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The Krasnyi Lyman “Pocket”: Russian Troops Are Tightening the Noose Around the City

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In the direction of Slavyansk, Russian units have capturing Karpovka and expanded the bridgehead on the right bank of the Nitrius River. They continue to push Ukrainian units out of Reznykivka, Nykyforivka, and Holubivka and are approaching the key defensive stronghold in Rai-Oleksandrivka. In the Zaporizhzhia area, the situation remains complex in Orestopil, Ternove, and Priluky, where the two sides’ positions are intermixed. However, the pace of Ukrainian attacks is gradually decreasing. On the Kupyansk front, Russian troops have broken through two kilometers south of Kucherivka, threatening the Ukrainian units in the northern part of the village with operational encirclement. In the Sumy area, the “North” group advanced 800 meters, destroying an assault group of the 253rd “Arei” regiment and cutting off Ukrainian units’ aerial logistics in the Sadky area. In the Kharkiv area, Russian assault groups advanced through forested areas near Starytsia and Vovchanski Khutory. They struck the 159th Brigade’s positions in Kolodeznoe and Prykolotne with air power. Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade Péter Szijjártó stated that Budapest will block the 20th package of EU anti-Russian sanctions until the transit of oil via the Druzhba pipeline resumes.

Slaviansk Direction
In the direction of Slovyansk, Russian troops are advancing confidently towards the Siverskyi Donets–Donbas Canal. The most intense clashes are unfolding near Rai-Oleksandrivka, the location of the last major Ukrainian defensive stronghold on the left bank of the canal.

In the Slaviansk-Kramatorsk area, Russian troops are advancing. After taking control of Pryvollye, they are advancing along the highway towards Slaviansk, driving Ukrainian units out of several strongpoints. Russian troops are clearing Holubivka, which is mostly under their control. The “South” grouping is fighting in Nykyforivka and advancing closer to Fedorivka Druha. The total area advanced by Russian units in this sector amounts to 3.5 square kilometers.

Units of the “South” troop grouping are pushing Ukrainian units out of Reznykivka. Assault groups are repelling counterattacks and attempting to reach a large stronghold between Kalenyky and Kryva Luka. To the south, Russian assault groups pushed Ukrainian units back from a strongpoint near Nykyforivka. They soon established control over the center of the settlement and raised the state flag. Clashes continue on the northern outskirts of the village, where Ukrainian troops remain.

Russian troops are slowly but surely advancing toward Rai-Oleksandrivka. Capturing this settlement would not only deprive Ukrainian units of an important transport hub on the left bank of the canal, but also open the way to Mykolaivka. The Sloviansk Thermal Power Plant is located there and powers the Kramatorsk agglomeration.

In the Krasnyi Lyman sector, Russian units have recaptured several strongpoints near Krasnyi Lyman. West of Stavky, the offensive is advancing through farmsteads in an attempt to close the “pocket” in the Shablyn Yar area. The northern part of Drobysheve has become a “grey zone.” Ukrainian forces have strengthened their position in eastern Yarova, pushing back Russian troops on two streets in Novoselivka. Meanwhile, attempts to reach the road to Sosnove, located north of Svyatohirsk, continue. In Aleksandrivka, Russian units have consolidated their position in the west, while fighting continues in the east.



Zaporizhzhia Direction
In the direction of Zaporizhzhia, Ukrainian units are continuing their attempts to expand the wedge in the Orestopil area. There is visual confirmation of a Ukrainian breakthrough into Ternove — at least two armored vehicles entered the village and dropped off troops. The western outskirts of Ternove remain in a “gray zone,” and Russian units are still present in the eastern part.

Due to delays in publishing video materials and unstable weather conditions, the current configuration of the front remains uncertain in this sector. Similar ambiguity persists across the entire territory from Ternove to Orestopil, where the positions of both sides are intermingled.

In Priluky, located to the south, the situation remains complex. The village is not under stable control by either side and has been an arena of heavy fighting for the past month. Ukrainian units are attempting to consolidate their position in the village’s central area, but they are dispersed by drone and artillery strikes from the “East” grouping.

Despite the information noise, the pace of offensive actions by Ukrainian units is gradually decreasing. The Ukrainian side has achieved only limited results in its attempt to push Russian troops back beyond the Haichur River and buy time to build a new defense line on Verkhnia Tersa by committing significant reserves.



Sumy Direction

In the Sumy region, units of the “North” grouping are advancing deeper, forcing the Ukrainian side to transfer reserves to other sectors of the front. Russian aviation and “Geran-2” strike drone crews are intensifying their attacks. Ukrainian units are strengthening reserve defensive lines and attempting to disable civilian infrastructure in the Kursk and Bryansk regions.

