The city of Raqqah is considered one of the most important Syrian cities. The city is located on the northeast bank of the Euphrates River, at the edge of “Sharqiya Syria”, a term used to describe eastern Syria.
Syria’s largest dam, the Tabqah Dam is located 40 kilometers west of Raqqah. The dam is one of the most important electricity and water sources in Syria.
Click to see the full-size map
It was built between 1968 and 1973 to generate the hydroelectric power, as well as irrigate lands on both sides of the Euphrates. Syria’s largest water reservoir, the Lake Assad, is located west of the dam. The town of Tabqah and the nearby Tabqah Miitary Airport are located directly south of the dam.
A look at the Tabqa dam on March 26, 2017. Source: @CJTFOIR/Twitter
A look at the Tabqa dam on March 26, 2017. Source: @CJTFOIR/Twitter
Raqqah is linked with the Syrian industrial capital of Aleppo, the oil-rich province of Deir Ezzor, and the fertile area Hasakah through the M4 Highway. The city’s inhabitants number 220,000 [predominantly Arabs of Sunni Islam; there is also a notable Christian minority], according to the 2004 census. The Raqqah countryside is home to about 100,000 people, most of whom are Bedouins.
Raqqah. Scale: 500m
The strategic importance of the city as well as the nearby Tabqah dam turned Raqqah into a target for every faction involved in the war and all of them have attempted to take control of it.
At the beginning of the Syrian crisis, Raqqah was one of the calmest provinces, as it did not witness any significant protests or violence. Sporadic protests by opposition groups did not exceed a hundred protestors at their peak.
Thus, Raqqah and its capital became one of the safest provinces accepting scores of loyalist refugees displaced from the Aleppo, Hasakah, and Deir Ezzor where fierce clashes between pro-government forces and militants took place in 2012.
At the end of 2012, Ahrar Al-Sham with the support of Jabhat al-Nusra (the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda; Now it’s known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham) declared its intention to capture the provincial capital of Raqqah and launched a military operation to do this. Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra captured the Jirah Airbase and the important town of Maskanah in the province of Aleppo, and entered into the province of Raqqah. Militants captured Tabqah and the Tabqah Military Airport and captured the city of Raqqah after 3 days of clashes on March 6, 2013.
The Syrian Army did not organize any real defenses for the city. This led to many questioning the loyalties of the provincial leadership, which seemingly played an integral role in the loss of this strategic province.
Initially, ISIS activities inside the city were aimed at supporting Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra in actions against the besieged Syrian Army military installations in its vicinity. However, later ISIS began own operation in order to recapture Raqqah from Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra. ISIS declared a control over Raqqah in January 2014. A majority of Ahrar al-Sham and Jabhat al-Nusra militants fled, abandoning the entire city to ISIS. Those who remained either defected to ISIS or were executed. ISIS terrorists continued their attacks against Syrian military facilities capturing the Division 17 HQ, the Brigade 93 base, and the Tabqah Military Airport after months of relentless clashes carrying out massacres against the soldiers manning these sites.
Tabqah Military Airport. Scale: 500m
While many believe that Mosul is the capital of ISIS, ISIS recognizes Raqqah as its official capital. In the past three years, ISIS was systematically strengthening its presence and influence in Raqqah as it did not face any real danger from other forces involved in the war.
In 2016, following the first liberation of Palmyra, the Syrian Army, backed up by the Russian Aerospace Forces, launched an advance with the goal of recapturing the Tabqah Military Airport and even the city of Raqqah from ISIS. However, government forces did not reach even their first goal and were pushed to retreat after a series of ISIS counter attacks.
The start of the Russian military operation in Syria in 2015 dramatically changed the course of the war and returned an ability to conduct successful operations to the Assad government. The government advance on the Tabqah Military Airport resulted in no gains. Nonetheless, it became clear that if the US-led coalition against ISIS continues ignoring the terrorist group in Syria, the Syrian government and its allies would be able to solve this problem by themselves. [Just for example, in the same year, the Syrian army liberated the city of Aleppo from Jabhat al-Nusra and its allies. This was one of the biggest government victories in this war.] This could become a major diplomatic and PR failure for the US and its regional allies.
