Illustrative Image
There is an unfinished business in the Caucus for Azaris. The grand expansion & conquering of the ancient Karabakh lands until the state border of Armenia is not done as yet. There is however a brick wall that they have to come up against. The Russian Peacekeeping Mission. If Azari are good in one thing that is undoubtedly being the best geopolitical opportunists of all time. There was a reported buildup & an attempted incursion into Artsakh by the Azari forces a couple of days back. What are they trying to achieve?
Is this a one time random or an accidental incident ? Or is it a timely well calculated beginning of a series of events to follow. Let’s do the math
In the international arena a tectonic plate shifting is happening. It is almost the moment of the collision of the continents. The war in Ukraine is heating up with Russian forces decimating the Ukrainian army in the Don basin. Albanians in the breakaway Kosovo province are openly upping the ante against Serbs with a possible NATO intervention on the horizon. Nancy Pelosi’s much hyped & provocative state visit to Taipei is dominating the global news. The world is in utter chaos & the focus , attention of the international community keeps changing from one theater of geopolitics to another. The focus is in disarray. So who will have time for a small incursion by the Azari forces into Artsakh.
The energy crisis that is devastating the European continent has made gas rich countries such important partners more than ever. Europe is not held hostage by the barrel but by Pipelines. Europeans are pushed against the wall & they are desperate in finding Gas for their industries and the population. Winter is coming & the empty gas storage facilities in Europe are worse than a nightmare. Algeria’s gas supply will be reduced with pre planned maintenance of the pipeline. Neither Qatar nor Iran could accommodate the growing desperate demands. That makes the Caucus Gas King Ilham Aliyev the president of Azerbaijan an untouchable, strategically important , valuable partner. No one in the right mind would want to antagonize Azerbaijan or to be in their bad books. That gives Azaris a leverage way above their weight class.
Russians do not have the appetite for another hot front. It is unwise & could jeopardize their grand strategy for Ukraine & European theater. Of course that does not give another state actor to harm the lives of the Russian servicemen nor their assets. More importantly they will not want to undermine their strategic position. However they could probably stomach a little incursion to non-Russian lands. In a worse case scenario they will make a strong statement & save face. The Sultan of our century President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in a unique position with unbelievable opportunities in hand. As a wise statesman or the opportunist that he has always been , he did not board the Anti Russia Sanctions ship. He is positioned in a way to help the Sanctioned Russian & Iranian economies to circumvent the Western sanctions. The grain deal he helped broke between the Russians & Ukrainians is evident for the leverage he got. His indispensability gives him a free rein in matters related to Azari-Armenian issues. In turn this works as a life insurance for the President Ilham Aliyev.
The first phase of this is the usual misinformation by the Turkish led media outlets reporting unprovoked attacks on the state border of Azerbaijan. This gets amplified across social media platforms making it to look as if Azerbaijan is in fact the victim & the Armenians are the aggressor. This method has been used time again with varied success. Then the world witnessed a military buildup of the Azaris with trucks painted with a letter A. This would certainly bring the pre war memory of Russian military columns painted with mystery signs closer to Ukraine. Will an all out breaking of hostilities take place now? Well not at this stage. This is probing the reactions of all the stakeholders. Calculating the risks, assessing the circumstances. These kinds of events could take place across Karabakh for the next foreseeable future until Azerbaijan sees the most opportune time to finish the business they started. Will the Russian strategy of making the Karabakh issue a deep frozen conflict until the time is ripped will be tested sooner than later. This will be the first phase of a long game !
The world is marching unstoppable towards a nuclear holocaust
We are all going to die some day anyway so whats the problem?
Azerbaijan = garbage
Azerbeijan is oil money. It can buy all the high tech weapons it needs from Israel. Israel will sell it’s own mother for a few extra bucks.
