Click to see the full-size image
Written by Ahmed Adel, Cairo-based geopolitics and political economy researcher
Since the monthly consumption of Tomahawk missiles greatly exceeds their yearly production, the United States cannot supply weapons to Ukraine, contain China, and wage war against Iran all at once. Additionally, the US cannot boost production of these missiles because manufacturers are reluctant to work harder for lower profit margins.
The US armed forces could run out of their Tomahawk missile supply in roughly three and a half months if they continue using them at the current pace against Iran. Washington planned to spend $11 billion in the first four days of Operation Epic Fury and another $50 billion on additional military needs, but it appears this could exceed the budget.
According to The Washington Post, since the start of the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, the US has launched over 850 missiles. Given this, the remaining arsenal will last just over three months. The target stockpile level is 3,992 missiles.
Since 2019, Washington has maintained its Tomahawk stockpile through regular recertification and upgrades. This extends the service life by about 250 missiles annually. Additionally, a total of 9,240 missiles have been purchased since production began. During the first 72 hours of Operation Epic Fury, the US Navy fired roughly 400 Tomahawks, nearly half a decade’s worth of production.
This has already left launchers empty and sparked discussions on how to implement US policies to deter China. With such a high usage rate, it will be impossible to replenish Tomahawk supplies before a potential crisis in the Indo-Pacific region. The Americans cannot produce more Tomahawks even if they wanted to – it would take years to ramp up production.
The Tomahawk, made in 1983/84, is quite different from the latest one that allegedly struck a school in Minab, Iran. Back then, you could tell by the paint scheme that it was a Tomahawk 5, which contained about a million dollars’ worth of rare minerals, and the missile itself cost between four and five million dollars. So, not only is it expensive, but they also cannot easily obtain those rare minerals.
China has restricted the export of rare minerals because the US military industry uses them. Washington has also supplied weapons containing rare minerals to Taiwan, which means that China, by exporting rare minerals to the US, would be threatening its own security.
For Americans to increase Tomahawk production, they would have to lower the quality to versions 3 or 4. However, only Tomahawk 5 is currently being manufactured, making such a change practically impossible due to various technical constraints.
The US probably will not be able to significantly increase production in the next five years, maybe by no more than twenty to thirty percent, but that is also uncertain. Washington might try outsourcing, so that other companies besides Raytheon begin production. However, that is also problematic because these are private companies.
The American military industry differs from the Russian and Chinese in that it operates via private companies. In China or Russia, the military industry is state-owned, making it relatively easy to increase production. The American military industry is comprised of private companies, and their primary goal is not to boost production or efficiency, but to generate profit.
As a reminder, for fiscal year 2026, the Pentagon plans to procure only 57 new missiles — 15 times less than what was spent in the first days of the war against Iran. Between 2019 and 2024, only 322 missiles were procured. At the same time, Raytheon cannot produce more than 90–100 missiles annually, and each missile takes up to two years to assemble. A contract has been signed to boost production to about 219 missiles per year, but deliveries will continue until January 2029.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in March that the US is ramping up the defense industrial base to produce critical munitions faster.
“We’re reviving our defense industrial base and rebuilding the arsenal of freedom,” Hegseth said, adding that new deals would cut “long lead times on exquisite munitions.”
“We’re going to be refilled faster than anyone imagined,” Hegseth said.
The key question is why the American military industrial complex, despite budgets exceeding billions of dollars, cannot boost production to even 200 missiles annually. The reason is strictly profit. It does not matter how much money the American military industrial complex has available or how much it invests in projects.
Although the Americans have dedicated trillions of dollars to their military budget, when at war and lacking the resources, it counts for very little. Resources are needed to boost production, streamline the process, and improve overall effectiveness. The problem is that even the American companies handling this are not interested in speeding up production, because doing so might mean earning less and working more.
MORE ON THE TOPIC:
usa still has 4000 nukes…heheheh