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The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) has deployed more reinforcements in the northwestern region of Greater Idlib, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on August 2.
According to the UK-based monitoring group, the reinforcements were moved from Hama to the frontline at the Zawiya Mount in the southern Idlib countryside. The exact nature of the reinforcements was not revealed.
“As regime forces continue to push reinforcements into the region [Greater Idlib], they are also escalating their rocket strikes, specifically on the southern countryside of Idlib,” the SOHR said in its report.
Recent reports revealed that the SAA and its allies are preparing to launch a new ground operation in southern Greater Idlib.
The operation, which will supposedly start soon, may target the Zawiya Mount. The region oversees the southern Idlib countryside as well as the M4 highway that links Lattakia and Aleppo.
Opposition sources said Greater Idlib group, including Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham and the National Front for Liberation, are preparing to repel any new attack by the SAA.
Turkey maintains a fairly large military presence in southern Idlib. In the last few months, the Turkish military deployed hundreds of troops, battle tanks, howitzers, rocket launchers and even air-defense systems in the region.
Any attack by the SAA will likely lead to a dangerous confrontation with Turkish forces in Greater Idlib. Nevertheless, it could improve security in northwest Syria for the long term.
CIA trolls and hasbarats will cry and rage ;)
Nice undercover hasbara :)
Not really. Im already aware you are in bed with them. Zionazis working with nazis… Shocking….not really. At least for people who know history…
Judeobolseviks like you swith sides very fast, if Putin falls you’ll claim you hated him the most.
Thats what you did? It explains a lot… Ukrops are known backstabbers. One day they are commies, next day nazis, third day hasbarats/soros trolls.
Said the poor version of Soros
You shouldnt listen to Navalny…
ha ha ha ha ! good one bacon !
indeed, Kalamoyski private army actually uses national socialist symbolism. I sill can’t wrap my head around it, other than being again some sick psy-op scheme
In, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1…..
How russia and turkey will manage to not collide into each other this time?
Question: How do you exactly see Turkey attacking Russian army ?! Tell me I am really ignorant on that subject and I don’t see how can they possibly do that and survive? There is no “article 5” if they attack Russia , that is only detail that counts.
I am thinking about escalation military models. 1) Syrian Army attacks. It would be covered by Russian air force like during other Syrian operations 2) Turkish soldiers and terrorists are in the same places so the Syrian Army will likely strike to terrorists and turkish forces 3) erdogan will use turkish casualties to justify a direct intervention against Syrian forces 4) Syrian Army will be attacked by turkish forces 5) What will Russia do after turkish strikes on Syrian forces? Turkish gave the terrorists many ground to air missiles. What will Russia do if one or two russian jets are destroyed by those weapons given by turkey? This escalation is very likely and that’s the problem.
That scenario reminds me on scenario for bad war movie. If Turks want war they’ll create the situation to trigger the war. HTS and all non Turk terrorists are lose canons and they also put any arrangements and agreements between Russia and Turkey
1. If and when SAA attacks they inform their allays Iran, Hezb and Russia. Russia informs Turks about any bombings. Any punitive offensive is announced in advance. Gives certain advantage to terrorist.
2. Russians are professionals and they ALWAYS inform Turkey about their bombings. No mistakes possible.
They even tell them where (the regions, parts of Idlib that will be targeted ).
So Turks have enough time to remove their forces and inform their terrorist friends about bombings. They have plenty of time to evacuate also. Once it’s cleared by Turks the offensive starts ..
It is not perfect but there is no credible alternative to that.
3. if still Turks get killed that only means that they have refused for some reason to leave and are giving direct support to the terrorists .But that is only their problem. Turks are always cheating (assisting terrorists and similar) but they also lose soldiers because of that. They use every opportunity to directly or indirectly attack SAA. When they go over the top Russia sends them few warning bombs and they retreat. There are always few killed on Turk and SAA side as result of the direct involvement I think
Does that mean that Turkey will mass attack SAA positions because of that? Don’t think so. Turks have agreement and they are still cheating Russians. It is despicable, but that’s how it works….difficult.
What you say is exactly what I mean when I say that the next attack by the Syrian army needs to be carefully negotiated by Russia and turkey. I think the next attack would completely liberate the m4 highway. We are not talking about a greater objective that that.
Thats the problem informing the Turks,its insane,either Russia supports Syria in its liberation or they don’t,its that simple.
It is too simple… Russia keeps a frozen conflict on her own border and puts in harms way her own population, yet many people like you ask impossible. That Russia fights Syrian war for Syria. Syria is in lock down and illusion is that nothing changes. Plenty things change globally and majority of those are in Russian, Syrian interest. Global geopolitical position of Russia will improve soon when dollar starts collapsing. Precarious Russian economic situation will also improve and everything from that moment on move in good direction. We are now witnessing 2 opponents Russia and allays vs. NATO with similar power having hold of each other and none wants to let go. But global situation is already making West to fail ! And they will fail completely I have no doubt about that .
