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The situation in Idlib has long been shaped by the balance of talks between Russia and Turkey, and to a lesser extent Iran.
The bifurcation point was the Sochi Agreement of 2018, when Russia and Iran recognized Turkey’s right to control the situation in Idlib until the end of the war, up to the formation of the Constitutional Committee and presidential elections, while Ankara agreed to accept Syrian President Bashar al-Assad if he wins the elections.
Turkey had to do three things for that to happen: separate the actual terrorists from the “moderate opposition” and remove all heavy weapons from the area, unblock the Hama-Aleppo and Latakia-Aleppo routes (while the surrounding area remained in control of militants) and ensure that the de-escalation zone is actually effective, in conjunction with the Russian military.
Turkey didn’t carry out any of its obligations, irrespective if it could or it couldn’t.
As the Syrian Arab Army cleared other territories of Syria, the situation in Idlib did not fundamentally change.
A year after Sochi, part of the rural Idlib was taken from the militants. Erdogan did not understand which way the wind was blowing, he had a tactic and he adhered to it.
The Syrian government constantly demanded that Russia give the go-ahead for the offensive, and in the end, it got it, and the operation in Idlib began.
A situation arose, in which Turkey could come to the negotiation table for a post-war Syria without Idlib. This, in the long run would weaken the negotiating position of Turkey and its ability to influence the formation of post-war Syria.
Ankara began issuing complaints to Moscow and point out that the Syrian Arab Army is surrounding its observation posts and violates the Sochi agreement.
Moscow pointed out that Turkey did nothing for 1.5 years to fulfill the main points of the Sochi agreement, and thus, Assad’s government is in his own right.
And while Erdogan was stirring up drama and spreading propaganda in media, the Syrian government, with the support of Russia and Iran, took part of the negotiation asset from Erdogan, thereby changing the potential balance of negotiations on post-war Syria.
Because, it is in the Syrian government’s interest to have as little possible territory outside of its control when the war ends, since that would mean making as few concessions as possible.
By February, Turkey’s strategic loss was obvious, the front of the militants fell apart, dozens of cities began to be liberated, and due to the position of Russia and Iran, any logical moves within the framework of the Turkish Idlib strategy ended.
If Turkey continued to operate as it did before, the Syrian Arab Army would simply surround all Turkish observation posts and within a few months would go to the border with Turkey along the entire border of the Idlib province.
Therefore, tactics and an attempt to stir up the water through threats, supplying ATGMs and MANPADS to militants, attempts to put pressure on the Kremlin and flirting with the United States with the accompanying rhetoric in the media were employed.
Turkey signals that it is not happy with how the situation in Idlib is developing and is trying to force Russia to change course from pursuing a strategic plan to clean up Idlib and make it respond to Turkish threats and blackmail.
At the current stage, Russia has ignored the Turkish threats, saying that Turkey itself is to blame for what is happening, and that the Syrian government has the right to continue the offensive, essentially adhering to the line of behavior that ensured the latest operational and strategic successes.
Thus, the ball was thrown back to Erdogan. Since Turkey’s Idlib policy has reached an impasse at a strategic level, Erdogan raises rhetoric and slowly raises the bets by attacking the Syrian Arab Army.
So far, that’s led to the deaths of Turkish soldiers and absolutely no success whatsoever, it’s also failed to lead to any change in Russian attitude.
Hence the “strange” position of Ankara – it has no problems with Russia and it does not want to spoil relations with Russia, it only has problems with the Syrian government.
But it is no secret that Russia and Iran are behind Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and they will not stop supporting him, since he is cementing the positions of Russia and Iran in Syria.
Turkey is signaling that it wants to come to an agreement with Russia, but at this stage it is not happy with the proposal of Moscow, which reasonably believes that Erdogan is acting from a position of weakness, so there is no point in drastically changing the strategy or giving Erdogan more than he has leverage for.
In fact, Erdogan was left face to face with serious problems, where on the one hand there is a risk of a clash with Russia and Iran, as well as spoiled relations with the United States, Israel and Germany, and on the other hand – a declining rating within Turkey, increased opposition and the threat of losing face in Syria.
