ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE
Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at his blog
There is really nothing particularly complicated about what just happened: the AngloZionists have murdered a top Iranian scientist in the hope that this murder will trigger a war. The Iranians have promised a retaliation, but have not taken any action, at least so far.
Since there are those who will inevitably conclude that “Iran cannot do anything“, or “Iran is afraid” or even “Iran should strike Israel“, all I want to do today is to mention a few basic things about deterrence and retaliation. Let’s begin by the former: deterrence.
Deterrence: there are two fundamental ways to deter an enemy: denial and punishment. The first case in infinitely more desirable than the second one. Why? Denial simply means that you can counter-act your enemy’s attack plans by preventing your enemy from achieving success. This is what an air defense system does: it destroys the incoming missile before it reaches the target.
In our case, an effective denial strategy would have been executed by effectively protecting Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and his family from any attacks. It is clear that the Iranians miserably failed at this task. Frankly, I have to say that I find no possible excuse for this: everybody knew for years that Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was on the Israeli hit list thus the Iranian authorities had years to prepare to fully defend him. In truth, that is not as hard as it seems. Yet, all they apparently did, was to provide him with two body guards and what looks to me like a non-armored car. It is also obvious that the attackers knew exactly where his car would drive by and when. Again, this is simply inexcusable. If the Iranian counter-terrorist and counter-intelligence services are so sloppy, then that means that there are many more key Iranian officials which could be killed next. Bottom line: the Iranians have proven that they are not capable of denial.
Hopefully, they have now learned their lesson and that more competent and determined specialists will now be in charge of protecting key Iranian figures.
Even worse is the very strong possibility that some Iranian officials might have been recruited by the AngloZionsts to assist in the execution of the assassination plan. Never say never, but I strongly believe that such assassinations are not possible without local accomplices. Again, this is a question which Iranian security services will have to not only answer, but answer for!
If the Iranians are not capable of denial, then this means that their only option to deter such attacks is punishment.
Can the Iranian punish the US and/or Israel?
Yes, of course they can, but only at the risk of doing exactly that which the AngloZionists want to achieve: give the Empire a pretext for war or, at the very least, a non-symbolic strike on key Iranian facilities (and, possibly, officials).
The key factor to consider here is that the aggregate power of Iran is still much weaker than the aggregate power of the AngloZionist Empire. Like it or not, but this is a fact. Even Russia and China are globally weaker than the Empire, so they all share the same problem: how to deter a stronger party?
In fact, there are options other than immediately responding to the attack.
One option is what the CIA calls “plausible deniability” (the Russian equivalent would be “make sure your ears don’t stick out“): you make sure that there is no way to prove that you took any action. That can be done by using proxys and/or by covert operations.
[Sidebar: I read that the Iranians killed two of the attackers and captured one alive; if that is true, then I bet you that these terrorists were neither US nor Israels but locals, meaning terrorists hired either in Iran or elsewhere in the Middle-East. This is how the CIA always operates, just remember how the CIA engaged in a campaign of car bombing in Lebanon in which local CIA assets were used to plant the bombs. In a typical CIA fashion, these attacks resulted in 83 dead on hundreds of wounded, but missed the intended target: Sheikh Mohammed Hussein Fadlallah].
Another option is what could be called “retaliation by a thousand cuts” – this is what the Iranians are doing to the USA in Iraq: pro-Iranian forces regularly attack US forces and positions, but always below the threshold at which the USA has to take major, public action. This approach can be summed up like so: “surely you will not start a full scale war just over a relatively minor incident?“. Keep the “incidents” “minor” enough and your enemy will be frustrated and unable to articulate an adequate response, especially over time.
Let’s discuss time now. It is said that “revenge is a dish best served cold“. This is true! When the AngloZionists execute a high-risk covert operation they will typically try to get their forces in a higher state of readiness in case of a overt retaliatory strike. But here is the problem: no force or facility can remain at maximum readiness forever. It is too expensive, too complicated, too disruptive of normal operations and, finally, some form or other of boredom sets in. Even better, the primitive attacker will sooner or later conclude that “we dodged that bullet” or “they did not dare attack us“, breathe a sigh of relief and resume normal activities.
