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Written by Julian Macfarlane,
The way of war has changed. And tomorrow’s war is here already.
Larry Johnson and Andrei Martyanov
There are some writers online that you simply must read if you want to get a sense of what is happening geopolitically and militarily today.
Larry Johnson, the ex-CIA analyst is one.
Andrei Martyanov, a major source on the Russian military, is another.
Recently, Johnson published an article based on a Martyanov YouTube Video in which he talks about President Xi’s trip to Moscow and the possibility of military collaboration.
China really, really needs Russian hypersonic missiles and air defense systems opines Martyanov. War looms on the horizon for China— and without a little from its friends, it might not win.
Johnson quotes Andrei:
…the air wing can launch a salvo of JASSMs BEYOND the range of the anti-CBG DF-21 missiles. Simple arithmetic: 950+700=1,650 km, or, in case of JASSM XR, 1,900 + 700 =2,600 km. But that is in case of the attack of the ground targets in the mainland China. JASSM, however, is also and even primarily so–anti-shipping missile. Yes, it is a typical American anti-shipping missile–subsonic and not particularly maneuverable. But… as you can count, JUST three US Navy CBGs you can immediately recognize that in their alpha-strikes, those three can have 48 x 3 = 144 strike aircraft simultaneously and each of those F-18s can carry… 4 JASSMs. Let’s not be primitive and imagine that some of those F-18s will have pure air-defense configuration. So, let’s say that we will have on average not 4 but 3 JASSM per F-18. Multiply: 144 x 3 = 432 JASSMs in the first salvo.
That sounds pretty convincing. But would China really lose in such a scenario?
Did Martyanov get it wrong?
I don’t think the US Navy has that much of an advantage.
Martyanov is simply superb on Russian military matters—but not so much on the Chinese in this case.
I get the feeling his information is a little dated. In the assessment quoted by Larry, he would have been right just a few years ago. But not now. Things have changed.
To explain, let me do a bit of analysis. After all, this is why this newsletter is called “News Forensics.
Martyanov refers to the JASSM “XR”.
That is kind of giveway— for this is the old name for what is now called the JASSM “ER” (Extended Range) or AGM158 series— long-range versions of the originally rather short-legged JASSM of 2009 vintage, which had a range of just 370 km.
The US Navy version is the AGM158C LRASM (Long Range Anti-Ship Missile). At present, the Navy has about 200. Not, I think 432. Although Andrei might be including shorter range types. Or he might know something I don’t.
But even 400 is not nearly enough.
Three weeks of a war with China would expend or exceed all or nearly all of the U.S. military’s inventory of long-range standoff munitions, according to recent wargames by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Such long-range weapons include the U.S. Air Force’s more than 4,000 AGM-158 Joint-Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles (JASSM) and about 200 U.S. Navy AGM-158C Long-Range Anti-Ship Missiles (LRASM).
Simply put, the US cannot fight China for longer than 3 weeks, and would do at considerable cost. If it cannot win in 3 weeks — it’s out of ammo.
Read between the lines of the US military report.
An invasion of Taiwan could be prevented— but at a terrible cost. The US would never be the same. It would be like Japan after the Battle of the Coral Sea where Japan had tactical victory but the US won a strategic victory. After that Japan was finished.
Andrei’s scenario assumes Chinese naval assets beyond the reach of their air defense systems, or somehow decimated by an initial salvo of over 400 missiles. That is unlikely.
When the US and its allies fired 118 missiles at Syria in 2018, it was at static targets. 71 were intercepted—and that with a Syria’s relatively modest air defense system! War in the Pacific will be no slam dunk for the US. China has a lot more sophisticated defenses than the Syrians, including anti-ballistic missile defenses and electronic countermeasures.
The bases in Okinawa? Sitting ducks.
The Situation
Here’s what the situation in the Pacific looks like. Note that the Chinese defense line includes Okinawa and Subic Bay and Japan. And China’s offensive reach extends far beyond Guam.
Click to see full-size image
If the Chinese were to invade Taiwan, they just would be crossing the 180 km Taiwan Strait. They would be on home turf. Not that they have any intention of invading Taiwan one of their largest trading partners. They want those valuable semiconductor plants humming along smoothly.
However, if for the sake of the argument, they Chinese were somehow forced to invade — then almost the entire area of Taiwan is covered by Chinese land-based air defense systems.
If the US tried to intervene, its forces would be vulnerable. China is not the Taliban. It has a bit more firepower.
Click to see full-size image
China’s maritime forces are clearly considerable and rapidly evolving.
And by the end of the 5 Year modernization program in 2025, they will be more than formidable.
In fact, China’s weaponry improves almost by the day. The Chinese have the technological and industrial base to modernize much faster than the West can. Most importantly is also has the will—since it faces an existential threat of aggression that the West does not.
In terms of cruise missiles, a category to which the JASSM missiles belongs, China has a range of different missiles with different characteristics, adaptable to different senarios. These include but are not limited to the DH-10, CH-10, DF-10A and YJ-100 with ranges varying from 300 to 1000 km. They can be launched from various platforms including aircraft, ships, and submarines. \
In addition. China has air launched hypersonic missiles like the DF 21 which has a range of almost 2000 km.