Russia is powerful but not all powerful nation. Their position globally and in Syria is conditioned and complicated. Let us wait little bit longer and victory will go to Syria I am sure of that.
“Precarious Russian economic situation will also improve and everything from that moment on move in good direction.”
New government of Mishustin is really great hope for the country. What they did for short term is: new investment programs with money from state fund; interest rate of the Central bank is at historical minimum since 1991, now it’s 4,5% like in China for 10 years before 2018 (now it’s ~3,5% in China); implementing new laws after voting on Constitution amendments. Previous gov-t was known as liberal in economics and not respected by people. Actual gov’t is more conservative and targeted to built state capitalism (in strategic sectors, not touching private property) with significant social care.
Thanks for a details Anton. I am aware of all advantages of those necessary constitutional changes. Russia is going in good direction the only problem is lack of (among other things) the Russian identity that was strongly diluted in 70 years of communism. Since communists were opposing Orthodoxy and Russian sentiment of the Tsarist Russia as barrier to the “revolution” and communist internationalism. And they have continued with that approach during whole existence of USSR. The fact that Georgian dictator Stalin is the most popular historic personality in Russia today is result of very sad state of affairs (at least for me as bystander that is observing situation in Russia)
There was strong opposition – Trozkiy (real name Bronshtein). People respects Stalin, because a) 5-year plans to prepare for the War – the industrialization; b) the Victory. Liberals hate him, the Victory, the USSR, the old Russia and the modern one also. Any. They also hate Ivan IV the Great, because he created empire, conquering parts of ex-Golden Horde. He also tried to reconquer baltic shore – vassals of Novgorod dukedom. Done by Pyotr I the Great. Liberals hate any strong leader.
Of course there were mistakes. Stalin created bunch of new states (so called republics) on russian land. Kazah SSR, for example. Northern Kazahstan is part of ex-Orenburg governorate. Forced ukrainization and belorussization in 1920-s and beginning of 1930’s. It’s period when 80% of police commanders were cosmopolite jews. Non-cosmopolites (as Kaganovich, died in 1991) were in the government even after Trozkiy. Industrialization has started after sending him out of the country.
1932th, Stalin’s speech in the General Staff academy – capitalist countries have walked a long path for 100 years of industrial development, we should run through this path for 10 years or be crushed. 1932+10 = 1942 – plan to create new army. 1 year more and who knows, nazis could be afraid to start war with army, which has 20 thousand T-34 and KV, better planes and other stuff. Full power of authority was taken after Litvinov’s resign (real name Vallah) in 1939. Before the revolution Litvinov lived in London for 10 years. After 1939 he was appointed to embassy in Washington. After ending his terms Litvinov stayed there. It’s strange dictatorship, if your foreign minister is foreign agent.
Unfortunately it’s not “that simple.” There’s this little thing about the arrogant sociopaths, and lunatics having a nuke button. The probability the lunatics will destroy the world before they’ll surrender is extremely high. Unless you’re in favor of this outcome, I suggest Russia’s strategy is the preferred choice. Russia’s Middle East allies seem to agree. Russia is following it’s commitments in providing military assistance to it’s allies to the letter, as minimum. Russia consistently provides assistance far above that. The Middle East is not Russia’s only concern, the entire world, and it’s survival is Russia’s concern. This has been made clear by Russia’s actions throughout it’s participation in the defense of itself, and it’s allies.
Well Turkey thinks it’s still cheating Russians. Must be what Russia wants Turkey to think. Turkey is heavily invested in Libya, and now in Azerbaijan, it’s had to stop antagonizing Greece, move Naval forces to Libya. This has reduced Turkey’s capabilities in Syria to the point of any attack on Syria very much in doubt. Turkey is also attempting to play US Government to it’s advantage. US Government doesn’t back up Turkey’s actions in Syria, meaning NATO isn’t going to either. I think your whole “Russia is advised” narrative is a figment of your hallucination. Russia may be advised when it suits Turkey to do so. Turkey needs Russia to survive. Russia doesn’t need Turkey. Turkey is in Syria to support US Government interests. US Government interests serve the the interests of The City of London. Same as Turkey. Erdogan is a rabid Globalist, and supporter of their world de-population agenda, Russia is not. US Government is being destroyed from the inside by The City of London. Russia, having contained US threats, need only watch US Government destruct itself. What military will replace US military to protect The City of London’s interests, and invade countries to steal their resources ? It was thought to be China, but that appears to be very much in currently.
