The Mirage Of Overthrow: An Analysis Of U.S. Regime-Change Projects Against Iran

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USAID alone manages tens of billions of dollars annually and, in coordination with the CIA, is involved in designing and executing “regime change” operations around the world. However, the overall management of these regime change organizations lies with the U.S. Department of State. Here, we take a look at the budgets and programs defined and implemented by these organizations.

The U.S. Department of State manages a wide range of programs. It is the primary civilian agency of the United States responsible for security and refugee-related assistance, and it holds full responsibility for administering the accounts for International Narcotics Control and Law Enforcement (INCLE), as well as programs for nuclear nonproliferation, counterterrorism, demining, and related initiatives under Nonproliferation, Anti-terrorism, Demining, and Related Programs (NADR).

Additionally, it oversees two migration and refugee accounts: the Migration and Refugee Assistance (MRA) and the Emergency Refugee and Migration Assistance (ERMA) funds. Among the Department’s stated policies is ‘countering Iranian influence,’ which is explicitly mentioned in its budget documents.

Another focus area is preventing Iran’s nuclear development, for which specific funding has been allocated. For example, in 2022, $95 million was allocated to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to monitor the nuclear activities of countries such as Iran, Syria, and North Korea, ensuring that such activities do not pose a threat to U.S. interests. The U.S. Department of State, along with the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), funds programs such as the Economic Support Fund (ESF) and AEECA assistance in this regard.

Budget Allocations

The U.S. Department of State has taken positions through several programs against Iran and has allocated funding to these initiatives. Iran is mentioned in six instances of funding allocations by the State Department in the year 2025.

1. Imposing sanctions on Iran and other actors considered threats to so-called international security, with a budget of $26 million allocated for 2025—an increase of $4 million compared to 2024.
2. Increasing funding for programs related to Near Eastern countries and strengthening Jordan and Egypt to counter Iran’s so-called destabilizing activities and to engage in strategic competition with China and Russia, with a budget of $2.5 billion allocated for 2025—a decrease of $41 million compared to 2024.
3. Supporting the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) in efforts to compel Iran, Syria, and North Korea to adhere to their commitments and to prevent the development of their nuclear capabilities, with a budget of $95 million allocated for 2025—the same amount as in 2024.
4. Countering technological threats from Iran and several other countries, and preventing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, with a budget of $72.9 million allocated for 2025—a decrease of $17 million compared to 2024.
5. Providing counterterrorism assistance to confront Iran-aligned forces, including Hezbollah and Hamas, as well as terrorist groups such as ISIS and al-Qaeda, with a budget of $271 million allocated for 2025—a decrease of $3.2 million compared to 2024.
6. Combating terrorism in the West Asia region by strengthening cooperation with Egypt and Jordan, countering alleged Iran’s destabilizing role and regional influence, and eliminating other terrorist groups, with a budget of $5.296 billion allocated for 2025—$12.2 million less than in 2024.

USAID: The Implementer of Influence Projects

Meanwhile, the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) plays a central role in financing and supporting the implementation of U.S. programs in the Middle East. For more than six decades, USAID has been responsible for executing a major portion of the United States’ so-called bilateral development and humanitarian aid. Alongside the Department of State, the agency manages programs such as the Economic Support Fund (ESF), Assistance for Europe, Eurasia, and Central Asia (AEECA), and the Democracy Fund, which primarily support development projects but in reality serve as tools to advance U.S. strategic interests in target regions.

Donald Trump recently described USAID as “run by a bunch of radical lunatics,” while Elon Musk called the agency “a nest of worms” and “a criminal institution” that “deserves to be dismantled.” Musk also criticized the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), referring to it as “a wicked, corrupt, and criminal organization” that “should be shut down.” U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio explained that the budget cuts to these organizations were not due to a shift in foreign policy, but rather because of their failure to carry out their missions.

It appears that this budget suspension is not a shift in the United States’ diplomatic strategy, but rather a clear warning to USAID and NED to reassess their so-called “regime change” operations. Leaked documents and intelligence reports indicate that, in recent years, Washington has allocated tens of millions of dollars to opposition groups, Persian-language media outlets, and activists working against the Islamic Republic. According to a BBC report, more than 30 Iran-focused organizations and media outlets have been affected by the suspension, although the exact names of these entities have not been disclosed.

NED: A Covert Interventionist Organization

An examination of the National Endowment for Democracy (NED), which received $315 million from the U.S. Department of State in 2023, reveals that the organization allocated $2.01 million that year to 14 government overthrow projects in Iran.

