Illustrative image, By SANA
On July 20, units of the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) entered the villages of Ayn al-Tinah, Suysah, Qusaybah, Umm Batnah, Naba Alsakher, Muraba’at, Rasm al-Khawalid, al-Mutayhat, Mumtnah and al-Hajah in the southern governorate of al-Quneitra, according to Syrian pro-government sources.
A day earlier, the remaining fighters of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA) in al-Quneitra surrendered and accepted an evacuation agreement. The deployment of the SAA in these villages is a part of the agreement.
The Hezbollah media wing in Syria reported that more than 50 buses entered Umm Batnah in order to evacuate hundreds of militants and their families to the opposition-held areas in the northern governorate of Idlib.
Under the agreement the militants will hand over all of their weapons to the SAA. Furthermore, the United Nations Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) will be redeployed in two observation posts within the demilitarized zone in al-Quneitra.
Once the agreement is executed, the SAA and its allies will likely launch a lager offensive on the valley of al-Yarmouk, which is under the control of the ISIS-affiliated Jaysh Khalid ibn al-Walid Army.
What about Idlib. Looks like Idlib will be FSA and annex to Turkey
not your worry retard.
Let SAA and their allies finish his job there in South Syria Mr. Netanyahu.
Hold up, not so sure. The whole Russian strategy has been to stabilize Syria – and they opted to pursue two diplomatic courses – the localized negotiation of militant surrenders and transferring of hardcore militants into one place, Idlib, and the larger internationally negotiated de-confliction zones. This was all done to relieve intense pressure on SAA and finally reorganize and concentrate its force multiplier advantage into offensives – without pressures of running back and forth putting out fires across multiple fronts, due to synchronized militant offensives across distant sectors (recall 2105). This has paid huge dividends, as seen in SAA offensives to liberate west Dier Ezzore, eastern Ghouta, and now swathes of the south. With the hardcore militants increasingly massed together in far north, as extremists without much factional distinction and strong HTS presence, the SAA and RuAF can break the northern de-confliction zone in Idlib at time of their choosing. Based around any militant provocation – and there will be nothing NATO can do due to the mixed-up HTS presence. Turkey may initially pursue militant proxy resistance, but doubtful they will engage in full direct conflict with SAA and RuAF inside of Syrian territory, without any air cover. Speculating, sure – but there is a distinct Russian pattern and end-game to events here.
Good analysis. I like how you read into the deeper aspects of what is a carefully planned integrated Syrian strategy. Note that Russia will not want hardened terrorists to escape into Turkey due to concerns they will end up crossing into the Caucasus region and become a problem for Russia – they have experienced this before. I am not sure what the deal is yet with Erdogan, he seems still a wildcard.
That said, I find what has taken place in Syria is, despite some missteps and setbacks, one of the finest examples of successful execution of a broad spectrum strategy involving a multi-national coalition in a highly complex and hostile environment. If we want a fine example of one of the most disastrous strategies involving a multi-national coalition in a highly complex and hostile environment, you need only look at Yemen. Honourable mention to US in Iraq. I thought I would summarize what I like about what has happened in Syria and importantly, the very significant consequences for the future.
Russian strategy integrates with a high level of competence military, logistical and geo-political/diplomatic dimensions that has so far to date achieved most strategic aims.
Note also the excellent cohesion of multiple allied forces in coordinating military operations that are structured to facilitate diplomatic efforts and are sensitive to political factors – focus on protecting civilian population in active war zones and providing humanitarian relief. Liberation is followed up by rebuilding efforts to restore infrastructure and resettlement of displaced persons – note Russia has set up formal process for these purposes. This is not simply being nice, this is part of long term strategy to instill acceptance and trust among the population of Syria for the presence of foreign forces.
The reports of rape, looting and violence in Afrin by Turkish backed rebels
Thanks for response. Also largely agree with your points. An interesting extension of which, is that for Syria itself, an effective political way forward, to deal with the NATO occupation of north, both Turkey and US, may be to mobilize or encourage popular localized uprisings, to strip occupiers of any credibility and apply pressure to unsustainability of their presence. Positive exchange – cheers.
I saw Russian strategy as lead by example and avoid directly stoking the fires of militant discontent against the occupiers. But now you got me thinking. There could be a way to ‘innocently’ fan the flames of discontent – oh dear, I had no idea the message in the leaflets we dropped would inspire an uprising against you… lol
The Russian’s certainly have the lead role and the skill-set in complex multiple nation state, and non state, negotiations over Syria. As you indicated the Russians have achieved a remarkable set of initatives in a short amount of time. But it is all to an end – to stabilize and secure the governing institutions and national integrity of Syrian client state. For Syria in medium term if NATO occupiers hang around trying to trade their unsustainable occupied areas for major political concessions from Damascus – ie try and trade their limited hand for something better – then Syria could cautiously apply localized discontent movements against the occupiers as simmering pressure device under the larger Russian strategy and negotiations. And yep – turn the whole popular uprising narrative on its head – against NATO occupation!
nope….idlib will be THE meatgrinder…………..it seems as if a deal was struck between USA/nato/Israel and Russia/syria/iran…………….maybe the sensibel folks have the upper hand now………whats more interesting to me is the wide scale consequences for turkey in the inside and on the outside.Outside means turkey will probably leave nato which will have devastating effects on the strategic south front for nato including the new base that will store natos nuclear armament.On the inside, well turkey will get a couple of tens of thousands maybe even in the hundred of thousands of the worst maniac headchopping jihadi including their families.Idlib will be attacked and only a handfull as usual of the jihadis will fight.Evacuation agreement no more.So there is just one place left.Turkey.The country that sponsored them from day 1.This will have enormous negative effects on turkish inner politics.
looks like it.
And you
whats the matter turk, you dont like the odds? Let me give you an easy one.
How many turks needed to change a light bulp?
cock sucker turkler siksin seni
Make sure you don’t evacuate White head choppers with the rest militants .
How can the HTS Orcs be Green Bused while at the same time their Orc brethren are obstructing the safe evacuation of civilians from Foua/Kafriya Cauldron?
Because the Syrian and Russian negotiators are professional and hold true to their agreements – whereas the militants are an undisciplined rabble of factions, who ultimately reflect the insincerity of their US/Turk/Gulf sponsors.
ONU and UNDOF fuck off bastards!!