Next, comes place/location: if you are the weaker party but you do want to retaliate, not only are you much better off doing that after enough time passes for your adversary to let down his guard, you also can chose to retaliate very far away from where you yourself were attacked. In our case, that means that since the AngloZionist did commit their terrorist act in plain view of the world, you need not to the same thing. Hit them somewhere as far away from their own national territory as possible. The good news is that the AngloZionist Empire has a planet-wide footprint. And, even better, the Empire is really already dead and unable to keep a high state of readiness worldwide. Simply put, there are *a lot* of very easy targets out there, it is quite easy to pick one.
Keep in mind that you do not have to retaliate in kind. If they murder one of your scientists this does not at all mean that you have to murder one of theirs: there are many venues open for retaliation which do not at all require killing anybody: you can retaliate economically, politically and you can also chose to retaliate against any US/Israeli colony out there (of which there are still plenty). How?
For example, the Iranians could retaliate against any so-called any US or Israeli “ally” in the Middle-East and even elsewhere. Remember, the huge footprint of the Empire makes it indefensible and the current political chaos in the USA might be exactly what some of these so-called “allies” need to try to slip from under the US/Israeli control.
In truth, Iran has an options galore!
Yes, Iran will probably not execute and immediate and public action of retaliation similar to what happened following the murder of General Soleimani. Why? Because they don’t have to! The main point of the Iranian counter-strike was to show the world, and especially the US decision-makers, the the US posture in the Middle-East makes it extremely vulnerable to Iranian missile strikes. They don’t need to do this again. In fact, if the logic or the Iranian counter-strike was to show that there would be hell to pay for the US and Israel in case of full scale attack, it would be completely illogical and counter-productive to now do exactly that which could trigger such an attack.
I think that we can be absolutely sure that Iran will retaliate for the murders of Soleimani and Fakhrizadeh, but my guess is that this retaliation will be “served cold” and, probably, in an asymmetrical manner. This has nothing to do with any Iranian “fears” or “weaknesses” and everything to do with the fact that Iranians are superb strategists.
PS: those interested in Iranian covert operations could look into PanAm 103 and how the Iranians used Iraqi exiles to deflect the planned AngloZionist attack on Iran to their mortal enemy next door: Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. I just don’t have the material time to write about these now, but follow the leads and you can find out for yourself what actually happened.
MORE ON THE TOPIC:
- New Details On Brazen Assassination In Iran: Top Nuclear Scientist Was Killed By Remotely-Controlled Machine Gun
- Iran To Boost Nuclear Activity In Response To Top Scientist’s Assassination
- THIS IS WAR. Alleged Head Of Iran’s Nuclear Weapons Program Is Assassinated. Iran Blames Israel (Photos, Videos)
Up to me, a good retaliation move would be securing (they already do) the Chabahar-Mediterranean OBOR commercial road, month after month, year after year : Irak, All-Bukamal, Al-Sukhna. Atlantic powers likes the fact that Iran can access the Mediterranean see by trucks.
Firstly, nuke up asap, learn from NK. Then bomb some selected targets in Israel, like Dimona.
I love some trolls like you, thinking they can just send a nuke over here like it’s some kind of an Amazon package. The ones that upvoted you ain’t smart either.
Coming from a hasbara delinquent teenager that is quite rich :)
I hope Israel and Gaza start war soon both countries have to kill each other ;) :D :P
And how do you expect to prevent that if a salvo of 50-100 ballistic missiles are fired followed by a nuclear strike? David’s sling is a redo of American SAM technology…….which is lacking.
It’s amazing how you can type with your fat stupid head so far up your ass.
If Iran retaliate then i hope it’s by the same means by murdering top Israeli scientists, it’s better then taking the bait that may lead to a war.
Big Fleet Can’t Fly: New U.S. Military Report Shows Aircraft Availability Rates Are Abysmally Low According to a new report from the U.S. Congress Government Accountability Office (GAO), only three of several dozen classes of American military aircraft were able to achieve annual mission capable rate goals the majority of the time between Fiscal Years 2011 and 2019 https://militarywatchmagazine.com/article/big-fleet-can-t-fly-new-u-s-military-report-shows-aircraft-availability-rates-are-abysmally-low
Dont trust EVERYTHING that comes from military sources at war.
