Illustrative Image
Written by Piero Messina
Tunisia is one step away from the abyss. Plenipotentiary President Kais Saied dissolved parliament. The legislative assembly was suspended on July 25 last year. In fact, on that date, with the removal of the premier, Hicham Mechichi, and the suspension of Parliament led by the president’s main political rival, the leader of Ennahda, Rached Ghannouchi, the last phase of the Tunisian crisis began.
Step by step, Saied built an autocratic regime, replacing the government and also putting pressure on the judiciary. Saied decided to dissolve Parliament after the Assembly’s decision to convene itself on March 30th. The parliamentarians, meeting by videoconference, had voted for the annulment of the exceptional presidential decrees that give President Saied almost absolute powers. Meanwhile, the president of the Tunisian parliament, Rashid Ghannouchi (leader of the Islamist movement Ennadha) announced his refusal to dissolve the legislative institution and denounced the fact that, in the meantime, dozens of deputies had been summoned by the police to be subjected to a interrogation by the authorities.
Saied condemned the deputies’ initiative and called it a failed coup attempt. Many Tunisian parliamentarians, including Ghannouchi (president of the parliament and leader of Ennadha) were summoned by the National Guard’s anti-terrorism brigade. Ghannouchi will be questioned by the military. His eventual arrest would cause the anger of the squares to explode.
Saied’s move complicates the dramatic economic crisis in Tunisia. As the Tunisian president announced the dissolution of parliament, Tunisia was looking for ways to persuade its financial partners and international institutions to continue supporting the economy. To avoid default, Tunisia needs external financing of at least 12 billion dinars (about 4 billion dollars) in order to guarantee the basic necessities of imports and the payment of wages.
According to many local observers, Saied’s decision amplifies the country’s economic and social difficulties in light of the difficulties of life and the decline in purchasing power and the local currency.
The decision to dissolve Parliament came hours after Finance Minister Siham Namsieh announced that there were positive indications about the loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund. The announcement by the European Union had also arrived of its intention to allocate 4 billion euros in investments in Tunisia. But the criterion that all international partners are asking for is the political stability of government institutions and internal consensus: the International Monetary Fund is calling for a very tough reform program for the population. For the investment bank Morgan Stanley, Tunisia is doomed to default. Morgan Stanley warned about Tunisia’s inability to meet its obligations to creditors, warning that Tunisia will default on its debts if the current deterioration in the state’s public finances continues. He believes this could happen next year unless the country quickly reaches a program with the IMF and initiates deep spending cuts. Even the credit rating agency Fitch downgraded the Tunisian sovereign debt rating to (CCC) from (B-).
Now we have to wait for Saied’s next move. Article 72 of the Constitution provides for the holding of legislative elections within a period of 45 to 90 days from the date of entry into force of the decision to dissolve the legislative institution.
Tomorrow will be a very crucial day politically for the Ukraine War scenario. There will be elections in both Hungary and Serbia, two countries that have not embraced the US-EU and NATO narrative for Ukraine. As one can predict, CIA-MI6 and other affiliated intel agencies will have their dirty hands involved in assuring a positive outcome for their governments and not for the people of Hungary and Serbia. Pakistan is also undergoing a potential coup right now with elements in the ruling government coalition wanting a no-confidence vote for PM Imran Khan, a staunch opponent of US interventionism.
And why are Hungary and Serbia “crucial” for Ukraine and NATO?
Of course American troglodytes do not need to understand, MIC and perhaps Hollywood will provide the “right” answers at the “right” moment. Anyway, more bitter fruits of the Arab Spring manipulation, with a predictable famine at the gates…
Hopefully he’ll call elections because otherwise the legitimacy of the president, who has many backers inside the country, mostly opponents of Ennadha, and I feel also has the backing of Algeria (while Ennadha is rather yet another Turkish stooge, surely also backed by pathetic but West-pampered Morocco as well), will be at the stake. Nobody wants another Ben Ali (secular but too tyrannical).
In the worst case scenario, he’ll become the local Al Sissi, probably spawning unrest and maybe an extension of the Libyan civil war. That could be very bad.
The whole of North Africa is about to explode, I fear: first was Libya and the failed attempt at “liberating” Tripolu by the Parliament-backed government of Bengazhi, which almost triggered open war between Turkey and France, active backers of each side, then it was the reopening of the war of liberation of West Sahara (where my sympathies are 100% with the Polisario Front, which are apparently winning at this assymetrical war of attrition) and then the very related military tension between Algeria and Morocco, which is (like the Russo-Ukrainian conflict) strongly related to gas supplies to Europe, in this case Spain (whose government’s pathetic stand behind Morocco just got them, us because I’m affected too, a price rise) and Italy (which is capitaliing the better relation with Algeria and neutral stand in the West Saharan War), and then came the Tunisian instability cum presidential self-putsch.
Honestly this scares me a bit more than Ukraine, which seems tough but relatively “under control”. North Africa can easily explode in an all out multi-pronged war at any moment.
The spat between Algeria and moroco is not frightning unless the US gets involved. Like they were involved in Libya and ruined the entire nation. The only thing that worries me in north africa right now is Famine because of the War in europe. But a direct conflict between Algeria and Morocco is very unlikely.
Israel has warned Algeria, France has been participating in military exercises with Morocco at the Algerian border, Spain (a natural enemy of Morocco) has shamefully shifted diplomacy to propose that West Sahara is finally annexed by Morocco…
The USA is already intervening from behind, it’s been intervening since the 70s, when the West Sahara problem began. Remember: the biggest by far potash mine on Earth is in West Sahara, for Sahrawis it’s their land, for all the rest it’s apparently only a hugely rich “guano island” of sorts.
