Illustrative Image
Written by Piero Messina
Kais Saied is the prophet of a new world order, the apologist for a new model of democracy that follows the stylistic features of authoritarianism. This is why Saied is liked by the Western elites. A veil of “global” silence has fallen on what is happening in Tunisia. Yet, on December 17, Tunisia goes to the vote to choose its new Parliament. But democracy in the land of jasmine no longer exists. In a year and a half, President Kais Saied has demolished the institutional rules, changed the Constitution and imposed a new electoral law which effectively excludes political parties from competition.
Three years ago, when Tunisians voted to elect the new parliament, they could choose from around 15,000 candidates presented by 31 national parties, plus an indefinable number of independents and local lists; 20 different parties managed to elect deputies, the independents elected were only 11 in a parliament of 217 seats. Next December 17, the date set for the first round of new political elections (which unlike in the past will take place with the single-member two-round system rather than the proportional system), the choice will be restricted among 1,058 candidates, mostly independent. There will be only 3 parties in the running. In 7 of the 161 constituencies not a single candidate presented itself (400 signatures needed to be collected, at least half of which were women, and at least a quarter of people under 35) and in 10 constituencies the name on the electoral bulletin is only one.
To understand what is happening in Tunisia, we need to list what has happened in the last year and a half. Simply, the stages of the coup that changed Tunisia. Kais Saied was elected president of the Republic of Tunisia in October 2019. An independent candidate, he won the runoff with 72.7 percent of the votes in the runoff in October 2019. Since then he has set up an autocratic policy that aims to exclude parties, based on independent candidates and local authorities.
Saied first suspended parliament in July 2021 and then dissolved it in March this year. The Tunisian president has also canceled the Council of the Judiciary, replacing it with a provisional body that answers directly to the Presidency of the Republic. The government was replaced with a new executive with limited powers. The Constitution has been rewritten. Censorship, judicial repression, arrests of opponents are the pillars of the new “democracy”.
The first point on Saied’s political agenda is the recovery of the economy, through the fight against corruption and speculation. In reality, it has not achieved any results in terms of economic recovery. Indeed, Tunisia is one step away from economic default. The country is sinking into poverty, with a food crisis that can already be called famine. In Tunisia, everything is missing, from bread to medicines. Inflation that has exceeded 10 percent annually has been compounded by a dramatic shortage of basic necessities: hydrocarbons, flour, milk, vegetable oil, sugar, coffee. The fault of the Russian-Ukrainian war, but also the consequence of a State which holds the monopoly of a good part of imports and which, in addition to the old incapacity to manage stocks, today no longer has cash in hand to pay suppliers.
Ordinary people can only get by thanks to government subsidies for the purchase of basic necessities, from bread to fuel. In 2022, the Tunisian government spent 8 percent of GDP on these subsidies. This is money that Tunis does not have: this year the deficit is equal to 7 billion euros. Hopefully another loan from the International Monetary Fund. But Tunisia is already overwhelmed by debts: before the end of 2022 Tunisia must repay 1.8 billion euros of international loans, next year 2.25 and in 2024 another 2.85 billion. Between 2023 and 2027, Tunisia must repay 11 billion euros of foreign debt. In addition, the short-term trade credits of state entities and public enterprises, accumulated since 2018, exceed 3 billion euros.
To allow the Tunisian state not to go bankrupt, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said it is willing to lend 1.9 billion euros in several tranches over the next four years, on condition that in the same period
Tunisia provides a series of reforms which include the reduction in the amount of subsidies for basic necessities, the curbing of salaries in the civil service (which has 700,000 employees who support 3 million people in a country with 12 million inhabitants) and the reabsorption (i.e. taxation) of the informal economy, which is worth 20 percent of GDP. These are reforms that would surely unleash popular anger and fierce opposition from the country’s only union, the powerful UGTT, the general union of Tunisian workers
In this catastrophic situation, Tunisia goes to vote. Almost all of the Tunisian parties have decided to boycott the elections called by the head of state on the basis of the new Constitution approved in a referendum in which 30 percent of those entitled to vote took part on 25 July and the new electoral law enacted with a presidential decree on 15 September last. Saied’s men will win. The elections are boycotted by entire sectors of society and by the historic Tunisian parties: Destouriens, Ennahdha, National Salvation Front, Afek Tounes, Attayar, Al-Massar.
Those who can run away: over 13,000 Tunisians have crossed the Strait of Sicily to seek a better future in Europe.
Despite the economic, political and social catastrophe, Kais Saied is a man that global powers like. Particular attention to the Tunisia dossier is reserved by the US State Department. The last official visit dates back to last week, when Brett McGurk, coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa of the United States Security Council was received in Tunis by President Saied. This renewed attention to Tunisia is also the sign of a new strategic repositioning of the Anglo-US alliance in North Africa. Libya teaches.
Looks like a lap dog..
France taught Tunisians normal customs and now they will try to fend for themselves.
Is a hopeless dream and it is not long before the dirty Arabs in Tunisia start killing each other.
It is in the blood and is influenced by many generations of illiterate glorification of a distant mythological religion, Islam.