Well that is not the case, this time… This is the situation that last for years already. So KUDOS, if they can pretend for such long time on such visible and verifiable subject (“enemy” just have to check by radar the number of sorties with the number of jets in carrier group) Banal statistics.
Sorry but Iran is not Syria, Hezbollah or Hamas….we are not talking about small rockets (unaccurate most of them) and a country (Syria) controlled by Russia…..Iran has thousands of accurate ballistic missile ( 500-750kg of explosive warhead) cruise missile ( 250-500kg explosive) and long range drones….it is enough to destroy main military-industral sites in Israel and enough to deter some Gulf states to support US attacks…I remember when Emir of Qatar went to Teheran after the Irani strikes in US bases…to provide financial aid…
Iran wont be baited by Israels attacks in Syria or killing of its scientist, they will await the outcome of the Trump transition first, any retaliation could be many months away
Its because Iran is hoping that Americans will be sincere next time. If we are just good guys toward Americans some day they will recognize that we are nice guys doing goody doody.
Why wait ? What difference will it make ?
A lot . In the meantime of official delaration of Trump new presidency in case of war pelosi democRAT pelosi could avoc to herself the ” temporay ” leading of usa . This would be useful to stop and destroy the legal process to dismantle democRAT mafia and to declare officially pedo bidet new president with only its 30% of regular votes of still alive people . I hope Donald was able to predict such a move to declare an emergengy state ( state of war ) to impose the election fraud legally . Of course everybody knows if globalists will not accept the results of ekections and will try a coup americans will fight .
You believe the ” Donald ” doesn’t want war with Iran ? That’s rich.
Yes . Trump doesn’ t want any war . We saw it in the last four years . He didn’ t start any new war like did antifa president before him . He frozen all the wars that antifa presidents started before him like didn’ t any antifa president before him . He oppose to fight the people , to kill the people , to reduce population . He opposes feminist infanticides .
Iran has long term plans and will not fall for knee jerk provocations. The Zionists are desperate as the clock is ticking.
yep the Iranians are long on patience and can wait till hell freezes over before eradicating the jews in palestine. the jews on the other hand know that they will be sitting ducks before long and must goad the morons in the white house to do the heavy lifting. the morons however realize that Iran is something else than granada and so on and know that an attack on Iran is tantamount to a defeat, for the morons and saudi arabia and uae and and and – israel however will be a wet spot in the desert sand by that time.
Iran’s long term view is to add to its strong ballistic missile capability with smart purchases of aircraft and surface to air defenses, Kilo subs and some good anti shipping missiles, Oniks or Brahmos.
I read the posts here and laugh . So much creativity to justify the cowardice and impotence of the mullahs regime. Religious fanatics with a 13th-century mentality trying to fight against 21st-century technology and way of thinking.
The USA has fucked so many people around the globe that all they wish for Christmas is a big villain that just shows up – so they can “pose as heroes again” to the fools.
of course, they’ve been at it for at least 30 years, actively at it. disgraceful and the world will be a better place once the jews are kicked to kingdom come and then a bit more, never to return.
If only Temple III could be erected. Then everything would peace and cake.
i surely hope 4 u that this was just sarcasm…….a little hint 4 u if it wasńt……
satan arihman does not tolerate anybody next to him……..so if you DO believe that you are part of the chosen ones……lol….you will end up with the fucking surprise of a lifetime!
the persians no very well, what the future holds……….
a massive war between satanic zionists and their stooges and persia and their block.
There is absolutely nothing that can prevent such a war.zero chances.
And the persians know very well that nuclear weapons will be used against them.”smaller-5-25 kilotons” in the beginning, used against persias military infrastructure. And later during the war, when the ballistic missiles and cruise missiles keep raining down on israel and saudi arabia, bigger nukes with 100+ kilotons against civilian infrastructure.
That is the reason why persia has not yet directly hit back at israel or saudi or US targets in the middle east.From a moral standpoint absolutly understandable.But again, dont take this “logocal” and moral standpoinmt as a sign of weakness…..it is a sign of strengh and maturity.
sadly to write…the morally bankrupt civilizations in europe and the USA have made this all possible….brainwashed with movies and citcoms, braindead from drugs and booze they have literally handed over their nations to evil criminal soulless satanics.
