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Syrian Oil And US Troop Withdrawal, Explained

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The United States is to keep forces at the oil fields in Syria despite the troops’ withdrawal from the north of the country. The formal justification of the move is the need to “deny ISIS access” to the oil fields. Defense Secretary Mark Esper said that the US military is already “taking some actions” to strengthen and reinforce their position in Deir Ezzor. This, Esper said, will include “some mechanized forces”. US military convoys already started entering Syria from Iraq and moving towards the US-controlled oil fields on the eastern bank of the Euphrates. The Pentagon provided few details regarding numbers of troops and equipment that will remain in the area. Media reports speculate that around 500 personnel reinforced with dozens of pieces of military equipment  will be stationed there. For example, Newsweek reported that the US is seeking to deploy a half of an US Army armored brigade combat team battalion that includes as many as 30 Abrams battle tanks to the oil fields. The US is also going to keep its military garrison in the al-Tanf area, on the Damascus Baghdad highway, where about 150-200 troops remain.

The version of the troops’ withdrawal from Syria that the media is trying to sell its audience says that the US is leaving the country. In reality, the US actions look more like re-deployment than withdrawal.

Firstly, the withdrawal of “a majority of 1,000 troops” is hardly possible if, at the same time, 650-700 troops are to remain in the Deir Ezzor oil fields and al-Tanf.

Secondly, the Trump administration, including the Defense Secretary, said that it was moving troops out of northern Syria, but not that they would be leaving the country. Trump himself described the withdrawal from Syria as a “process”.

Thirdly, the US military convoys which left northern Syria during the active phase of Turkey’s Operation Peace Spring for western Iraq are now returning. Dozens of US military vehicles accompanied by fuel tankers entered Syria on October 26 and 27 alone. US forces also remained deployed at the Qasrak base on the Tell Tamr-Qamishli highway.

Therefore, in the best case the US contingent is being reduced, while the rest of the forces just change their deployment area. The stance of Iraq, which at the highest level rejected the long-term presence of the US troops withdrawing from Syria to western Iraq, also played its own role. Some experts initially suggested that Washington could keep forces on the Iraqi side of the border to project military power to Syria while keeping the troop withdrawal promise at the same time. However, this plan caused too much resistance from the Iraqi government, which is already in much closer relations with Iran than the US has ever wanted.

Another factor is money. The control of a part of Syrian oil does not impact the US economy in general. However, it does open particular prospects for the US campaign in the region and gives the Trump administration additional leverages of pressure on Syria and its allies.

Before 2011, Syria had a lucrative oil industry, pumping about 400,000 barrels a day and having 2.5 billion barrels of reserves. The ensuing war and wide-scale Western sanctions devastated the country’s economy, cutting production by around 90% and forcing the Assad government to rely heavily on foreign imports of oil, mainly from Iran.

The known oil reserves are mainly in the eastern part of the country near its border with Iraq and along the Euphrates River. The largest and most mature fields are the Omar and Jbessa fields, which reportedly had production capacities of 100,000 and 200,000 barrels a day, respectively, in 2010. This is the area where the US is planning to keep its military presence. It is estimated that around 75% of Syrian oil reserves are under the direct or indirect control of the US. A number of smaller fields are located in the center of the country, which is controlled by the Syrian Army, and in the country’s northeast, which is now under the joint control of the Syrian Army and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

When the SDF and the US-led coalition seized the fields, the revenue from smuggling of Syrian oil was estimated at around $10 million a month with the price of around $30 per barrel. However, thanks to assistance from companies affiliated with US intelligence agencies and private military companies the oil output and thus revenue grew significantly.

According to an October 26 report by the Russian Defense Ministry, the US military and private military contractors are now actively involved in protecting and managing oil smuggling in eastern Syria. The oil production itself is carried out using equipment provided by Western corporations bypassing all US sanctions. The oil exportation is implemented by the US-controlled company «Sedkab», created under the so-called Autonomous Administration of Eastern Syria, a political body created by the SDF, when US troops were deployed in northern Syria. The income from the smuggling goes through brokerage companies interacting with various accounts of US private military companies and US intelligence agencies. The Russian side says that the barrel cost of smuggled Syrian oil is $38 and estimates a monthly revenue for the US “business” involved in the operation of over $30 million.