Moreover, Turkey is now conducting essentially 4 separate military campaigns – in Libya, in Idlib, in Syia and in Iraq. In general, this is a classic example of military-political adventurism.
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Erdogan has made increased commitments and is faced with the fact that it is difficult for him to fight off Bashar al-Assad’s claims supported by Russia, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar’s pressure on Government of National Accord in Libya, sanctions pressure and a policy of threats from the United States.
Therefore, currently the situation is such that Turkey’s direct military threats are met with counterthreats, and in the case of Syria, the Turkish military is also being subject to attacks.
Therefore, Erdogan follows a predetermined trajectory, alternating threats and provocations with attempts to force Moscow to make concessions.
The issue is that, Moscow isn’t negotiation from a place of weakness, and Erdogan keeps driving himself into a corner, which would ultimately lead to a choice of either war or shame in Syria.
Moreover, the potential for escalation may be aggravated by the possibility of intervention by other countries that are objectively interested in destroying the situational Russian-Turkish-Iranian partnership in Syria.
First of all, are the USA and Israel. And in this case, the very “negative scenarios” may arise when the game of rhetoric and threats comes to an end due to an escalation.
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So you are in a sovereign country and making threats to attack its military? Just your illegal presence alone should have gotten you killed.
” So you are in a sovereign country and making threats to attack its military”
Exactly , and this strategy is straight out of the ‘US Military Plunder Playbook’.
More like a template from the Zionist creeping annexation of Palestine aimed at changing the geography and demographics.
Yes, indeed. Its an age old strategy of occupation and plunder.
The dumb Turkeys have bitten more than they can chew. SAA circa 2020 is not the SAA of 2011. It has revamped into a very motivated and lean fighting force and has very strong and committed allies in Russia, Iran, Hezbollah and Shia, Palestinian and trans Islamic militias. Hezbollah alone now can field 125,000 men and the demographic pool will attract volunteers from the wider Arab world to fight the hated Turkeys. Why to think Egypt after Iran is the second nation to fly planes into liberated Aleppo. The goat fucker ErDOGan will get a cooked Turkey.
You are one dirty filthy motherfuker cu… t poisonous Cockroaches..end is coming do not get excited anymore.just go sit Erdoğan on dick and spin around and can carry on singing goat fu.. er. goat fu.. er goat fu.. er
Whose is the terrorist supporting cockroaches? Turkey!
Facts are like so: Turkey protecting Al Nusrah. Turkey cockblocking peace in syria for ISRAEL. Did you hear that you are doing ISRAEL’S bitch work, and your too stupid to see it. Turkey has weaponized refugeee, refugees that were created by turkeys support to terrorists from DAY 1. You wont fool any of us, we know whose hand up your colòn
Well stated facts. The Turks are impersonating Baghdad Bob to a greater degree.
I always preferred him by his other name “Comical Ali” Lol
Facts are always a bitch in the Court of Public Opinion, Mike.
This is the reason of course, that Warlord thugs everywhere are unrepentant liars. Erdo is a blatant example of this, as are Hillary Clinton and Trump.
Hi Mustafa, Erdogan has threatened Russia and Syria of an imminent large military operation – the objectives I assume would be to push the SAA and allies out of Idlib. Erdogan is also seeking US/NATO support and further, Erdogan has made explicit that the operation will not be deterred by threat of Russian intervention.
Personally, I do not think Erdogan is bluffing. In Russia, I have my suspicions the Russian military have asserted themselves regarding Russia’s response to this developing ‘worst case scenario’ or more bluntly, this s__t show – and it seems Russia is preparing to go to war with Turkey, unless of course Erdogan backs down – I do not see this happening as developments are digging the parties into deeper holes.
Of course the US sees an opportunity here to salvage some kind of win in Syria. Well get yours seats and popcorn for the movie When nuclear states collide! What could possibly go wrong? For answer, watch the fifties sci-fi movie When Worlds Collide!
Putting aside the risks of direct conflict between nuclear states, what do you think of these developments and do you think Erdogan will attack with sufficient strength to succeed even if Russia intervenes forcefully. How would that play out from Turkey’s perspective?
