria, and Russia will have to coordinate their actions and responses to various counter actions with great care. I wish Syria had more iskanders.
In Syria you have to do with what you have, Syria does not have money to buy expensive systems, they can upgrade the S200 and make it a viable weapon; the airframe and the warheads are in good shape, the guidance and radar control systems can be upgraded and can present a challenge to generation 4 fighters.
Look, Russia has only 2 batallions of S-200. That means, it has only museal role. Like t-62s in russian army. Therefore they will not invest money. Other countries may not make changes. For Russia export article is S-3(4)00. Fo low cost buyers offers Buk, Pantsir, etc. I am only realistic. No country will invest in the development of weapon, which has low market.
I do not follow what you are getting at, the Russians and the Iranians are upgrading the S200 for Syrians to make use of what they have.
My infos from Russia tell something else. Maybe Iran makes black versions. But russia … really no logic in this step.
(…Russia along with Iran should modernize the S200 missiles, what other air to surface missile carries a 250 kgs warhead? Also providing latest MANPADS, Pantsair, Tor systems along with BUK-M2, would stiffen up the air defenses. When SAA and Hezbollah and allies will cross Euphrates to challenge the Kurds, US Air Force will be challenged and attacked….)
Exactly right! For now, that is most-urgently needed counter-measure against the evil empire’s arial attacks on the SAA and allied militia.
S200s are modernised already. The Israeli blunder is significant because they use the same equipment as the Americans. That means that American planes are no safer than the Israeli ones over Syria. The Pentagon is trying to suck that one at the moment. Already Pantsir system is making the air environment over Syria completely unpredictable for the Empire. That’s got to be good!
They have several hundred launchers of S200 with maybe over 1000 missiles, modernizing a weapon can be continuous since the other side will try to figure out some countermeasures to blunt the effectiveness of the weapon. S 200 are brute weapons, getting them in the proximity of the enemy aircraft, using their very large warhead will cause many kills.
Mobile point defense weapons ( Pantsair and Tor) would make life difficult for the empire aircraft and their standoff weapons.
From an appeasement plea last week to a fifty-fifty bag this week. Wars have never been won by weak Commanders, blundering Generals, half-@$$€d attempts or indecisive bugles. All appeasement does is sap morale on one side, boost it on the other, prolong conflicts and increase mortalities.
Too bad that su-25 model didn’t had anti-infrared man pad device installed like the newer models and helicopters, if it did it wouldn’t be downed.
that was a pilot error..he doesnt drop flares to prevent manpads
Probably had malfunction. Pilots are not nuts.
With that system you don’t need to flare, it sends interferenced on auto when infra red beam is detected
Whos mistake?! Russian officers sent without backing in the risky operation. Stalin would know, what to do immediately with those officers!
An infrared searching head is a passive device. It doesn´t sent any signal. It searches for the biggest infrared source of the target , normally the engine (turboreactor) . So you have to discover an approaching missile by other means. The only countermeasures are flares.
I read the article with the utmost pleasure. Good job the Sucker, very good.
It’s the Saker. The Sucker is the US taxpayer.
Jeez… , U r damn right … :-)
Yeah. Get the name right next time.
Illegal US bases in Syria need to bombed, especially the runways, so there would be massive issues with supply delivery.
just start a siege on them ground and air…
Recently the illegal U.S. occupation force in north-east Syria attacked a group of Syrian government aligned troops. The incident happened north-east of Deir Ezzor city on the east side of the Euphrates. The “attack on coalition forces” the U.S. claimed as justification for its bombing was a complete lie and in reality never happened. Just one more US war crime in support of terrorism, against international law and UN mandates.
