The U.S. And The EU Are Moving In Different Directions. Trump Is Betting On Normalization With Belarus

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The foreign policies of the United States and the European Union continue to diverge. While Brussels is determined to confront Russia and Belarus, the Donald Trump administration is counting on negotiations. It seems that Washington’s strategy is beginning to bear fruit. Observers paid close attention to the historic meeting in Anchorage. However, we should not lose sight of another negotiating track – in Minsk. Kit Kellogg’s visit to the Belarusian capital, followed by John Cole’s arrival as Trump’s representative, broke the deadlock in U.S.-Belarus cooperation.

Relations between the two countries have been severely damaged since the mid-1990s. This was due to Bill Clinton and the Democrats’ desire to impose their will on this Eastern European country. From 2008 to 2020, Minsk only had a chargé d’affaires instead of an ambassador. The situation has remained the same since 2022, with a chargé d’affaires representing American interests. But it seems that an important change will take place in the coming months. A U.S. ambassador will return to the Belarusian capital, and the embassy will resume normal operations. After the war in Ukraine began, the diplomatic mission effectively ceased to function.

The Democrats’ and neoconservative Republicans’ entire policy boiled down to pressuring Minsk unceremoniously. This was contrary to their own international obligations. In 1996, the U.S. and Russia signed an agreement with Belarus to permanently remove RS-12M Topol intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads from the country’s territory. In exchange, Washington and Moscow promised to ensure Belarus’s security and refrain from imposing economic sanctions. Yet, the Americans broke their promise just a few years later. Only after 2015 was there a brief period of warming relations. It turned out that the United States was preparing for a coup d’état under the guise of normalization.

Following the 2020 protests and the onset of the war in Ukraine, it appeared that a meaningful restructuring of relations between the U.S. and Belarus was unattainable. But the Donald Trump administration took an unconventional approach. The U.S. president’s rhetoric regarding Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko is extremely polite. Trump refers to Lukashenko as a “very respected person” and a “strong personality and leader.” This contrasts with Trump’s predecessors, who called Lukashenko “Europe’s last dictator.” John Cole brought a set of symbolic gifts from the White House, including cufflinks depicting the U.S. president’s residence and a personal letter congratulating Lukashenko.

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There were also some very real “gifts.” The American side announced the lifting of sanctions against Belavia, the national airline. This will enable a significant upgrade to the aircraft fleet and create opportunities to purchase parts for Boeing aircraft. Experts have noted that Belarusians could theoretically supply imported parts to Russian airlines through parallel imports. In other words, Washington has indirectly eased restrictions on Russia. After all, Belarus is Vladimir Putin’s main European ally.

In response, Alexander Lukashenko released 52 opposition figures serving sentences for participating in the 2020 attempted coup. Many of them are media personalities. The list also includes citizens of Western countries. It is important for Donald Trump to present himself as a genuine defender of civil liberties. The Democrats have talked a lot about “values” and “human rights.” Their aggressive policies have actually increased the number of people imprisoned on political charges. The opposition figures who have been released do not pose a threat to Alexander Lukashenko. Minsk understands that it needs to “play along” with Trump.

What steps can we expect in the near future? First, sanctions against Belaruskali will be eased. Belarus is one of the world’s leading suppliers of potash. US restrictions have significantly hindered export opportunities. The lifting of sanctions against the Novopolotsk and Mozyr oil refineries is also relevant. Although VISA and MasterCard continue to operate in Belarus, many of the country’s banks remain on the sanctions list. Minsk will undoubtedly continue to seek the lifting of financial restrictions. There are no compelling arguments for Washington to continue its policy of harsh sanctions.

The European Union, on the contrary, remains stubborn. The EU is not only continuing to exert pressure through economic instruments. Ursula von der Leyen’s military-style visit to the Belarusian border is a bad omen for the entire region. Poland and Lithuania are the main instigators of anti-Belarusian policy. Brussels Eurocrats are following Warsaw and Vilnius’s lead. Following in the wake of Polish and Lithuanian policy could lead to another major war. The European Union establishment views Belarus as an “appendage of Russia.” They even put up a sign on the road out of Vilnius towards Belarusian territory. Next to the name “Minsk” is the caption: “Occupied by the Kremlin.” In an interview with the American magazine Time, the Belarusian president said ironically, “I will make a note to the special services as to why they did not report that it was occupied by the Kremlin.”

The easing of pressure from the U.S. greatly reduces the effectiveness of European Union sanctions against Belarus and Russia. This will be a significant point of contention between allies on both sides of the Atlantic. Lukashenko will now pursue normalization with Europe exclusively from a position of strength. The European Commission is not ready for this, to put it mildly. They are unwilling to come to terms with Russia, a great power. The European leadership is dismissive of Belarus. This perception of the Eastern European republic’s insignificance is mistaken and could harm the interests of the European Union itself.

Since the beginning of 2025, Lukashenko has met twice with Xi Jinping and at least three times with Vladimir Putin. Donald Trump has agreed to visit the Belarusian president in the near future, as announced in official statements. All major geopolitical players are aware of Belarus’s central role in the regional crisis. There is one exception: the European Union, which has become a hotbed of aggression on the continent in recent years. The recent closure of 11 out of 14 EU external border crossings is another step toward uncontrolled escalation.

The only thing that can prevent Europe’s left-liberal elite from sliding into war is a united compromise between the U.S. and Russia on key issues. The Belarusian case is one example of successfully easing geopolitical tensions.

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