There has been no supply for a week in tree plantations in the Sadky area, where the Ukrainian 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade is positioned. Russian units have cut off aerial logistics, and delivery using ground-based robotic systems is impossible as well.

Assault units of the “North” grouping continue to advance in the Sumy, Krasnopillia, and Hlukhiv districts. The total advance on 13 offensive sectors over the day amounted to up to 800 meters.

In the Krasnopillia district, Ukrainian units and an assault group from the 253rd Separate “Arie” Assault Regiment attempted to advance toward Russian troop positions in the Pokrivka area. Reconnaissance detected the movement in advance, and the group was destroyed by comprehensive fire engagement.

In the Tetkino and Hlushkivka sectors, Russian Aerospace Forces aviation destroyed the Ukrainian 115th Separate Territorial Defense Brigade’s positions in the Iskryskivshchyna area.



Kharkiv Direction
In the direction of Kharkiv, the “North” grouping’s assault groups are advancing deeper into the region with heavy fighting, supported by artillery and “Solntsepyok” heavy flamethrower systems.

In the forests near Starytsia, Russian units advanced 150 meters along two fronts. The Ukrainian side is trying to halt the advance by using drones extensively. In the Symynivka area, Russian units are clearing the forest southwest of the settlement. Russian aviation continued to attack concentrations of Ukrainian 58th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade personnel.

There were no significant changes in Vovchanski Khutory; Russian assault groups advanced 100 meters eastward. In the Kharkiv sector, Russian Aerospace Forces operational-tactical aviation crews struck concentrations of Ukrainian 159th Separate Mechanized Brigade personnel and weapon and military equipment parking areas in the Kolodezne, Prykolotne, and Shypovate areas.



Kupyansk Direction
On the Kupyansk front, Russian units made a significant breakthrough on the left bank of the Oskol River. They advanced two kilometers south of Kucherivka, approaching the outskirts of the village. The Ukrainian units in the northern part of Kucherivka are in operational semi-encirclement; the corridor for a possible withdrawal is only 500 meters wide.

Small groups of Russian infantry are operating in the Radkivka and Kondrashivka areas on the northern flank, pinning down Ukrainian unit maneuvers. Intensive clashes continue on the eastern bank of the Oskol River in the Kupyansk-Uzlovoi area, particularly around Petropavlivka and Pishchane.

Conclusion
Analysis of the operational situation indicates a continued high tempo of offensive actions by Russian units in all directions. In the direction of Slavyansk, Russian troops have captured Karpovka and expanded the bridgehead on the right bank of the Nitrius. They are creating conditions for the operational envelopment of the Slavyansk defense node from the south. They are also approaching the key fortified area in Rai-Oleksandrivka and advancing along the highway towards Slavyansk. In the Zaporizhzhia area, Ukrainian units have had some local tactical successes in the Ternove area, but the overall offensive potential of the Ukrainian side is decreasing due to incurred losses and the continuing uncertainty of the front line. In the Kupyansk area, a successful Russian advance toward Kucherivka has placed a Ukrainian unit grouping on the verge of encirclement, which could result in the collapse of their defenses on the left bank of the Oskol River. In the Sumy area, the “North” grouping is systematically expanding its control zones, cutting off Ukrainian units’ logistics and reserves. In the Kharkiv area, Russian troops are systematically improving their tactical position in forested areas and settlements while striking rear targets.

An important event in the international political context was the statement by Péter Szijjártó, the Hungarian Minister of Foreign Affairs and Trade, about Budapest’s intention to block the 20th package of European Union anti-Russian sanctions. In an address on X, Szijjártó emphasized that Hungary will not allow decisions important to Kyiv to move forward until Ukraine resumes oil transit via the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary and Slovakia. Both countries have been without supplies since January 27. According to the Hungarian portal Mandiner, Ukraine is not resuming transportation due to damage to the facility caused by Russian attacks. However, Budapest considers this damage to be politically motivated.

This statement exacerbates the energy standoff between Kyiv and Budapest, which has already resulted in Hungary and Slovakia suspending diesel fuel exports to Ukraine and Hungary blocking the EU loan to Kyiv worth 90 billion euros. Hungary’s position demonstrates that EU member states are willing to use their veto power to protect their national interests, creating serious risks for the unity of European policy regarding Russia and Ukraine. The situation surrounding the Druzhba pipeline is becoming an economic and political lever capable of influencing the speed of decision-making in Brussels and the volume of support provided to Kyiv. While Russian troops advance on the battlefield, internal contradictions within the EU could hinder the mobilization of resources for Ukraine, exacerbating its already dire financial and military situation.


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Jennifer Fincher

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