Heres what actually happened…………….A small area across the Euphrates north-east of Deir Ezzor had been taken by Syrian government forces months ago. It is near some oilfields which the U.S. wants to keep away from the Syrian government. The valuable oil and gas fields are currently in the hands of local Arab tribes who earlier worked with the Islamic State and are now allied with the YPG/PKK Kurds under the name Syrian Democratic Forces. The YPG/PKK is a registered US terrorist organisation which the CIA renamed SDF for obvious reasons. Local deals were made between the Syrian government side and local Arabs holding the oil fields. The U.S. told the SDF to move out of the way. When the government aligned groups started to take over the field the U.S. bombed them.
There is no way you can coordinate B-52 strategic bombers, the flying artillery battery AC-130, as well as MQ-9 drones, F-15 fighters and AH-64 helicopters in a few hours. This was a premeditated attack planned a few days prior. More than likely planned when the US got whispers of a controlled hand over by Local Arabs holding the oil fields.
I now expect Asymmetric response from Russia. US in this action has escalated the rules of engagement in Syria…………………………………….Kill or be killed is now the situation.
The Saker is on the money on increasing Syrian air defense up to a much higher standard , but that should also include Iran , and Lebanon . What was not considered was a vast increase in drone offensive and surveillance capabilities , The Israelis lost one if not two high value jets last week at the cost of one drone . Supposedly it was the Iranian knock off of the US RQ 170 , called the Lighting Bolt . That unit is state of the art stealth design and it can be armed with two or four rockets . If Russia , Syria , Iran , Iraq (via PMU’s only) and possibly Lebanon (via Hezbollah only) all had them in abundance there would be plausible deniability for Russia , but more importantly an inexpensive air force able to counter American ,Turkish and Israeli air forces .
The most important comment here is……..where was the F35?.
Syria has indicated more than 1 jet was shot down and that the defensive batteries were well separated, numerous and very effective. Israel’s options for war were very limited, hence they stood down. Russian EW meant not many missiles hit their targets.
The fact that most missiles didn’t hit their target, as indicated by the evidence on the ground, mean Russian EW was present. Hence this could well have been an asymmetric response for Israel’s support in the downed Russian SU24. Hence Netanyahu’s immediate call to Putin and the following public warning to make sure everyone understands what went down.
Always expect Asymmetric response from Russia. US is escalating the rules of engagement in Syria…………………………………….Kill or be killed is now the situation.
Still on the drafting table .
Syrian missiles got through Israeli jamming somehow at least twice. People have already forgotten that the head of almez antley trolled the US, saying it was perfectly legal to purchase the s400 24 hrs after the f16i shoot down.
at the cost of one drone
PLUS dozens of expensive missiles. Trust me, this is more painful for Syria then for IL. Who is poor, fell more intensive little losses then the rich higher losses.
In the domestic front, as Netanyahu and Trump loose internal support, the temptation for a diversionary war increases: thus the danger. Russia and Syria will continue to be tested, and Russia’s response must be measured to avoid escalation of hostilities.
The US will throw anyone and everyone under the bus if it is what israel demands.
“The US will throw anyone and everyone under the bus if it is what israel demands”
itself included especially.
It does not take a “genius” like the orange moron Trump to realize that Anglo/Zionist agenda is the humiliation and destruction of Russia circa Afghanistan 1980s. If Russia is unable or unwilling to defend itself in Syria, then hand over the SAM systems to SAA and Hezbollah and stop selling weapons to its sworn Wahhabi enemies Turkeys and Saudi headchoppers. It is shame that US killed so many Russians in Syria with impunity.
I hope by now everyone has finally realized that Orange Clown is a “deep cover” or “sleeper” agent that’s been groomed and “waiting in the wings” for his masters’ beck and call (jewish-supremacist madmen). And the call finally came when it was clear that Obama would not be able to deliver what they wanted. And then came deus ex machina, Orange Clown, to take over where Obama left off, and save the agenda of world domination and control. By now it should be clear that Orange Clown’s whole campaign was a calculated fraud from the beginning; a “bait-and-switch” scam. IOW the evil clown had no intention of living up to his campaign rhetoric.
