The Gates to Zaporizhzhia: Why The Battle for Uspenivka Has Strategic Significance

Units of the Russian 5th Combined Arms Army have consolidated their positions in Uspenivka. The Russian army has resumed its advance near the Kleban-Byk Reservoir in the Konstantynivka sector. John Healey, the UK Defence Secretary and head of the «Coalition of the Willing», stated that they are prepared to ensure a ceasefire when the political conditions for it arise.

Sumy Sector

The «North» grouping’s missile and artillery units carried out strikes against Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) positions in support of advancing assault units. The AFU is reportedly strengthening their defensive positions by redeploying engineering units, including personnel from the 26th Separate Dnipro Bridge-Building Brigade, to compensate for infantry shortages.

On the right flank, units of the «North» grouping advanced approximately 100 meters through the tree lines and subsequently consolidated their positions. Three attempts by AFU combat groups to advance in the areas of Andriivka, Kondrativka, and Varachyno were thwarted by fire. Furthermore, missile units struck positions in the Katerynivka area in the Tetkino and Hlushkivka sectors of the front.

Kharkiv Sector

Most of the activities are concentrated in the Vovchansk area and the surrounding border territories. Russian assault units are continuing operations on the left bank of Vovchansk and expanding their control zone in the Khatne sector. In the southern part of Vovchansk, Russian units have advanced 400 meters and consolidated their positions in 25 buildings. The capture of servicemen from the AFU 127th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade has been reported.

In the forested area near Synelnykove, Russian forces advanced 150 meters. In the Melove-Khatne sector, assault groups operating along tree lines advanced by 700 meters towards the Russian border. Russian Aerospace Forces aviation, «Geran-2» attack drones and TOS-1A heavy flamethrower systems were employed to strike AFU positions in the Hryhorivka, Pidsredne and Dvorichna areas.

Pokrovsk Sector

Russian units have consolidated their positions in the west and east of Pokrovsk and are engaged in combat in the northwest, center and northeast of the city. According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, 13 attacks from the Hrishyne area were repelled during the day, along with three attempts by units of the AFU’s 425th Assault Regiment to break out from the Pokrovsk area in a northern direction.

The mopping-up operation of AFU positions in the eastern part of Pokrovsk’s Tsentralnyi district and the western industrial zone is ongoing. In Myrnohrad, Russian forces are advancing towards the «Zakhidnyi» microdistrict. Western publications highlight the challenging circumstances faced by the AFU in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, emphasizing Kyiv’s decision to maintain control of the area for as long as possible by utilizing all available reserves.

Konstantynivka Sector

In Konstantynivka itself, Russian forces are advancing slowly through the built-up area of the Santurynivka district, with forward groups operating near the railway station. To the west, in the Ivanopillya area, Russian forces have displaced Ukrainian troops from several tree lines and have taken up new positions within the settlement, liquidating the «pocket» near Pleshcheivka.

Meanwhile, Russian attacks have begun near the Kleban-Byk Reservoir. Assault groups are advancing along the western shore of the reservoir towards the intersection of the H-20 and T-05-04 highways. Securing this intersection would allow Russian forces to open a new axis of advance against Konstantynivka and push AFU units back from the northern shore of the reservoir.

Kupyansk Sector

Operations to reduce the encircled Ukrainian forces continue. The Russian Ministry of Defense reported that an attempt by the AFU’s 116th Mechanised Brigade to break out of the encirclement to the west had been thwarted. Furthermore, an AFU assault group’s attempt to break through to a destroyed crossing over the Oskil River in the area of the Petrivka settlement, with the aim of restoring it, was prevented.

Over the past day, Ukrainian units have made several attempts to break the blockade of their forces in the Kupyansk area. Reports have emerged of the repulsion of three attacks by the AFU’s 144th Mechanized Brigade, 92nd Assault Brigade and 15th National Guard Brigade in the Nechvolodivka and Blahodatne areas.

Click to see full-size map.

Zaporizhzhia Sector

Russian units continue to conduct offensive operations in the Orikhiv and Stepnohirsk sectors. In the direction of Huliaipole, units of the Russian 5th Combined Arms Army, which is part of the «Vostok» grouping, have consolidated their positions in the Uspenivka settlement and are finishing up with clearing operations in the Skladove area. They are advancing on a broad front on the western bank of the Yonchur River.

In the 29th Army’s area of responsibility, advances were noted north of Oleksandropil and northwest of Vyshneve towards Oradove, penetrating over a kilometer into AFU defenses. Reconnaissance units from the 37th Guards Motorized Rifle Brigade, operating within the 36th Army’s area of responsibility, crossed the Yonchur River and attacked Ukrainian positions in the Rybne area.

Conclusion

The operational situation on the main fronts is defined by continued high-intensity hostilities. In the Sumy and Kharkiv sectors, Russian units are advancing methodically and expanding their control zones while maintaining fire pressure on the AFU’s defenses. The key area of tension remains the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad agglomeration, where intense urban combat is ongoing and Russian forces are fending off multiple counterattacks while simultaneously clearing districts. In the Konstantynivka area, there has been progress in the suburbs, setting the conditions for future operations. In the Kupyansk area, the situation remains tense with Ukrainian units attempting to break the siege of their forces, which has so far been unsuccessful. In the Zaporizhzhia region, Russian troops are consolidating their tactical gains in the Uspenivka area.

The settlement of Uspenivka is strategically important as control of the area provides a direct operational prospect for launching an offensive towards Huliaipole and further west, bypassing the main AFU fortified areas. Given the confirmed advance of Russian units within the settlement itself, their successful repulsion of counterattacks and their establishment of control over adjacent territories, there are solid preconditions for the full consolidation of Russian forces in Uspenivka in November, provided that the current dynamics of combat operations persist.

Discussions about potential settlement paths continue on the international stage. Commenting on the situation, UK Defence Secretary John Healey stated that Donald Trump is a figure who could persuade Vladimir Putin to come to the negotiating table and potentially end the hostilities. Healey referred to Trump’s previous success in negotiating a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. The minister emphasised that the «Coalition of the Willing», which he leads and comprises Ukraine’s allies, has operational headquarters in Paris and regularly updates its plans to be ready to intervene and ensure a ceasefire when the political conditions for it arise.

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