Mustafa the Turkey can only use dirty words in this situation. We all understand this. But now that he has got rid of his Bullsh.t, he may sit down again. And btw: The cockroaches are the dumb Turkeys who go to Syria to participate in a warcrime, on the side of beheaders and terrorists.
In case you didn’t know where Turkey is, SF is pointing a few arrows at it
SF is doing very good job pointing out the moronic fallacies of Turkeys and their sponsorship of terrorism and the most blatant disregard for international law by invading a peaceful sovereign Arab/Muslim neighbor Syria. Erdogan besides being a goat fucker is a moron who will get the Turkey cooked.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/7f9f21104aa62e18e5f19369b1d1c3ef25a8e0da0eba0154bf3ff60a04075a81.jpg
Erdogan had this cartoon banned in Turkey but it is proving very popular around the world.
Does that make Putin a bear fcuker?
Pervert Erdogan molesting Turkey.
The pic is a work of Colonel Cassad:
https://colonelcassad.livejournal.com/
The article first appeared there.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yUG0f4ciytM
Real music https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g6ym2Fu6d74
Two things have been obvious durring the last month: 1.The pro-Assad news outlets started overexaggerating the rebel losses as never before.Every attack by rebels leaves hundreds of rebels dead and tens of tanks/armored vehicles destroyed by SAA according to Pro-Outlets.Sign of need to boost the morale of own troops and compensation/justification of own apparent huge losses. 2. Air/Anti-Air is the crucial thing now in the conflict.Turkish airspace is now closed for Russian planes and they need to fly via Iran/Iraq already.If US closes Iraqi airspace it will be impossible for Russia to resupply.In case of direct conflict between Russia and Turkey,bosphorus is closed for good.Turkey made a huge mistake by buying the russian s400.
Never underestimate Russians.
No one is underestimating Russians,but Russians are far from beeing able to project their military power far from their border as they lack the military means for it.One Aircraftcarrier with 20 airplanes isnt much in a global theatre.
There is direct land route from Armenia and Iran.
to Erbil?
No on the Mehran-Baquba four lane highway from where Iran has moved thousands of Shia militiamen into Syria and Iranian trucks pass freely as pro-Iran militias control it. Russia has been using Armenian and Hamadan air base anyway and it is a very short flight from Yerevan.
Its an US controlled airspace…
US won’t be shooting down Russian planes unless it wants WW3. Russia will not abandon Syria and will tilt more and more towards Iran which is the real kingmaker in Iraq.
I dont get you people living in that bubble of yours…Are you suggesting that a Russian airplane can cross US controlled airspace without US permission?
From where do you think Russian Tu-22M3 long-range bombers and Su-34 frontline bombers are coming from, flying with a full bomb load from the Hamedan air base. Even Iranian aircraft fly daily sorties to Syria.
With US permission…but suggesting its something that they dont have to ask the US for permission is ridiculous.
US permission to Iran , don’t believe so.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZeyMeAIgt80
Yes,you right,my mistake.US Airforce is scared of the Iranian Airforce hence they can violate US controlled airspace at their will.I didnt saw that video before…it opened my eyes blinded by westerns spy propaganda,thank you!
Indeed, and Iranians did not fire missiles at any US bases in Iraq either.
They nr.1 worldpower now,thank you for pointing that out.Imagine us,rest of the world,not beeing Iranian and not realizing that fact.
get back to call of duty kiddo
Sure,24 trillion debted hero and pro lgbtq low iq unconstituate sore loser regime! usa now a 3rd rate nation at best,us dolla maybe so,but on life support thats it!
No.#1 world power at attacking and invading small countries with limited means of defense. The U.S. doesn’t take on grown-ups.
your a wanker seriously low iq bot,no clue about international law dumbass!
USA ARE POWERLESS EXCEPT WHERE USA BASES ARE HAVE SOME SAY!
Fuck off Ivan! :)
https://twitter.com/ibrashino/status/1230218147938082818
Grow up their missiles even their mach 3 fighters are too quick for usas(period)
But in reality regions above iraq are their nots usas just like iraqs pending iraq!