Azerbaijan 💪
Jealousy can kill James boy
The turkish terror and targeting of civilians, Churches, private homes will not stop until anybody put an end to them once and for all. Nobody is helping Armenia (not even a Christian country in site), even Ukraine and such “Christians” supported and armed azerbayjan in their attack against Armenia. Not that they don’t have enough support from turkey, israel, pakistan, Syrian mercenaries more or less all satanic garbage you can think of. Someone must step up to the plate and stand with the oppressed, God willing.
“MUH KRIS CHAN CUNTREE!”
I hope the Azeris now pick up where Enver Pasha left off.
Total axper death!
Holy armor you can do it. stop 🛑 this Turkish terror everybody relying on you God willing you can do it go on
I am generally anti-war, but I hate this war (Nagorno-Karabakh) especially. I hate it so much. It is so unnecessarily violent, and it is such a huge roadblock to the peaceful development of the entire region.
This war is one of the most Jewish things I have seen in my life, right up there with the Klown of Kiev and his 100,000 white Christians he has sent to the grinder thus far.
Iran absolutely must step in and broker some sort of deal. Russia is occupied, and nobody else will do anything. I pray that Khamenei can do something.
Armenia’s long term future is guaranteed as an autonomous region inside Iran. Iran itself has quite a large Armenian population. If they don’t Armenia will cease to exist in 10-20 years.
Interesting idea
nobody
The assumption of the author of this short essay is wrong from its bottom. Russians are not afraid of waging wars on several fronts simultaneously. Azeris, even with Erdogan backingthem, are like microbes under microscope. I smell here a subtle, Americunt propaganda. Whoever is the author of this fantasy my suggestion to him is “mind your collapse which is happening everywhere in US shrinking geopolitical perimeter.” Vot tak !
I think you are right. Here is another article of him. Check for your self whether he is an Americunt or an independent thinker before branding him though.
https://asian-reviews.com/2022/06/30/from-susha-declaration-to-allied-interaction-the-azerbaijani-quandary-by-dhanuka-dickwella/
Thank you for the link. I read both articles three times. You are right. I retract from labelling the article as “Americunt propaganda”, but I firmly stand by my conviction the author´s main thesis “frozen conflict in the Caucasus which will be going on for a long time (in which the Turks and Azeris are playing in the same league as Russia))” in the article for the SF is mistaken from the beginning and the last paragraph just nailed it. The military doctrine of the USSR had prepared country for a simultaneous war with the West and China. Western “experts” say that the present Russia is weaker than its predecessor. I disagree. Speaking about real military might and capacities including technologies and military industry, not about projections of power based on media stunts like in the case of the UK, I see only two global players – Russia and the United State. Erdogan and his project of a neo-Ottoman Empire is out of the pack of the two, his Azeri pawns even less despite their regional geo-eonomic importance. China has recently blinked and demonstrated that she is not ready to follow the same road as Russia and cut the ties with the West. Russians had been accustomed for centuries to wage wars for her survival. She knows what a real war look like. She can play political-diplomatic games elegantly, but she is ready to ruthlessly switch to full-scale war mode anytime. As Vespasian once said: “If you want to eat omelette, you must break some eggs.” Readiness to have it done makes the difference between the Russians and the rest.
You are completely wrong. This article has a good and fair analysis of the Azari geo-political situation.
And while Russia could intervene, it’s not in its interests to do so right now: it would look like the western propaganda is right when they call Putin an imperialist warlord that wants to conquer all neighbors.
Yes, Russia no longer cares what the West thinks, but Russia cares a lot about what the rest of the World thinks.
That’s why Russia won’t intervene anywhere else. Only in Ukraine. For that reason, Finland and the Baltics are 100% safe, and Turkey (in Syria) and Azerbaijan (in Artsakh aka Nagorno-Karabakh) are off the hook.
Also, Russia is a big country that needs to be defended everywhere, has peace keeping missions or military presence in a few places (Artsakh, Pridnestrovia/Transnistria, Mali, Syria, South Ossetia, Abekhasia), and has a big military intervention in Ukraine that takes at least 110 BTG, which is a huge part of Russian combat ready groups WITHOUT conscription activated.
