Illustrative Image
Written by Dr. Binoy Kampmark
It seems to be a case of little provision for so much supposed effect. The debates, the squabbles, the to-and-fro about supplying Ukraine with tanks from Western arsenals has served to confirm one thing: this is an ever-broadening war between the West against Russia with Ukraine an experimental proxy convinced it will win through. Efforts to limit the deepening conflict continue to be seen as the quailing sentiments of appeasers, the wobbly types who find democracy a less than lovable thing.
So far, promises have been made to ship the US M1A2 Abrams, Germany’s Leopard 2 and the UK’s Challenger. Others have alluded to doing the same thing – including France regarding its Leclerc tanks – but tardiness fills the ranks, and logistics will make the provision of such weapons a long affair. Re-export licenses will have to be issued, notably regarding the Leopard 2; training Ukrainian tank crews will also need to be undertaken.
All in all, the picture is not as rosy as those in Kyiv think, despite the confident assessment from Ukraine’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Andriy Melnyk that his country’s defence forces would have access to “at least a hundred tanks” within three months.
The US tanks are, for the most part, still grounded in their country of origin, with their deployment potentially delayed for months, if not years. Pentagon deputy spokesperson Sabrina Singh was frank in admitting that, “We just don’t have these tanks available in excess in our US stocks, which is why it is going to take months to transfer these M1A2 Abrams to Ukraine.” Singh, it should also be remembered, expressed the department’s view earlier this month that the tank was hardly suitable for Ukrainian needs, given how its jet turbine engine hungers for JP-8 jet fuel, unlike the diesel engine used by the Leopard and Challenger counterparts.
The engine is also rather tricky to maintain for crews, leaving it susceptible to blowing in the event of error. No less an authority than the Pentagon press secretary US Air Force brigadier general Pat Ryder, admitted that the M-1 “is a complex weapons system that is challenging to maintain, as we’ve talked about. That was true yesterday; it’s true today; it will be true in the future.”
There is also a backlog of orders for the tank. The Lima facility in Ohio, operated by General Dynamics, is the only facility that assembles the Abrams. It can produce a mere 12 tanks per month and must fulfill orders to supply 250 A2 tanks for Poland starting in 2025 to replace the same number of Soviet-era T-72 tanks Warsaw supplied to Kyiv last year. Taiwan also put in an order for 108 M1A2 tanks in 2019. Even getting to work on the 31 units promised by the Biden administration for Ukraine looks to be ambitious.
The wrangling over supplying Ukraine with tanks has been an at times acrimonious affair. This is hardly surprising. European states have their own specific readings, however dark or cautious, about how to approach the supply issue. The magic number being sought by Kyiv is 300. After initial resistance, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz gave in to his peers, both in his coalition outside, to send a company of Leopard 2 tanks and permit countries with the same tanks in their inventories to supply them to Kyiv. A fortnight of aggressive chatter at a number of venues, including Ramstein Air Base, pressing the flesh and breathing down various necks, saw a change of heart and, it has to be said, weak will on the part of the Chancellor.
It is impossible to see how the provision of such weapons, against a larger enemy with no evident sign of capitulation and determined to maintain the fight in the field, however slapdash and ailing, will be a “gamechanger”. That word ought to be scrapped from any credible analysis, but we see it used repeatedly in the tabloid certitude of final victory.
There is Ed Arnold of the Royal United Services Institute, who is confident that this tank transfer “will make a real difference.” But even Arnold attaches a few caveats, noting that much will depend on how Ukraine uses them. “Do they put them straight into the fight as soon as they’re available? Or do they integrate them into larger formations, train and rehearse those larger formations, and spend a bit more time integrating them into the way that they fight to then potentially use in the summer?”
Whatever the answer to such questions, this is a war that will yield no victors and will, in guaranteed fashion, make a mockery of victory. And the only cruel reality here, short of needless oblivion through imbecilic error of judgment, is to get the warring parties to the table to reach an agreement that is bound to cause despair as much as relief. It might, as unpalatable as it seems, require Ukraine to surrender a portion of devastated earth in the east. The unthinkable will have to be entertained.
Dr. Binoy Kampmark was a Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge. He currently lectures at RMIT University. Email: bkampmark@gmail.com
I dont understand SF, what are they writing theis . Jpurno off SFthey bought. I know, thouse is lies. Today her in thee mintal hom. I biseksual, bat not too old. Rusticas ar strong. Light many.
