Click to see the full-size image
As the defense of the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces is crumbling under pressure from Turkey-led forces, the situation is northern Syria is becoming more and more tense.
Over the past few days, the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and its allies have deployed several groups of reinforcements near the SDF-held town of Manbij preparing to take control of it in the event of the further development of the crisis. There are two situations that would set preconditions for such a move:
- The SDF and the SAA reach an agreement over the town and the SAA enters Manbij in order to protect it from Turkey;
- The SDF once again rejects protection proposed by the SAA and Manbij becomes a target of the Turkish military operation. In this event there are no doubts that the SDF will lose the battle for Manbij. So, the SAA’s main goal would be to prevent Turkey from taking control of Manbij.
I’m 100% sure the Kurds will manage to fuck things in this regard, they always do. They’re like the Palestinians in this regard, whenever presented with the chance of even any kind of deal they will still say no. And end up even worse. How’s clinging to the US working out for you guys? Didn’t you get the hint after losing Afrin?
They gave lives over manbij assad should not just take it but have a co operating management with kurds over there this is the most basic thing and a respect to what they suffered and sacrificed not just for manbij but whole north syria.
Are you talking about the guys smuggling syrian oil creating a fuel shortage in Syria to please their U$A master ? And their master dumped them..
Too bad being a known traitor, the day of reckoning has began.
That was isis isisgling oil to turks just watch russian videos you fool
no, you are mentioning a different Thing . I am Talking of the time the Kurds were protected by their U$A paymaster (so last week) – I do not recall Syrian Oil being delivered to the Syrians, in fact there was a fuel shortage in Syria
Hint: The Iranian tanker that the Mighty U$A wanted to stop
Ferengi proverb says dignity and an empty sack is worth the sack. What the fuck is respect worth when the Turks take Manbij because you thought playing power games with Assad was more important. Because he’s going to lean over backwards and let the Turks steamroller over you.
Ferengi proverb also says a kurd separated from his goats means he sleeps alone tonight.
Manbij is not the property of the Kurds. They have operated as mercy for the US and others and are now getting the due and just wages of beings mercy who stayed too long. The smart thing have done was not court the Israelis in the 1970s but, the have worked something out with the Syrian government long ago. this large scale backstabbing, long schemed upon, is blowing up on their faces. Good for them. I feel for the little guys involved, they always get crushed. But, as for Kurd leadership, they can go to hell. Enjoy the BBQ over there. Aside form the ones who created this crap, I wish well to the rest. My take.
Nobody said its their property land is no ones oroperty not just assad au no ones its gods man land. I said they gave lives for people there there has not oil has not anything just cleared isis for sake of people you believe or not no one cares.
Okay, fair enough Sasan.
The Palestinians (or at least the patriots who love their country) do not want a bullshit deal. They want their land back.
Nothing is worse than surrendering and saying “okay Israel, I guess you are here to stay” and live forever as second class citizens/displaced people’s.
I’m not denying that, but in the absence of a massive liberation army gathering off shore, or some rich sugar daddy championing up your cause some realism has to creep into your decision making progress. Israel is not going to go away, it will nuke any country that will try to do so into oblivion. It’s here to stay. The question is, like it has been since the UN partition proposal of 1947, how much of Palestine are the Palestinians going to able to still call home. And the trend in this regard is that what has been on offer to the Palestinians keeps on getting smaller with every proposal that gets rejected. We’re now dealing with less that was agreed upon by the Oslo accords, and which got derailed by both Hamas and Netanyahu. Keep on saying no and eventually they will get evicted from the land altogether. At least former Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat understood this, which is why he signed the Oslo accords with Rabin. They offer you anything, its better to take it then to be left standing with nothing.
Is it fair? Of course not. Their land was stolen from them. And keeps on getting stolen. There is no fairness here. Ferengi proverb says: Dignity and an empty sack is worth the sack.
Lmao, as if they were ever going to see a piece of the land offered. There was never a two state solution on the table. It was just bullshit from the beginning. They would waltz in and take what they want and use some BS terrorist pretext to do it, just like they did to Lebanon in 82. Just like the Americans and British did to the Natives.
As for Israel is here to stay, we’ll see. Low probability is not ‘unrealistic’. We ain’t talking about unicorns and shit. We are talking about a group that is working day and night to see Israel no longer exist.