The business interests of US agencies and entities involved in the operation offer more reasons for the US presence in the area. It can be expected that if the situation in this part of Syria remains unchanged, the Trump administration will indeed go forward with its withdrawal “process” and more and more US troops will be replaced by US-linked private military contractors. Meanwhile US agencies and private military corporations will use revenue from the oil smuggling for further operations across the Middle East.

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Karen Bartlett

From poppy smuggling in Iraq to oil smuggling in Syria. No wonder our troops are demoralized. And no mothers or wives in the US have seen any soldier coming home.

MADE MAKER

OIL US Addiction , protect the OIL forget the Kurds

alejoeisabel

Time is on Syria’s side. As Syria consolidates its victory over foreign aggression, the cost of occupation and aggression increases for the United States. The fundamental issue for the United States military is ‘do we go to war with Russia over pillage’. For US soldiers, ‘do you want to die as a soldier or as a thief.’

CHUCKMAN

The Syrian War has always been about toppling or at least dividing Syria.

And that is something strongly advocated and materially supported by Israel for years.

Well, the long and costly proxy war is mainly over and it was lost by Israel’s side.

Israel has pressed Trump to keep at least some consolation prize which cripples Syria.

And facing re-election and in need of lots of funds from lobby interests, Trump is glad to provide.

The oil fields are it.

Over time, though, as you suggest, I think the American hold on the fields is not sustainable.

It even works against American interests in the Middle East with the appearance of open piracy by the American military in a region extremely sensitive about the ownership of oil.

With Russian influence rising and American influence waning in the region, it would be pretty foolish over any extended time period to hang on to this booty.

But the superficial explanation for occupying the oil fields gave Trump something to crow about – and being a crude man, crowing and bellowing about unsavory things is something he enjoys – instead of telling the simple truth about Israel’s clear influence.

No heavy-duty American supporter of Israel’s interests admits in public to such things because the cumulative effect over time of such admissions would be to cast Israel in a very poor light.

During all the years of the Neocon Wars, we rarely heard the fundamental reason for them articulated. However, there was a moment with George Bush – after the invasion of Iraq in 2003, and hearing that Ariel Sharon was lobbying for another country being invaded – was quoted along the lines of, “Geez, I invaded Iraq for him. What more does he want?”

The quote was not given big play but was in some of the corporate press, and it is one of the fundamental pieces of evidence we have concerning the true nature of America’s bloody efforts in the Middle East over the last fifteen years or so.

bob

How has Israel lost?

Israel isn’t destroyed is it?

It’s normal Syrian people who’ve lost, millions displaced,injured, or killed

The only thing that will’ cripple ‘ Syria in the long term is the idiot Assad and his inner circle of cronies,after all it was these people who caused the revolution, but i know, you don’t wanna hear that do you

Syria will remain a basket case for the foreseeable future because Putin needs a base for his clapped out military and to prove the point that Russia is ‘ back’ ergo Assad will be kept as a useful idiot nasty dictator vassal, which will mean more cronyism and corruption, Syria wont be rebuilt just plundered a bit more, with Russians getting some of the cream

Oh and by the way, Iraq doesn’t want US out as they are fed up with Iranian meddling in their country, thats why there’s been huge demonstrations recently in which hundreds have been gunned down by snipers, its claimed these snipers are from Iran or force’s aligned to Iran

This report is nothing more than fake news and pro Assad propaganda, what is it with you people?why do you want this vile man and his family in charge of Syria?

Robert Ferrin

Some proof please if not all your peddling is nothing but bullshit and propaganda.!!!

Aaron Driver

You mean the snipers that are cia operatives, just like in thailand, just like in ukraine just like in hong kong

bob

No Iranian!

Do yourself a favour,go pop your little propaganda bubble

Robert Ferrin

Another one who post endless propaganda never putting forth any proof except what occupies that empty space between his ears.!!!

bob

You wouldn’t understand proof if it was a ten ton bomb, you and your fellow travellers don’t do truth,ergo absolutely no point in wasting my time

You’ll have to punch your way out of the propaganda bubble

The question is are you up to it?

Robert Ferrin

Lol just as I thought nothing but propaganda which you seem somewhat good at.!!!

bob

Check out RT International they’re now covering those riots against Iranian meddling in Iraq

I did tell you but you didn’t want to believe me so perhaps the official international propaganda channel of the kremlin will help….