You should really consider switching your comments to your own language. Your English is incomprehensible. …or maybe you should just stop getting stoopid drunk before sitting down at your computer.
What language is that?
Jens Holm speaks an early form of Gibberish that is prevalent in many NATO lunatic asylums.
Dick Latin
“I dont understand SF…”
The feeling is mutual, apparently – Jens Holm is nothing if not a barrel of laughs.
He’s Hans Christian Andersen Mk 2.
more like Andersdotter.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the unique losses from February 24, 2022 to January 31, 2023 are:
381 aircraft
206 helicopters
2,987 UAVs
402 air defense systems
8,229 special military motor vehicles
3,970 artillery, guns and mortars
997MLRS
7,691 tanks and armored fighting vehicles
When I look at this list, whether or not the numbers are perfectly correct then I don’t get the impression that those 200 tanks are going to make a shitload of difference on the Battlefield. The North-Atlantic-Terrorist-Organisation, their UkroNazis en their NATO-Mercenaries are done…Nazis are excellent fertilizer…the AngloZioNazis are finished, time for the Samson-Option perhaps? Nope because they are Chickenshit cowards….
you do realise that those numbers are at least x3 times inflated? but even so ….
What’s your source for that particular ratio? Ukrainian, American or other NATO?
basic ratio for fake numbers during conflicts. each side exagerates enemy loses and downside its own. its for morale purposes…
Sorry, what’s your source for that basic ratio?
Both sides are not accurate. A vehicle might appear to be destroyed and will be reported as such, but the enemy might find that the vehicle is not extremely damaged and repair it.
Science!!!!
I think in fairness the young Ukrainian guys dying are not chickenshit cowards. The guys sending them to die are the chicken hawks. 200 tanks wont make a difference I agree. The tipping point for Ukraine has now been reached. The initiative is completely with the Russians. It’s the conundrum that faced the Germans in ’43. The war was lost then and the Nazi leadership didn’t have the balls to call it quits. Presumably because of the anticipated repercussions for their personal misdeeds. Consequently, millions needlessly died between ’43 and ’45. Lets not repeat history and let sense prevail with a negotiated settlement.
I think it would be cool to watch conventional warfare only within Ukraine between Russia and brit-am.
As long as it stays within Ukraine thats fair.
But whoever tries to fight outside should be stopped.
And same with kikerael vs iran only.
May the Best Man Win, FIGHT!
2 v 1. Typical yank, you gutless wonders can never stand alone
Will Russia wait for ukranazis spring offensive? in the Battle of Krusk the Soviets intentionally poured more men and equipment into the krusk salient with the purpose of luring Nazi forces which it did and the end result was they Nazis smashed against Soviet defenses and well the rest is history.
americans are not the smartest, not the bravest, numerous wars have proven this. But if there is one thing they are really good at, it’s logistics, the ability to bring HUGE amounts of tech and provisions in the shortest time in a place and the ability to mentain that supply chain. To think it will take months or years to move tanks to ukraine is just wishful thinking. they can do it fast, probably the ukies just wont be able to operate them.
The tanks that the Ukrainians are to receive are not even built yet. They’re not permitted to have top-of-the-line systems. The Americans couldn’t even keep body armour on their soldiers in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Lavrov probably told them he wouldn’t allow it.
According to the Russian Ministry of Defense, the losses of the UkroNazis from February 24, 2022 to January 31, 2023 are:
381 aircraft
206 helicopters
2,987 UAVs
402 air defense systems
8,229 special military motor vehicles
3,970 artillery, guns and mortars
997MLRS
7,691 tanks and armored fighting vehicles
When I take a look at this list, whether or not the numbers are perfectly correct, then I don’t get the impression that those 200 tanks are going to make a hell of a difference. The AngloZioNazis, Uncle Shmuel & their North-Atlantic-Terrorist-Organisation are done and they very wel know it.
They have destroyed more equipments than the Ukrainians had. Russian and British MODs are king of lies.
I thought the US had hundreds of spare Abrams mothballed in the desert somewhere? Even so they would need recomissioning, and by the time any Ukranians are trained on them the war may well be over.