“Must be what Russia wants Turkey to think.”
Good point! I had the same intuition. There is lot happening in that kind of play that doesn’t meet the eye. The biggest Turk problem is being over ambitious. They are over extending. Playing their game in too many different places and exposing themselves to a big challenge for which they are not ready (we agree there also). Their terrorist are now from Syria to Libya to Azerbaijan and their strngth in Syria might not be what it used to be. The conflict without shadow of a doubt is growing into the regional conflict and it could grow even bigger if things get out of the control …
US (NATO)are not on the same page yet still thy are waiting to see how far Turkey will go against US interests and if the Russia-Turkey-Iran agreement will survive all the test of the time and reach their objectives (slow and painful process with not many results)
I do not agree that NATO (US) would not “back up” Turkey.
I think that being opportunists US would analyze any given situation and judge accordingly weather to intervene or not and to what extent(in the best interest of US only of course)
As for the France,Germany, they would support some kind of NATO action only in the case on one sided direct aggression of Russia on Turk army which will never happen.
“Turkey needs Russia to survive. Russia doesn’t need Turkey.”
We differ here also. I think that Russia still needs Turkey for obvious reasons (their cooperation in Syria, contacts over Armenia-Azerbaijan and situation in Libya)
Even when in opposite positions and interests they still can talk and do some deals by exchanging favors in one place for favors in the other place.
Russia can make life difficult for Turk ambitions if Turks hurt Russian key interests directly in those places so they try to negotiate to have satisfaction on both sides.
Its like making cake with different layers; layer of war-conflicts, than goes layer of diplomacy, than it has layer of trading and exchanging favors, advantages etc. etc.
I don’t agree that ;”Turkey is in Syria to support US Government interests” They are there to support Turk interests and ambitions and only after that comes the rest you have mentioned. Turkey didn’t oppose US in Syria for fun but for satisfying their key interests (position of the Kurds by US were considered to hurt Turk key interests)
I don’t know about China…I think that China Russia alliance is very real. And Russia is most defiantly not globalist country….So I have problem in that case to fit China and Russia together. There is most definitely something missing …hidden and doesn’t work in that explanation
We can argue forever about possibilities and nuances
I would be an idiot to say that your intuitions or fears are unrealistic.
The bottom line is always not whether Turks and SAA want to fight but weather
Turk army will challenge Russia and if so; how far would they go?
Bottom line is always: Can Turkey really push her luck and challenge Russia beyond red line of their agreement?
Because if Turkey does that and create incident, they will not be backed by NATO.
Everything you say makes sense. The only problem is I Don t think turkey is a rational player. Look at what turkey has done during the last 5 years. Intervention in Syria, provocation with Greece, intervention in Lybia, simulated attacks against French and Greek frigates, destroying a Russia su-24. Now turkey wants to get involved in Yemen. Turkey is acting like an out of touch madman. That is why I Don t exclude the escalation scenario.
I never did say they are “rational” but devious cheaters. Yet they can be very “rational” when triggered by fear.
The fear is, the only (?) language they understand… And the thoughts that Russia can hurt them badly, irreparably is always on their mind. So they do watch their step I am sure of that. Immoral and cunning people are not deprived from capacity to rationalize and think The same goes for the countries.
Greece Libiya,
Iraq Syria They are all not Russia! They are not comparable, not good example.
French frigate is Turk incident with powerful (but just another NATO country and very far from escalating). Greece is another story but Turkey (right or wrong doesn’t fear Greece) On paper they are vastly superior but are they really?
I agree with what you said. Fear may put turkey on the right path. I Don t know what will happen but I cannot exclude the worse case scenario because turkey is out of touch with reality. So it could end bad. Do not forget that russia doesn t want a new war. The Russians did not fight the Ukraine for the donbass I Don t see the Russians fighting turkey for the Syrians. The turks know that and that gives them leverage other the Russians.
All your fears are justified. Possibility that ends bad is always there. It is integral part of the situation with partner like Turkey.
In retrospect if we analyze all previous agreements of this type, it is very bumpy road with very slow advancement to acceptable solution for both sides.
Either that or war. I don’t think that Turkey wants to test Russia that far.
“Iraq,Syria – they are all not Russia!”
And no alliance agreement. So Russia has no obligation to fight against Turkey for Syria.
True Anton
But these people are either Muslim or NATO (paid?) agents, or even useful idiots, who parrot what they hear from others (they all have in intrest to see Russians dying in Syria in big numbers for their own objectives) For Muslims the objective is to get Russian Christians getting killed for interests of Muslims in liberating Syria, Iraq (like Shia Iran who pretends Iran to be some kind of power but need Russia to enforce their own interests) Some of them are NATO rats, agents who hate Russia and would like to see Russia involved much more in conflict (in much bigger war) so that way Russia would drain her own strength stack in useless war (like USSR did in Afghanistan)
There is simple logic: if Russia helps to Syria, it should help everywhere. But it’s too simple and wrong. I don’t think that all people with such logic are agents. Especially here.