….yes,yes i know you’ll blame it all on Zionist trouble maker’s…

…..I’m off,cant stand the echo in here!

purplelibraryguy

Those riots aren’t against “Iranian meddling” in particular. They’re against the whole corrupt Iraqi political class, whether Iranian affiliated, US affiliated, or just feathering their nests independently. They’re against practically all government spending just disappearing, nothing getting rebuilt, because there’s five layers of bastards on the take between money allocated and anything actually getting done. I support the rioters wholeheartedly, but we should be clear that the current level of money diversion did not exist under Saddam, it was introduced by the Americans, partly accidentally, partly on purpose.

Gregory Casey

You are either (a) a propagandist or (b) drowned in Israeli propaganda. You’ll be older than Methuselah by the time the vast majority of Syrians are sick of Bashar al Assad.

bob

There’s a about, oh let me see, yup! Millions who are sick of Assad thats why they’re refugees

A await your next utterly stupid comment!

Gregory Casey

You can remain wherever you are. Those who remained within Syria’s Borders and fought to retain Syrian independence will be quite happy that you remain wherever you are beyond Syrian Borders.

igybundy

https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-concurrent-resolution/70/text?r=1&s=5

H.Con.Res.70 – Directing the President pursuant to section 5(c) of the War Powers Resolution to remove United States Armed Forces from hostilities in the Syrian Arab Republic that have not been authorized by Congress.

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/44900af84eae2407040f676a439a8cd6376bf3b04486a5fe446ff933296bae39.jpg

Garga

IMO, the USG’s goal is to keep the current conditions and dragging it until 2021 and hope somebody “more manageable” than president Assad comes forward (which will obviously be backed by freedom-loving MSM and democracy-loving western governments). In the meantime, they’ll do their best to prevent the country to become stabilized and normal by throwing a wrench into refugees return and keep Kordish leadership from doing the right and sensible thing (which is an extremely an easy job, they bribe a few and this few fool the rest with the illusion of creating another Ethno-Facsist state in ME) and monkey business in the constitutional committee.

The oil theft and smuggling is to mainly finance this operation (which has no entry in US budget) and helping Israel with cheap stolen oil. The problem created by this for the Syrians is a by-product but still welcomed by the crazies.

igybundy

ah yep they are very easy to find.. look at the ones whos fat and thems the ones.. Look at the fighters and such who are forced to go die for these corrupt power mongers.. A huge difference in how these eleties and common kurds live. and its always the fat ones making bombastic statements without anything to back it up.

Joe Cassese

As I see it, it’s not not about looting the oil. It’s about cutting revenue and energy supplies to the legitimate Syrian government.

Sort of an embargo.

By doing so, the US Government is serving notice to the Syrian people, Russia and Iran: ” Unless you get rid of the present Syrian government you will be unable to regain access to the oil fields, To attempt to regain control without doing so, your next war will be with the US.” The US Executive Branch, Intelligence Agencies and Military Leadership are criminally Insane..

Sadde

Isn’t US stealing/plundering/looting Syrian Oil by selling and using the revenue to own end?

Joe Cassese

“As I see it, it’s not not about looting the oil.” Correction: “As I see it, it’s not just about looting the oil.” Thank you. JoeC

Willing Conscience (The Truths

“When the SDF and the US-led coalition seized the fields, the revenue from smuggling of Syrian oil was estimated at around $10 million a month with the price of around $30 per barrel. However, thanks to assistance from companies affiliated with US intelligence agencies and private military companies the oil output and thus revenue grew significantly”.

It costs the US 15 billion a year to stay in Syria, that’s 1.25 bill a month, or if you like 1,250, 000,000 a month, so even if the 10 million oil revenue a month has gone up to 100 million a month, that still means the US will be spending 1,250, 000,000 a month to make 100,000,000 a month, not even 10% of what it’s actually costing the US to stay in Syria. The only other person other than Assad that could possibly make any profit out of the Syrian oilfields would be Erdogan, proximity to Turkish refineries and established nearby pipeline infrastructure [Iraq/Turkey], as well as political affiliation with the local Syrian Turkmen population might help make them profitable for Erdogan too, that’s if he decided to take them by force. And since his proxy forces the NSA haven’t really abided by the arrangements Erdogan’s already made with both the US and the Russians, who’s really expecting them to abide to anything they’re supposed to now. They seem to do whatever they want to despite all Erdogan’s efforts to keep them on a tight leash. And I’ll bet they already have their greedy little eyes on the oil fields to the south and to the east, but that’s only if Erdogan hasn’t already told them he’ll take them for himself eventually. The US will never ever make a profit out of Syrian oil they have to secure the oil militarily, but the Turks possibly could.

