Illustrative image
DEAR FRIENDS. IF YOU LIKE THIS TYPE OF CONTENT, SUPPORT SOUTHFRONT WORK :
MONERO (XMR): 8332UX6Ero53cnz2dKzmfRYtDa5DZ9wRsBfKHcYPHzTvBTTSgLGaC8f8Eo8QsmaoRsCosURvfjv4uiyFcm2WHEf5TfuRYY9
BITCOIN (BTC): bc1q2u872wf5t6tunuzxc5jq6wzz5jwr3ew2q8htxw
BITCOIN CASH (BCH): qqrjde2cq9g473687utlwh4p7ngdaacca5wdraxatl
PAYPAL, WESTERN UNION etc: write to info@southfront.org , southfront@list.ru
Written by Cato for SouthFront
Now that we are just over 24 hours into the Russian Federation’s initiation of armed intervention on a massive scale in Ukraine, I wanted to take the opportunity to write down my initial thoughts and brief strategic analysis. At this point there is so much that is unclear, and much of this has to do with Russian EW efforts in the theater of operations (which encompasses most of the territory of Ukraine). There is also quite a bit of distraction/disinformation being utilized by both the Kiev regime and the Russian Armed Forces for varying reasons. Coupled with other elements of its attack, Russia will use the fog of war to its advantage, while Ukraine will attempt to paint as positive a picture as possible to mislead the public and its potential allies.
I’ll start by stating that despite the varying media commentary to the contrary, the official recognition of the self-proclaimed Donetsk Peoples Republic and the Luhansk Peoples Republics by Russian president Vladimir Putin was a long-drawn-out inevitability. The Russian leadership undoubtedly came to the correct conclusion that there was no point in attempting to negotiate with the US or NATO regarding their security concerns, legally binding security treaties, or even the successful resolution of the Minsk II Agreement. The final decision to conduct a military operation to liquidate the security threat to Russia that has grown in strength in Ukraine under the full patronage of US and NATO countries over the past eight years is no longer tenable.
At such an early stage in operations it is hard to make any detailed analysis of the Russian battle plan, only broad assumptions; however, a great deal has happened in the first 24 hours. The Russian naval and aerospace forces first suppressed and then effectively destroyed the Ukrainian air defense network, its military aviation on the ground, and eliminated its small navy in short order. This was achieved under an extensive EW umbrella that rendered command and control impossible by modern technical means. Precision munitions launched by Russian aircraft and cruise missiles employed by vessels of the Black Sea Fleet and the Caspian flotilla targeted and knocked out strategic leadership and command and control targets.
Strong forces of the Donetsk and Lugansk Peoples Republics engaged the Ukrainian Armed Forces all along the Line of Contact from the outset. They have continued to do this, while achieving minor breakthroughs in two areas, Lopaskino in the North and Nikolaevka/Viktorovka in the South. While I believe that the DPR/LPR forces will exploit any breakthroughs, their real objective is to keep the UAF forces in place and engaged as much as possible. They will act as the anvil that the Russian hammer will strike the UAF against. Highly mobile armored formations attacking out of the proximity of Kursk and Belgorod southwest towards Kharkov and Sumy will likely form the northern pincer of envelopment, while similar forces advancing out of the Crimean Peninsula will form the southern pincer. These forces will envelope the majority of UAF forces positioned in the East, along and close to the Line of Contact. These forces will be contained and slowly eliminated. Having lost their mobility, they will play no part in confronting further Russian movements within Ukraine.
It is important to stress that the Russians are attacking from several different directions, and this serves a number of purposes. The UAF does not know (now that its command and control capabilities have been handicapped or eliminated) which attacks are the main Russian efforts of advance. This will not allow the UAF to concentrate their forces against a numerically and qualitatively superior opponent. Although diluting the combat power of its forces through multiple efforts, this does give Russia flexibility and more options as the battle unfolds. Their superior numbers and combat power affords them this luxury. Some of these lines of advance are most likely diversionary in nature. Some of these attacks may not actually even be real. The early reports of an amphibious or air assault of Odessa have yet to be verified and may in actuality be a Russian engineered psyop/diversion. Similar to the amphibious feint employed during the first Gulf War, the amphibious assets moved into the Black Sea may be one large diversion to tie up UAF assets that could be better utilized elsewhere. I will believe that an amphibious assault has occurred in Odessa when I see verifiable proof. Naval infantry can be landed by traditional means in captured ports as follow-on forces.
Finally, the northern axis of advance coming from Belarus is meant to put pressure on the military and civilian leadership in Kiev. They are forced to focus energy and military units on checking this threat. The Russian air assault conducted at the Hostomel/Antonov airport has added greatly to this pressure, as it forces the UAF to attempt to eliminate it before it can be significantly enforced. If left to threaten the capital, it will pull needed resources away from confronting the strong Russian forces advancing south from Belarus. I was surprised to see the Russian MOD act so brazenly as to insert airborne infantry so far behind enemy lines, so early in the operation. It could prove to be an extremely decisive and pivotal decision, or a costly gamble.
