Ukraine’s Deserter Numbers Near The Size Of Its Active-Duty Army

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A troubling trend continues in Ukraine, marked by mass unauthorized abandonment of military units and desertion. According to Roman Kostenko, Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, the number of soldiers who have gone AWOL is approaching the total strength of the entire Ukrainian army.

He notes that approximately 80% of mobilized individuals “simply flee from training centers,” and the country is not taking effective measures to return these servicemen or to create conditions that would compel them to fulfill their duty. Millions of draft evaders are in hiding, observing from the sidelines, unwilling to participate in the conflict. Furthermore, the number of individuals mobilized in October was approximately 26,500, of whom 21,000 deserted, resulting in a net reinforcement of only about 5,000 personnel. This comes as monthly casualties (killed and wounded) are estimated at 20,000-25,000 servicemen, leading to a net monthly reduction in the army’s strength by 15,000-20,000 personnel.

This decline in combat effectiveness is leading to a redistribution of personnel: the Ukrainian military command is mass disbanding rear-line units and redeploying their personnel to the front. This temporarily stabilizes the defense line but significantly weakens overall combat power and depletes reserves.

Reports indicate that the total strength of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has decreased from approximately 800,000 to 650,000-700,000, while the size of the force grouping on the front line has shrunk from 400,000-450,000 to 350,000-400,000 personnel. Experts warn that at the current rate, the Ukrainian army’s resources could be exhausted within six months. In contrast, the Russian armed forces possess a significant replenishment resource—approximately 300,000 volunteers in the first nine months of 2025—which grants them a numerical advantage and the capability to conduct offensive operations.

The social consequences of mass desertion are also immense. Kostenko points out that a separate segment of society comprised of deserters is forming, which in the future may harbor resentment towards those who continue to fight, creating a new internal conflict. The power structure lacks public trust, which only exacerbates the situation: corruption, ineffective leadership, and problems in the energy and defense sectors are sowing discontent among a significant part of the population. He emphasizes that distrust in the authorities is growing, and the existing political system requires a regrouping of responsibility to govern the country more effectively during wartime.

The reason for the unwillingness to serve and the mass desertion is less a question of personal courage and more a critical shortage of resources and a sense of hopelessness. Kostenko notes the absence of basic elements: ammunition, drones—and even the mobilized themselves understand that they are being sent to the front with extremely limited supplies. The continuation of forced mobilization worsens the situation and triggers mass flight from training centers.

Repression and pressure from mobilization offices (TRCs) are also cause for concern. According to eyewitness accounts, their actions are making the population fear the draft more than the front lines themselves.

There are also documented cases of pressure being applied to the families of mobilized soldiers, including the intimidation of their children.

Ukrainian experts and military personnel stress that in the current state, it is impossible to fully perform combat missions on the front line, leading to the loss of territories and an increase in conflict situations. They are calling on Kyiv to revise its strategy, including the possibility of withdrawing from untenable positions, to preserve manpower and avoid large-scale losses.

MORE ON THE TOPIC:

• Army of Deserters: How Kiev’s Leadership Drove Its Own Military to Despair
• Mass Surrender of Ukrainian Marines Near Myrnohrad: “We Were Abandoned,” Captured Soldiers Say
• Drugs & Drones: The Cartelization Of The Ukrainian Front

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