igybundy

oh? The aim is not for the US to make a profit but to provide israel with free oil paid by the US tax payers.. Its always to give freebies to the zionists with dual passports and single loyalty and thats not to the US..

Willing Conscience (The Truths

I’m not sure that’s the case this time, I have my suspicions Erdogan’s the one being kept from the oil now, not Assad. Trumps said many times now, “Syria should retain its sovereign territorial integrity”, which by default must include the oil as Syria’s sovereign property, so if Trumps saying Assad can have the territory back, the oil will have to come with it too, [eventually].

The Jewish news I read seems to indicate that Trumps on the nose with the die hard Zionists, and the fact he sacked Bolton [a die hard US government Zionist] just a week before the Israeli elections didn’t do the Zionists any favours at all. Now for the first time in decades, the Blue and White party are sitting down with 2 Arab factions and discussing the possibility of a minority Jewish/Arab coalition government, which would be a huge slap in the face for the die hard Zionists. The Blue and White party are Zionists too but not quite as bad as Likud and the other nutjob parties.

Gregory Casey

Israel hasn’t turned up its nose to free Oil from Syria for the past 7-8 years so it’s unlikely to want to give up that much free oil now.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

Apart from wild speculation and a multitude of conspiracy theories by a variety of Arab media outlets, there has never been any evidence whatsoever supporting the accusation, “Israel buys smuggled Syrian oil”, they do buy Iraqi oil from Iraqi Kurdistan via Turkey, but have never been known to buy smuggled Syrian oil, at least as far as I’m aware. In 2016 both the Russians and the Israelis made accusations against Erdogan and members of the Turkish government, they asserted the Turkish government was illicitly dealing with Isis and and stealing Syrian oil, so if the Israelis were indeed buying smuggled Syrian oil as you believe they were, they were being pretty stupid by aiming the spotlight on what the Turks and Isis were getting up to, it would’ve possibly also revealed their own complicity with either Isis or Turkey, and I doubt they would’ve done that. The 3 countries official acknowledged to have been complicit in the illicit oil trade with Isis are Turkey, Jordan, and Iraq, which all had borders with the Isis caliphate at one time or another.

Gregory Casey

Why did Turkish PM suddenly disappear? He & his family were caught trousering monies fiddled from peddling stolen Syrian Oil. Erdogan stayed, saved by Putin but his thieving son and his criminal cabal had to go to ground and allow the oil to flow freely across the Turkish Border from where much of it was shipped to Israel.

Willing Conscience (The Truths

No Davutoğlu and his family weren’t caught pilfering Syrian oil, only Erdogan and his son were caught, the Israelis and Russians accused those two as well as a few other members of the Turkish government, not Davutoğlu as far as I’m aware. The real reasons for Davutoğlu’s resignation was a fracturing of relations between him and Erdogan, both were supportive of the Muslim brotherhood and Isis, but as far as the US, Russia, Iran and Israel were concerned, they were poles apart in policy. Davutoğlu is pro US and NATO, semi pro Israel [at least when compared to Erdogan], pro Russian trade and investment but totally opposed to political cooperation with Russia, and in fact is supportive of many groups the Russians don’t like and have listed as terrorists, and he’s also totally opposed to Shia Iran. Erdogan on the other hand is always having problems with the US and NATO, totally antagonistic towards Israel [the one good thing he does], and is totally pro Russian in nearly every way, at least when it suits him, and lastly Erdogan loves Iran, at least he loves the cheap oil he buys from them and the KDP Iraqi Kurds. I’m not sure if you’re aware of it but Turkey’s had US sanctions imposed on them for nearly a decade, that’s made it hard for them to buy oil and gas and heaps of other things too, any oil they managed to get wouldn’t have been sold on to Israel, because even if Erdogan was the most pro Israeli Turkish President in history, he still wouldn’t have onsold oil to them, he needs it desperately himself and can’t spare any. Though that’s been changing thanks to Putin’s help, and soon Turkey will become a transit hub for Russian oil and gas to Europe, and will make heaps of cash out of reselling or taxing the Russian oil and gas the flows through Turkey. If Israel was buying pilfered Syrian oil from Turkey as you claim they are, why would they be saying Assad can stay in power, and also saying the Turks have to get out of Syria as well, that would be the last 2 things I’d imagine them saying if they were actually buying stolen Syrian oil via Turkey, but they’ve been saying that for nearly 18 months now so I doubt very much they’re buying any Syrian oil from Turkey. And even though Turkey buys oil from the KDP Iraqi Kurds, who they have excellent relations with, I can assure you the Turks wouldn’t buy oil from either the Turkish/Kurdish PKK or Syrian/Kurdish YPG/SDF, they’re terrorists in Erdogan’s eyes and he shoots them on sight, and why would the YPG/SDF want to make Erdogan even more powerful by selling him cheap oil, that doesn’t make any sense at all. The 2 worst enemies in the world happily doing business together at the same time they’re spitefully killing each other, mmmm that seems highly unlikely to me.

