Illustrative image
Written by Prof Michel Chossudovsky; Originally appeared at Global Research
In 2003, the war on Iran project was already Déjà Vu. It had been on the drawing board of the Pentagon since the mid-nineties.
Since the launching of the Theater Iran Near Term (TIRANNT) war games scenario in May 2003 (leaked classified document), an escalation scenario involving military action directed against Iran and Syria had been envisaged, of which Syria was the first stage in 2011.
The initial invasion of Iraq under “Operation Iraqi Freedom” was launched on March 20, 2003, April 9 marks the Fall of Baghdad; officially the invasion was completed on May 1st, 2003.
In May 2003, immediately following the invasion and occupation of Iraq, the TIRANNT (Theater Iran Near Term) war games scenario were carried out as revealed by William Arkin, a former US intelligence analyst:
“In early 2003, even as U.S. forces were on the brink of war with Iraq, the Army had already begun conducting an analysis for a full-scale war with Iran. The analysis, called TIRANNT, for “theater Iran near term,” was coupled with a mock scenario for a Marine Corps invasion and a simulation of the Iranian missile force. U.S. and British planners conducted a Caspian Sea war game around the same time. And Bush directed the U.S. Strategic Command to draw up a global strike war plan for an attack against Iranian weapons of mass destruction. All of this will ultimately feed into a new war plan for “major combat operations” against Iran that military sources confirm now exists in draft form. [This contingency plan entitled CONPLAN 8022 would be activated in the eventuality of a Second 9/11, on the presumption that Iran would be behind it] (William Arkin, Washington Post, 16 April 2006)
Screenshot of WPo article, opinion section
“Theater Near Term”, a scenario of waging a war against Iran following the defeat of Iraq was the unspoken concept. Under the auspices of US Central Command, TIRANNT focussed on both “Near Term” (i.e. following the Iraq war) as well “Out-Year” (signifying the subsequent year) scenarios for war with Iran ” …including all aspects of a major combat operation, from mobilization and deployment of forces through postwar stability operations after regime change.” (Ibid)
The core TIRANNT effort began in May 2003, when modelers and intelligence specialists pulled together the data needed for theater-level (meaning large-scale) scenario analysis for Iran. TIRANNT has since been updated using post-Iraq war information on the performance of U.S. forces. Meanwhile, Air Force planners have modeled attacks against existing Iranian air defenses and targets, while Navy planners have evaluated coastal defenses and drawn up scenarios for keeping control of the Strait of Hormuz at the base of the Persian Gulf.
A follow-on TIRANNT Campaign Analysis, which began in October 2003, calculated the results of different scenarios for action against Iran to provide options for analyzing courses of action in an updated Iran war plan. (Ibid)
Needless to say, the “Near Term” plans formulated in 2003 had been postponed.
USCENTCOM’s “Dual Containment”. First Iraq, then Iran
The 2003 decision to target Iran under TIRANNT as well as all subsequent endeavors and “secret plans” were part of the broader Middle East military roadmap. Already during the Clinton administration, US Central Command (USCENTCOM) had formulated in 1995 under the doctrine of “Dual Containment” “in war theater plans” to invade first Iraq and then Iran:
“The broad national security interests and objectives expressed in the President’s National Security Strategy (NSS) and the Chairman’s National Military Strategy (NMS) form the foundation of the United States Central Command’s theater strategy. The NSS directs implementation of a strategy of dual containment of the rogue states of Iraq and Iran as long as those states pose a threat to U.S. interests, to other states in the region, and to their own citizens. Dual containment is designed to maintain the balance of power in the region without depending on either Iraq or Iran. USCENTCOM’s theater strategy is interest-based and threat-focused. The purpose of U.S. engagement, as espoused in the NSS, is to protect the United States’ vital interest in the region – uninterrupted, secure U.S./Allied access to Gulf oil.”