Also, Azerbaijan is a partner of Russia as Armenia is. Russia’s best interest is to de-escalate the situation, do the peace-keeping mission, be neutral enough and mediate the conflict in order to mantain good diplomatic/economic relations with both countries.
And there’s a rumor that Russia fired a missile towards an Azerbaijan’s uninhabited area in order to make a warning against escalation and force the peace agreements of the 2020 conflict. If that’s true, there’s nothing stopping Russia from repeating it in order to stop the Azari tantrum. Or probably just one phone call from the Kremlin will be enough this time.
Finally, just because someone doesn’t see the world exactly as you see, that doesn’t mean they are propagandists from the other side.
I have said what I wanted to say and have nothing to add.
Tommy Sawyer use Azeri oil w dildo
Absolute silence from Iran.
I am still wondering why the Russians, Iranians and Armenians have not organized a medium sized gas station explosion in Azerbaijan to show Aliyev that he is not so great. Aliyev is being A NATO wh*re again attempting to give Russia a second front which cannot be allowed to stand. Again blowing up something there would get EU globalists scratching their heads and plucking hair implants. Russia and Iran would sell more gas
Armenia is also a NATO whore. Ask on YouTube how many times they staged a Maidan against Russia, provocations against Russian soldiers against Russian bases, against Russians in Armenia? Find out if Russians remained in Armenia? in addition, the Armenians in Russia serve the Jews, at their behest they demand that Sochi be given to them, and then the Jews will be taken away from them. And lastly, Russia has no borders with Armenia, it does have borders with Azerbaijan.
Aliev’s forces took some heights overlooking the Lachin corridor. The corridor is threatened and can be closed easily from these positions. There are no Russian peacekeepers in the mountains.
What is happening might be Aliev and Erdogan trying to beat Armenians into giving concessions. Karabakh is not as important for them as a direct path from Turkey to Caspian sea and central Asia. They attempted to take this land (the so-called Zangezur corridor, the most southern part of Armenia along Iranian border) by force but got warned by Iran. Taking it by war is out of picture because Iran will go to war to keep the border with Armenia intact.
Now what if they manage to make Armenians giving this land “voluntarily”? By threatening to cut off and isolate all the Armenian population in Karabakh, Armenia has to do what it can to save them. That is short of war, as happened the last time of course. What Iran can say and do about it if Armenia signs it give the land to them willingly? By international law and norms, neither us nor Russians can even protest though everybody knows what they are doing.
At the same time, they tried to force Iran into inaction with the attack on Aliev’s embassy in London. A group of “Shi’a people” attacked the building and pulled down the Aliev’s flag. Baku immediately accused Iran for it to put Iran into a diplomatic defence. A few hours later -with footage coming out- it was clear they are the same people who attacked the Iranian embassy sometime ago. They are what we call “the English Shi’as” whose main enemy IS Iran. Talking about false flags, a lame one.
If they take the land, there’s a direct and easy path for transport and more importantly, gas and oil pipelines from Baku to beyond Turkey. The next phase would be forcing pipelines under Caspian waters to bring Central Asia’s gas and oil to Europe easily and cheaply. In addition to that, bye-bye land section of INSTC (why do you think instead of using the existing network of roads and railways connecting Iran to Russia via Baku by land, the INSTC started using the Caspian sea route while both parties need to create infrastructure and ships to facilitate the volume and it means 2 times more loading and unloading the said volume?). A path to central Asia bypassing China, Iran and Russia.
It seems the next wars will be fought over corridors and pipelines, just like the last ones.
It is so rare to see a comment like this anymore. If you disagree or give more info about a subject that is not in line with most common people here, they call you a bot or a troll.
