Illustrative Image: Russian President Vladimir Putin gestures as he speaks at the 10th business forum “Business Russia” in 2015. Putin has encouraged businesses to expand domestically before Western nations lift economic sanctions
The EU, and not Russia, has weakened since the start of the special military operation
Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
Although many remember February 24 as the first anniversary of the war in Ukraine, Russia’s special military operation is actually the next phase of a wider conflict that began in 2014. This is a key point often overlooked because the narrative built in the West is that Russia’s intervention was an unprovoked invasion with the sole purpose of territorial expansionism. The international community, which the West incorrectly refers to itself as, has rejected this narrative. To the disappointment of Western leaders, most of the world has instead deepened their ties with Russia.
However, even this narrative has been exposed in the West as a fallacy. It is recalled that former German Chancellor Angela Merkel admitted in December 2022 that “the 2014 Minsk agreement was an attempt to give time to Ukraine.”
“It also used this time to become stronger as can be seen today. The Ukraine of 2014-2015 is not the modern Ukraine,” she said, adding that “it was clear to everyone” that the conflict had been put on hold, “yet this was what gave Ukraine invaluable time.”
Merkel’s statement confirmed that the Minsk Accords, a series of agreements which sought to end the Donbass war, was only intended to give the Ukrainian state more time to militarily strengthen. It also proves that the Western party of the Minsk Accords never intended to use this mechanism to find peace and address the concerns of local residents.
Therefore, the Russian intervention was not necessarily a surprise, and perhaps the West were even expecting it when remembering that the US were issuing warnings only weeks before the special military operation began.
However, what was an absolute surprise for the West was the geopolitical and economic ramifications – all to the detriment of the West and to the advancement of Moscow.
It cannot be denied that sanctions had an impact on the Russian economy, but the European Union has demonstrated that it is nothing more than a political dwarf that has no autonomy from Washington. Sanctions have a limited effect on Russia given that it is a completely self-sustainable country, unlike Syria and Iran (which are also heavily sanctioned but without the capacity for self-sustainability).
Rather, the sanctions have actually accelerated the de-Dollorisation of the global economy and deepened the economic crisis in Europe.
There was evidently naivety in the West as there was a false belief that Russia would capitulate to sanctions pressure. Instead, Europe is experiencing an economic crisis that has crushed the Middle Class through a cost-of-living crisis. Meanwhile, Russia has greater prospects for recovery compared to Germany and the UK.
According to a January forecast by the International Monetary Fund, Russia’s economy will grow faster than Germany’s while Britain’s will contract. This is a far cry from the eminent collapse of the Russian economy that was predicted when hundreds of international companies, such as McDonald’s and Boeing, withdrew from Russia and Russians were blocked from using Western financial institutions.
It is recalled that in March 2022, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen boasted that “the Russian economy will be devastated.” Eleven months after Yellen’s statement, the IMF predicts that the Russian economy will start growing again in 2023, expanding by 0.3% and then 2.1% in 2024. Although 0.3% growth is paltry, it is still surprisingly higher than Germany’s 0.1%, a phenomenal situation considering that it is Berlin imposing the sanctions, not Russia on Germany.
The UK is in an even worse situation. Its economy is expected to contract by 0.6%.
Illustrative Image
India and China are helping Russia alleviate the stress of decoupling from Western financial institutions and trade exchanges. Many experts believe that the 21st century is the “Asian Century” and expect the world’s major financial centres to shift from the West to the East. In this light, Russia’s exclusion from the West has left it with no choice but to strongly project to the East, something that India, China and other countries have enthusiastically taken advantage of.
The 20th century was dominated by the bipolar system and a short-lived unipolar system. Although the 21st century is multipolar in nature, the overwhelmingly dominant economic and military powers are expected to be the US and China, with a host of other Great Powers, such as Russia and India, fully capable of defending their own interests.
What the West does not realise is that in such a global system, it is Russia that hugely influences whether the US or China will triumph. Russia has effectively been given no choice but to pivot towards China. Future generations in the West will learn that this was a strategic blunder – and all for the illiberal sake of defending a neo-Nazi regime in Kiev.
Therefore, the war in Ukraine was expected to be another advancement of liberalism and Western internationalism. However, what has transpired instead is the weakening of Western hegemony. The US expected most countries to fall in line and impose sanctions against Russia, however, this did not trend in Asia, the Islamic World, Africa, or Latin America.
Although the West is persistently and arrogantly defending the Kiev regime against the reality that Russia will triumph in the war, it continues to ruin its own reputation in the eyes of the actual international community by lambasting countries, such as India, for not following their orders. This will have long-term negative ramification for the West as its influence is weakening and mistrust is deepening.
Putin is dictator but better than Isis
What would you describe as a Dictator? Somebody who stands in line, with 17 others when the people turn out to vote for a President? Or somebody who annually holds ‘Telephone’ marathons with their people, to find out what they want from Government? Or perhaps, a Dictator by your terms, is somebody who regularly holds 3-4 hour marathon press conferences, with national and international journalists, both friendly and foe? I could go on, but, when reading comments, one does wonder if people actually have any conception with regards what words actually mean?