The U.S. air contingent is actually small. And Iraq continues to deny permission for the Patriot batteries to be deployed and even if they were they’d hardly be a good match for cruise missiles. Russia can fly where she wants as long as she’s prepared to mix it up. If Russia puts Mig-31’s as top cover over any air convoy above Iraq the U.S. would be hard pressed to stop them. The Mig-31 is faster and higher flying than any plane in the U.S. arsenal and has air to air missiles that far outrange American weapons. Do some basic research on who actually has what.
With what the patriots??? LMAO
Usa has no authority not control in any cis+eurasian northern regions(period) Go back to 5th grade complete your studys,russia rules those regions not usa! By the way russia is the #1 atomic energy powerhouse on planet earth ok!
The Caspian sea fleets can easily hit any target in idlib with kalibr missiles. Air craft carriers are now more a liability than an asset, i would avoid using that as a measure of peer to peer streength.
You cant shoot missiles over someones airspace and teritory as you wish,its called war if you do it.
And who is gonna do it? Iraq? I assuming that Iran will allow cruise missiles over their territory, that leaves Iraq, you think Iraq gonna stop them? Or has the ability to stop them? Or they will declare war at Russia for this? With what army.
Russia can easily obliterate any turkish target if they choose to with hundreds, even thousands of cruise missiles launching by subs/ships(Kalibr NK), bombers with Kh-101, even the older Kh-55/Kh-555 which are thousands in stock, even the Iskander in Syria can be used for that which btw is not the export version of 280km but the Russian version which has double the range and bigger warhead and better accuracy(7m CEP which is amazing for ballistic missile).
With what army? With the US Army.
US cant do shit because has no authority in Iraq. Tell me something if Russia does launch cruise missiles and they fly through Iraqi airspace even without Iraqi approval, what US is going to do?
Shoot it down maybe?
Yeah good luck with that, with the Patriot? I bet it will have no more than 10% success judging how bad the Patriot system has worked so far, the problem with US air-defences is that US never developed a system like Pantsir/Tor/Buk that are design specifically to shoot down this type of missiles. In order to stop a huge cruise missile attack from air/sea/land with the Patriot you gonna have to fire hundreds and hundreds interceptors and still they will have limited success.
Simply put, US don’t have the means to stop russian cruise or ballistic(Iskander) missiles in Iraq.
Yea,very effective.Israel proves their effectiveness every week.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/3b33a0cfb9cef94d6afcea978168649d03975806449b5dc8b6ddde630fba9113.gif
Lol really are you 10yo? They managed to destroy one Pantsir after thousands of raids over all this years which the Pantsir systems probably shot down hundreds, even thousands of missiles and bombs and you call it success?
Are you really that dump or you pretend to just because you don’t like what you hear. They managed to destroy one Pantsir after of course the system already intercept a dozen or so Israeli cruise missiles and guided bombs. No one said that the Pantsir or any air defence weapon for that matter is unkillable. Trust me, if Pantsir finally got saturated after shooting down so many missiles, imagine how much more easily is to saturate a Patriot system which is not design for that kind of threats. Also don’t forget that a weapon is good as long the men are good enough to use it, Syrian crews did many mistakes, in that case the Pantsir had ran out of missiles and was off, you can see that because the radar is not rotating, and instead of moving it for reload in a safe position, they left it there and waiting the reload truck to go there. Thats what bad training crews do.
Its five Pantsirs so far.Never saw a single missile that it shot down.
Its 2 Pantsirs and I have seen many many missiles been shot down. Either you are blind or more likely you do ridiculous propaganda thinking that all the rest of us are idiots.
It was two. Both systems were responsible for shooting down dozens of Israeli missiles. They did what they were designed to do. They’re weapons of war, not magic or immune to counterfire.
and only because the Pantsir was being reloaded at the time of attack… great achievement
Which is what we’re talking about. Warfare. If Russia and Turkey are fighting than Russia won’t need permission to launch missiles over Turkey’s airspace. Or to fly aircraft over Turkey’s airspace. Syria is within the flight range of Russia’s fighters if they fly over Turkey and the Turks would struggle to stop them.