Click to see full-size image
Remember the H-6 has a range of almost 4000 km, a lot better than the 700 km of an American carrier aircraft.
Of course, the CBGs (Combat Battle Groups) that Andrei mentions are impressive, especially those super-carriers. But, if war comes, it won’t be WWII Redux.
China has a few aircraft carriers, recognizing their usefulness in dealing with non-peer conflicts. Bu they are not going to try to repeat the Battle of Midway.
China has a different focus.
Click to see full-size image
China’s new 052D AD “Chinese Aegis” destroyer—for example, comes with anti-stealth radars, and 64 cell vertical launch tubes, each with up to four missiles. Each ship can therefore technically salvo up to 260 missiles. That’s a lot of firepower. They are called “carrier killers’ for a reason.
These state-of-the-art ships have a lot of flexibility. Each costs close to a billion dollars – cheap compared to the 3.5 to 7 billion of the US Navy’s next generation DDG destroyer. A US carrier costs 13 billion.
Click to see full-size image
If the US loses 3 carriers, that’s 40 billion dollars but small change in a war with China.
Is Taiwan worth it?
Also—are the Americans that crazy? Recent experience does not do much to suggest that they are really sane. It’s the United States of Unreason.
Like Russia, the Chinese must be prepared for an existential war.
How much help do the Chinese need?
Andrei thinks the Chinese need Russia’s help. No, they don’t need it — they want it. There is a difference.
And Russia wants China’s help. 1 +1 =3.
One area for cooperation is hypersonics. Both countries lead in this field and will extend that lead with time, while the US continues to fall behind.
The Russians have already put their Kinzhal missiles to gppd use in the Ukraine. And they have the Avangard system too.
For their part, the Chinese have several systems. There is the hypersonic, high precision CJ 100 (erroneously the “DF100”) which has a maximum range of more than 3000 km—launched from the air at more than 4000 km!
Click to see full-size image
The DF21 —mentioned by Andrei— is now being replaced by the DF26, which has range of about 4000 km.
Click to see full-size image
And there is an air-launched hypersonic missile similar to the Kinzhal.
Click to see full-size image
Of course, the Russians have excellent new delivery systems. Sexy, too.
Click to see full-size image
What the US should not want is a two-front war! But, as we have noted, they are crazy and some politicians talking about exactly that. As Moon of Alabama has noted along with Caitlin Johnstone, suddenly the US and its Media marching band is chanting, “Axis of Evil” — Russian and China (and Iran). This, on the anniversary of the Iraq War. Madness is repeating the same mistake, hoping for a different result.
The US is stark-raving mad
Even if it is just a war in the Pacific, the US is….
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The Real Winners
1. Al-Qaeda
2. Taliban
3. Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham
The real losers
1. wrathschilds kikeism
2. kikeraeli amero faggoism
3. anyone who touches such faggotry
China & Russia
Are you aiding wrathschilds or kikerael because should we find any evidence we will have your ass.
And any attempt to bury Al-Qaeda or Taliban or HTS will automatically bury you!
Proof:
AQ IEA HTS are Winners and any attempt (by losers) to go against is an automatic loss (according to Islamic sources).
I am calling bs. The war is already won.
Put it to the taiwanese govt. that they need to figure out what to do if the chinese make landfall. Pretty harsh to have to put a match to all the good stuff but if the chinese decide to move in may as well make it NOT worth their while. Taiwan is good at making stuff so they could probably turn out a couple million landmines as a side project and train their army and citizens to emplace them. That would not prevent the chinese from taking taiwan but it would make things more difficult.
but unlike Ukraine, Taiwan doesn’t really present a compelling reason for the Chinese to actually enter it. Taiwan or the US would have to start the war itself, and then nobody would be sympathetic to it and they would just appear to be a weak, crazy country lashing out and then taking massive punishment for its own actions
^this filthy faggot cant stop thinking about penis (because hes such a great faggot dane).
#Countdown4DeadFaggotsAndJews
USSA is the stinking albatross lashed around the scrawny neck of Urupp, and as the EUSSR and its €uro dollah collapse they will be the ones to bolt from the meth-addled Slumville golem. There will be no Pentacon “war” against China, only the USual bitchin’ and whinin’ from the gender retarded geriatric perverts in Washing town. China own$ the USSAN dollah and can flUSh the entire “economy” faster than you can say Spratly Islands. Where was Larry for the last 20 years as the goats and sandal guys with ancient Kalshnikovs kicked Onkel Sammy’s wobbly ass ragged in the land of crushed empires? It’s all over already and that’s how Slumville will end, not with Chinese deployed hypersonic Russian missiles in the South China Sea taking out obsolete USSAN rust buckets, rather Zillions of chucked Molotov Cocktails in Slumville’s teeming ghettos.
Classic military p0rn.
even the most sober US military analysts don’t realise how quickly the US would crumble and how easily reduced to tears they would be if they were actually smacked properly for the first time in their military history. The US has never engaged in a real war with themselves as the main target. The idea of taking the majority of casualties and bearing the burden of defeat and humiliation has never occurred to them and they could not handle even small losses without evacuating from most nations they entered