USCENTCOM, http://www.milnet.com/milnet/pentagon/centcom/chap1/stratgic.htm#USPolicy
emphasis added, the original document of USCENTCOM is no longer available)
The Role of Israel. “Doing the Bombing For Us”
The TIRANNT (2003) scenario was followed by a series of military plans pertaining to Iran. Numerous post 9/11 official statements and US military documents had pointed to an expanded Middle East war, involving the active participation of Israel.
Broadly, what characterizes U.S. foreign policy is to encourage America’s allies “to do the dirty work on our behalf”.
At the outset of Bush’s Second Term, Vice President Dick Cheney dropped a bombshell, hinting, in no uncertain terms, that Iran was “right at the top of the list” of the rogue enemies of America, and that Israel would, so to speak, “be doing the bombing for us”, without US military involvement and without us putting pressure on them “to do it”.
In contrast, under the Trump administration, according to Professor James Petras, Israel and the Zionist Lobby are playing an active role, pressuring President Trump to take the first step:
“Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Presidents of the 52 Major Jewish American Organizations are leading President Trump, like a puppy on a leash, into a major war with Iran. The hysterical ’52 Presidents’ and ‘Bibi’ Netanyahu are busy manufacturing Holocaust-level predictions that a non-nuclear Iran is preparing to ‘vaporize’ Israel, , The buffoonish US President Trump has swallowed this fantasy wholesale and is pushing our nation toward war for the sake of Israel and its US-based supporters and agents. (James Petras, Global Research, October 27, 2017)
Who are the Main Actors?
Political rhetoric is often misleading. Israel is America’s ally. Military operations are closely coordinated. Tel Aviv is however subordinate to Washington. In major military operations, Israel does not act without the Pentagon’s approval.
Barely acknowledged by the media, the US and Israel have an integrated air defense system, which was set up in early 2009, shortly after the Israel invasion of Gaza under “Operation Cast Led”.
The X-band radar air defense system set up by the US in Israel in 2009 would “integrate Israel’s missile defenses with the U.S. global missile detection network, which includes satellites, Aegis ships on the Mediterranean, Persian Gulf and Red Sea, and land-based Patriot radars and interceptors.” (Sen. Joseph Azzolina, Protecting Israel from Iran’s missiles, Bayshore News, December 26, 2008). )
What this means is that Washington calls the shots. Confirmed by the Pentagon, the US military controls Israel’s Air Defense:
”This is and will remain a U.S. radar system,’ Pentagon spokesman Geoff Morrell said. ‘So this is not something we are giving or selling to the Israelis and it is something that will likely require U.S. personnel on-site to operate.’” (Quoted in Israel National News, January 9, 2009, emphasis added).
At the outset of Obama’s Second Term, the US and Israel initiated discussions pertaining to a “US personnel on site” presence in Israel, namely the establishment of a “permanent” and “official” military base inside Israel. And on September 17, 2017, a US Air Defense base located in the Negev desert was inaugurated. According to the Israeli IDF spokesperson, the objective is to send a “message to the region, ” including Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Palestine.
Israel would not be able to act unilaterally against Iran, without a green light from the Pentagon which controls key components of Israel’s air defense system.
In practice, a war on Iran, were it to occur would be a joint US-Israeli endeavor, coordinated by US Strategic Command (STRATCOM) with America’s allies playing a key (subordinate) role.
The Evolving Structure of Military Alliances
Since the formulation of USCENTCOM’s “in war theater” plans in the mid-nineties, and more specifically since the onslaught of the war on Syria in 2011, the geopolitics of the broader Middle East Central Asian region has evolved dramatically with Russia and China taking on a major role.
In this regard, the shift in the structure of military alliances has served to weaken US influence. Iran is now supported by a powerful China-Russia block. In turn, Pakistan and India have joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), which has contributed to undermining US-Pakistani relations.
In turn, Iran’s bilateral relations with China including strategic oil, gas and pipeline deals (as well as military cooperation) have developed since President Xi Jinping took office in 2012.
