United States special envoy for Syria Tom Barrack warned on October 20 that Israel could resume war on Lebanon if the country fails to disarm Hezbollah, all while another wave of strikes hit the heartland of the group in the south of the country.
Barrack made the warning in a lengthy opinion piece on the prospect of peace in the Middle East that he published on his X account.
“Should Beirut continue to hesitate, Israel may act unilaterally – and the consequences would be grave,” cautioned Barrack.
“If Beirut fails to act, Hizballah’s military arm will inevitably face major confrontation with Israel at a moment of Israel’s strength and Iran backed Hizballah’s weakest point,” wrote Barrack, who is also the U.S. envoy to Turkey.
A range of U.S.-backed initiatives in Lebanon meant to nudge Lebanon toward peace with Israel “have stalled,” Barrack lamented.
In August, the Lebanese government approved a plan to disarm Hezbollah in line with a proposal presented by Barrack. And in September, the government announced that it has begun to implement the plan.
Hezbollah, however, rejected any talk of disarmament and the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) continued to launch strikes against the country, as it has been doing since a ceasefire brokered by the U.S. entered into effect last November. The ceasefire ended a confrontation that was initiated by the group more than a year earlier in support of its ally Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
In fact, another wave of strikes hit southern Lebanon right after Barrack published his opinion piece, with the IDF claiming responsibility.
“The Hezbollah terror organization continues its attempts to rebuild terrorist infrastructure throughout Lebanon,” the military said in a statement, adding that “the presence of terror infrastructure and the activity of the Hezbollah terror organization in the area constitute a violation of the understandings between Israel and Lebanon.”
The strikes targeted the outskirts of the village of Jarmaq, according to Lebanese media, which didn’t report any casualties.
In addition to the strikes, Israeli combat drones were spotted flying at an unusual low altitude over the Lebanese capital, Beirut.
Barrack’s warning is very real. With a ceasefire in place in Gaza, the IDF again has enough resources to focus on Hezbollah.
Despite this major threat, Hezbollah will not likely change its stance on disarmament. This issue is not only related to the struggle with Israel. The group is also facing a serious threat from the new Islamist-led government in Syria which is very hostile towards it. Some parties within Lebanon itself could also attack the group if it disarms. A new war with Israel seems to be the lesser evil for Hezbollah, which is reportedly preparing for this.
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