Definitely China is important, and by that extent Asia which includes India, and all of SEA, Koreas and Japan.
The onlys who want war in Asia are westerners mostly jews and faggots with their filthy shit on a stick called secularism and covid vaxx.
Asia needs to remove this secularism, which removes the filthy jew and the filthy faggot.
Ive been doing this for years, and know for fact that only jews and faggots vehemently oppose Leviticus 20:13 and Mathew 6:24. But their fate is approaching soon.
Leviticus 20:13 – “If a man also lie with mankind, as he lieth with a woman, both of them have committed an abomination: they shall surely be put to death; their blood shall be upon them.”
Matthew 6:24 “No man can serve two masters: for either he will hate the one, and love the other; or else he will hold to the one, and despise the other. Ye cannot serve Prime Creator and mammon.”
Et je me permettrai de compléter votre analyse fort juste avec la signalisation des pourritures de vert susnommés pompeusement écolos qui ne sont que des chasseurs de primes gauchiatiques!!! La laïcité n’est que la religion de la république jacobine despotique et que les Français doivent intégrer que cette catin enj….vée doit enfin crever! Et vite!!! Très vite !!!!!!!
Being in charge of one country so you don’t sell to others doesn’t mean being a dictator.
I doubt you’d know what a dictator was if you sat next to one. Besides one mans dictator is another mans saviour.
The globalists are evil authoritarian scum and worse than ISIS, which incidentally they created. Putin is a saint when compared to globalists.
There is no miscalculation if China is on Western side. It happened to be a cornered stone of globalist system. Just saying..
Yes, but one that is hated and feared by the globalists for being so important.
You’d find that China is mostly on China’s side.
Im sure they d be happy to receive Siberia
I always have to laugh at Pro-NATO trolls who keep screeching like monkeys about China taking Russian land. Russians are being told that China is their biggest threat from people who are arming the Ukraine, placed 14000+ sanctions on them, stole $300 Billion of their country’s money and are openly calling for regime change and breaking apart the Russian into several new countries like they did in Yugoslavia.
Only a fool would ignore the enemy in front of them wielding a knife because the person behind them might take their wallet if they get stabbed and die.
Everyone is on their own side, some are completely stupid about it, some seek middle ground and try to go forward. It’s called Diplomacy, America should try it, save a lot of death and hatred. When the US goes down no one will be at the Funeral. Everyone hates them.
The shame of it is most Americans have done nothing . Our leaders cannot be removed because propaganda has gamed the system . Many seek a answer.
Aside from the cost in blood with the new super expensive western weapons and destruction of the dollar a conspiracy theorist might see this as a Russian plan to destroy the Western economic system that could succeed under some conditions.
Lenny, the hilarious of this is about who is real destroying the Western economy…guess who is who…
US Republicans miscalculated Iraq 2, their think tanks really wanted to remake the entire Middle East. Now US Democrats are miscalculating with the Ukraine War it seems they want to remake Russia. Either way the US has lost its mind.
The trouble is their ‘think tanks’ start and end from a point of arrogance, never listening or understanding debate, just plan things, with only one point of view and only one way to win. Apart from the loss of life, it is quite comical to see it all falling to pieces. thi
Oy vey the goys are on to us.
Very well said, AM :)
There is actually one difference: Ukrainians wants independent country which is part of the prosperous EU and they will fight for it!
West is finished. Good riddance.
l’Europe de merde ruinée, nos nèg…es et bougn….es ainsi que les youp…s vont sans doute rentrer dans leurs bleds lointain Bon débarras !!!! Restera que….Martyriser les députés, sénateurs “sauf Ravier” les préfets, magistrats, maires collabos. L’avenir s’annonce lumineux… Sans compter les dégâts collatéraux des injectés qui sont en sursis et qui vont pouvoir se lâcher sur la bête administrative jacobine avant de claquer !!!! Va y avoir du sport !!!!!!!!!
Sans compter les dommages collatéraux des INJECTÉS pas absorbés!!!!! Terrible ces erreurs d’automatisation !!!!
russia lost so fast, the cry of russian trolls and fascists is a pleasure to hear !
Yeah. Remember, Ursula the Witch of the EU, and her excitement with regards the $300 billion Russian currency, that was going to be ‘frozen then seized’? Well how much did they find? Was it around $30 million? Russia, in the meantime, found $150 billion of Western Assets, which are now frozen. How much of Ukraine was under Ukraine control, prior to this time last year and how much is now back with Russia? Then look at the losses, not only of Ukraine Forces and mercenaries, but, how many planes, helicopters, tanks, weapons and systems did Ukraine have this time last year, compared to now? Never see Russia with a begging bowl, now do we? Let alone asking for help.
Brilliant¨
With regards how nations are aligning, 80% of the planet, with only 20% of the world debt align with Russia, whilst 20% of the planet, who own 80% of world debt, align with the West.
Samantha Power has been over in Hungary, with her USAID programme, demonising Russia and setting them up for regime change. She was also over in Nigeria and does anybody know if her politician of choice came first or last?
Interesting times
Très bonne analyse !!! Très pertinente !!! Bravo !