What sensible deal was ever presented to the Palestinian and they rejected it? Can you cite one example of a deal that if you were to be a Palestinian, will be acceptable? Just give us one…so that the here will know your IQ level
The Palestinians did reject the UN partition plan, preferring to trust on their Arab brethren to drive the Israelis into the sea. And we all know how that worked out. The 1948 borders saw a lot more land in Israeli hand then was forseen in the UN partition plan. They should have taken that deal.
No Palestinian state was formed after 1948, Egypt and Jordan probably had something to do with that as well.
The Oslo accords saw Arafat’s PLO regain control of the Gaza strip and parts of the West bank. Its main weakness was that further land transfers would have to be negotiated at a later date. Which might have worked if Rabin had not been assassinated. But Hamas opposed the deal and carried out a series of attacks that undermined Rabin’s successor and which brought Netanyahu to power, who then proceeded to sabotage the Oslo accords.
In the final days of his presidency Bill Clinton wanted to reach an Israeli Palestinian peace deal as his legacy and summoned both leaders to Camp David for a deal. A deal was on offer but the Palestinians rejected it because East Jerusalem was not on offer.
And currently we have ( of sorts) the Trump deal, which is arguably the worst deal on offer. Worse then the Clinton deal. Which was worse then the Oslo accords, which was worse then the UN partition plan. But if the current trend holds its almost certain that a later deal will be even worse. So it would be smarter for the Palestinians to accept any deal now, then reject it, because things will get worse for them in the future. I wouldn’t put it beyond Israel to start to ethnically cleanse the West bank and dump its population in the Gaza strip and surrounding countries.
This is nothing like the Palestinians. The Kurds made a deal with the devil(US). Palestine was invaded/occupied by a predatory parasite.
Yeah, that is a major difference. Still, I wonder who is more stupid, he who rejects any deals and has nobody backing them up, or he who rejects any deals and thinks the US will protect him until the end of time?
The 3rd option the one who makes a deal with the US…
I agree but disagree if anything I compare the Kurds to the Israelis. I’m not sure we can fairly compare Palestinians and Kurds: Palestinians have very very few choices and any deal given to them will never be a fair deal. The Kurds on the other hand have stabbed Syria in the back, America has used the Kurds many times in the past and have always betrayed them.the Kurds control most of the Syrian oil and they sell it to Israel. While Iran has to transport oil to Syria for Syria to survive. That is a huge backstab. And now they running to the SAA for help. So I definitely believe the Israelis and Kurds have more in common
Not really, because the Israelis are never in a position where they have to chose between having a bad deal, or be worse off with no deal. The Kurds consistently make bad choices in that regard, so do the Palestinians. Although the motivations are totally different of course, and no moral judgment on the Palestinians is implied, as I can understand and relate why they do it.
Palestinians little choice ?! Lol many powers in the region and many many millions at least support them in words while alot of world doesnt even know how kurds kurd persecuted and genocided while no one supported them i mean only civilians nit parties or militias or anything also for 100000th time i said kurds approached to government to rocognise their rights then integrate to regime in autonomous rule for 5 times assad denied even when russia russia supported kurds so what they do? Who gave them weapons against isis in kobane ? You would give? Who the fuck then? They just accepted weapons when they needed and assad aas fucked by isis you should be thankful kurds kurds de isis so assad advanced not to bite the hand helped you. Also do not forget in 80s and 2000s syrian regime massacred kurds 3 times this is while 1 million kurds were stripped of birth certificate!!
This would be a big plus for Syria. SAA has routes set up south of Manbij. But still waiting for the Kurds to make the right decision.
Even with SDF agreement, Syria to set up a border batallion to get in the way of a determined Turkey. That’s upping the stakes a lot; Syria vs Turkey. Bye bye Assad + Syria?
No way will Assad agree to ‘cooperate’ with the SDF over Manbij. In case anyone out there hasn’t noticed, the SAA IS NOT POWERFUL ENOUGH to defend itself or any part of Syria against Turkey, period. I’m not talking about moral righteousness or Syrian patriotism, but cold, hard military fact.
Russia is not going to step in here, and they made this very clear to Assad a long time ago.