In October 2015, the new brand of the US-backed forces appeared in the war. The establishment of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) was declared during a press conference in Hasakah, a town controlled by the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military wing the People’s Protection Units (YPG). While the US and the mainstream media claimed that, the SDF was multi-ethnic organization, the YPG and the YPJ, the female equivalent of the YPG, became the core of the group. Understanding this problem, the US-led coalition contributed significant efforts in 2016 and in early 2017 to build an Arab faction in the SDF. However, the Kurdish militias remained the undisputed core of the SDF.
YPG fighters
On November 6, 2016, the SDF, backed up by the US-led coalition’s air power and special forces, launched the Operation Euphrates Wrath aimed at expelling ISIS from the province of Raqqah.
U.S. special operations forces are seen in the northern Syrian province of Raqqah on May 25, 2016. Delil Souleiman, AFP
Now, the SDF officially includes:
- 36,000 YPG fighters
- 24,000 YPJ fighters
- 20,000 Arab tribal fighters including groups like the Manbij Military Council
Fighters of the Manbij Military Council
Between 10,000 and 20,000 members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) present in the SDF-held area in northern Syria and unofficially participate in SDF military operations. Official representatives of the PYD and the YPG have repeatedly denied this fact because it could negatively impact the US-Turkish relations. An official recognition of this fact will also create a pretext for Ankra to launch a military operation against the SDF. Turkey and a number of other nations describe the PKK as a terrorist group. The Turkish leadership insists that the YPG is just a branch of the PKK.
However, this does not stop Ankara from conducting military strikes on YPG targets along the Turkish-Syrian border. The United States have been pushed to increase its military activity along the border and at a contanct line between the SDF and pro-Turkish mlintants in the province of Aleppo to prevent a possible ful-scale Turkish military operations against the SDF/YPG in northern Syria. Thus, US troops play a role of buffer force between Turkey and the SDF.
A March 5 photo shows a convoy of U.S. forces armoured vehicles driving near the village of Yalanli, on the western outskirts of the northern Syrian city of Manbij. Footage was posted Friday by Syrian activists online showed U.S. armoured vehicles driving on a rural road a few hundred meters from the Turkish border. (DELIL SOULEIMAN / AFP/GETTY IMAGES)
The SDF advance in the Raqqah countryside is ongoing amid an immense fire support from the US Coalition’s warplanes, attack helicopters and artillery. The US also expanded few airfields inside Syria. They are used for delivering supplies to the SDF and as forward bases for US attack helicopters. The US, French and Germany special operations forces also play an important role in supporting the SDF on the ground. The US Marine Corps provides an artillery support for SDF operations around Raqqah.
So far, the SDF has been able to outflank Raqqah from the western, eastern and northern directions, to cross the Euphrates and to capture the Tabqah Military Airport, to capture a major part of the town of Tabqah [May 2, 2016: pro-Kurdish sources announced that the town is liberated] and to set a foothold for securing the Tabqah Dam and isolating the ISIS self-proclaimed capital from the southern direction.
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A SDF member is removing an ISIS flag from the center of Tabqah
From its side, ISIS began preparing for the Battle of Raqqah since the Coalition’s announcement of the Raqqah operation in 2016.
Since the beginning, it became clear that ISIS was not intending to defend numerous villages in the Raqqah countryside. In turn, ISIS implemented a mobile defense approach. ISIS units were retreating under the pressure of the SDF and the US-led coalition from small villages and were counter-attacking relying on technicals and vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs).
The goal of this strategy was (and is) to deliver a maximum possible damage to the SDF manpower and military equipment instead of attempting to defend small settlements without any strategic value. Tabqah, the Tabqah Military Airbase and the Tabqah dam were the only locations that ISIS had attempted to defend because of their strategic value – controlling these sites, US-backed forces will have a foothold on the southern bank of the Euphrates west of Tabqah.
An ISIS technical is in action against the SDF in the province of Raqqah
Inside and around Raqqah, ISIS started setting up a series of fortifications around the city at the end of 2016 by constructing a high berm and a trench that encircles the city in its entirety. Several local sources also reported that the terrorist group had worked on establishing an intricate series of tunnels, trenches, and cement barriers inside Raqqah.