Thank you. Collective mindset triggering aside, disappearing comments don’t help either. recently I find myself rarely check SF and seldom write. We used to have discussions here, long ones which we learnt a lot from. Look at me, nagging like a crotchety old timer!
The sad part is that the SF team is not helping us or I should say themselves.
SF’s mods are hiding any criticism they see in the comment section, be it if the comment is pro-imperialism, pro-war, and hell even if you have a small criticism toward them. Have you seen their “game”?
I had a few things to say about it, but they disagree and hide my comment. I just said why they include the LGBT flag in there and the common people here just attack me for it. I guess I was wrong, my bad didn’t know the LGBT community was part of “Neo-Nazis” in UA.
I also might have questioned why they were dehumanising the whole population of Ukraine – something that the West is known to do before their illegal wars.
The comment section is boring and at this point, it is just copy-paste comments. People just love to repeat themselves and point out the norms, as if no one else said them before.
If you disagree with someone or criticise selective countries – you become an outcast. (What did Biden call MBS, oh a pariah).
I don’t know why I’m bothering you, well it was nice to see an old timer.
You Have My Sincere Sympathy’s For Your Country@IRAN,As to What Can Your Country’s leadership do to Stop Armenia from Caving into Azeri-Turkish-Blackmail?!.JUST THIS LET THEM TALK TO COMRADE PUTIN AND CONVINCE HIM OF IRANIAN PLUS SYRIAN FULL COMMITMENTT TO JOIN THE RFR-CSTO TREATY-PACT,THEN ENCOURAGE HIM TO ORDER RFR-COVERT-AZERI &ARMENIAN-PRO RUSSIAN-MILITARY ASSET’S TO OVERTHROW BOTH THE AZERI AND ARMENIAN REGIME’S AND INSTALL PRO-RUSSIAN-LOYALIST NEO SOVEIT CSTO-SHENGHEN TREATY PACT MILITARY REGIME’S!! THAT’S ALL!!.
Thank you. Iran has its own leverages and solutions in regard to both Armenia and Baku. There’s really no need for a coup. I think in a few years the pieces will fall in their places smoothly and people north of Aras river will be free of that horrible family. Iran and Russia recognize eachother’s legitimate interests in southern Caucasus and will work harmoniously to achieve the goal.
well written and objective… thank you..the incompetent fool Pashinyan is not capable of effective diplomacy and is likely a traitor….he blocks the full impact of the powerful diaspora…… corrupt laundromat Aliev is Erdo’s poodle bitch… this issue will be determined by Iran/Russia and Turkey and agitated by ZioWest to open more fronts against Russia….can only hope Putin will stop embracing the zios from when he got his wealth….best hope for Armenia is Iran
Azerbaijan is doing what it is doing because it thinks it can. “2nd strongest” army of the world being stuck in trenches doesn’t really help Azerbaijan to think otherwise. Neither does Iran’s inability to guarantee the safety of their own people in their own territory. Some may like it some not but results are obvious, facts are facts, Azerbaijan did what it did (not the 1st time) with absolute impunity.
Me parece oportuno que Irán intensifique su cooperación con Armenia en lo técnico militar de esta manera podría contrarrestar la influencia Turca sobre Azerbaiyán, para que no pueda lograr sus planes expansionistas del Panturquismo en la region de esta manera Rusia debería de colaborar más estrechamente con Irán en los temas del Caucaso, ya que está ocupado en su operación especial en Ucrania.
SF filtering some comments again 😉
Indeed, nothing worth it is let thru. Same everywhere seems to be.
This conflict isn’t only a Russian involvement, you have to remember that Azerbaijan is also close with Israel which draws in an Iranian involvement, in fact, Iran is more concerned with Armenia’s territorial integrity than Russia or the Armenian government are. in fact last month Ayatollah Khamenei personally warned Erdogan to his face, when he and Putin visited Iran for the talks, that Iran wouldn’t accept border changes with Armenia, and later it was reported that Iran continued to transport a large number of armaments to the border with Azerbaijan.