Su-24 was a provocation of anti-Erdogan group inside Turkey, covered by US. Later they murdered the ambassador. The goal – Turkey more hostile and stops transit via Bosporus – main supply line to Syria. Plus some other old tensions, which could be escalated. That’s why Erdogan sent apologies.
They will be backed by NATO If there is a counter attack. That is why they are so bold that is why they are pushing.
If it was so they would breach agreements in every way possible long time ago already. There was NEVER unanimity over backing ANY country on article 5 ….out of usual framework.
European are not enthusiastic warriors and specially not for Muslim mostly, Asiatic country.
The mistake was even having a ceasefire while the SAA were on a roll backed by the Russian airforce,it would have been just about over by now if they had kept going,now it will cost more Syrian lives,you don’t win a war by giving your enemy time out.
You do remember the period where drones were taking out the field army and pantsirs right? It was also a fast reclamation of areas recently taken. If Syria and Russia could, they would have gone all the way. That roll you were talking about can be easily reversed with more reinforcements. The siege on Idlib could have turned out like that in Tripoli, and imagine the isolation of Russia during that period cheerleaded by the msm and the constitutional amendments suddenly in jeopardy. That ceasefire increased Turkey’s enemies and spread her resources thin. Till the big operation, Syria must plan for the proper answer for Turkish drones and artillery. Expect Israeli and SDF backstabbing also. lol
Actually, you answered question: “Turkish soldiers and terrorists are in the same places so the Syrian Army will likely strike to terrorists and turkish forces…” The Russians will hit them too. Every hit will be: “We targeted terrorists. If you don’t want to die distinguish yourself from terrorists… ” What is Erdogan’s excuse for attacking the Syrian army?
Dead turkish soldiers will be erdogan s excuse to engage the Syrian army. And we all know that the so called “international community” (the US) will back him. The US is very happy to fight Russia to the last ukrainian or to the last turk. Erdogan s ubris is so huge he won t back down easily.
Russia has at least hundreds non-strategic conventional missiles that could reach any part of Turkey. Turkey have no missiles to reach Moskva. Several “Calibers”, Ha-555 and Ha-101, cruise missile of “Iskander” to every port, air base, command center, and Turkey is out of war. Turkey won’t attack russian forces. Yes, they could destroy Hmeymim, but it will be the last fight of Erdogan and may be even whole Turkey.
If the Russian touch one hair on the NFL’s head the Russians will have Erdogan’s wrath to answer to, they’re his golden boys and no one touches them. Smirk. The last time the Russians pissed off Erdogan they killed 200 of his terrorists with just one thermobaric bomb, they were evacuating Aleppo when the Russians got them, and the bomb either burnt them to a crisp where they stood, or just as horrendously, sucked all the air from their lungs and suffocated them as they tried to run away, smirk, encore please.
My opinion here is that things should be observed over a long time, to many it seems that Syria is proceeding too slowly, but the Syrian question is not separate from many other areas of crisis currently in the world, the game that the proponents of multipolarity are leading is a global game, I consider the withdrawal from the Atlantic unipolarity inevitable, but like all strategic changes requires great attention and lucidity, Syria is a fundamental battleground but the stakes go much further, so the choice of when and how to push is done taking into account also the other conflict situations, some of which are thousands of miles from Syria, so far this strategy has paid off and if the skilled strategists of the Kremlin and Beijing maintain the necessary lucidity one step after the other Syria will be freed and the map of the entire Middle East will be redesigned more fairly.
There has to be a showdown with the Turks,it would have been better if it was months ago before they could dig in like they have.
There does not have to be a “showdown.” I think there will be no such action. Turkey will withdraw it’s forces from Syria, before they’re beaten back across the border. The objective is to have US Coalition leave Syria, Turkey is a barely annoying side show. If you think Russia, Syria, Iran, Hezbollah, and other forces in sympathy with Syria’s cause are going to waste their assets on Turkey’s minor irritation before US military has left the country, you’re smokin’ crack. Russia, Syria, and allies pushed US to the edge. US Government has no means other than nuclear war to prevent an enemy force destroying it’s military. Russia held up to provide US military to leave the country intact. Russia already knew the US response, but the opportunity had to be provided regardless. There’s much you’re not paying attention to, regardless how many times it’s pointed out to you.
The only thing dangerous about the Turks is not fighting them.