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On April 24, government forces, led by the Tiger Forces and the 5th Assault Corps, continued their successull offensive against Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) and its allied militant groups in northern Hama.
Following a preliminary artillery bombardment, government troops entered a small village of Massanah, located south of the important militant-held town of Lataminah. After few hours of heavy clashes, the Tiger Forces and its allies were able to get control over the village, according to pro-government sources. However, the situation remained tense and firefights continued in the vicinity of Massanah.
Click to see the full-size map. Source: @miladvisor/Twitter
Meanwhile, clashes erupted in Zor al-Hisah and Zilaqiat where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its allies counter-attacked against government forces. An intense fighting is now ongoing there.
Multiple airstrikes were reported in the militant-held towns of Lataminah, Morek and Kafr Zita.
HTS, Ahrar al-Sham and smaller militant groups are now suffering a lack of manpower and military equipment at the frotnline as a result of the almost two-month long battle in northern Hama. A majority of their losses were caused by airstrikes and artillery shelling by government forces and their allies.
If HTS-led forces continue attempts to defend Lataminah with all means from the government advance, the failure in this aim could lead to a total collapse of the militant defenses in the Hama-Idlib countryside.
One of the forecasts of the ongoing government advance that are now popular in the pro-government section of the social media:
Click to see the full-size map. Source: @Syria_Hezb_Iran/Twitter
SF’s analysis of the situation:
Great video,
I would like to see a development towards Morek, but it might be easier to take Lataminah with a direct assault. I am not a fan of direct assaults in general. I would like to see SAA spend a day securing their positions and expanding to take strategic cross roads like Tal Sawn, Tal Syriantel, Lahya, AL Buwaydah, Al arba’een, Zakah, Al Shir, Mahruqat. This is neccesary prior to storming of the city or to perform a pincer maneuver. Rather than simply attacking Morek, I would like to also see a simultaneous push from the west to cut off Kaft Zita from the north, possibly by capturing al-sayyad. Similarly, the City of Morek does not need to be captured immediately, it only need be cut of from the roads to the north. I think if the SAA allows jihadists to escape through the roads between Kafr Zita and Morek, they are missing a real opportunity to deny reinforcements and to truly crush thousands of jihadis in a confined area with hyperbaric weapons
The SAA with Russia has total air superiority over the battle field and superior artillery, which they used to destroy Al Cia Da defenses and front lines in other towns in this offensive making a direct assault to take them possible. The SAA can do the same now. The defenders don’t get to use all their weapons in a frontal assault when they have been bombed to pieces. In a couple of weeks once Hama has been cleared, the the SAA can then concentrate in the Palmaria area destroying ISIS and Al Cia Da there for about a month or and getting ride of the last rebel pocket in Damascus and then the push east to Deir Azur can begin in about 6 weeks time. It will be very fast as it is mostly open desert and ISIS and Al Cia Da have used up almost all their remaining manpower in these delaying offensives against the SAA. I bet we will see more Russian bombers and attack helicopters involved in the push east to Deir Azur
You make good points about immense firepower on the ground. Still, advantage does not rule out the need for tactics. It is possible that SAA can just steamroll over the jihadis like weeds in a field. However, this could lead to cost in manpower and equipment. The FSA can always import more Turks, or Saudis, or Chechens, or whateverstan radicals who will come and fight on the cheap. The SAA does not have the luxury to waste manpower. Also, a direct assault, even if successful without cutting the roads to the north will likely only lead to an enemy retreat. Eventually, they will live to fight another day, possible on terms that are more favorable to them. It might be wiser to trap the jihadis and force others to come to their rescue from all over Idlib, this way the SAA can use the Liwa force to launch an assault on western Aleppo.
SAA need second front to spread FSA and ISIS infernity thin. SAA should continue with the momentum North of Hama
I agree with you in a long-term strategic sense. However, tactically, I like the idea of trapping a 5k force of jihadists in a death trap and using them as bait to make other jihadis come for them as you massacre them with artillery and planes in fields by controlling highways and fortified positions.
I like the bait idea as well but now they can be wiped out. The bait idea has already worked. Time to advance to the border of Idlib set up a strong defense and then concentrate on the East and South of Syria and the Damascus pocket and Deir Azur, to preserve Syria’s territorial integrity and drive the USSA out. Syria must have a line of territory from west to east so there can be no Saudi / Qatar pipelines to Europe. Then the war will be won and the USSA will leave.
It’s a different war now. With Russia’s help the SAA is improving rapidly, in skill training and equipment. Modern weapons and training are far more important than manpower. With such equipment and training you don’t lose many men and you can do things you could not do before. Numbers mean much less now than they did for the old corrupt Syrian army before Russia got involved. Even a few thousand Hezbollah beat hundreds of thousands of Israeli murderers and the full military might of Israel in 2006 because of their training and equipment. Israel, ISIS, Al Cia Da and Saudi will need 10 times plus the men and much better equipment and training then they had before to advance in Syria again. It won’t happen.
Who will beat the SAA, Russia and Iran? The Saudi army who can’t even beat Yemen? The Jordanians who can’t even control Jordan? The Turks with their army now purged who could not take Manjib without Russian and Syrian help? Israel? No way will one Jewish finger nail be risked to be broken in any fighting in Syria and they would lose anyway with mass casualties if they dared.
