The Syrian army and the National Defense Forces (NDF), backed up by Syrian and Russian warplanes, have been developing an advance against ISIS in the southern part of the province of Aleppo, according to local sources and media activists.
Since the start of the military operation on January 19, government forces have liberated the villages of Sirdah, Shuraymah, Rasem Askar, Masudiyah, Atshanah, Umm Miyal andJudaydah.
The Shubayt Mount, Akkil, Qulayah, Jubb al-Ali and Khirbat al-Toubah are most likely the next targets of the operation.
The map shows a military situation in the area east of Khanasser on January 20, 2017:
Click to see the full-size map
It seems to me that tacticully the corridor south of Khanasser is very vulnerable. What would happen if IS and rebels were to coordinate locally?
Actually this route has been cut in the past, but they did not hold it for long. Area is mostly open desert with small villages. Neither ISUS nor rebels have many here. It is more like the show rat patrol. You need to understand that ISUS are more like scum. Look at the recent videos they released out of Palmyra.
Yes PZIVJ you are right, there are some separate usable routes southwards from Aleppo although the major highway does turn into Idlib ganglands. Individual groups can always set up temporary roadblocks here or there but they cannot cut the SAA major supply route through Khanasser.
As others have said, this area and adjoining areas east and west are flat empty desert. Occupying it with garrisons is a waste of precious little manpower. It will change hands and the SAA will be able to take it back. If you were told to man a sentry post there you’d be an easy target as you would stick out against the horizon.
The valuable targets are the farming villages in the fertile regions, with their structures, maybe some food, but most importantly a source of manpower if they were not already depopulated.
Colored zones on the map are just a guide and not complete zones of control. SAA have secured their rear supply routes but these can be briefly cut by terrorist gangs in Idlib countryside. Dai ‘sh/ISIS do not occupy this region in strength, they are very thinly spread in small groups and without indirect fire support cannot stop SAA advancing across open terrain (no obvious choke points or routes which cannot be bypassed) This is part of a three-pronged general offensive towards Lake Assad and the N4 highway – in the north Deir Hafir-Jirah Airbase, this one in the center to the heights Tal Durayin- Zabad -N4, in the south from Ithriyah (off-map) NE to N4. All going well.
This seems to be the center thrust of a co-ordinated three-prong offensive. Looking at the SouthFront map and narrative indicates SAA immediate tactical objectives are heights directly south of Al HUMORAT LAKE, that is : TELL DURAYMIN and JABAL SHUBAYT (450 m). SAA could set up a gunline (artillery D-30) here to provide indirect fire support to ground elements advancing parallel and south of the wadi which flows west into the lake. From ZABAD to TELL ANZ (380 m) is about 30 000 meters , usually beyond effective range for 122 mm (D-30, BM-21) and 152 mm (D-20) guns so the offensive would need air or SP gun support to reach the N4 and Lake Assad shores. Air support by RuAF / SyAAF operating from Kuweis would be nice here, but I imagine any available is tasked to the northern prong at Deir Hafir. All my speculation.