(…The shooting down of the Israeli F-16 is a good first step, but much more needs to be done to dramatically increase the costs the Empire will have to pay for is policies towards Syria. The increase in the number of Russian commentators and analysts demanding a stronger reaction to the current provocations might be a sign that something is in the making…)
Exactly right! Something is indeed in the making. The evil empire will not be shedding the blood of the SAA and its allies with impunity anymore.
Material costs are nothing. Look at Vietnam! How many planes and other equipment lost yanks. This was no problem. Problem was the tens of thousands lives lost.
Losing material means losing lives, and vice versa… unless it’s a pure robot/drone war, dumbf–k.
How does one block velociraptor? He has passed the expiration date of common sense.
I believe that the political ascendancy of Teflon-Don-The-Con-Man (aka Orange Clown) should be taken as a sign of the extreme desperation of his masters; that is, he’s their presidential puppet ruler of last resort. As such I believe the Orange Clown “presidency” portends WW3. Russia needs to deploy the S-500 air defense systems ASAP, IMO.
US criminals and NATO work as hyenas in a howling pack. Russia needs to create strong alliances with Iran which is a determined power and will stay in Syria as it has no choice. The 400 million Shia know that Syria is an existential battle for their survival. Russia needs to arm them and let Iran have the means to defend itself. Russia is in a much stronger position to create a new Tehran Pact much stronger and committed than the defunct Warsaw Pact made up of compromised Anglo/Zionist puppets. Iran is no pushover as history has shown. Arm the Iranians and see the US grovel instantly.
S-500 does not exist. And it will be not against existing threats in Syria.
Your statements make no sense. What do you mean it “does not exist”? And why would you bother to say “it will be not against existing threats in Syria”, if it does not exist in the first place?
It will need to be deployed in Russia for use when the war with the U.S. finally happens.
if a ganchanger weapon isnt murican simply is a fake :D
S500 is still a prototype, and if you deployed it, you would be able to shoot down exactly 2 missiles with it. Come back in 8 years or so.
It is a prototype nearing deployment, just like the PAK FA T-50 or the RS-28 Sarmat. So contrary to his misleading statement, it does “exist”, it just hasn’t been deployed yet. BTW when I said “Russia needs to deploy the S-500 air defense systems ASAP,” I was obviously referring to deployment as a tested and accepted system, not as a “prototype”. I hope that clears things up.
The global bankers'(with “w”) war against Russia never stopped in the first place. After the collapse of communist structure the rape of Russia continued apace with non-military assets. But now Russia is back, very much to the surprise of the globalists, and they can barely hide their distaste and desire to destroy Russia by military means. Only they could not do it without destroying themselves too. That is why Pentagon and the globalists cannot go to war with Russia. Even in Syria they can only use proxy forces because people would not stand going to war with Syria without good reasons – Iraq was the last time and people won’t stand for it any more. Even Iran is unthinkable for conventional western militaries. Nuclear option means they will destroy themselves in the process. It is less then an option. Just a theoretical notion. So, much as they want to continue their assault on Russia they are less and less able to do so. In the future they will say that Syria changed everything. And thank god for that.
The Satanists hate Russia because evil hates a good example. In other words, if it were not for the existence of “good” – which, relatively speaking Russia is, compared to the corrupt, Satanic “West”, there would be no such thing as “bad”. And this is apparently why Cain murdered Abel, for example. But I believe you are wrong in your implication that the Satanists will not destroy themselves and their countries. Firstly, the Bible teaches us that evil, especially “demon possession” type of evil – generally destroys itself – whether it “wants to” or not. The same corruption that brought the Satanists to power in the “West”, will also cause the “West” to destroy itself from within – given enough time. In other words, the Satanists are “riding a tiger”, and they are slipping off. Will they fall off and be mauled to death by the tiger, or will they try to ride the tiger off of a cliff? Basically those are their options.
Russia has playing cards…for example to supply Bastion-P missile( Onyx,Brahmos) to Iran to deploy in Ormuz strait, also SU-30SM,Pantsir S2..etc…and of course deploy SAM system ( Buk, Pantsir,Tor M2)) in Deir Ezzor ..once ISIS have been defeated there!