You say direct conflict Algeria-Morocco is “very unlikely”, I say it can explode at any moment.
correct except about conflict between Algeria/morroco. Algeria is hostile to Morrocan imperialism but this does not mean armed conflict will occur
Algeria has twice made major military exercises at the Moroccan border, the last ones responded by also major French-Moroccan military drillls. There was a moment last year, after Algeria accused Morocco of causing wildfires via the Kabyle independence guerrilla when it was very close, so close that Israel directly threatened Algeria.
Good, post. My girlfriend is from Tunisia and right now she’s on a plane to meet her parents who are also visiting family in Paris. Her parents also do not like the parliament and grudgingly support the President, whom many others also support. Another badly divided society.
Yeah, thanks to Maju, for an update, not much comes from this region in the western hemisphere, but I think you are right, unfortunatly for the peoples in this respective nations, and IMF ( the International Mo Fo) ready to feed any Gov with hughe amounts of uh… cash, witch by an miracle disapears, simply evaporates and in the ends is just enough to a lay down a strip of asphalt or two, huh, while the same Gov have to take the mooney from the people to the Bankers for their cash…. sorry nations debt.
This, what happens in Noth Africa is what have happened all over the world, for decades, and corruption is unbelivable high, and destorys nations from within along with their playing along with the west, regarding the wars in the past, and Western Sahara, sufferes much as the same destiny that befell Yemen, a war nobody cares about, because its run by Our Assholes and Dicks, and somehow the virtue waving scums of the west not waisted a second on that, their nations are destroyed and my question is, to the people, do you not see whats going on, the west is decomosing right infront of our eyes, degrading and degeneating, insane political narratives have destroyed what was left, the after math of years of lockdowns, the wurst is, how easy european economy is going to be destoryed, by them selfs, by bowing to the WH, whom of course in this sactional times gives exemptions to their own nations companys while Europa bleeds, whines and gnashes teeths, yeah, what to expect from bitches.
You have to cutt the chains to the empire, witch is now, gone rough, cant be trusted, steals/confiscates assets to private propertys while you may gloth over Russians, by now and if you didnt get the facts this happened to people in Canada to. You should seek new alignments, to make sure you get better deals, an path to restore your homeland, to be independent and nationalise resourcess. I hope the Malians unite, it would create a presedence in the Sahel regions, fighting for liberation from the old world imperialism, aka France. Power to the people.
peace
He was late, but better late than never. Most of Tunisians want to see the terrorist organization of Al Nahdha demolished. He could have done that in the first week after the 25th of July but he was afraid of the dictatorship accusations. The dude is no dictator. If he left those thugs in power, they would have demolished the country more than they already done for 10 years already. They Infiltrated and corrupted every single level of the government. Dealing with them is like dealing with Cancer, and of course they are backed by the United Snakes.
If he didn’t have the support of his people and the biggest union in the country the USA would have bombed the country for freedom and shit as usual. Tunisia is going to have a referendum on july 25th and elections on December 17th. The Instability in Tunisia started on Dec 17 2010. The economy was going downhill since that day. The west has poured billions of dollars like 3 times the GDP of the nation in 2010 and we did not see any kind of improvement. Al nahdha thugs have transformed a part of the Tunisian society into hardcore terrorists and sent them To Syria (Tunisia has become the world’s first Terrorist exporter, a shame).
The corruption is so deep into the state “thanks to them” that it will take us around 40 years to clean the mess. The President has no party, no affiliation, not backed by any government and especially not the US. He doesn’t have the required “tool” to become a dictator. His only power is that the vast majority of the population is with him against Al Nahdha. I never saw a “political” party as hated as this, not even the RDC of Ben Ali. Also, the army doesn’t take part in any political activity unlike egypt.
He dissolved the parliament which was already frozen btw since July 25th after clear reports of a coup and disturbances in some parts of the countries where some cops were calling for an armed conflict. Hell, even some of Al Nahdha terrorist members were saying that clear and loud on facebook the same day. People started sharing their screenshots and calling for a move to finish them.
About the so-called parliament, it was full of black-market dealers, mafia members, Thugs, some people have prison sentences and got into the parliament to evade the punishment. When the French professor got his head shopped in France many “law makers” were cheering live on TV and calling it a great day! I can go for days like this talking about the bombings of Sousse and Mounastir in the 80s by Al nahdha, the use of vitriol attacks against a simple building guardian. The Infiltration of the army to prepare a coup against Bourguiba…
PS: the picture up there is Libya not Tunisia
dear author, what a nonsense! the so called western democracy brings only death and starvation, hand in hand with the corruption. parlament is a useless body to serve as a smoke screen for gullible people.
If I see IMF money, or EU or WB/US money in game, then the war is not far away.
The great irony. The Arab Spring began in Tunesia, from there it spread to other Arab countries, most notably Egypt, Yemen, Bahrain and Syria. And in each of those countries it turned those countries into turmoil, with strong dictators either returning or retaining power. And now the cycle is complete.
The cycle is never complete: there are no real “cycles” but a spiral. History is like a very long screw always moving forward in circles that are only apparent.
You stupid piero messina, the photo is in Libya not Tunisia. If you don’t make such a difference how can you write a whole article ? And we Tunisian prefer a dictatorship rather than a muslim brothers regime manipulated by the West.