In closing, the aims of the special operation are to disarm and de-nazify the Ukraine. By enveloping the UAF units supporting and engaged along the LOC, many of the volunteer battalions such as Azov and Aidar will be trapped and can be eliminated. Members of these units that have engaged in crimes against the populace can be identified, tried, and punished for their crimes. Similarly, the successful capture of the capitol will lead to the capture of the political and military leadership that represent the nationalist/neo-nazi paramilitary and political organizations that hold positions of power.
I greatly hope that the Russian political leadership does not intend to occupy large portions of the Ukraine for an extended period of time. They should eliminate the identified threat, destroy Ukraine’s military infrastructure and hardware and return home, as they did in Georgia in 2008. The Donbass Republics should take sovereignty over their full territories and have their military capabilities strengthened. By helping these republics in the long run, improving the quality of life, civilian infrastructure and economy of these friendly areas will form a reliable, secure buffer on Russia’s border.
Invasion coincides with launch of US biolabs?
“The military special operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine coincided in time with the planned launch of American military biological laboratories in Kyiv and Odessa, the Octagon found out. Perhaps this particular launch was the deadline for the Kremlin.
Back in 2017-2018, Russian President Vladimir Putin pointed out the danger of developing biological weapons near the borders of the Russian Federation, and also publicly worried about the “purposeful and professional” collection of Russian biomaterials by foreigners. Then the press actively discussed the possibility of creating a genetic weapon. Genetic technologies in general is a sensitive and topical topic for the president. And these new American-Ukrainian high-tech laboratories specialize in modern biological weapons.
The US Department of Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) in October 2021 published an additional agreement on “the fight against especially dangerous pathogens” on the US government procurement website. The document concerns the final stage of work on the launch of two biological laboratories – in Kyiv and Odessa. It deals with equipment, staff training and commissioning of facilities. The cost of the work is 3.6 million dollars, however, a number of figures in the document are hidden for reasons of secrecy. It also reports more than 90% readiness of laboratories and a seven-month delay in completing the project (we highlighted in red) – from the date of signing the document (July 2021) to the end of February 2022.
The laboratories were built in accordance with the Cooperative Threat Reduction Program. This Pentagon program started in 1991 and is aimed against Russia and the countries of the former USSR. The creation of laboratories was funded under one of the five subprograms – biological (Biological Threat Reduction Program). Active cooperation between Ukraine and the United States in these areas began after the first Maidan Nezalezhnosti, in 2005.
Two new laboratories are being created on the basis of the Kiev State Research Institute for Laboratory Diagnostics and Veterinary and Sanitary Expertise and the Odessa branch of the Ukrainian civil service for food safety and consumer protection. The main part of the Ukrainian collection of endemic strains of pathogens of dangerous diseases is kept in Odessa. The buildings of new biological laboratories in Kyiv and Odessa were built back in 2019, but were not put into operation. The founder of the project is considered to be the former head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Health, Uliana Suprun (a US citizen, therefore she worked in the status of acting), who received the nickname “Doctor Death”. The work under the contract is carried out by an experienced contractor of the US government – the Jacobs group, more precisely, its division CH2M Hill. The need for an additional agreement is justified by additional costs and delay due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The notice makes it clear that this project is important and urgent for the US government: further potential delays are called unacceptable, and “DTRA requires urgent completion and handover of both laboratories in order to ensure the active and safe implementation of the DTRA mission.”
“Both sites are owned and protected by the government of Ukraine, but neither is currently performing active biological work, as DTRA has asked the Ukrainian authorities not to start work until acceptance and completion work is completed,” the procurement materials say. It also talks about the risk that Ukrainian virologists may begin to operate and modify laboratories without the knowledge of DTRA.
The Americans fear that “theft or damage to equipment” is possible from Kyiv and Odessa. And, indeed, individual excesses have already arisen. In the summer of 2021, an employee of the aforementioned Kiev research institute took a sample of a dangerous virus (Newcastle bird disease) out of the institution and kept it in a regular refrigerator in her own apartment, intending to sell it.”
Read more: https://zen.yandex.ru/media/id/5deab49398fe7900b0eae65e/specoperaciia-rf-sovpala-s-zapuskom-voennyh-laboratorii-ssha-na-ukraine-621918595615ef42d414cbeb
Sounds like that employee is solliciting for prosecution.
In Deutschland sehr viele lieben Putin und hassen USA ! Keinen interessiert die Ukraine. Nur wenige wissen wo die überhaupt liegt. In USA keiner kennt Ukraine. Viele wissen nicht wo Europa ist. Aber fast alle kennen Boxer Klitschko und glauben er geht mit Boxhandschuhe kämpfen gegen Russen.
Kiev should be nuked. Make it a glass parking lot.
Only when the sane civilians are evacuated though:)
It’s certainly difficult to get a realistic idea of what’s going on or how the battle is evolving. There is a lot of propaganda out there and the websites I normally check for info are frequently down. I can only assume Ukraine was taken by surprise and an overwhelming superior force, so they will no doubt collapse quickly across the country.