Moreover, while Tehran has reached a “pact of convenience” with Ankara, the unity of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States is now in jeopardy, with Qatar, Oman and Kuwait building an alliance with Iran, to the detriment of Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
Since the war on Syria, Iran has not only established a strong bilateral relationship with Syria, it has also reinforced its ties with Lebanon and Yemen.
In other words, US hegemony is threatened in the broader Middle East Central Asian region. The structure of alliances and “cross-cutting coalitions” in 2018 does not favor a US-led military operation against Iran.
- The Atlantic Alliance is in crisis and so is the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).
- The US and Turkey are clashing in Northern Syria, where Turkey is fighting US sponsored Kurdish rebels.
- Turkey, which constitutes NATO’s heavyweight (in terms of conventional forces) has acquired Russia’s S400 air defense system. Does this signify that Turkey (as a member state of the Atlantic Alliance) no longer fully shares the US-NATO-Israel defense system?
Another consideration is Turkey’s rapprochement with both Russia and Iran.
presidents Putin and Erdogan (right)
Demise of the “Triple Alliance”: US, Israel, Turkey
How does Turkey’s “pact of convenience” with Iran affect the Israel-Turkey Security and Secrecy Agreement (SSA) launched by the Tansu Çiller government in 1994?
The SSA agreement was a carefully designed instrument of US foreign policy (sponsored by the Clinton administration) which set the stage for a firm and close Israel-Turkey relationship in military and intelligence cooperation, joint military exercises, weapons production and training.
The SSA largely served US strategic interests in the Middle East. The intent of the SSA Israel-Turkey bilateral military-intelligence agreement was to create a triangular relationship between the US, Israel and Turkey. This de facto (rather than de jure) “triple alliance”, under the helm of the Pentagon, was intended to integrate and coordinate military command decisions (as well as intelligence) between the three countries pertaining to the broader Middle East.
From a strategic standpoint, the Pentagon was intent upon “using” both Israel and Turkey in Middle East military operations (i.e to act on our behalf).
The “Triple alliance” was based on close (bilateral) military ties respectively between Israel and Turkey with the US, coupled with a strong bilateral military relationship between Tel Aviv and Ankara.
In turn, Israel signed a far-reaching military cooperation protocol with NATO in March 2005 in Jerusalem. Under this agreement, Israel had become a de facto member of NATO. The 2005 Israel-NATO bilateral military cooperation agreement was viewed by the Israeli military as a means to “enhance Israel’s deterrence capability” against Iran, which has recently entered into an alliance of convenience with Turkey, a NATO member state. Sounds contradictory?
It is also worth noting Israel’s longstanding membership in NATO’s Mediterranean Dialogue together with six other non-NATO member states: Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Mauritania, Morocco and Tunisia. Recently, these six countries have taken a stance against Israel in the wake of Trump’s decision to move the US embassy to Jerusalem.
It was no coincidence that the Mediterranean Dialogue (MD) was launched in the same year as the Israel-Turkey SSA agreement (1994).
- Is the Israel-Turkey SSA agreement currently in jeopardy?
- Following Trump’s Jerusalem Statement, the Mediterranean Dialogue is also in crisis, to the detriment of Washington.
- How can joint military and intelligence operations directed against Iran be carried out when Turkey (a NATO member state and an ally of Israel) is “in bed with the enemy”?
- Another consideration is the de facto demise of GUUAM (Georgia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Azerbaijan and Moldova), a loose US-NATO sponsored military alliance of five former Soviet republics created in 1999, slated to be used against Russia and Iran.
For the above reasons, the Pentagon’s TIRANNT “Near Term” scenario of a conventional war against Iran at this juncture is unlikely.
While a conventional war on Iran is currently on hold, the US has indelibly opted for nonconventional warfare including destabilization, economic sanctions, infiltration, cooptation and regime change.
The Pentagon, nonetheless retains its longtime strategic option of inducing its closest allies including Saudi Arabia and Israel to “wage war on its behalf”.