Furthermore, opposition sources reported that ISIS began lacing explosives and planting IEDs in sensitive areas inside and around the city.
At the turn of 2017 following the success of US-backed forces in Raqqah’s western and eastern countryside and the cutting off of the Raqqah-Deir Ezzor highway in addition to the Syrian Army’s resilience in Deir Ezzor, ISIS began relocating its equipment and ammunition to the insides of the city as well as establishing firing points and sniper nests.
The terrorist group has been also relocating its most experienced fighters to the city. A notable number of elite fighters have been called from Deir Ezzor, Aleppo’s eastern countryside and the Homs desert. Some of them even arrived from Iraq.
In Raqqah ISIS reported has over 10,000 fighters and its most effective armament including TOW and Fagot missiles smuggled from Idlib given to them by FSA factions in Aleppo and Deir Ezzor. ISIS also has stocked weapons like RPG-29 and OSA M-79 for the Battle of Raqqah. Dozens of tanks and armored vehicles have been deployed inside the city. The group is actively manufacturing various kinds of VBIEDs using their stock of explosives.
A military planning, a motivated infantry and a sophisticated usage of VBIEDs are the key strong sides of ISIS forces.
The current goal of the US-led forces is to seize control of the Raqqah countryside putting an additional pressure on the terrorist group from the northern and western direction. It’s expected that the US-led coalition and its allies on the ground will attempt to repeat the Mosul-like operation. However, there is a difference: US-backed forces could leave an escape route for ISIS members south of Raqqah. This could allow to ease the resistance of ISIS members inside the city. Meanwhile, if this is done, many terrorist group members will be able to remain alive and free in Syria. Some of them could then move to Europe as refugees.
The storm Raqqah will include a heavy bombing campaign by the US-led coalition air force with warplanes, attack helicopters and drones, as well as Marine artillery. The United States will expand their military presence on frontlines against ISIS and deploy more troops and military equipment. Like in Mosul, Washington and the mainstream media will likely deny that US troops are directly engaged in a battle against ISIS in Raqqah. However, without an active US military support, the SDF will be hardly able to retake Raqqah from ISIS in a realistic time.
This March 7, 2017 frame grab from video provided by Arab 24 network, shows U.S. forces patrol on the outskirts of the Syrian town, Manbij, in al-Asaliyah village, Aleppo province, Syria. (Arab 24 network, via AP)
ISIS will also use the Mosul exprieience, using well-equipped small groups of fihters, deploying huge numbers of experienced snipers on all streets of the city, and of course the heavy use of VBIED and suicide bombers to attack any gathering of SDF, and to deploy mines and IEDs on all roads.
One of the biggest problems that the SDF will face is a high number of civilians in the city. According to local sources, there are over 250,000 people, including refugees from Deir Ezzor and Iraq, and families of ISIS terrorists in Raqqah.
In general, the battle is expected to last months, and unfortunately, as in Mosul, large numbers of civilians will be killed due to a fighting and the coalition’s bombing campaign. US military officials argue that US-backed forces will start storming Raqqah this summer. Nonetheless, it’s complicated to forecast when the city is retaken from terrorists. Iraqi forces launched their final push towards the ISIS stronghold of Mosul on October 16, 2016 and the city has not been liberated completely so far.
Click to see the full-size map
Tensions between the PYD/YPG and the Turkish government is another factor that impacts and slows down the SDF advance on Raqqah.
Meanwhile, the Kurdish-dominated SDF has announced that the liberated city will be included in the the Federation of Northern Syria–Rojava, the YPG/SDF-held area of northern Syria.
This raises a lot of concern in the Syrian government and many pro-government activists question the loyalty of the administration that will rule the city and the people’s desire to join Kurdish federalism, especially after much talk about the racist practices of the Kurdish federal administration in Hasakah and Qamishli against the Arabs. Some speculations even say that if SDF succeeded in controlling the city, it may fail in managing it. However, it is too early to make such far-reaching conclusions.
