Situation in Avdeyevka, February 2, 2017 (Escalation In Eastern Ukraine)

Original by Yuriy “yurasumy” Podolyaka published at Naspravdi; translation from Russian by J.Hawk

On February 1, combat operations in Avdeyevka’s vicinity have continued with previous intensity. Neither side undertook active offensive operations, but that was more than made up for by the stepped up artillery bombardments which became more intense and targeted more territory. One also notes an intense process of concentrating forces by both sides which, judging by the situation, are ready to undertake far more intense operations once given an order…

The humanitarian situation in Avdeyevka

In spite of the short-term ceasefire and efforts to restore electricity to the city, the humanitarian situation is continuing to deteriorate. There is no light, heat is almost gone (fortunately the coke plant is still supplying heat in some form, but very irregularly). The population, mainly women and children, is gradually leaving the city on their own initiative (general evacuation has not been announced).

Avdeyevka industrial zone

After the active NAF offensive operations two days ago which restored positions lost earlier, no attacks were launched on February 1, only a NAF attempt to test enemy defenses which ended inconclusively. High intensity artillery fire (with a break during the “ceasefire”) has continued the entire day, evening, and night.

Preparations for a high-intensity operation

In the meanwhile, there is an ongoing process of concentrating forces by both sides in the sector between Peski and Gorlovka. For obvious reasons, I will not note NAF dispositions. The UAF, in addition to the complete concentration of the 72nd Brigade in the Avdeyevka area, has brought up additional forces from the 79th Airmobile Brigade and the 80th Air Assault Brigade (the operational reserves), and also moved up to the front lines the GHQ reserves in the form of the 25th Airborne Brigade.

Should the NAF receive an order to take Avdeyevka, and as of right now this can no longer be ruled out, the attack will probably will not be head-on. Advancing through several kilometers of urban terrain while breaking through enemy defenses is both stupid and ineffective. But a swift enveloping strike by superior forces aimed at the UAF left flank through Kamenka and Krasnogorovka toward the coke plant would almost immediately place the UAF Avdeyevka grouping (the 72nd Brigade) in a very difficult situation. It would be more difficult to supply it, and a second strike through Opytnoye and Vodyanoye could form an encirclement around Avdeyevka.