We are nonetheless at a dangerous crossroads in our history. While Pentagon analysts are fully aware that the US cannot win a conventional war against Iran, a first strike tactical nuclear weapons attack is still “on the table”. So are intelligence ops, the recruitment of hired “jihadist” terrorists, the funding of insurgencies, etc. (not to mention the use of a panoply of nonconventional weapons systems including electromagnetic, chemical and biological weapons).
***
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Video (2007)
The war with IRAN is not on hold ! it has been started with the massive protests finance by Israel-USA-NATO. The fool iranies that are following the paid-agitators do not realized that they are just collaborating with Israel-USA-NATO to destroy their own country.
No – actually the original protests were genuine and had F-A to do against the government, but due to the stagnant economy. The much smaller later protest that you may have seen is a Yank backed protest and that is when the violence started.
Also some of the videos + pictures you may see in the MSM are from a film, not even from the protests.
The people of Iran, so far anyway, have it covered, as does the government. To me and my Iranian mates; it is another Yanker plan that has backfired. Fingers crossed.
Iranians open your eyes dont fall in Saudi and USA trap.There are paid intruders who are hijacking your national complaints and mutual differences to create another Libya and Ukraine,Afghanistan,Iraq,Syria.
Iran is awake, the number of pro-government demonstrators was more than 100 times the number of rioters. This is the best the CIA could do after decades of infiltration and subversion.
Thank you.
https://www.crossed-flag-pins.com/animated-flag-gif/gifs/Yemen_240-animated-flag-gifs.gif
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/a/af/Abdulmalik_Alhouthi_by_Mbazri.jpg/220px-Abdulmalik_Alhouthi_by_Mbazri.jpg
Yeah, blurry, and I dont know why we read this, because I have read this for decades, the whole nine yards of explanations, and everybody points everywhere, expect to the historical facts, the UssA never gives up, it may loose some fights/wars, it may even have presidential set backs, but never have they altered their goal, Full Spectrum Dominance, never, and to then think this hideous rotten Twitter Twat is going to change this makes me wounder kn how blind if it possible to be.
This, reeks of Psy-ops, I dont question the writers maybe honest assessments and vision, but I know that this isnt going to do anything, because the problem is the UssA. And even now, when the Iran war theater is kicked into motion, people drool something about the Trump as someone whom is an “brilliant” man, what I see is nothing but an bitch, period. Sorry to be this, eh….. negative, when everything, I read, is exactly like the many times before, nothing new, and thats it, I will just watch the theater widen, because, the truth is, we are f….
I sit here and await an nasty FF, the last one, just mark my words, when that happens, war comes, the excuse no matter how insane/lame and lousy it will be, when the scums control everything incl our MSM, I know the war is coming, simply because, as in Norway, there exists no opposition what so ever, and Norway have soldiers in all of the lands where the Wankees are killing people, every single one of them, and our MSM, witch is run by the Khazars, nobody is allowed to write anything, every time I read our MSM I slip 30 years back in time, where nothing, as the Iraqi/Libyan war and lies to make it happen is debated, thru all this years, not an single time, and now, Iran is in the cross hairs. And everything our MSM writes is about regime change, and if millions is killed, well, they are Muslims. So whom the f… cares, Persia,smersia, whateversia, nobody cares.
Its increasing, the military presence is everywhere, and the rhetoric is bonkers, the UN is an rotten bin of enemy’s of man and reason, how can anyone believe the Trump The Bitch is going to do anything about that, the second problem is the Wankees them self, they dont care, if they nuked Iran, nobody would care, and then nuke NK, the Wankees only needs to place that attack on the NK and Iran when an episode of Kardashians is on the tube, then nobody will even notice, where the MSM is controlled, when most of them dont even know where Africa is, what do you expect. Do you really think the Wankees care do you, nothing scares me more than this, insane belief in the moral and justice in the Wankees population and Gov.