Assad must stay (gr8rambino)

SAA PLEASE DO.NOT.LET US TAKE YOUR OIL!!! STOP THEM HOWEVER POSSIBLE!!!

Gregory Casey

I agree but give them time to establish themselves on the E Bank of the Euphrates.

Assad must stay (gr8rambino)

i wish time was on their side

Rodney Loder

The US can’t stay in Syria without Kurds acting as proxies, the Kurds are very vulnerable in Syria and elsewhere.

Douglas Houck

I agree, and the Kurds who are supporting the Americans are a small part of the Syrian Kurds. I found the recent interview with President al-Assad most interesting when he was asked about the Americans and the oil. Notice his term of Syrian traitors is in reference to these Syrian Kurds.

“Journalist: returning to politics, and to the United States, in particular, President Donald Trump announced his intention to keep a limited number of his troops in Syria while redeploying some of them on the Jordanian borders and on the borders of the Israeli enemy, while some of them will protect the oil fields. What is your position in this regard, and how will the Syrian state respond to this illegitimate presence?

President Assad: Regardless of these statements, the reality is that the Americans are occupiers, whether they are in the east, the north or the south, the result is the same. Once again, we should not be concerned with his statements, but rather deal with the reality. When we are finished with the areas according to our military priorities and we reach an area in which the Americans are present, I am not going to indulge in heroics and say that we will send the army to face the Americans. We are talking about a super power. Do we have the capabilities to do that? I believe that this is clear for us as Syrians. Do we choose resistance? If there is resistance, the fate of the Americans will be similar to their fate in Iraq. But the concept of resistance needs a popular state of mind that is the opposite of being agents and proxies, a patriotic popular state which carries out acts of resistance. The natural role of the state in this case is to provide all the necessary conditions and necessary support to any popular resistance against the occupier. If we put to one side the colonial and commercial American mentality which promotes the colonization of certain areas for money, oil and other resources, we must not forget that the main agents which brought the Americans, the Turks and others to this region are Syrians acting as agents of foreigners – Syrian traitors. Dealing with all the other cases is just dealing with the symptoms, while we should be addressing the causes. We should be dealing with those Syrians and try to reformulate the patriotic state of the Syrian society – to restore patriotism, restore the unity of opinion and ensure that there are no Syrian traitors. To ensure that all Syrians are patriots, and that treason is no longer a matter of opinion, a mere difference over a political issue. We should all be united against occupation. When we reach this state, I assure you that the Americans will leave on their own accord because they will have no opportunity to remain in Syria; although America is a superpower, it will not be able to remain in Syria. This is something we saw in Lebanon at a certain point and in Iraq at a later stage. I think this is the right solution.”

see: https://sana.sy/en/?p=177331

Rodney Loder

Trump was rattled by the response to his retreat, so this oil fields redeployment is an empty gesture that would be stupid to respond to, as Assad points out, it’s contingent on Idlib.

SAA should go in guns blazing in Idlib, while supporting Brother Erdogen in the buffer zone which could be extended south claiming YPG attacks, the US forces will get out of the way only if requires to.