I understand that the US mothballs were sourced from Canada and the quality was not good.
The tanks are now full of holes :)
Money laundering con job
What everyone is missing is that 25% experienced Ukrainian tank crews are lost using the NATO tanks. The NATO tanks are 4 man crew the current Ukraine are 3 crew. Put it like this. Ukraine will need 1200 trained personnel to man 300 NATO tanks but 1200 trained personnel can man 400 current Ukraine tanks.
The one missing is the loader. That’s why they get old construction workers from the street, to use them for such idiotic maneuvres. Imagine when they will drop the projectile in the tank, confuse the types ordered to be loaded etc.
A tank functional specification must have included ease to repair everywhere, ease to use every-time and at least 10 days between services. Unfortunately , some preferred cashing money. Result is some single-use vehicle , also know as kleenex tanks.
There seems to be an inexorable momentum to Russias progress. It kind of reminds me of the Hemmingway quote. In time to come people will ask, how did the deeat of Ukraine happen, and the answrr will be, gradually, then suddenly.
Tanks for nothing.
FOR SALE : Brand NEW WESTERN TANKS of all makes, also trained NATO troops of 4 included for 50% of the Russian offer !! Supply is limited so 1st come 1st serve !! Call Cocainsky at : 1-800- TANK-ME$$
The average tank needs daily, weakly, monthly, quarterly, and yearly service. Even with that the average tank breaks down every 100-700 miles. The implication is that with out a mechanical expertise and logistical chain to get the broken tank fixed. Now complicate the logistics issue by having multiple countries using multiple technologies supplying tanks from different eras, with each make and model requiring it’s own logistical chain and mechanical expertise.
And I have yet to talk about integration of that major end item into the current operations …
I swear an eternal oath against tyranny.
The Bradleys and Leopards could come in larger numbers than advertised with the Abrams being more of a sysop and could prove more suitable to a spring offensive with the right planning.
Umm The US military has thousands of M1 tanks of varying models. They just don’t want to send them.
I’ll help you out, here. “JP-8″is diesel
the air force doesn’t know dick about the abrams tank
12 tanks per month…right
It will be a NATO invasion of Ukraine, driving the tanks.
This war would either bring Russian total victory or nuclear war to engulf us all (and maybe Russia will still be victorios due to the small density of population).
🇷🇺
Alternatively Russians will be pushed back. Did happened in 1920 when Poles chased Stalin back to Moscow. Russians back then invaded young Poland hoping for quick victory – o boy they were wrong! Famous Stalin Army was destroyed – Stalin was at the end begging Poles not to burn Moscow…
If russians manage to reduce the ukroshit bandera nazi total tanks under 200 and keep that for max 2 months, Ze Cocalansky joker fuhrer will flee and Ukropizdan will ask for ceasefire. 100% guaranteed. Now they have around 400. That is ONE from the only 3 military requirements russians need to do to win this war. And as concerned about german new wundershit ‘Tiger’ tanks crews, I bet these will have polish crew and will be seen on the frontline much earlier than many here are thinking. But only massed in low numbers in critical spots on the front. Hope russians will know in advance the disposition and make a real good welcome for them with Alligators and Krasnopol. The first destroyed ones will kill all the west warmongering politic morale for further help, will obliterate all ukroshit ‘regular’ nazi army willingness to fight on and will aggravate the internal Ukropizdan reich social support for the war. The only thing russians have to do is to gather some good intel and prepare a strong kick in the fascist ass.
russia must destroy the most, but try to capture a few of each type in full function, for the next victory parade in moscow. because driving a few leo2, m1 and challangers on the red square parade would be the maximum blow to all western warmongers and ukro arms supporters.
I hope the DPR & LPR enjoy their new trophies once donated by NATO to them via proxy ukrainian expert absquatulation. It’s how they gained so much strength without major donors from 2014 to date. when a country like Ukraine, donates Three armies worth of military gear to their opponent in 8 years, it’s just nice another country is willing to fill that massive hole with their own starving taxpayers dollars, and bankrupt their own population to be dictated to by genuine nazis whose begging knows no bounds. personnaly, glorified aluminum APC’s with pop guns and tinker toy Abrams tanks will look nice in next years victory Parades thru Luhansk and Donetsk. as will the POW’s.