peace
Even a nuclear first strike isn’t a guaranteed success, as Iran has its best stuff protected deep inside basalt mountains. Iran would still retain the ability to destroy U.S. bases in the ME and Israel, not to mention the support of Russia, China and now possibly even France. However, there’s doubtless an influential zionist lobby in the U.S. that has significant control- as evident by the fawning butt-kissing of Netanyahu by CONgress with standing ovations (31 last time) each time he visits, an embarrassment for any self-respecting country- and in its desperation to deal with Iran before the U.S. economy implodes, another large false flag attack (perhaps involving a W80 nuke recently flown out of the U.S. under cover of an airport blackout in Texas) could be on the horizon.
nobody will help iran
Not you AGAIN??!
They’ve assigned Solomon to the night shift this week. He’s not in a good mood. Things don’t look so good from where he’s sitting.
Russia knows very well that after IRAN be destroyed, Russia is next. Let us see what Russia is going to do when IRAN be about to be destroyed (i does not matter how or for whom).
Also China as that nation will depend on Iranian energy going into the future.
russia has bigger probems in ukraine. and what does? nothng. russia allowed to remove hos partner – the former president. russians are laizy. they begin to do something 5 min after 12
Your figments of imagination. Russia has practically outsmarted you Americans left and right and are calling the shots everywhere from Ukraine to Syria . Very soon even in Eygpt and Libya.
Really no contest. Tell me where had US bettered Russia so far …. Anywhere
Russia knows US can never defeat Iran militarily on Iran but has to cheat through sanctions as is happening now
You may be right , but as Steve Bell pointed out , “Even a nuclear first strike isn’t a guaranteed success as Iran has its best stuff protected deep inside basalt mountains “… and ” would still retain the ability to destroy US bases … and Israel “. Persians are self reliant , not needing help , the question is does Israel wish to roll the dice . Mutual destruction is not winning .
Ronald, itcould be, that some equipments will be saved. but i doubt, that iran has capability to destroy israel.
Syria ,Hezbollah and Iraq will for sure help Iran actively and openly. Not openly would be Russia and China through other means.
Anyway no country in ME can defeat Iran even if Alone and US does not have the ground forces to do so.
Air power never win wars
syria has no force to help, hezbollah is far from iran, iraq with ameicans on its soil will not help.
usa can defeat. for yanks is enough to bomb the key industry and infrastructure.
Not true, Syria can easily raise lots of volunteers and all forces would be mobilised.
Even iraq pmu and army will help in the event of attack on Iran . Iran helped everyone and it is your dreams that Iran stands alone.
This time even Hamas we I’ll open up a front .
US forces too few to stand a chance and air Force can just do so much. The few forces inside it’s in fact would be fighting for their lives as Iranian missiles and forces would attack them .
No tell me how can US forces be able to fight against such large array of battle hardened fighters vs US newbies?
One of the sillest idea that US can bomb and go back for lunch.
Naive…. Chances are the planes may not have an airfield to land. Iranian soldiers as well as allies would immediately attack all US assets in ME directly or with long range cruise missiles.
Iran thru the decades preparing for US Attacks have overfowed warehouses of missiles and their threats of a thousand missiles per day was no idle boost.
Actually no country can ever defeat Iran on Iran
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d6WD9O8Xc9Y The Face Of Suffering: Famine, Cholera Wreak Havoc In War-Torn Yemen | NBC News
All world leaders should have to support Yemen and end this human rights violations at least for the small kids that have no food, medicines and shelters.
This type of situation is what Trump,Powers,Condoleezza,Mattis and Niki wants Iran and North Korea to be.Supported by Putin and China as puppets from self appointed permanent members of Insecurity council.Never realize that my Putin best friend Trump enemies are my friends Iran and North Korea.
The danger for Israel is greater than ever.