Lack of military means?Not very intelligent,fk no! Russia turned infamous carrier to fishing trawler,fired missiles from capsian,usa sht! Since late 2015 since russia intervene by legit request,have literally rumbled the curse set upon by bush/odummer eras which are way inferior in every respect nowadays to have the final say,so whilst your stuck in 20 th century yester years arrogant yet debt rotted to core mindset,russias allready toward 22nd centurys!
What Nonsense!…Russian air force and Naval aviation are doing military flights over Black sea using TU-22M3, Su 30/ 35/24 and Mig 31….so they dont need air carrier…just TU 22M3 can wipe off Turkish air bases using long range missiles KH-22/32( 600-1000km) and even Khinzal!…also they can be supported by Kalibr cruise missile launched by ships, submarines from Black sea,Mediterranean and Caspian sea!…another packs of attacks can be carry by Tu-160/95 using cruise missile….therefore Russia can kill terrorist and the head of the snake( Turkey) at the same time!
Turkey cannot afford to lose Russian Gas let alone Russian Tourists. Having some thousands head choppers as pet Killers is not compatible with those above. In the end Money wins and sooner or later the head choppers will meet their fate.
On top of that Erdogan knows very well that between him and a Coloured Regime Change there is only Russia …
They can afford it if the US steps in and compensates.Not without the US tho.The question is rather if the Russians can afford it in that case to create further hostilities at their borders and to be further cornered both economicaly and geopoliticaly,and all over a shithole in the middle of nowhere.
really??? US is going to send 5 MILLION visitors to turkey? Because thats how manu Russians visits it each year.. US is also going to send it 10’s of Billions in gas transit fees and ultra cheap gas for its industries? As we see the poles paying more than double the price for US gas compared to Russian gas.. Its actually Russian gas bought by US companies and sold to the poles while pocketing the huge profits..
Not only that but the US is arming the kurds with thousands of trucks full of weapons to steal a third of turkey like it did with Syria..
You got to be mighty retarded to give up on those sympathetic to you even in some small ways and side with those who want to skin you alive.. erdoggie was never intelligent enough to get over his greed but his demented psychopathic behaviour is more liek someone that should be in a straight jacket.
it is a Little preposterous of you to say that (I Quote) ” to be further cornered both economicaly and geopoliticaly,” of a Country of the size of Russia with a ground border to China and a extremely good relation with them. Just to wrap up: – only Nation able to reduce in ashes U$A (and the whole planet in the process) – gas, oil and strong agriculture, what they do not have in house they go in China to buy, delivered by rail by the way, so goodbye Mighty U$A Navy – culture based on Family with one mother and one Father
Basically Russia is God, Motherland and Family: all resources you need to live, plenty of weapons and above all soldiers willing to fight to defend the Rodina. What did you say about “Corner”?
Turkey is bankrupt terrorist supporting Pakistan of the Levant.
You can’t even deal with Pakistan let alone turkey ashok.. go and feed you people first
US has no authority to close Iraqi airspace.
Legaly not,you right.But de-facto it does.
Well if the Iraqi gov has no problem with Russian planes passing through their airspace, the only way for US to stop any Russian planes is if they try to shoot them down, which can lead to war, I doubt if US will try something like that.
Yea,Iraq is very indenpendent when it comes to US.Hahaha
It doesn’t matter, its illegal any US action without the legitimate gov approval but my question remain, what US is gonna do.
Actually Russia knows about it and its bombers are escorted by long range air superiority fighters over syrian and iraqi air spaces….
I know that, bombers never go alone, what I’m asking from Adi to answer me is what US is going to do? Are they gonna stop the russian planes using force? Which if they do, in that case US is taking the risk to have their own jets shot down as well and start a bigger war. Do they really want that? I doubt it.
Well two Su-24’s and two Russian cargolifters just transited two days ago. The U.S. doesn’t like it but Iraq no longer cares, at least not right now.
Serves the fucker right. ;o)
You got to be kidding.. Watch some of ANNA videos which are embedded on the front lines with the SAA.. I never seen kids with such high morals and bravery.. These are not raw conscripts but trained soldiers in high spirits. They have taken back most of their country from hundreds of thousands of terrorist invaders against overwhelming odds and now just a small part of it left. They have also seen how the TAF fares against ISIS and YPG.. Turks might scare regular SAA conscripts but the professional SAA like D4 and TF will wipe the floor with TAF and its special forces.