Tunisians are not Arabs but Muslims.
Arabs are a group of people who speak Arabic and are Islamists/Muslims.
Then, with that logic, Filipinos speak Spanish therefore they are Spaniards.
You have no sense of logic.
Arabs were the people who created the religion of Islam and became Muslims.
Islam was exported to many other countries and the Arabs are now in the minority when it comes to the people who practice the mythological religion of Islam.
Most Muslims were actually Mesopotamians, Iranians, Berbers, Kushites and Turks.
Excellent job. The previous constitution was not voted by the people, but made by an islamist party elected on fake basis.
This is the era for Islamists. Kais is also playing nice with Turkey cos he realizes that Turkey is the one country that CAN destabilize his rule if he becomes a threat. So far, he’s played a nice balancing act between Turkey and the west. If he becomes a threat, his country’s revolution will be revived but this time by well-armed revolutionaries. And then we’ll know whether he has defeated Islam. Watch out for the following:
1. Establish democracy in Libya peacefully or by force of arms. An Arab democracy right next door will keep the dictators and monarchies awake at night fearing their people will demand the same.
2. If Sisi attempts to stop democracy in Libya, there’ll be war (most likely after Turkey’s election). Sisi can then try his hand at uprooting a GNA armed with dozens of Akincis, TB2s, TB3s, MRLs, long-range SOMs, hundreds of thousads of fighters, etc.
Ilham Aliyev, Omar al Bashir, Mohammed Morsi were supported by Erdogan. Were they democrats?
They aren’t democrats excecpt for Morsi who was legally votted into power. Qatar too isn’t a democracy, but Qatar supports democratic movements allover the Muslim world. Dictators and Monarchies that act according to the will of their people will have so much domestic support that no opposition movement can gain enough popularity to threaten them.
Qatar support democracy, maybe except the 6.500 workers.
Tunisia can never come close to anything resembling a Western democracy as long as the Islamic religion dominates politics and people’s way of life.
They started the Arab Spring and today have problems with extreme Islamists.
The Islamic religion is back. All this attempt to suppress it will fail. The one single trigger that will uproot Saed and Sisi is Libya. Islamists have a strong military foothold here and there’s a border with Tunisia. Turkey can easily train and arm the Tunisian opposition via SADAT. It’s easy to lay hands on Stinger missiles diverted from Ukraine to the black market, and a host of other weapons types. Saed must tread carefully and must never become a threat to Libyan Islamists or Turkey. Otherwise, his dictatorial rule will be ended abrubtly.
Let’s see if the Libyan situation ends up with an Egyptian invasion. I’ve prayed for Sisi to invade Libya but the bastard seems to have realized that it will end hypocritic rule in Egypt. He knows Islamists will udermine the campaign & spark a domestic armed revolution. Anyway, whether he invades or not, the same fate awaits him and probably Kaes because a stable democracy in Libya poses the same kind of threat to them.
I have a question though. Will Erdogan ally with Shia islamists of Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen in the end? Since he said that he was not Sunni or Shia but Muslim.
You should ask the Taliban, Al-Shabaab and Boko Haram for help because they are real unlike your non-existent fantasy god.
But no matter what happens, it is certain that the Muslims will continue to kill each other as long as religion is part of politics. It has to be an either or, if there is ever to be peaceful coexistence between Muslims.
democracy democracy democracy you all talk about democracy but who is stupid enough to believe that such a thing can exist? who are stupid enough to believe that all of you have some power in your countries. that’s what democracy is! power to the people. since when did the people have power? where ? it is always a small group of the elite and the rich who rule. Think about what is called democracy is one of the biggest scams in the history
Saied is strange. On one hand, he supported Erdogan during Tripoli offensive. On the other, he was against the Muslim Brotherhood and was praised by Sisi and Haftar.
He’s playing a balancing act. He also figured Erdogan will win in the Tripoli offensive anyway, so better to support the winning side. With Turkish forces stationed next door, Saed would be wise to not get into a fisticuf with Erdogan. But he’s being carefully watched from Ankara.
Probably he will be in the Sisi-Haftar-Assad group.
Tunisia is a small country, they’d play it safe. It’s still far more democratic than most globalist countries. They’ll sort it out themselves. Even Su’ayyid isn’t with the Empire 100%. Likely they will adjust towards BRICS at some point. However, just now, they need the EU as major economic ‘partner’… and the EU’s military is the US:
This article is written in the same Muslim Brotherhood, pro Erdogan’s Turkey style… The same style used by the Arab apologists who were behind the media propaganda advocating for the events that caused Libya’s and Syria’s demise. I stand with Kais Saïed… I stand with Tunisia sovereignty !
However, countries like Tunisia, Libya and Syria should accept Muslim Brotherhood as a party.
They deleted my comments because my comments are opening people’s eyes. South Front is a Russian propaganda outlet. You need to also frequent sites like syrianobserver(dot)com cos they report lots of things that SF doesn’t about Syria.
Piero is a clown and the islamists’ whore who was disappointed when President Saied put Piero’ masters in the dustbin of History. And it is a muslim who writes this.