The liberation of Raqqah is an important part of the broader effort aimed at expelling ISIS terrorists from Syria and Iraq. All sides share this point.
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Be a good idea to check the geography of Raqqa compared to Tabqa Dam, it is located WEST not EAST of Raqqa. Understandable why the US wants to possess that portion of Syria and why Turkey won’t allow the Kurds to inhabit that region. They all seem to forget, conveniently that it all belongs to Syria and her people. Hope Russia knows what she is doing, so far her tactics are a mystery.
Syrian kurds are Syrians too. If they are not, then there is no reason not to grant them independence.
If they are, then there is no reason for them not te be able to participate in liberating Raqqah.
Territory belongs to those that can defend it. The SAA has no right to rule people that it abandoned wholesale, people they left to the depravity of ISIS. The north belongs to the Kurds.
The whole middle east and most of Africa belongs to the abortion rights defending Kurds as well, as does Kabul.
Your logic is flawed, its obvious your pushing and agenda here, we are on to you! Thé territory belongs to thé syrian arab Republic and no one else, kurds are part of thé syrian secular State. Deal with it
“Thé territory belongs to thé syrian arab Republic” Kurds are not Arabs, deal with it.
Ok so by this logic anyone that isnt arab should get out of Syria?? Thats not thé concept of Syria, all minorities are accepted There, sunni, Shia, druze, Christians, kurds, ect…
We should all Stop putting labels on everybody, we are all human, were all thé same, im pretty sure Everybody’s crap is Brown most of the Time. This obsession we have with having to put everything in a “box” with à plain label with ne our downfall, gay this, french that, Russian this , arab that. Black this, White that.
Its all à human construct to divide us and stop us from attainimg Higher consciousness.
I hope you understand my post. Also thank you for the reply.
silesien back to germany
Yes very much so its really frustrating. Its like they’re trying to play both sides or something, but what good will that do?
New Itriayh offensive must be priority bcs Raqqa must be surrounded
A good article with more depth then usual here.
We will have to see the developments the coming months.
Negative for the SDF, compared to Mosul, is their lack of heavy weapons. Maybe their number compared to Iraqi army and police.
Plus for SDF is they have much better morale then the Iraqi army and police, are fiercer fighters, have more experience in inner city combat fighting, have a unified command structure and the city is much smaller.
Wait and see.
Thank you for your feedback. As to the depth more than usual, you can check these: https://southfront.org/the-stronghold-of-deir-ezzor-all-what-you-need-to-know-about-the-battle-against-isis-in-eastern-syria/ https://southfront.org/stronghold-al-bab-whoever-controls-northern-syria-influences-the-entire-middle-east/ https://southfront.org/the-stronghold-of-mosul/ https://southfront.org/why-the-battle-for-aleppo-is-so-long-and-so-important/ https://southfront.org/north-korea-vs-south-korea-comparison-of-military-capabilities-what-would-new-war-in-korea-look-like/ https://southfront.org/forecasting-escalation-scenario-of-conflict-in-syria/ https://southfront.org/us-navys-newest-amphibious-assault-ship-dead-end-breakthrough/ https://southfront.org/u-s-cries-foul-as-russia-tests-9m729-cruise-missile-but-who-violated-the-inf-treaty-first/ … If you want to read only analytical texts, please, look for articles in these sections: https://southfront.org/category/all-articles/products/military-analysis/ https://southfront.org/category/all-articles/products/political-analysis/ https://southfront.org/category/all-articles/products/foreign-policy-diary/
Thank you.
I had seen some of them and read a few of the ones I did not see before.
Keep up the good work.
Kurds a force to be reckoned with??? Propaganda
They are limited only by their numbers and perhaps their southbound territorial ambition. They are getting all the equipment and training they could possibly use.
It seems either you do not think or you do not read.
It is clear that both in Iraq and Syria the kurds, either directly of within a coalition, play a crucial role in the areas where they are active, ie KRG and neighbouring areas and Northern Syria.
They claim and have no role far outside their territories.
And you know it true cause USA told you so and assessment your assessment of quote quote open source data has concluded the American BS
You include this site in the label “American BS”?