There is no way the US will engage Turkey and no way Turkey will lay claim to any part of Syria.

al-Zawahir and al-Julani won’t be able to stop the drift of their foot soldiers away to enlist in FSA units now willing to accept Turkish leadership and attack Kurds almost in any locality.

Assad admits in the interview that the political process hasn’t started yet.

Trump is a transparent President – American Kurdish Agreement – President Trump is inconsistent continually that is too kind.

Assad says the SAA can’t pursue a sectarian agenda but there are many in Syria who can if harnessed by Turkey.

Assad should no hinder this.

Kurds can assimilate but not at the moment in my opinion language comes first Assad knows that, so he has to be diplomatic but there is little different between my ideas and his.

Also israel is being marginalized Assad could go out on a limb and join Hezbollah thereby taking advantage of Saudi Arabia’s open support for the invasion of Al-Aqsa, – ( see Kim Iversen ‘s video ” What I saw in the West Bank”), -this could be a game changer if Assad is up for it at an opportune time.

After 2020 Trump could be hell bent on saying sorry to his money men backers by offering US interventions.

Again also, if Assad invited me to make my claim as the Mahdi in Damascus supported by my Salafist connections the lid would come off Pandoras box for the Freemason Christian traitors and assorted swine namely israel.

Gregory Casey

Truth!

Rodney Loder

Truth . Will win in the end.

AM Hants

When you include the two articles below, it opens up all that is behind what is happening in the Middle East. No doubt the US Government funded NED, with support from European tax payer funded NGOs, will be doing there best, using the old regime change scripts, to keep chaos flowing in the Middle East.

I remember ‘red tick’ mentioning it was all about the water. Together with the fact that Soros funded the Catonia independence movement, as part of a project, which would lead to Russia being denied access to the Med. Why does the Kissinger statement ‘who controls Crete, Cyprus and Malta, controls the world’ spring to mind? What was Operation Gladio set up for and does it merge with the Greater Israel Project?

The Middle East’s New Post-Regime Change Future Putin Lays the Ground for the Belt and Road… https://www.fort-russ.com/2019/11/the-middle-easts-new-post-regime-change-future/

Does the US military wish to be just cannon fodder for experts, with heavy investments in the US military industrial complex?

US Military Experts Rate Russia As ‘Serious And Fearsome Threat’…https://www.fort-russ.com/2019/11/us-military-experts-rate-russia-as-serious-and-fearsome-threat/

What does President Assad have to say?

WATCH Assad’s Latest Tell-All Interview On The Real Situation In Syria… https://www.fort-russ.com/2019/11/watch-assads-latest-tell-all-interview-on-the-real-situation-in-syria/

bob

Assad has effectively had his country invaded by Turkey

Its now partitioned by this American presence near the oil fields

So Assad has what looks like a very hollow victory

He’s nothing but a puppet dictator trapped in his totally unequal relationship with Putin’s Russia and Iran, booth of which are corrupt regimes going nowhere fast!

Robert Ferrin

Your right reminds of the U.S. broke and pregnant relying on welfare while the 1% bleeds the nation dry of the left overs,looking for yet another war as it flays about in rage and ruin seeking at another war,as a congressman said yesterday a civil war is coming, no doubt to a neighborhood near so simply wait and enjoy it.!!!

Aaron Driver

Assad has over 70 percent of his country and growing every day in his control and has brought liberation to every Syrian that is a true patriot to Syrian soil long live Assad a true leader that will not bow down to the likes of the US israel Saudi Arabia axis of evil

bob

You mean he’s brought back 70% of his country under his puppet dictatorship

AM Hants

‘Ain’t over till the fat lady sings’ as everything comes together. Remember what Syria was like back in 2015, before they invited Russia to lend a hand?

bob

No thanks!

I just remember what its been like for the last forty years, here’s a clue

dysfunctional tin pot dictatorship,oh did you know it’s security services were created by former Nazi war criminals, based upon Gestapo methods?

You need to wake up and smell the coffee, although you’d need a respirator in Syria,wink,wink!

smertzakrov

the expense of the mercenaries will not be offset by the stolen oil–Syria has never produced oil for export, only domestic use. US conduct, as usual is sadistic, immoral

Daily Beatings

When all of the US troops are replaced by mercs then you’ll start to see some Houthi like action by third party actors.

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