The foundation openly acknowledges that recipients of its funding played a key role during the 2022 unrest in Iran, serving as primary sources of information for international media outlets. Moreover, the organization’s website explicitly expresses support for the “Woman, Life, Freedom” protests. As early as the 1990s, Allen Weinstein, one of NED’s co-founders, openly admitted in an interview that many of the activities carried out by NED today were previously conducted covertly by the CIA.

Funds are often transferred through intermediaries or embedded within broader programs under the label of “promoting democracy,” making it difficult to trace direct connections. Public documents—later removed—indicate that the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) invested $4.6 million in 51 separate projects aimed at overthrowing the Iranian government.

Funding Iranian Opposition Media

Recently, Kit Klarenberg, a journalist and researcher, published a confidential invitation from the U.S. Department of State that includes proposals from private contractors and intelligence-linked entities such as NED and USAID. The leaked documents reveal the true nature of these organizations’ activities and highlight the significant impact that the suspension of their programs has had on their global operations.

Klarenberg states that the flow of U.S. government funds—especially through organizations like NED and NERD—remains opaque. This lack of transparency makes it difficult to trace the final destinations of the funding and identify its beneficiaries. The details of these covert operations are systematically concealed, and mainstream media outlets claim the information is kept classified to protect activists from potential harm. Existing documents—later removed—indicate that the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) invested at least $4.6 million between 2016 and 2021 in 51 different counter-revolutionary projects in Iran.

However, only the names of seven recipient organizations have been disclosed. The Abdorrahman Boroumand Center, based in Washington, D.C., is one of the few known recipients, while the remaining 44 continue to remain unidentified.
During the 2022 unrest in Iran, the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) allocated nearly $1 million to projects officially labeled as “human rights advocacy.”

However, none of the participating organizations were identified. The funds were transferred to an unnamed entity tasked with “monitoring, documenting, and reporting human rights violations.” This entity collaborated with individuals inside Iran who referred to themselves as “activists,” aiming to enhance their digital security and propaganda efforts.

Anti-Iranian groups that particularly present themselves as media outlets—such as the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center, Iranwire, BBC Persian, and others—are believed to be among the likely recipients of this covert funding from USAID. Analysts like Hamidreza Gholamzadeh also point out that organizations such as the Iran Human Rights Documentation Center (IHRDC), Tavaana, and the Boroumand Center have likely received funding from NED, while Iranwire is believed to have been funded directly by the U.S. Department of State.

A glimpse of financial support documents for sabotage projects in Iran

Hidden Networks; Repetitive Strategies

Many recipients of foreign funding who may appear anonymous at first can be identified through their interactions with Western actors. Recent reports indicate that Western organizations continue to pursue government overthrow strategies in Iran. Shirin Ebadi, the head of the Defenders of Human Rights Center (DHRC), acted as an operative in destabilization projects targeting Iran and, after fleeing to London in 2009, openly expressed support for overthrowing the Iranian government. A joint report by Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence and the IRGC Intelligence Organization in October 2022 explicitly identified the DHRC as a front for subversive activities backed by the United States under the NERD project.

The report revealed how these networks act as proxies for U.S. government agencies, engaging in media infiltration and inciting social unrest to destabilize Iran.

Late Iranian Brigadier General Mohammad Kazemi provided further details about these operations, disclosing that one exposed project included $550,000 in media funding aimed at inciting ethnic and religious minorities in Iran’s border regions and expanding media coverage of riots. Narges Mohammadi, also a recipient of foreign support, followed a similar path—backing terrorists and separatists under the guise of human rights advocacy. Both Ebadi and Mohammadi received large sums to influence media narratives and support individuals convicted of violent acts.

Iranian security reports have confirmed that these individuals and their affiliated networks are involved in U.S.-backed subversive projects such as NERD. Leaked documents show that millions of dollars have been spent on inciting ethnic and religious minorities within Iran. Western tactics for provoking unrest include promoting fringe figures, portraying them as victims, and using them for geopolitical purposes. Iranian intelligence reports, as well as Western sources such as The Grayzone and The Cradle, indicate that organizations like NED and NERD play a central role in funding these operations. Despite repeated exposures, this pattern continues to repeat itself under new names and faces.

These findings align with Kit Klarenberg’s investigative report for The Cradle, which revealed leaked documents related to the NERD project— a U.S. initiative aimed at recruiting and training “emerging women leaders and ethnic minorities” to lead activist movements in Iran. The report also exposed how millions of dollars were funneled through NED between 2016 and 2021 to strengthen counter-revolutionary networks. One of the program’s key objectives was reportedly to “encourage lawyers and clerics to advocate for democratic reforms.” Despite the exposure of these tactics, the pattern continues to repeat itself—merely under new names and fresh media campaigns designed to stir discontent and destabilize independent nations.

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