Not nice of you.
US can give them all the heavy weapons they want or use them ourselves, especially since heavy weapons are harder to smuggle to Turkey than small arms.
Inside and around Raqqah, ISIS started setting up a series of fortifications around the city at the end of 2016 by constructing a high berm and a trench that encircles the city in its entirety. Several local sources also reported that the terrorist group had worked on establishing an intricate series of tunnels, trenches, and cement barriers inside Raqqah.
Exactly why I expect the U.S. to blow the Tabqa/Euphrates dam and blame it on ISIS. Raqqa isn’t more that a few meters above the Euphrates. By either opening all the flood gates or blowing the dam, the water rises causing civilians to flee in a panic (whether ISIS is shooting them in the back or not). It also causes the head-choppers to flee, making all their tunnels and other fortifications useless – they’ll all be flooded. The head-choppers won’t be able to use their VBIEDs – the US already took out nearly every bridge across the al Rei irrigation channel and flooded it. The SDF can control all vehicles trying to leave to the north or east. Any Raqqa head-choppers still holed up in the taller structures or attempting to move around by boat will easily be picked off by the Coalition of Evil Cronies.
I hope I’m wrong but in that case, the US just does a Falluja – slowly level Raqqa with artillery and kill everyone left inside. Take a look at Gen. Joe “Dr. Death” Votel. Does he look like a guy that wouldn’t smoke a few civilians to get the job done? https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/30b12d253aec91db63b1c0cb096071909b12be3ef7f86eda75613467b0caf84e.jpg
It’s also going to be hard to tell which is Pro ISIS civilians and what are not and could possibility face viet cong like symptoms.
I agree with your assessment, except that they would never blame it on their ISIS friends. Israel would launch a stealth missile again and blame it on the SAA. Just like when Israel launched that chemical weapon into Syria, and then blamed it on the SAA. Then the US attacked Syria. This time Israel will hit the damn, and blame it on Damascus again. http://ihr.org/
Let’s get real here. The dam is a thick concrete structure. Hitting it with a large missile would cause minor cosmetic damage.
Agreed, it would bé Much easier to breach the rock and dirt part of thé Dam(wich is like 98% of it, that number is à guess compared to other Dam projects i worked on in thé past), because once that goes it just Gets bigger and bigger and bigger, and would conviently wash away any munitions used in thé process.
The Oroville dam damage was big news. It had never spilled over before. 180,000 people downstream where evacuated.
https://www.google.com/search?q=dam+overflow+oroville&rlz=1C1CHMO_enUS679US679&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwiKpPq07tPTAhWISyYKHX2iBYQQ_AUICygC&biw=1920&bih=950#imgrc=_
Good idea, but how high is Dier Ezzor?
Every village along the Euphrates is right on the flood plain or a few feet above it – they would *all* get inundated to some degree. The people would have some advance notice downstream. I think they estimated ten hours for flood waters to reach Deir EzZor. Depends how much water for how long. If the plan was to flood Raqqa by opening the gates for a day or two, then they might not have much flooding as far down as Deir EzZor, and certainly nothing like catastrophic flooding by a wall of water.
If one side or the other actually blew/breached the dam, then that would be a different matter entirely. Raqqa wouldn’t have enough time to evacuate, but word would reach everyone else downstream. Deir EzZor would have plenty of time (hours) to evacuate if they knew the dam was destroyed. The thought that ISIS wouldn’t do this because of Deir EzZor is flawed thinking. They have been trying to force the SAA out of there for a long time. Not sure how much of the air base would be flooded, but the graves area and all the contested land (and bunkers and tunnels) now held by the SAA would be flooded. ISIS (if they knew ahead of time) could use a scheme like this to take over their last ‘capital’ of Deir EzZor from the SAA once and for all. The town would be a mess, but not destroyed. ISIS is running out of options – they know Raqqa is lost.
Two birds one Stone eh….what à mess
Usually your assessments are spot on, but I Will correct you here. 98% of Tabqa damn is made of Earth and rock, thé only concrète part is thé spillway, and trust me its thick, ive been lucky enough to work on a few spillways myself, good money for a concrete supplier like me.