Po tom ako pastieri kôz z Afganistanu nakopali rite teroristom z USA, sa svet zmenil. Už nik nemá strach z teroristov z USA lebo každý už vie, že teroristov z USA mono poraziť!!! Stačí na to odvaha a Kalašnikov!!! Ha, ha, ha … Preto dne môžeme sledovať ako jednotlivé malé štáty odmietajú poslušnosť darebáckemu štátu USA a nemienia ho podporovať v zástupnej vojna na Ukrajine. Týmto že sa darebácky štát USA prepočítal, si vykopal vlastný hrob. Teraz sa už iba všetci prizerajú ako sa darebácky štat USA a ich vazal EU spolu z ich teroristickou organizácoiu NATO priamo rútia do vlastného hrobu!!!
To je možno pravda, ale Slovensko vstúpilo do Európskej únie a NATO v roku 2004 a do eurozóny v roku 2009. Takže Slovensko bude musieť byť dobrým poslušným vazalom a robiť, čo sa mu povie…inak.
The misunderstanding of these article is relation between the USA and the EU. EU if they wanted to, could turn back on USA. They simply don’t want to – interest of the EU is the interest of USA. Poor Egyptian guy thinks everyone is someone else’s slave – doesn’t work like that in the Free World…
As professor Sachs has rightly pointed out. The interests of the EU simply aren’t the same as those of the US. EU has every interest in low-price Russian energy, for example. US has every interest to boycott that. Etc.
” EU if they wanted to, could turn back on USA.” EU as political entity is a joke , it is constructed on purpose such way that there will be never an own powerful voice. It is not even vasall , it is something like a great chaotic pack , easy to manipulate , to blackmail and to misuse. Something like a shoal of sardines surrounded by predators , who eat them up bit by bit. If it continues for the next 10 or 20 years , it is a destruction of the whole continent. Europe as we were born there , will be the history.
you moron americunt
Hege-something. Let’s talk money, like mineral deposits and ag output. What’s REALLY going on, here…LOL
No country trusts the us anymore and all self inflicted. The days of the dollar are numbered
The US-UK miscaculated. I live west of Russia. Everyday, Russian propaganda tells me that I, collectively, am therefore “the enemy”. You talk about “Russophobia”… what about Zapadophobia? Or Gharbophobia, if you like? Every day, you make millions of people your enemy by declaring them to be so. Why? My position is friendly towards Russia and I understand the reasons for her special military operation. However, everyday, me, my fellow citizens are vilified. I don’t think Putin wants to heal or cooperated; he wants to divide. He makes us the enemy. Ok. So, after having heard it 10.000 times, I’ll give up and be your enemy. If you insist so much.
… and no. Of course I’m not really changing my position on account of what imprudent people might say. I never have and I never will. Otherwise I wouldn’t have this position. But please consider that this rhetoric may have an adverse effect on a lot of people and is not in your own best interest.
“I don’t think Putin wants to heal or cooperated; he wants to divide. ” … I think , first the person Putin is extremely overdrawn in the west. This is , in my opinion and also of many others , not “Putin’s war” , but backed by the large part of Russian society. In this sense it would be not so important what Putin wants or doesn’t want , but what are the motives and expectations of the Russian society. Ok I know , I go contra against the western MSM narrative of the pure dictatorship in Russia today , but this is how I think. I think also I can respect and live with your opinion , but believe for myself (so I know many Russians) – they want to live in peace on their own , neither to attack their neughbors nor be attacked and conquered. Many feel belonging to the west , but are actually extremely disappointed and sooner or later will turn back from the west.
we want to divide the nazi amerikans and NATO colonies from civilized peoples
Interesting you get the same stuff from both sides but now one speaks anything remotely true.
Pro Western Media: Russia is collapsing Hundred of thunsands of russian dead Russia miscalculated
Pro Russian Media: Ukraine is collapsing and the west will be draged down with them Hundred of thoudands of ukrainian and western voluntarys dead The West miscalculated
Is there any instance on this planet left which actually cares to report what is really happening? If both sides are winning at least one side is lying or are both lying and no one is winning?
“Is there any instance on this planet left which actually cares to report what is really happening? If both sides are winning at least one side is lying or are both lying and no one is winning?” … or both are lying , but one side is more lying than the other , and that’s why it is then more probably that it loses. In the recent wars it was the same. … but all in all I agree: it’s war propaganda like since the beginning of the human race and you will find no such instance. With your life experience , intellect and creativity you can collect pieces of reality from different sources , which you verify for yourself due to plausibility , and then try to puzzle some of them together. It will though never be perfect .
They were counting on the collapse of the ruble, which did not occur.
my anus is very weak when I see mullatto penis
Vous êtes malade mon pauvre!!! Rien n’est plus beau (pour un homme sain) qu’un corps de femme ( faisant attention à elle !!!) La sodomie est une perversion de zoophile ! Consultez vite et faites vous injecter un COVID à base de graphène !!!! Vite!!! Allez y de ma part vous aurez un prix pour les doses suivantes!!!
Dopes! Do not fight somebody else in a different town , IN THEIR OWN BACK YARD!!!