You still believe Putin?
If Iraq can be persuaded to ask the US to refrain from using Iraqi air space to attack it’s sovereign Syrian neighbor, the US will lose it’s advantage and will have to fly into Syria from across Jordan. Jordan might not like that either. If the US refuses to stop, Iraq can tell the US to get out immediately. If the US refuses, it would be nice to see some Americans taken hostage by Iraqi PMCs until they come to their senses.
This would ignite the anti-war movement in the US, crash the stock market, and would be the fastest way to get the US out of the Middle East. President Trump might even be able to escape from the neocons who currently hold him hostage, since his base will demand he keep his campaign promise to keep out of endless Middle East wars. ..
His “base” doesn’t hold him to anything, they just cheer when he “gets one over” on the evil fake news and jeer at his opponents when anything ridiculous comes tumbling out of his mouth, which is often. They are the most comatose of a highly unawake nation.
How Far Can The Russians Be Pushed?
URAL
Not while their subs are stationed on rotation in the western Atlantic ready to vaporise the U.S., dumbf–k.
:)))))))))))))))))))
When the Russians are behind Ural, their subs are dead on the bottom of atlantic.
Two factors that make your statement below questionable, are TRUMP & Erdogan…Neither wants a confrontation right now…Erdogan’s Turkey is busy establishing / annexing, Syria’s “Northern region” into Turkey’s Southern region…AND…Those U.S. Spec4 OPS are busy establishing THEY’RE zone of influence…
Also, Trump is NOT a “HELL-R-eeeite”; not LOOKING to make war…and…Erdogan is NOT READY to make war. ——————————————————————————————————————————————– “…This might sound counter-intuitive, but let’s say the Turks did attack a Kurdish (or “good terrorist”) column/position with US personnel and that US servicemen would die as the result. What would/could the US do?…”. ——————————————————————————————————————————————– Otherwise, I thend to agree with your perspective…BTW…I’m fairly certain that ONLY blind, deaf mutes think Turkey is REALLY a NATO country, in ANY SERIOUS sense…I WAS going to say something about NATO, but won’t…I’m honestly to ignorant to be sure WHAT NATO’s leadership is actually thinking right now….But I can’t imagine NATO being too AWFULLY happy with Erdogan’s attempt to intimidate a EU Election… —————————————————————————————————————————————– “…One should never say never, but I submit that it would take something of a miracle at this point to really salvage the US-Turkish relationship. Russia can try to capitalize on this dynamic…”. —————————————————————————————————————————————- I agree, especially since Putin has been as restrained as he’s been…puts the US in a awkward position….which he’ll capitalize on when it’s productive… —————————————————————————————————————————————- “…The main weakness of this entire concept is, of course, {#1} that the USA is still powerful enough, including inside Turkey, and it would be very dangerous for Erdogan to try to openly confront and defy Uncle Sam. So far, {#2} Erdogan has been acting boldly and in overt defiance of the USA, but he also understands the risks of going too far and for him to even consider taking such risks there have to be prospects of major benefits from him. {#3} Here the Russians have two basic options: either to promise the Turks something very inciting or to somehow further deteriorate the current relationship between the US and Turkey. {#4} The good news here is that Russian efforts to drive a wedge between the US and Turkey are be greatly assisted by the US support for Israel, Kurds, and Gulenists….” —————————————————————————————————————————————- I AGREE on ALL 4 points! Which leave us with the need to be patient & WAIT’N WATCH…DEFINITELY one wrong step by EITHER Trump OR Erdogan can…and VERY LIKELY WILL…tip the scale…BUT! The REAL QUESTION is: “JUST HOW serious is Erdogan’s desire for his Caliphate…AND…Is he patient enough to WAIT? ————————————————————————————————————————————— “…So