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On December 17th, the Institute for the Study of War published an analysis titled “Russia’s Pressure Points on Ukraine.” The article presents a hardline anti-Russiann look of the situation in Ukraine.
The ISW present itself as a US-based non-partisan think tank providing research and analysis regarding issues of defense and foreign affairs. Critics described at as a “hawkish Washington” group favoring an “aggressive foreign policy.”
Its article allows to get a general view how mainstream media outlets and think tanks attempt to rationalize their politized anti-Russian stance in the issue.
The key takeaway from the report is the following:
“Russia is expanding the variety of means it uses to threaten Ukraine along multiple borders – from the Sea of Azov and Donbas to Western Ukraine. The Kremlin retains the capability and intent to escalate these threats as necessary in order to challenge the Government of Ukraine. The Kremlin is attempting to inflame religious and social tensions to polarize Ukraine ahead of Ukraine’s 2019 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections. Russia will continue to use all means necessary to advance its long-term objective to reassert its sphere of influence over Ukraine.”
Thus, it completely disregards any scenario that the incident near the Kerch Strait was a Ukrainian provocation, and presents a picture in which Russia is the sole side that must be blamed.
The arguments in the analysis are all separated into paragraphs, every single paragraph begins with “Russia” and something that it is allegedly doing, in a way presenting a very skewered picture of what is actually going on.
Separate into points, it claims the following:
- Russia continues to bolster its military capabilities on the occupied Crimean Peninsula, while Ukraine, the US and NATO with increased activity along the Russian border, clearly are not doing anything to warrant that bolstering;
- Russia continues to threaten military escalation and maintain a de-facto blockade of Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov – Russia continues to maintain that it does not wish for war with Ukraine or the West and will not initiate such a thing. It has also refuted any claims that any Ukrainian ports in the Sea of Azov are blocked;
- Russia is fueling tensions over the Ukrainian Orthodox Church’s recent acquisition of autonomy from Moscow to polarize Ukraine – according to Ukrainian officials, the Russian security service FSB is organizing protests in Kyiv, Odessa, Kharkiv, Zaporizhia, Kherson, and Mykolayiv against the autonomy. However, Russia apparently failed;
- Russia is preparing its separatist proxies for a potential escalation in Donbas in Eastern Ukraine – the LPR and DPR have repeatedly warned of foreign experts assisting the Ukrainian forces in preparation of an escalation. Russian officials have also repeatedly warned that the martial law may be a preparation for precisely such an escalation;
- Russia is subverting the upcoming elections in Ukraine – Ukraine’s security service the SBU accused Russia of “troll factories” to interfere in the March 31, 2019 presidential elections. No evidence was provided, furthermore, if there is another escalation that would create the conditions for Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko to delay the possible escalations indefinitely. Which would solve this problem – if there’s no elections, there’s no way Russia can meddle in them;
- Russia is intensifying its information campaign in Southern Ukraine in order to sow distrust and weaken the legitimacy of the Government of Ukraine – Russian media claimed that Ukraine plans on attacking the Kherson region near Crimea on December 24th or 25th, it is yet to be seen if that comes to fruition;
- Russia is targeting the borders of Western Ukraine – allegedly Russia is using “subversive” tools to inflame ethnic tensions and separatist sentiments in Zakharpatiya in order to create tensions between Ukraine and its neighbors Hungary and Poland. That is because, the Ukrainian neo-Nazi movements aren’t doing a good job by themselves.
The following is an older map, which shows Anti Access/Area Denial capabiltiies of Russian in the region:
Click to see the full-size image
Which ‘think tank’ did Cookie Monster Nuland move to?
The Institute for the study of War is what you get when you develop a white helmets type of nonpartisan think tanks.
Those Ukrainian Sailors captured in those three mud puddle Navy ships should be real happy that Russian isn’t trying to provoke War and tensions with Ukraine. They should be real happy they are still alive. They were meant to be sacrificed by Ukraine.
US think tank? Is that what Americans call septic tanks?
US wank tank is a far more apt description.
…and, “Russia forces US think tanks to stuff feet in mouth”. Truly, Russia’s power is awesome. Better give up right away.
They can only insert their foot into their mouth if they first remove the establishment c_ck that is occupying the space.
right
“……..“Russia is expanding the variety of means it uses to threaten Ukraine along multiple borders – from the Sea of Azov and Donbas to Western Ukraine. The Kremlin retains the capability and intent to escalate these threats as necessary in order to challenge the Government of Ukraine. The Kremlin is attempting to inflame religious and social tensions to polarize Ukraine ahead of Ukraine’s 2019 Presidential and Parliamentary Elections. Russia will continue to use all means necessary to advance its long-term objective to reassert its sphere of influence over Ukraine.”……..”
One of the most accurate discriptions I have seen on the conflict. It is all about real politik and a sphere of influence. The comments by Sergay Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, are instructive (“Lavrov: Russia inviting Trump officials to Syria talks” @AJENews http://aje.io/5zk9, al Jazeera):
“……..Lavrov said he had been encouraged by Rex Tillerson, the incoming secretary of state, whom he cited as saying Russia’s behaviour was not unpredictable. “[That] means that we are dealing with people who won’t get involved in moralising, but will try to understand their partner’s interests,” Lavrov said. Tillerson had extensive dealings with Russia when he was the head of Exxon Mobil oil company……”
In other words, it is time to return to realpolitik. Russia has geopolitical interests in Ukraine (and Syria) which needs to be “respected” by the US and the EU (and therefore, NATO). Greenwald summed it up very well with his quote of As’ad AbuKhalil (“RT Host Abby Martin Condemns Russian Incursion Into Crimea – On RT” http://interc.pt/1fElHd4 by @ggreenwald, 4-2-2014):
“…….This is what imperialism is all about: to give yourself the right to intervene in faraway places and to project power in every corner of the globe, including the arctic, and to disregard world public opinion. Imperialism is to have the temerity to lecture and hector Russia about the evils of intervention in the affairs of its neighbor, Ukraine, where the U.S. and EU are blatantly conspiring against Russian interests there………”
What Putin understands perfectly well is that Russia has dominated Ukraine since the Bolshevik Revolution – and Ukraine must accept total subservience to Russian interests at the cost of its sovereignty. That is exactly why NATO advanced at lightning speed to Russia’s doorstep.
Russia cannot just walk around snatching land right under Pentagons nose after we spent $5 billion bucks to get it. This cant go unpunished. Everybody can understand that.
judging by this report – Americans will continue to destroy Ukraine and provoke conflicts there
ISW in its pathetic report forgot to mention all the aggressive actions the western powers have taken such as staging to coup in the first place, US running biological warfare labs in Ukraine, the general lawlessness in Ukraine after the coup etc. I hope mr Putin is able to save Ukraine.
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