Iran knows fully well that the jews in palestine are drooling over the possibility to use the nukes they’ve used intimidating the neighbouring countries for about 60 years – it won’t make a difference because when they use them that spells the end of not Iran but the jews in palestine. for good. sure lots of people dead but to take out 85 million persians is ot doable so at the end of the day, the jews will be finished and left to rot in the air – no honourable burial for those corrupt criminals.
” the jews will be finished and left to rot in the air ”
Except the ones left in the corridors of power in the rest of the world .
yeah embedded jews in foreign countries but that time, the host governments might just have realized that these embedded jews are the enemy s well nd do something about it.a jewish war employing nukes will not be something any government can avoid doing something about. one thing which should start now is to forbid money-transfers from jews in other states to israel since these jews are fanning and upholding a brutal regime of war criminals. it is not possible for anyone to send money to isis but jews around the world are free to support the jewish criminals in palestine with cash money thus being part of the war crimes executed by the war criminals in tel aviv.
remember churchill who started in the 30s claiming that hitler’s ambitions were dangerous and meant war – today only Iran have taken such churhillian view against the jews in palestine and they are right to do so. it is of imperative importance that the world realizes that palestinian jews are no better than hitler and start doing something about it or the world will have a nuclear war before long.
” one thing which should start now is to forbid money-transfers from jews in other states to Israel ” Yes, there are many things that need to be done but they never are, so ultimately this is just another hypothetical. If a government could actually halt money transfers to Israhell it could also probably do a lot of other needed things. Much more effective things.
Israel and its racist supremacist global Jewish satanic slave empire dictatorship is rapidly losing the peace big time.
Iran, China Russia etc., just have to keep things as they are.
Racist Jews are happy to fight to the last stupid Goyim and don’t care about their Goyim slaves suffering.
Russia, China, Iran etc. need to strengthen their payment systems with the EEU, to bypass and crush SWIFT and the Zionist Federal Reserve Jewish dollar, which will be the biggest defeat for racist Jewish supremacy since Lincoln abolished the Jewish slave trade of blacks in the Americas. Russia also needs to strengthen its economy and military etc. as does China etc. That is why Israel is starting wars with Syria North Korea, Libya, Yemen, Sudan etc because Jews think wars are their only hope to maintain their racist empire.
As long as current trends continue Iran, Russia and China etc., are best to keep doing as they are.
May try to get Saudi Judea Arabia to stop selling oil in Zio dollars. This would end the Zio dollar and the Zio empire immediately .
Once the Jewish Federal Reserve dollar and SWIFT collapse Israel’s economy and military will collapse rapidly without having to fire a single shot.
The Saker is a wise fellow and I tend to agree with nearly everything he says, but he did make one contradictory claim in this article, he said this,
“This has nothing to do with any Iranian “fears” or “weaknesses” and everything to do with the fact that Iranians are superb strategists.”
But earlier on he said this,
“In our case, an effective denial strategy would have been executed by effectively protecting Mohsen Fakhrizadeh and his family from any attacks. It is clear that the Iranians miserably failed at this task. Frankly, I have to say that I find no possible excuse for this: everybody knew for years that Mohsen Fakhrizadeh was on the Israeli hit list thus the Iranian authorities had years to prepare to fully defend him. In truth, that is not as hard as it seems. Yet, all they apparently did, was to provide him with two body guards and what looks to me like a non-armored car. It is also obvious that the attackers knew exactly where his car would drive by and when. Again, this is simply inexcusable. If the Iranian counter-terrorist and counter-intelligence services are so sloppy, then that means that there are many more key Iranian officials which could be killed next. Bottom line: the Iranians have proven that they are not capable of denial.”
I know I’m just being picky but the Saker should’ve added this to his first comment that I’ve quoted,
“This has nothing to do with any Iranian “fears” or “weaknesses” and everything to do with the fact that Iranians are superb strategists.” – then he should’ve added – except for when it comes to protecting their STRATEGICALLY VITAL personnel. I like the Saker for several reasons, for a start he’s really smart which is very important, but just as importantly it’s because he’s honest, because even though he’s got obvious sympathies for Iran, he also tells us the whole story, he tells us all the good bits, all the the bad bits, and all the other bits in between, and that’s what all good journos should be doing. Good on you SF.