Putin has to tell Erdogan and the Platform shoe midget of Jordan to F off with support the Takfiri. Unless these are pushed off….they will…and can keep a % of Takfiri in the field To tie up SAA,Hezbollah and IRGC. IRGC defend Shia Mosque and Shia zones . Hezbollah has the FSA now attacking them in Qalamoun region,….to bottle them up And help Israel backed Kooks fight in Syria Golan and Der ah. All these contacts are attrition… SAA have lost several tanks to Turk/Saudi supplied TOW. Syria and allies have the initiative. …Question is,…will attrition loss rate leave Eastern Syria wide open to US/ISIS to roll down the Euphrates. US Generals stated they will remain in Iraq after Mosul operations. The same could occur in Syria if US has it easy with no pushback By Russia or Assad.
Aleks black Using massive precision firepower so you can march unopposed through an area is a tactic.
I am all about dropping explosives on jihadis.
I am all about winning and the best way to get ride of ones enemies is to turn them into friends as Abraham Lincoln said. Most of these Jihadis have no idea they are being misled to work for the beast Satan and his vessel on this earth Israel. http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-defense-minister-says-is-apologized-to-israel-for-november-clash/ To defeat ISIS and Al Cia Da Russia, Syria, China and Iran must defeat their creator and backer and their true capital Israel. Without Israel they would both case to exist in a month or 2. This is why and Russia China both need a big military base with nukes right beside Israel and there will be instant peace. https://www.rt.com/news/386027-isis-apologized-israel-golan/I You won’t see this on our heavily censored Jewish owned media.This should be front page news and on every T.V channel. Where are the sanctions and Toma Hawk cruise missile strikes on Israel for this??
ISIS once ‘apologized’ to Israel for mistakenly attacking their ally and master Israel and IDF soldiers – confesses former Defense Minister
ISIS is Israel, Israel is ISIS nothing beats the confession.
“There was one case recently where Daesh opened fire and apologized,” Ya’alon said on Saturday, as cited by the Times of Israel. http://www.timesofisrael.com/ex-defense-minister-says-is-apologized-to-israel-for-november-clash/ Yes I don’t think ISIS apologizes to France, Britain, Germany, the USA etc etc. They show this in Israeli media but if any media or politician in the Israeli occupied slave empire showed it or talked about it here they would be called racist, arrested etc. for talking about and reporting on the truth. Nothing beats a confession this time from the Israeli defense minister.
Is there any doubt who the creators and masters of ISIS and Al Cia Da are???
Is the times of Israel anti Jewish and against Israel for saying this???
Yes, Liwa al Quds and RG members are still in the countrysides of Western Aleppo. But their manpower is not enough to secure conquered areas or flanks to move deeper.
Here is the strategy I am proposing. The shortest distance between any two points is a line. Thus the manpower required to trap the FSA will need fewer people overall that the manpower required to secure the border. I understand most of these are worthless Guard units and local militia, but by organizing them into a smaller space, they could be used to keep the Jihadist at bay in home with the help of Hezbollah and the tiger forces while the elements of 5th are transferred to link up with liwa in Aleppo and trap a secondary group of jihadis thereby cutting of the pocket. In other words, before the Liwa offensive on west Aleppo, I would want to reinforce them with the rest of the 5th corp and allow jihadists to leave NW to reinforce their catastrophe of an offensive in Hama. I also think Iran could help by flying a few thousand guys into Heimeim to launch a third front on the FSA; I don’t think their lines could handle it.
Had hoped Russia would have led a Multinational Security operation with Nations already signatory to Russia/Eurasia economic/security. This could free up significant SAA forces, …even IRGC/Iranian special forces For operations east of Palmyra and to Jordan border. Empires going to attack Silk Road project….might as well get out ahead of that Game.
The most you can expect on that front is that Russia sends in her own volunteer battalions, but I can’t see this happening yet. There would have to be an escalation by Turks or the Americans.
If you have the advantage in firepower, tactics tend to be framed to exploit it. Extravagant manoeuvres do not always benefit from firepower for being too dispersed. A narrow-front attack inside a box of artillery, rocket and bomb explosions can be economical in troops, despite the US head-chopping, heart-eating rapers being well dug in.
Well said Attrition47. There is no such thing as being well dug in against a massive precision bombardment of artillery (including thermoberic artillery weapons that suck out all the oxygen from an underground shelter and replace it with fire and a large pressure wave) and massive precision bombardment from un-opposed air power.
It worked aIl right at Gorlice-Tarnow in 1915.
An well planned encirclement and let them starve inside or die on thirst. No own losses, but much fun.
http://www.fort-russ.com/2017/04/serbian-forces-to-participate-in.html If confirmed…good news. Serbs can relieve SAA in Palmyra region to other operations.
Yep wheel north from the East and West above Morek and Kafr Zita and form a couldron then confine and destroy it, they will try to rescue them from Aleppo which exposes their forces on the move in the open country of idlib to destruction from the air.
Perhaps we can now investigate what really happened in Khan Sheikhoun
Perhaps? For sure.
SAA gain momentum, they should press North with that momentum and not allowed for the ISIS and FSA regroup and rearm. SAA should also open second front. Maybe South of Aleppo and gain the East of Idlib province countryside. Obtain larger buffer zone
We are coming for you, filthy goat-fuckers…. we are coming….