Click to see the full-size image
Written by Drago Bosnic, independent geopolitical and military analyst
Until just a few weeks ago, a US attack on Iran seemed almost like a done deal. This isn’t exactly out of the ordinary for Republican governments, as they tend to be more aggressive toward Tehran, and the Trump administration is no different in that regard. Since his first term, Donald Trump has been quite critical of Iran and its policies. This continued during his second term, with Washington DC escalating tensions by directly attacking and bombing Iranian allies such as the Houthis (officially known as the Ansar Allah). The former Biden administration also worked to pave the way for more American interventionism in the Middle East, particularly by targeting Syria, which fell to Western-backed terrorists in early December. In the meantime, the mainstream propaganda machine kept galvanizing the American public for war with Iran (even before Trump took office).
Worse yet, in the first several months of this year, there have been a number of concrete moves to facilitate such an attack, particularly in terms of deploying strategic assets. Trump himself warned that the US could “launch a bombing attack the likes of which they have never seen before” if Iran refuses to engage in negotiations and make the “necessary” concessions on its nuclear program. Trump made these statements following the deployment of at least seven B-2 “Spirit” strategic stealth bombers to the Diego Garcia Naval Support Facility (officially belongs to the British military, but leased to the US Navy and also often used by the USAF). The Pentagon operates only 19 B-2s, meaning that over a third of all operational bombers were deployed to Diego Garcia. Such a high concentration of these aircraft was certainly not reassuring if one had peace in mind.
However, in recent days, the US decided to send the B-2s home, replacing them with the more conventional B-52 strategic bombers. This can be interpreted as a signal that Trump’s deployment of B-2s was a bluff and that an actual deal with Tehran is increasingly possible. These developments might be connected to the fact that a war with Iran is still overwhelmingly unpopular with the US public, despite decades of the mainstream propaganda machine galvanizing Americans to support it. Namely, the latest poll indicates that over two-thirds of the population is against such a confrontation. According to the University of Maryland’s Critical Issues Poll (PDF), 69% of Americans are in favor of reaching a nuclear deal with Tehran. This includes not only over three-quarters of Democrat supporters (78%), but also nearly two-thirds of Republicans (64%).
Among the latter, there’s nearly a quarter (24%) who support a direct attack on Iran, but they’re still a minority (albeit a very loud one). Unsurprisingly, the most rabid proponents of this are creatures (calling them human is a “tiny bit” of a stretch) like Lindsey Graham, an infamous warmonger and war criminal who has been pushing for more death and destruction virtually his entire life. At one point, he even suggested to “take out Putin”. He was supported by Tom Cotton who seems to belong to the new generation of warmongers set to replace the likes of Graham. They’re working around the clock to sabotage any potential deal with Tehran, urging Trump to resort to war instead. However, the latter seems to have had a change of heart. Many sources have suggested this could also have something to do with Trump’s deteriorating relations with Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
Indeed, it seems that the US has recently stopped giving unconditional support to Israel, a rather unexpected development, particularly as the Pentagon has not only been helping the Israeli military, but has actually facilitated many of its actions in the region, whether in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen or elsewhere. It’s even more unexpected that this comes from Trump who heads one of the most pro-Israel administrations in recent memory. MAGA Republicans would certainly argue that this is part of “America First” policies, but it could simply be an instance of basic realpolitik on Trump’s part, which is anything but uncommon for him. Is it good for the Middle East (and the world)? Most certainly, as preventing war is something we should all strive to do. However, the obvious question arises – can Iran really trust Trump? Historical evidence suggests the answer is no.
Namely, Tehran already had a deal with Washington DC back in 2015, when it signed the JCPOA with the Obama administration. However, Trump scuttled it during his first term. It’s certainly not out of the ordinary for the US to not keep its word and Iran is certainly aware of this. However, diplomacy is still a better alternative to war, so Tehran is likely to continue to play this game with Washington DC. It should also be noted that the geopolitical position of Iran is quite different from what it was in 2015. Although it lost Syria to US/NATO aggression (aided by various Islamic terrorist groups), the country built closer ties with Russia (including through mutual weapons procurement). Trump certainly understands that Tehran’s defense capabilities have only grown due to this, despite the losses its Axis of Resistance suffered in Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.
However, the US seems to be intentionally ambivalent in its demands. At times, American officials will say they’re “willing to allow Tehran to keep its ability to enrich uranium”, but this is then denied by others who are adamant that “Iran must give up its nuclear program”. In addition to agreements that can be changed, intentionally misinterpreted or outright cancelled, this is rather confusing for Tehran, which must contend with not only America, but also its allies, vassals and satellite states in the Middle East. Expectedly, Israel is the most capable of these (not to mention nuclear-armed). However, Washington DC needs to take precisely this into account, as it operates many military bases within the range of Iranian missiles. This segment of Tehran’s hard power is certainly not to be ignored, limiting America’s ability to wage war as it usually does – with near-total impunity.
MORE ON THE TOPIC:
iran = usa’s and israel’s bitch
heheheh
remember “the axis of resistance”?
heheheh
no, jewsa = israel’s bitch.
don’t give up.your day job .transparency suits journalism .
trump trying to manage other nations is stupid . he has a nation that needs major improvement . besides isn’t he the one who ended all those nuclear treaties in his first term ? yep ! same guy !