From à military point of view, it makes sense to flood Raqqah, as you clearly explained to us, although this action would be a crime of thé highest magnitude, espicially since turkey allegedly choked the River on their Side. Essentially it would bé à death sentence for the whole Valley. Let’s hope cooler heads prevail here.
Thanks for your insights, youre on of m’y favorite commenters on this site
The hydro plant (turbine hall) runs inside the dam under the spillways, Mike. The head-choppers have no problem gathering several-hundred pounds of explosives to make truck bombs. Quantities like that inside the turbine hall are bound to make something crack in a bad way. Despite that – and to your point – this is a Soviet-designed and built dam. Those guys loved concrete. Lots and lots of concrete. So the thing may be pretty indestructible. I’m thinking of what the US would do to make it look like ISIS ‘did it’. Military engineers wouldn’t be using a home-brew ANFO – they would use something far more energetic and they would know just where to place the explosives.
I suggest the possibility of ‘blowing’ the dam only because it would be a good, believable false-flag – no questions asked and no suspicion on the SDF or coalition. But blowing the entire dam is unnecessary and undesirable if you think about it from purely US/SDF motives. It would be far more useful alternative to make it look like ISIS opened all the gates at once – enough to flood the city for a couple of days – then have the SDF shut them when the dam was ‘liberated’. They only have to flood ISIS tunnels longer than the head-choppers can hold their breath, but not so fast that the civilians couldn’t flee.
As to the human toll, I’m sure in the mind of CENTCOM planners this would save more lives that it would cost. ISIS is pretty-well dug in and has tunnels and booby-traps everywhere. It will be extremely costly for the US/SDF to clear (or level) the whole city building by building, and – like everywhere else – thousands of civilians are going to be caught in the cross-fire no matter what. “Herding’ everyone out of the city with slowly-rising water (instead of a torrent) would solve a lot of problems.
The idea is If the gates were opened one by one, it would take hours for Raqqa to be flooded. The people would panic and start fleeing north and east. The US almost got Raqqa to evacuate out of panic like this the last time they bombed the dam. The only thing missing was the ‘rising water’ part. If I had to guess, I would think US/French SF actually made it inside the hydro plant last time and were planning on doing exactly that, but couldn’t for some reason.
The current operations don’ t make sense. The hydro plant is easily defenseable – I would think the SDF would have taken that first and moved in to Tabqa from the north side as well as the southwest. Seems odd that they’ve not made any attempt to take it yet and have actually herded ISIS up to and inside the dam. Now you have a critical piece of infrastructure with hundreds of head-choppers inside – plus prisoners and an ammo dump – that you have to take (or starve out). This does not seem rational in the least. It’s not the action a military would take if they were worried about the dam and/or flooding. In fact, it seems to be the exact opposite.
Excellent reply thank you sir, I truly appreciate what you bring to thèse conversations.
Your Idea of slowly making thé water rise to cause panic among IS à Good idea, I’m worried about unforseen conséquences. When using nature as a tool, it has à high chance to backfire on you, but the US obviously dont give à crap si from their point of view its genius… Its scared the crap out of me.
What are the chances that the U.S. will drop a MOAB and the U.S. MSM will be orgasmic instead of calling it the world’s largest barrel bomb?
Too late. the time for that was years ago.
By defending abortion rights alone, SDF administration of Raqqa must and will meet unprecedented success, as it will in Dier Ezzor, Damascus, Amman, Mecca, Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, Kabul and Luanda.
I admire your consistency on advocating for abortion rights, its à noble cause, but its also à distraction, à divisive factor. I think youre aware of this and is part of à Strategy divide and conquer type. You should bé more tolérant for other peoples beleifs, even if you dont agree with Them. Otherwise your just as bad as pro lifers.
May Peace be with you
There’s nothing else worth fighting over. Fights between 2 forces that both defend abortion rights (such as in Ukraine, PKK vs Turkey or N. Korea vs US) are incomprehensible. All those weapons turned against each other need to be turned against antiabortion forces liked ISIS, Assad, Iran and now Israel. The currently warring alliances make no sense.