Hezbollah are building military bases near the Golan heights, Assad is stronger than ever, Iran are now in possession of WMD and can wipe Israel off the map any minute. Pakistan is about to give up the dollar, give in to China and is threatening to nuke USA biggest cities. Kim is using blackmail and is threatening to bomb Washington, Tokyo and Seoul. Putin is about to invade Baltikum and Poland in Russia´s lust and greed for more landgrabbing and China is gobbling gold to undermine innocent American dual-citizens who only want to survive. But……we have tactical nukes. We are not completely without defences.
Are you just Copieing that from the US Media? Or why is this sound so Stupid?!
“Putin is about to invade Baltikum and Poland in Russia´s lust and greed for more landgrabbing and China is gobbling gold to undermine innocent American dual-citizens who only want to survive.” < This is pretty Idiotic.
There is not difference between Trump and Putin both are hypocrites and double standard’s feasting on in defensible countries vulnerability.
You need to find the button that Trump has misplaced. Admit it, US is a f….. state and so are its’ population, nothing works so what makes you so sure that your weaponry even works that is controlled by a bunch of faggots?
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b5232e22793e3c38f0b1f8e4ab00e532c3d0ec91b11a88e4586b635649fcbf3f.jpg
San Diego and Los Angeles too.
But completely without brains and commonsense.
tommy, dear, you forgot your sense of humor.
The problem is everyone of your perceived threats were originated or initiated by US/Israel.
Those are just preparing to be able to defend themselves.
Tactical nukes? Well Russia have them too and more ready to use them
The trouble with Western cum Israel is that they are really paranoid and scared of their own shadows.
So they attack first .
North Korea is the latest most dangerous one and as usual these dump people will fail .
If Israelis had actually made peace after Oslo Accords, they would not be facing any of these threats. I don’t think they ever had realistic assessment of the situation. But never too late. Just take off the blinders.
One seriously has to question the validity of the UN and UNSC when this sort of information is made available and not acted upon using the UN Charter to defend International Law. Why even have a UNSC who have shown themselves to be totally inefficient, incapable, unwilling, vassal to US and corrupt to the core.
You are right just because it is US , no one dare to do anything about it.
Might is law
Hope with rise of RUSSIA and China, this will end
Imagine if it had been Iran planning these, all hell will break lose with Nikki pulling her hairs in UN and the usual Trump twits.
One can imagine doing her routine of a screaming banshee.
Starting a war with Iran could and probably would result in $200 a barrel oil and supply disruptions that would damage the world economy. Which is why it probably isn’t going to happen.
Try $300+ after Saudi oil and gas installations are toast. Missiles will sink tankers but it is the insurance companies that stop all traffic – Lloyd’s won’t insure shipping on a war zone.
There are reports that Iran has sufficient missile capability to overwhelm Israeli missile defenses and level Israel with conventional explosives. If that’s even remotely true. Closing the Saudi fields would be unpreventable. And the world would beat a path to Russia’s door step and fill Russian coffers with a lot of petro money.
and paid in Chinese gold backed yuan
Has anyone looked at the topology of Iran. Fighting there would be a hundred times worse than Afghanistan. There is mountain range that runs over 1,500kms inside Iran. https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/49dd8fe4adcc3f50de5726a1aa0fb42633db25c5e91a062115e470ba6beafb1b.jpg
That’s why they gave up attacking Iran after Lebanon 2006 fiasco…. Many times worse
Invasion by ground forces–which would require an army of half a million at very minimum–means a land war against Iran is out of the question. Brookings Institute–a once neo-liberal, now neocon hangout– had policy paper number of years ago that completely ruled out possibility land invasion. Only question is whether US and Israel would resort to nuclear option. But even nuclear attack on Tehran or other major cities would not prevent Iran from launching retaliatory attacks on Israel, Saudi Arabia, and US forces in Bahrein, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia. Iran would also quickly shut down the Strait of Hormuz.
Actually the plan was to attack Iran AFTER the defeat of Hezbollah in 2006 in July 2006
After the defeat of Israel with 10 times more soldiers and all the latest weaponry , the entire plan went to the waste paper basket.
US felt they will get the same fate.