The Turkish-backed militants have declared a military zone in the Al Bab countryside in Syria (look at the map above). This move clearly depicts the fact that the Turkey-led forces are aiming to seize this strategic city from the ISIS terrorist group. ISIS has answered with sending reinforcements to al-Bab and its countryside in order to prepare for clashes for the area.
On September 6, the Turkey-led forces captured Tal Al-Hawa, Al-Rawdah, Al Mustafa Al Kabir, Cub Al Dam, Al Masammah, Al Humayrah, Haydar Basa from ISIS. According to pro-Kurdish sources the operations will be also continued south of the Al-Rai-Tuzel axis.
Taking advantage of this situation in North of Al Bab , SAA should try to capture it. They seem to be very near to Al Bab’s south i.e. Qweries airforce base.
The russians, the regime and Erdogan have some kind of understanding. Anyway, this isn’t the time to attempt another landgrab against ISIS, this is a time to try to consolidate around Damascus, to isolate Aleppo fully by taking over Khan Tuman and steadily clear out the other pockets of resistance in Homs and Hama areas.
There are various reports that indicate the objective of Turkey is not only to prevent the establishment of a Kurdish state (an objective of the U.S./NATO bloc involving the establishment of a Kurdish client state from a partitioned Syria) but to secure a supply route (masquerading as a ‘humanitarian route’) to Turkish supported militant groups conducting operations against Assad aligned forces.
– “The invasion is also part of a longstanding project by Turkey of creating a “safe-haven” within Northern Syria which can be used to extend [military operations] Southwards into Syria’s heartland….. Washington’s longstanding objective is to create a Kurdish State in Northern Syria, within the framework of a territorial breakup of both Syria and Iraq…… New Ottoman objective of territorial expansion encroaches upon Washington’s design to fragment Iraq, Syria, Iran as well as Turkey. In other words, America’s ultimate imperial design is to weaken Turkey as a regional power….. The Pentagon has defined a military roadmap: “The road to Tehran goes through Damascus.” The invasion of Northern Syria creates conditions for a broader war.” (US-NATO-Turkey Invasion of Northern Syria: CIA “Failed” Turkey Coup Lays Groundwork for Broader Middle East War?, By Prof Michel Chossudovsky, August 29, 2016)
– “Idlib is not an acceptable supply route from Turkey to forces in Aleppo province because the Turkish-Syrian border in Idlib is mountainous terrain – small and bad roads and then long routes all the way through Idlib past SAA held territory into Aleppo province. The Jarablus Corridor north of Aleppo is and has always been absolutely vital for the insurgency,. That’s why Turkey, Brookings, etc have always placed so much priority on a no fly zone there. Now its come to realisation.” In other words the Turkish capture of Jarablus before it could be captured by the YPG was not primarily intended to prevent the linking together of two areas within Syria under Kurdish control – though that may have been a secondary factor – but was primarily intended to secure the main supply route (or “ratline”) Turkey uses to supply the Jihadi fighters attacking Aleppo….. As Mark Sleboda has also pointed out to me, creating this rebel “safe zone” within Syria has been a declared Turkish objective for over a year….. With the move to Jarablus and beyond now carried out with US support and through Russian acquiescence obtained by stealth, the Turks have now achieved it….. the Turkish move into Syria should bury once and for all any idea that Turkey is in the process of undertaking a geopolitical realignment away from the West and towards the Eurasian powers….. That is not the action of a country in the process of carrying out a realignment and preparing to switch alliances from the West to Beijing and Moscow.” (Erdogan Calls Putin as Russia Seethes at Turkey’s Syrian Incursion, Saker,August 29, 2016)
– “Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose government is currently leading an invasion in the north of Syria [responded] to the fighting by suggesting that Turkish troops could clear a humanitarian corridor to Aleppo. He reiterated his call for a “safe zone” between the towns of Jarabulus and Azaz….” (Syrian war threatens to escalate as Obama-Putin talks fail, By Jordan Shilton, 7 September 2016)
– “Russia and Iran had agreed to the Turkish move into the area after Turkey promised to end its support for attacks on Aleppo city. It has yet to be seen if Turkey will stick to this promise. Some of the Turkish proxy fighters involved in the attack on Aleppo were pulled back and moved to the now occupied border strip. But material support for the attack in form of ammunition and other supplies seems to continue….. Russia can use the Kurds against Turkey should Erdogan try to play foul. A few anti-tank or anti-air weapons smuggled into Turkey’s east from Armenia will hurt the Turkish army in its fight against the local PKK. The Turkish conscript army, already weakened through purges after the recent coup, cannot absorb high casualties without alarming the Turkish public” (How the Turkish Syria Invasion Is a Win for Russia, Russia Insider/Moon of Alabama, 06/09/2016)
As with the U.S., Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Israel, etc., Turkey maintains that “Assad must go”. The preferred mechanism is through ongoing/escalating proxy warfare operations. The seeming manipulation of the Russian Federation through a (disingenuous) ‘reset’ of relations (as the U.S. also previously employed) has facilitated a long established objective of creating a ‘corridor’ into Syria.
You have it exactly. This invasion, maintains the supply line to ISIS jihadists in Syria and Iraq. A set back for Syria and Russia, definitely not a gain. The SAA east of Aleppo and the Kurdish troops in Manbj , only have 30 – 40 km separating them. If Turkish troops move south of Al Bab , they could go all the way to Dayr az Zawr under the pretext of beating ISIS but really just giving them a “name change”. This looks pre-planned by the US and Turkey. There is little real fighting going on, they are just changing uniforms. 4 dead – right !
If the SAA , had the manpower and an agreement with the Kurds, they could still close those 30 k south of Al Bab. Russia on the other hand, could land a force to close that gap, and simultaneously send Erdogan a firm message. Russia and Syria are allies.
Putin saved the Islamic dictator of the Turkish Empire. And now the world is going to have to pay for it. Just because the Russians were so desperate to restore relations with Turkey lol
i don’t believe it for a second