far, the Iraqis have quickly dealt with the US-sponsored “mini-Kurdistan” in Iraq and the Turks are now taking the necessary steps to deal with the US-sponsored “mini-Kurdistan” in Syria at which point *their* problem will be solved. The Turks are not interested in helping Assad or, for that matter, Putin and they don’t care what happens to Syria as long as *their* Kurdish problem is under control. This means that the Syrians, Russians, and Iranians should not place too much hope on the Turks turning against the USA unless, of course, the correct circumstances are created. Only the future will tell whether the Russians and the Iranians will be able to help to create such circumstances…” ————————————————————————————————————————————— I READILY admit you’re superior understanding of this Regional Conflict; but I wonder…
As you say: “The Turks are not interested in helping Assad or, for that matter, Putin and they don’t care what happens to Syria as long as *their* Kurdish problem is under control…”;
Therefore, it SEEMS to me that the Turks’, {Erdogan’s}, MAIN interest IS gaining and holding a considerable portion of Northern & Eastern Syria, for BOTH “influence”, AND! For future control, enabling Erdogan to BEGIN to expand his borders….in immediate hopes of establishing a LARGER TURKEY for ULTIMATELY creating a Caliphate…Does that seem viable to you? OR, will Iran, (coupled with Russia), be too much of a challenge? I’m somewhat Historically “brainstorming” here…what do YOU think???
—————————————————————————————————————————————– Instead of “copy/pasting” the ENTIRE LONG paragraph, I’ll just respond to your commentary: While the Pantsr-S1 & Verba MANPADS are DEFINITELY a serious “field of combat” impact factor, I’m thinking that you MIGHT be overestimating they’re effectiveness, at LEAST after a bit…[U S tends to quickly adjust], AND, that seems something you’re underestimating…Maybe???
Again, I’m not HIGHLY KNOWLEDGEABLE, so I’m pretty much guessing here, but I DO KNOW that Iraq AND Afghanistan have TAUGHT the U S lessons about such weapons’ capabilities….SOOOoooo they MAY ALREADY be working on…OR…already HAVE, effective counter measures…OR…they’ll QUICKLY adapt…But, nonetheless, I agree that the Pantsr- S1 & Verba Manpad WILL make a drastic difference…GOOD POINT Saker!!…O.K., you already answered my question…(just reading your next two paragraphs)…AND…I agree with your “the U S giving Manpads to the “good Kurds”, won’t ultimately do much for the U S air activities…But Russia’s ground activities won’t be bothered…as for the Israelis complaining…I just don’t care…they’re big boys…can care for themselves…(SERIOUSLY…my mind is that NEITHER the U S OR Israel should be there! MOST of my reasoning for reading your posts & now commenting is to learn…You’re a good teacher…
In reference to your list…I’m rather disappointed that TRUMP is getting THAT involved…Syria isn’t a worthy target…NOR an enemy worthy of such activities…Asad has made it CLEAR that reconstruction will be HIS MAJOR effort once this “WAR” is done…(OBVIOUSLY THAT hope is being destroyed by U S, Israel, & Turkey — and I’m CERTAIN that ASAD won’t forget that! SOOOooooo, U S & Israel, get out!! & Deal with Hezbollah & Iran…not SYRIA!!!
Thanks Saker!! I’m learning…and WHAT I’m learning isn’t NECESSARILY making me happy with my Country’s leadership for the LAST 50+ years!!! BUT! I’m hopping “We the People…”; are ALSO LEARNING & will remember EACH TIME we VOTE!!!
That Syria has told Israel to “expect more surprises” suggests step 2 has already begun, irrespective of the outcome of the first step. There have also been reports quoting IDF sources that Netanyahu was so pissed at losing an F-16 that he wanted to greatly expand IAF targeting of Syria in response, but that Putin warned him in no uncertain terms not to. Otherwise, a good analysis from The Saker.
“US and/or Israeli airstrikes would gradually shit” – Epic quote! Can’t wait!!! =D
Saw that too; “US and/or Israeli airstrikes would gradually shit”, the missing “f”, uck