Once Erdogan dumps the three or four million Syrian ARAB refugees from Turkish refugee camps into Kurdish areas of the safe zone (yeah, ethnic cleansing) just like he did in Afrin, then Syria/Russia can negotiate Turkish troop withdrawal in a few years. Erdogan will be fine with that. He doesn’t want to babysit head-chopper refugees in either Turkey or Syria forever and has no intention of annexing Syrian territory. What he wants – and apparently will get – is a half-million less Kurds within 30 km of his border, replaced with a nice buffer of three or four million Syrian ARAB ex-head-choppers and their refugee families that have no financial backer now and kind of owe Turkey for hosting them. It’s not a good solution for Syria, but it’s the only one they’re likely to have for the foreseeable future and it’s not permanent. Russia will see to that.
If Syria diverts itself from the immediate task of taking back Idlib and securing the Al Bukamal/ Al Qaim border crossing, then they will lose both and screw themselves of ever protecting Aleppo from surrounding head-choppers. And it will all be for nothing, because Turkey is too big to stop if they really want al Bab. The tFSA doesn’t have any heavy arms – it’s all Turkish armor/artillery/air force backing them up. If the tFSA can’t take al Bab, then the TAF itself will roll up from behind and produce the right conditions.
“If Syria diverts itself from the immediate task of taking back Idlib and securing the Al Bukamal/ Al Qaim border crossing” Are you even serious. and why is Al Bab in this discussion? “If the tFSA can’t take al Bab, then the TAF itself will roll up from behind and produce the right conditions.” Is this a frickin joke?
Typo – meant Manbij, edited to correct. Sorry.
If you want to edit, you should delete your entire post. :D
Got a less-smelly alternative, considering all the moving pieces?
But why is Idlib the immediate concern, and how many troops does it take to secure the border crossing, perhaps a battalion? There is no threat from Idlib, they are on the defensive. Perhaps you need to re edit your post again ?
Syria set up a border batallion to get in the way of a determined Turkey. Ouff, that’s upping the stakes a lot; Syria v Turkey. Bye bye Assad + Syria?
In general I agree with your big picture analysis. However re. MANBIJ I remain puzzled why Turkey has so far failed to take it, given their overwhelming positive force ratio. TSK armor/mech battalions with precision arty zeroed in on just about every SDF position have been camped along the SAJUR riverline for 12 months, just itching and waiting for the get go – MANBIJ city is just 11 km from their start line FFS, Turkey could obliberate all targeted SDF defenses and stroll in to the city – I can only assume that US SF teams are still present, and so far Turkey has agreed to hold back – that may change if US becomes more belligerent and fires on regular TSK around Ayn al-Arab/Kobani
but putin has erdogan in a tight grip and erdogan will do as told, which is basically to clear the northeast of kurds and that is the same objective that assad happens to have so when the kurds are neutered turkey can go home and assad take control of the northeast and trump saw the opportunity to get out and took it, whatever the democrats and the mic/deep state/fic might have to say.
so all’s well that ends well and the probability in this case is quite good!
solve the problem – give half of Turkey to the Kurds and other minorities. Rubblelize Edergons Palace along with his Alqueda and ISIS mercenaires and his army of fools.
I think the famous sentence:
The chickens are coming to the home roost committee attention.
Should be revisited into:
the kurds invited at home the roost committee, making sure to scratch the roost committee car parked in the porch beforehand ?
it is time for the SAA to liberate the territory marked with yellow..
Hahahaha (((kurds))) on suicide watch. Arab Baathism is the only answer to Syria.
I am happy saddam and assadis never got along with each other and hatef each other while both called baathis loooooool ?
Silly bloody Kurds stuffing everything up still as was intended from the begining. I wonder if the SAA isnt better just sitting back and watch them get eliminated and deal with Turkey afterwards?
i wonder if turkey would attack SAA if they setup a barrier to protect kurds, and i wonder what russia/putin is thinking about all this
Good question!!!!
Kurds SDF should allow SAA to enter in Manjib…the enemy of Syria are the Turks and his puppets ( the suni wahabi islamist branch FSA, HTS, ISIS full of foreign terrorist)…
Given the lack of US airstrikes in previous SDF losses west of the river. It’s questionable if they’d intervene on the Kurds behalf. They also have the no fly zone west of the river to contend with.
The traitors would rather loos Manbij to the Turks, than give it back to Syria.
kurds authorised SAA occupied manbij?? hummm! https://media2.giphy.com/media/26tPcsL7jdYNoL0vm/giphy.gif