I can only hope there is as few Russian military and civilian losses as possible as they de-nazify the country.
Surely, and also hoping for most neo-nazis to be apprehanded. Anyone’s up to something similar to the Nuremberg trials?
CIAtrolls and ukrobots are crying and raging 🤗🤡
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JCc67pn98Q8 😅
The Russian attack was a bit of a surprise; no media sources reported on any buildup of Russian air power.
The failure to lead with a more thorough shock and awe campaign will make this retaliatory invasion of Ukraine territory far more costly than it needed to be.
The better move would have been to wait NATO out, but then I’m against wars-of-choice.
Exellent attack! Study Sun Dzu “The Art of War”. Russia has my full support and I am from Australia.
Not bad.
Azov and Adair don’t need trials. Just execute all of them. They are the volunteers who spent eight years looting and raping Donbass.
Given the situation in Ukraine and what happened last eight years, the intervention is ethically and morally justified. This comes to a short question to answer: “Is it moral/ethical, to invade a nation of which its government supported radicals, that commit genocide and/or crimes against humanity?”
It is clear that it can and will bring an end to this conflicr. Not to forget that certain laws could be implemented for Ukraine to remember the autrocities of the Nazis. For example, criminalizing denial of genocide. This doesn’t mean that underestimating it should be, but it clearly needs to be acknowledged.
Those neonazis who committed autrocities should be captured, arrested, or if necessary, neutralized. Arresting or capturing are preferable, given the fact that this gives an opportunity to put them on trail after the war has ended; ergo, Ukrainians will see what wasn’t told, and will be given a different view on this issue. For the Russians, or a future Ukrainian government should that happen, I recommend televising these trials live, in order to highlight autrocities.
Remember, something similar to this also happened more than 75 years ago with the Nazis, after Germany lost WW2.
The recognition of the DPR and of the LPR was also a legal necessity, as it was the only way to avoid perpetrating an aggression. It was a violation of binding international law, but a diplomatic one, i.e. it was a diplomatic step, which is what the West had been calling for. Moreover, the West had done the same in the case of Kosovo and Metohia, so the West can hardly complain in any serious, non-ridiculous way.
Good luck and God Speed Russia, wipe out the NeoNazis.
So you admit to what I stated ! Selensky Joo, Merkel Joo, Putin Jew, Nuland Joo Kolomoisky Joo, Baerbock Joo, Berel Lazar Joo. It is the JOOS nobody else. These satanic creatures are the ones mankind needs to fight ! Wake up mankind ! Eradicate this demonic filth from the face of the earth and world peace and pleasure is to come. The parasitic joo-filth needs to gone, cease existing, and mankind will be free. Muslims and christians need to join and to alliance to fight the demonic joos.
Scott Ritter, former UN weapons inspector has a clear and accurate line on this stragetic “Blitz Kreig” by the Russian armed forces. Well worth watching https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GkmdCaBECs
Actually you will see two city incineration terror bomber exceptional’s whining as the caravan of death inexorably rumbles into view.
Viva…Russian.. Time to eliminate UkraiNazism
Dude, stop using word regime for Ukrainian government which is still somewhat democratically elected. If any country in this conflict is regime, it’s Russia. Anyway, despite fast advances, this is terrible underperformance. Any modern army like France for example would demolish invasion like this.
Stfu, sympathising with Nazis makes you a Nazi. Also you admit the regime wasn’t really elected and then you claim it’s Russia who has no popular mandate for his president? One of the most popular heads of state today? Keep your racist filth to yourself, Nazi shit.
SF can you do something about bot and rat infestation? It’s really ridiculous you allow one retarded psychopath (anti comunism, haus rat, atila, perez, jon, star, shlong) to spam moronic gibberish here all day long.
“I greatly hope that the Russian political leadership does not intend to occupy large portions of the Ukraine for an extended period of time.” So why they risking so much? Just to destroy Ukro-military capacity? It can be rebuild in a few years.
You make it sound like a war game out of WW2. It isn’t. Putin has 200,000 men committed to this op. the AFU have 250,000 men. So the Russians have no numerical superiority whatsoever. They have firepower, but are avoiding damaging civilian areas, so the AFU are taking advantage. There is no ‘blitzkrieg’ with ‘highly mobile formations’. This is neither Barbarossa nor Bagration. There is village to village fighting in the Donbas…slow and painful. There is no attack from the north as those troops are needed in the Donbas. After the Donbas is cleared which may take all summer to achieve, the next area of ops will be Odessa to Transnistria. Again slow painful fighting…no blitzkrieg. While all this is going on, NATO will be starting and supplying an insurgency in West Ukraine. That will be tricky for Russia to manage without starting WW3. Putin has to finish this op quickly before becoming bogged down in insurgency. So he has to commit more troops than just the 200,000. But actually its more like 500,000 as, presumably, units will need to be rotated and replaced. Russia army is 1 million men. So half that in the Ukraine. Still not enough to fight the AFU + insurgency. This op is necessary but there are too many unknowns. It certainly isn’t the simplistic wargame described by this author.