Actually the SAA was exaggerating its own losses to prepare for this offensive. Hundreds of SAA have been killed by terrorist attacks but not in each of the hundreds of attacks..
i am sorry sir but you are an idiot :)
and judging from your knowledge of a world map, you must be an yankee
Iraqi airspace was closed to Russian overflights previously. Then, The U.S. began attacking Shia militia groups in Iraq and we all know what they did inside Iraq on January 3. Iraq, unable to make the U.S. leave has now permitted Russian overflights again. With the ongoing standoff and unhappiness with the United States why would Iraq listen to any demand the U.S. makes? If it does kick off into warfare between Turkey and Russia then Russia won’t have to fly over Iraq to get to Syria. Russian aircraft can fly right over Turkey.
Turkey since Ottoman era has overestimated its capabilities and has now created an unnecessary quagmire for itself in Syria. But Erdogan a street hustler thug, without quite realizing it, also made itself the de facto ruler of this part of Syria. The responsibility seems more of a quagmire than the Turkish government originally expected as the terrorists it sponsored are not up to the job, as the Israeli occupation forces in South Lebanon found with their SLA quislings.
Turks may be stuck in northern Syria, unable to fully pull out for domestic political reasons and Erdogan’s wilting megalomania. However, they can’t sustain the rising human and financial cost of a prolonged occupation that is facing increasingly determined resistance from Syria and its allies. Also the security situation in the terrorist held enclave is rapidly deteriorating under Erdogan’s occupation, and displaced civilians trying to move back across the closed border. Turkey may have signed up for a long-term occupation and the natural resistance that comes along with all colonial mis-adventurism.
Erdo finds himself in a Zugzwang. I will repeat – the more he jerks the deeper he sinks.
That is a very sound assessment and most serious analysts would agree with you. The Turkish misadventure in Syria is not sustainable. The Israelis, who are far more powerful and have 100% US support could not hang on to South Lebanon and had to flee due to high casualties. Turkey is far more weaker and beset with internal political and economic problems and no European will die for Turkey. The Turks in Germany are already being targeted by far right movements.
To save his skin, Erdo will have to prostrate himself on the soft sands of war and crawl out of Syria.
The alternative, as you rightly say, is to be suffocated in a grave that none will visit.
On the contrary, Moscow has everything to lose while Turkey has lots more to gain. We shall see.
You are comparing a great power like Russia with bankrupt Turkey.
Erdogone is to stubborn and to fanatic to change course…..instead he will double down even more. He is diggin his shit hole ( chaos ) even deeper and hoping for a miracle in the chaos.
Here is an excellent analysis by Scott Ritter Turkey faces strategic defeat in Idlib after failing to live up to its commitments on Syria https://www.rt.com/op-ed/481197-turkey-idlib-syria-sochi-agreement/
Turkey is a terrorist.
So India ??
relax and eat döner.
he erdo slave you are a terrorists lover.the day that you cry comming soon ,many terrorists in bodybags .
turkey = REAL ISIS !!! (500 years of devsirme childabduction)
turkey HAS TO GET SHATTERED 4 PEACE !!!
You forgot to mention the Stand off on Cyprus , where France now has sent is biggest War ship the Hangar Vessel Charles de Gaulle
The danger is choosing war over shame. It presents a grim prospect for Syria, the region and the world. History is scattered with examples of powers destroying themselves in an attempt to save themselves. https://www.ghostsofhistory.wordpress.com/ https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/d843b92814b3f0c755369d1c8febcab531be6f268ed76d2c59895dbfe3748df8.jpg
With DS Brennan, HRC, and the dead song bird of the Hanoi Hilton removed out of the game (thanks to PDJT), Erdogan talked a big game, but without those clowns, he’s all nothing but hot air. Brennan, HRC, McStain and Erdogan were the ISIS clowns, Erdogan’s freebies dried up, he needs to tuck his tail between his legs and whimper back to his dog house.